月论高股息：防御配置价值显现 20260202 摘要 红利股配置价值上升，周期型红利股如石油石化、建材、有色等表现强 劲。精工红利择时模型转为看多，建议关注公用事业、保险、出版等稳 定性高股息板块，以及铁路、公路、环保、大众消费和地产等潜力型高 股息板块。 险资出于现金收益和股息需求，将继续增配红利股，成为确定性主题。 年初分红险保单销售良好，保费流入增加，险资将在长债、成长股和红 利股中趋势性增配红利。 高速公路板块调整幅度较大，龙头企业如招商公路股息率达 4~4.5%， 部分小票超 5%。1 月货运量边际走强，春运旺季人流出行预测良好， 板块景气度上行，资金流入情况良好，推荐龙头企业。 建筑建材行业看好央企重组优化提速背景下低估值企业，中长期看好涂 料和定制板材赛道，推荐兔宝宝。水泥领域看好业绩稳定且具有投资收 益来源的公司，如防水企业雨虹。 建筑建材行业推荐中材国际和四川路桥等国央企或地方国企，其在局部 区域需求景气或出海业务方面具有较高的业绩增长确定性及分红确定性， 股息率约为 5.5%至 6%。 Q&A 近期市场波动较大，春节前后红利股的配置价值如何？ 近期受到海外地缘冲突和美联储主席人选变动的影响 ...

"沃什冲击"后，市场怎么看？20260202 摘要 美联储政策与市场影响：沃什的缩表计划可能导致长端利率上升和流动 性减少，对股票和商品市场构成压力，但实际执行存在不确定性，需关 注其与特朗普政府经济目标的潜在冲突。 黄金的长期投资价值：在全球地缘政治重构和经济低增长、高债务背景 下，黄金作为稳定器和对抗不确定性的工具，长期投资吸引力依然存在， 尤其是在美元霸权衰落和债务压力难以缓解的情况下。 股市牛市基础未变：尽管近期股市波动加剧，但美联储降息通道、美国 财政扩张、中国经济转型升级以及长线资金流入等因素，共同构成 2026 年牛市的基础，短期回调不改长期看好趋势。 有色金属市场展望：短期内有色金属市场可能波动，但工业金属和化工 方向在中后端行情中通常表现出色。市场企稳后，应关注产业趋势清晰 的方向，而非简单避险，并积极配置贵金属。 化工行业周期性机会：化工行业正经历新一轮紧密周期，受供需关系向 好、利率下行和流动性充裕等因素支持，估值有望上行。建议关注细分 龙头企业，如 PTA、涤纶长丝等，以获得更好的配置效果。 Q&A 沃什被提名为美联储主席后，市场对其政策主张的反应如何？ 特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任美联储 ...

近年来，面对严峻复杂的内外部环境，建材行业通过有力措施深挖绿色低碳发展潜力。近日，工业和信 息化部会同国家发展改革委、市场监管总局发布2025年度重点行业能效"领跑者"企业名单，其中，作为 建材行业重要板块的水泥熟料行业，有4家企业入选。 如何在稳增长与降碳减排之间找到平衡点？"零碳"是破解这一矛盾的核心抓手，产业"微循环"则成为实 现零碳目标的关键路径。水泥、陶瓷、玻璃纤维等细分行业纷纷探索零碳工厂、零化石能源工厂等新模 式，绿色低碳技术装备成为行业竞争新焦点。 减排成效显著 "推进绿色低碳转型，是建材行业高质量发展的必然要求和强劲动力。"中国建筑材料联合会党委书记、 会长阎晓峰介绍，近年来，建材行业绿色转型纵深推进，发布了《建材行业开启碳中和新征程——中国 建材行业碳排放报告（2025年）》，宣布中国建材全行业已如期实现碳达峰，正全面迈向碳中和，明确 了清晰的技术实施路径，引发国内外广泛关注。 建材行业一直走在工业领域"双碳"工作前列。数据显示，"十四五"期间，建材行业二氧化碳排放量连续 下降。与2020年相比，预计2025年建材行业二氧化碳排放量下降24.9%，万元增加值能耗下降17.4%， 万元工业增 ...

