FF301 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: TCL電子控股有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） 呈交日期: 2026年2月4日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01070 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 3,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 3,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 3,000,000,000 | HKD | | 1 HKD | | 3,000,000,000 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 第 1 頁 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in copper and other raw material prices have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods companies, but historical analysis shows that the negative impact of rising raw material costs on gross margins has gradually diminished, suggesting that these companies can maintain profitability through structural adjustments and cost savings [1][2]. Raw Material Price Impact - Since 2008, the home appliance industry has experienced three significant raw material price increase cycles, with the impact on gross margins decreasing over time: during 2009-2011, the maximum quarterly gross margin decline for leading white goods companies was 5-7 percentage points; in 2016-2017, it was around 5 percentage points; and from 2020-2022, it was about 2 percentage points [2]. - In January 2026, the average monthly closing prices for copper and aluminum on the SHFE showed year-on-year increases of 36.7% and 20.9%, respectively, which are lower than the increases seen from 2020-2022, indicating that the current raw material cost increase may have a lesser impact on white goods companies [2]. Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.1%, with a cumulative decline of 5.0% for January-February [3]. - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous year, with air conditioners down 31.6%, refrigerators down 17.0%, and washing machines down 3.2% [3]. - The impact of the Spring Festival timing has put pressure on production, but cumulative growth rates have shown slight improvement, and demand is expected to stabilize due to the effects of national subsidy policies [3]. Retail Market Performance - In 2025, the retail scale of China's home appliance market was 893.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, with specific categories like air conditioners and refrigerators experiencing declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively [4]. - Small home appliances performed relatively well, with an overall retail growth of 3.8%, indicating resilience in this segment despite the overall market downturn [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Technology, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as in black goods and small appliances [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent increases in raw material prices, particularly copper and aluminum, have raised concerns about the profitability of leading white goods companies, but historical data suggests that the negative impact on gross margins may diminish over time [1][2] Group 1: Raw Material Price Impact - Since 2008, the home appliance industry has experienced three significant raw material price increase cycles, with the impact on gross margins decreasing over time: the highest quarterly gross margin decline was 5-7 percentage points during 2009-2011, around 5 percentage points in 2016-2017, and approximately 2 percentage points from 2020-2022 [1] - In January 2026, copper and aluminum prices increased by 36.7% and 20.9% year-on-year, respectively, which is lower than the increases seen from 2020-2022, suggesting that the current raw material cost impact on white goods companies may be less severe [2] Group 2: Production and Demand Trends - In February, the total production of white goods in China reached 23.79 million units, a 22.1% decrease compared to the same period last year, with a projected 5.0% decline for January-February combined [3] - The production performance of white goods has shown signs of recovery, with the impact of the Spring Festival timing affecting February production, but cumulative growth for January-February has slightly improved [3] Group 3: Retail Market Performance - In 2025, the retail scale of China's home appliance market is expected to decline by 4.3% year-on-year to 893.1 billion yuan, with specific categories like air conditioners and refrigerators experiencing declines of 0.4% and 11.5%, respectively [4] - Small home appliances are expected to perform better, with an overall retail growth of 3.8%, indicating a relative resilience compared to larger appliances [4] Group 4: Key Data Tracking - In January, the home appliance sector experienced a relative return of -2.6%, with raw material prices for copper and aluminum increasing by 7.8% and 4.8% month-on-month, respectively [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the white goods sector include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, while TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual are recommended in the black goods sector [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical positioning of silver indicators, noting that 93% of historical dates are below 200%, while the current level exceeds 1800%, indicating potential price adjustments during the decline phase of silver [11] - It highlights the macroeconomic narratives, including geopolitical tensions and the impact of the new Federal Reserve chair, suggesting that the current market is less influenced by overseas factors [3][12] - The investment strategy focuses on three main areas: core growth assets, global competitive advantages, and emerging growth sectors, with specific recommendations for companies in these categories [14] Company Summaries TCL Electronics (01070) - TCL Electronics is forming a joint venture with Sony, where TCL will hold 51% and Sony 49%, aiming to leverage cost and technology advantages in the large-size and mini LED sectors [15] - The joint venture is expected to enhance TCL's high-end product series capabilities [15] Mao Geping (01318) - The brand is expanding its global presence with a