Market Overview - The professional engineering sector experienced a decline of 3.74% on February 2, with Shenghui Integrated leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included: - *ST Tianlong (300029): Closed at 5.38, up 4.26% with a trading volume of 105,200 shares and a turnover of 58.34 million yuan - Hongsheng Huayuan (601096): Closed at 5.52, up 3.95% with a trading volume of 1,531,900 shares and a turnover of 844 million yuan - Yongfu Co., Ltd. (300712): Closed at 28.79, up 3.08% with a trading volume of 76,500 shares and a turnover of 222 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Shenghui Integrated (603163): Closed at 102.82, down 7.24% with a trading volume of 57,100 shares and a turnover of 59.8 million yuan - Yaxiang Integrated (603929): Closed at 146.90, down 7.20% with a trading volume of 58,300 shares and a turnover of 876 million yuan - China National Materials (600970): Closed at 10.60, down 7.18% with a trading volume of 580,700 shares and a turnover of 630 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The professional engineering sector saw a net outflow of 934 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 641 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Hongsheng Huayuan (601096): Net outflow of 30.68 million yuan from institutional investors - China National Materials (600970): Net inflow of 21.56 million yuan from institutional investors - Roman Co., Ltd. (605289): Net inflow of 13.67 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The cleanroom market is expanding due to increased investment in high-tech industries, benefiting companies like Yaxiang Integration, with related companies including Shenghui Integration and Bocheng Co., Ltd. [3][4] - The real estate market is showing signs of marginal improvement, with significant potential for transformation and development [5] Summary by Sections Cleanroom Industry - The growth in high-tech industry investments is driving the expansion of the cleanroom market, with Micron Technology planning to invest $24 billion in a NAND factory in Singapore over the next decade, which will include 700,000 square feet of cleanroom space [4] - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts a 26.3% increase in the global semiconductor market by 2026, reaching $975 billion, further supporting the cleanroom industry's growth [4] - Yaxiang Integration's parent company reported a consolidated revenue of NT$9.5 billion (approximately RMB 2.1 billion) in December, a year-on-year increase of 165.2% [4] Real Estate Market - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including controlling inventory and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5] - An article published on January 2, 2026, highlighted the importance of managing expectations in the real estate market, which has significant financial asset attributes and broad social implications [5] Recommended Companies - The report recommends Yaxiang Integration for the cleanroom sector, with related companies including Bocheng Co., Ltd. and Shenghui Integration [7] - Other sectors recommended include commercial aerospace, controllable nuclear fusion, and renewable energy, with specific companies highlighted for each sector [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights the top 20 stocks in the S&P China A-Share Dividend Opportunity Index (CSPSADRP) based on their daily and year-to-date performance as of January 30, 2026, showcasing significant price movements and dividend yields [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - China Gold (600916.SH) leads with a daily increase of 8.74% and a year-to-date increase of 80.12%, with a dividend yield of 2.59% [1][5]. - Jian Sheng Group (603558.SH) follows with a daily rise of 4.01% and a year-to-date increase of 6.23%, offering a dividend yield of 4.91% [1][5]. - China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group (601598.SH) shows a daily increase of 3.10% but a year-to-date decline of 1.32%, with a dividend yield of 5.00% [1][5]. Group 2: Dividend Yields - The average dividend yield for the index is reported at 4.76%, with an expected price-to-earnings ratio of 11.07 times [2]. - Notable dividend yields include Semir Apparel (002563.SZ) at 9.12% and China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) at 7.83% [1][5]. Group 3: Market Signals - The article mentions the formation of a MACD golden cross signal, indicating positive momentum for the stocks listed [4][8].

2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究成功费 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 唐猛 A0230523080003 tanqmeng@swsresearch.com 1 月制造业、建筑业 PMI 双降，天气叠加节日 因素投资景气度有所下降 ──申万宏源建筑周报（20260126-20260130） 本期投资后了 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数-1.44%，沪深 300 指 0 数+0.08%，相对收益为-1.52pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为国际 工程 (+0.50%)、专业工程 (+0.11%)、钢结构 (-0.69%)，对应行业 内三个公司：中材国际 (+6.04%)、罗曼股份 (+18.60%)、鸿路钢构 (+5.11%); 年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是专业工程 (+22.53%)、 钢结构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the construction industry, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2026 as it marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the construction PMI stands at 48.8%, down 4.0 percentage points, reflecting a decline in investment sentiment due to weather and holiday factors [3][11]. - The report highlights the government's initiative to foster new growth points in service consumption, encouraging local governments to utilize financial resources and industry funds to enhance infrastructure in tourism and residential areas [11]. - The report identifies key companies with significant profit growth expectations, such as Zhite New Materials, which anticipates a net profit of 160-200 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 117.11%-171.39% [13][14]. Industry Performance - The SW Construction Decoration Index decreased by 1.44%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.08% [3][4]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week included International Engineering (+0.50%) and Professional Engineering (+0.11%), while the Steel Structure sub-industry saw a decline of 0.69% [5][9]. - Year-to-date, the Professional Engineering sub-industry has increased by 22.53%, and the Steel Structure sub-industry by 21.12%, with notable companies like Zhite New Materials showing a staggering increase of 234.08% [5][9]. Key Company Developments - China Aluminum International signed 4,891 contracts in 2025, with a total contract value of 46.836 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 51.94% [13][16]. - Other companies such as Shanghai Construction and Zhengzhong Design are projected to experience varying profit changes, with Shanghai Construction expecting a significant decline in net profit for 2025 [14][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new contract signings and order volumes for key companies to gauge future performance [19].