new store in Hong Kong and a focus on integrating Eastern aesthetics with modern art, enhancing its international brand narrative [16] Anjuke Food (603345) - The company is shifting from a reliance on large B2B clients to a selective supermarket customization strategy, collaborating with major retailers to launch tailored products, resulting in a 28.1% year-on-year revenue increase in the supermarket channel [17] Chengda Pharmaceutical (301201) - Chengda is transitioning towards biocell therapy, developing innovative drug pipelines and forming strategic partnerships, including a significant collaboration with Chiron Pharma, which has led to clinical advancements [19] Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179) - The company has established strong partnerships with major domestic truck manufacturers and is focused on expanding its automotive component offerings, leveraging over 20 years of industry experience [20] Jianghuai Automobile (600418) - Jianghuai is developing a new generation of high-end intelligent electric vehicles, integrating advanced technologies from partnerships with high-tech companies like Huawei [21] Chip Origin (688521) - The company reported significant growth in its chip design and mass production businesses, with a 290.82% quarter-on-quarter increase in design revenue and a 132.77% increase in mass production revenue [22] Tencent Holdings (00700) - Tencent's performance exceeded expectations with a 15.4% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by strong sales and R&D efficiency, leading to a notable increase in net profit [23] China Resources Land (01109) - The company is transitioning its real estate service platform to offer comprehensive lifecycle services, enhancing customer engagement through a new digital platform [24] China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) - The company is benefiting from rising oil shipping rates, with Q4 2025 VLCC average rates reaching $94,000 per day, marking a significant increase in operational profits [26]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Electronics has seen a stock increase of over 5%, attributed to a strategic partnership with Sony to establish a joint venture focused on home entertainment business, which is expected to enhance both companies' market presence globally [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - TCL Electronics announced a strategic cooperation memorandum with Sony to establish a joint venture, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [1] - The joint venture will operate globally, covering product development, design, manufacturing, sales, logistics, and customer service for products including televisions and home audio systems [1] - Guosen Securities indicated that this collaboration is likely to achieve complementary advantages and accelerate the development of both companies' television businesses in overseas markets [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - TCL Electronics projected an adjusted net profit for the fiscal year 2025 to be between 2.33 billion to 2.57 billion HKD, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 45% to 60% [1] - Tianfeng Securities views TCL Electronics as a leading player in the global television industry, with ongoing improvements in mid-to-high-end and global operational capabilities driving steady market share expansion [1] - The company is also strengthening growth drivers outside its main business areas, including solar energy, comprehensive marketing, and internet services [1] - The earnings announcement exceeded expectations, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 estimated at 2.47 billion, 2.88 billion, and 3.45 billion HKD respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - TCL Electronics has seen a stock increase of over 5% following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Sony to establish a joint venture focused on home entertainment products [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - TCL Electronics and Sony have signed a memorandum of understanding to create a joint venture, with TCL holding 51% and Sony 49% [1] - The joint venture will operate globally, covering product development, design, manufacturing, sales, logistics, and customer service for products including televisions and home audio systems [1] - This collaboration is expected to leverage the strengths of both companies, accelerating their television business growth in overseas markets [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - TCL Electronics anticipates an adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 2.33 billion to HKD 2.57 billion for the fiscal year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 45% to 60% [1] - Tianfeng Securities highlights TCL Electronics as a leading player in the global television industry, with ongoing improvements in mid-to-high-end and global operational capabilities driving steady market share expansion [1] - The company is also strengthening growth drivers outside its main business areas, including solar energy, comprehensive marketing, and internet services [1] - Due to better-than-expected earnings announcements, projections for adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 are HKD 2.47 billion, HKD 2.88 billion, and HKD 3.45 billion, respectively [1]