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Upstream Cycle Products**: Benefiting from loose monetary conditions and a bottoming capacity cycle, supply-demand tight balance is driving price increases in sectors like chemicals, black chain, and real estate chain, presenting investment opportunities. Short-term market remains strong with long-term logic supporting this trend, but structural rotation and cost-effectiveness need to be monitored [1][2] Chemical Industry - **Current Situation**: The chemical industry is experiencing a hot market, with public fund holdings in large chemical sectors still underweight. Policies limiting new capacity and negative growth in capital expenditure are restricting supply, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity [4] - **Investment Recommendations**: 1. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Focus on companies with good resource endowments benefiting from high oil prices and potential value assessments [4] 2. **Basic Chemicals**: After a long bottoming process, current price differentials and valuations have safety margins. Key assets benefiting from unexpected demand and marginal changes in dual carbon policies should be monitored [4] 3. **Cyclical Leaders**: Attention should be given to tire companies with overseas expansion potential [4] Coal Sector - **Current Situation**: The coal sector has seen supply contraction and increased overseas demand, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating potential price increases. Many companies are undervalued from a price-to-book (PB) perspective, especially those with high spot market ratios [5][7] - **Investment Logic**: Companies with high spot ratios are expected to benefit significantly from rising coal prices. Recommended companies include Lu'an Huanneng, Jinkong Coal, and Shanmei International [6] Precious Metals - **Market Dynamics**: In the context of global turmoil, physical assets like gold are rising, with ongoing central bank purchases. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining International and Shandong Gold [10] - **Industrial Metals**: Favorable outlook for aluminum and copper, with specific recommendations for China Aluminum and Zijin Mining [10][11] Logistics and Delivery - **SF Holding**: The company shows potential for absolute returns and valuation recovery, with a projected absolute return rate of 3.8% for 2025 and 2026. The company is at a ten-year low in valuation, with significant room for EPS upgrades and PE recovery [12] - **Third-party Delivery**: SF's leading position in the third-party delivery sector is expected to enhance performance through partnerships with major internet companies [12] Insurance Sector - **2026 Outlook**: The insurance sector is expected to perform strongly due to resonance in both asset and liability sides. The demand for dividend insurance is increasing, and the long-term interest rates are stabilizing, enhancing profit elasticity for insurance companies [23][24] Construction Materials - **Investment Opportunities**: Traditional undervalued construction materials like renovation materials, glass, and cement still hold investment value. Recommended companies include Beixin Building Materials and China Liansu [25] Real Estate Sector - **Recent Trends**: The real estate sector has rebounded due to bullish market sentiment and policy expectations. Anticipated easing measures in core cities may lead to a short-term market recovery [26][27] Engineering Machinery - **2026 Prospects**: The engineering machinery sector is expected to see synchronized domestic and international demand growth. Key recommendations include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [29][30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and investment opportunities across various sectors.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the construction industry is at a valuation bottom, combined with a seasonal uptick in spring, recommending "undervalued & well-positioned" large state-owned enterprises [4] - The report highlights a positive trend in new orders for major construction state-owned enterprises, with a notable increase in overseas orders outpacing domestic orders [4] - The cash flow situation is improving due to local government debt management and enhanced cash flow control at the enterprise level [4] - The report suggests that market capitalization management is becoming mainstream, with an emphasis on increasing dividend rates and stabilizing dividend amounts [4] - Investment recommendations include major state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and others based on business performance, valuation, cash flow, and market capitalization management [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction sector is experiencing a recovery with improved order volumes and a focus on core engineering business [4] - The report notes that major state-owned enterprises have shown positive growth in new orders, with overseas orders increasing significantly [4] Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the price-to-book (PB) ratios for leading construction state-owned enterprises have returned to historical lows, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] Cash Flow Management - The report states that the net cash flow from operating activities in the construction industry has improved, indicating better cash flow management practices [4] Market Capitalization Management - The report discusses the trend of increasing dividend payouts among major state-owned enterprises, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as China State Construction, China Railway Construction, and others based on their strong fundamentals and attractive valuations [4]