Group 1 - The home appliance sector experienced a decline, with the SW home appliance index dropping by 0.68% as of January 28, 2026, and the current industry P/E ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) standing at 15.60 times [3][22] - Major home appliance companies have begun to raise prices due to increased costs from rising metal raw material prices and memory chips, alongside the reduction of national subsidies [3][22] - Midea implemented a tiered price increase strategy in early January, raising prices by 2% on January 3 and an additional 4% on January 5, with online retail prices for air conditioners increasing by 5.7% compared to December 2025 [3][22] Group 2 - National subsidies for home appliances are set to decline, but large appliances will continue to benefit from subsidies in 2026, including refrigerators, washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, computers, and water heaters [4][23] - The retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw significant year-on-year declines in October, November, and December 2025, with decreases of 14.6%, 19.4%, and 18.7% respectively [4][23] - The production of domestic air conditioners in early 2026 is projected to decline by 14.8% in January-February and 5.7% in March compared to the same period last year [4][23] Group 3 - European countries are increasing the promotion of heat pumps, with exports reaching a historical high of 1.62 billion yuan in December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [5][20] - The heat pump market in Europe is expected to improve, driven by the restoration or enhancement of subsidy policies, with a penetration rate of only 12% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [5][24] - The promotion of heat pump heating is a key strategy for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, which is expected to sustain the improvement of exports from China [5][24] Group 4 - TCL is set to acquire Sony's television business, forming a joint venture where TCL will hold 51% and Sony 49%, with the final agreement expected by the end of March 2026 [6][21] - TCL's adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 2.33 billion and 2.57 billion Hong Kong dollars, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45-60% [6][21] - The merger is anticipated to increase TCL and Sony's combined market share to 16.7% by 2027, potentially surpassing Samsung's projected market share of 16.2% [6][21]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 布局消费反转！ 大消费组二月消费金股 研究部/消费品 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4.3 4.6 25.0 相对表现 3.1 -8.7 1.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 消费品 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商证券 1 月港股消费观察： 外卖反垄断如何影响港股消费股前 景？》2026-01-27 2、《大消费组一月消费金股—双节 消费亮点前瞻》2026-01-06 ❑ 轻纺 杨蕊菁：看好家居板块修复以及倍加洁益生菌业务发展 风险提示：消费下行风险，消费复苏疲软风险、宏观经济变动风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 1216 | 23.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 17628.3 | 15.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 16321.4 | 15.9 | 行业指数 3、《招商证券 12 月港股消费观察— 1-2 月流动性改善后港股消费买什 么？》2025 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector is experiencing a rise, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513230) increasing by nearly 1.5% [1] - Notable gainers include TCL Electronics, WH Group, Zhenjiu Lidu, Pop Mart, Midea Group (000333), KANAT Optical, and Gu Ming, while major decliners include Weilong Delicious, Smoore International, Little Garden, Uni-President China, and Giant Bio [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued a special activity plan for the 2026 "Happy New Spring" Spring Festival, encouraging increased subsidies for trade-in programs and support for offline retail [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports that Moutai's sales price has exceeded expectations, with price increases for Flying Moutai, vintage wines, and zodiac wines, indicating strong channel sales [1] - The white liquor sector is viewed as having a significant investment opportunity, with current valuations at historical lows, suggesting strong bottom-fishing value [1] - The report highlights the potential for consumption policies to catalyze growth in the white liquor sector around the Spring Festival [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the home appliance industry, specifically the performance of major appliance segments including white goods, black goods, kitchen appliances, and small appliances [1][2][5]. Core Insights - **Fund Holdings in Home Appliances**: In Q4 2025, the proportion of actively managed equity funds holding home appliances increased, but it remains at a historically low level [1][3]. - **White Goods Performance**: The proportion of funds invested in white goods has seen a recovery, with a notable increase in the number of funds holding these stocks [5]. The market anticipates a continuation of national subsidies in 2026, which is expected to support domestic demand [5]. - **Black Goods Stability**: The proportion of funds in black goods remained stable, attributed to significant pressure on domestic sales due to the depletion of demand from previous subsidies [6][7]. - **Diverse Segment Performance**: Kitchen appliances, small appliances, and lighting segments are experiencing varied levels of attention, with some remaining underweight due to weak demand in the real estate sector [8]. Financial Metrics - **Fund Holdings Data**: - In Q4 2025, the proportion of actively managed equity funds in home appliances was 2.05%, up by 0.11 percentage points from the previous quarter [5]. - The allocation to white goods was 1.58%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points, with a significant rise in the number of funds holding these stocks [5]. - The underweight status for kitchen appliances, small appliances, and lighting was noted, with respective allocations of 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.02% [8]. Future Outlook - **Market Expectations**: The outlook for leading home appliance companies is positive, with expectations of steady growth in performance [2][5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - Focus on leading white goods companies that are expected to benefit from continued national subsidies in 2026 [8]. - Consider companies with manufacturing and brand advantages in overseas markets, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and TCL Electronics [8]. - Opportunities in MiniLED technology and commercial cold chain sectors are highlighted, with specific companies like Hisense and TCL leading in these areas [8][9]. Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include geopolitical trade risks, intensified industry competition, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, and the possibility of market demand recovery falling short of expectations [11].