Investment Highlights - Precious metals: Gold has reached a new historical high, with continued recommendations for investment. Recent weak economic data from the US has led to a decline in the dollar index, and gold is poised for an upward trend as it prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Even if the meeting outcomes align with expectations, there is no need to rush to take profits, as the market is likely shifting from recession trading to stagflation trading, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [2][3] - Copper: If interest rate cuts can facilitate a soft landing, copper prices may rise. LME copper has surpassed $10,000. Despite a weakening US economy, the market appears to be pricing in future stagflation or soft landing scenarios, leading to an upward trend in copper prices. With the domestic consumption peak approaching and downstream operating rates expected to improve, copper prices are likely to rise [2][3] - Aluminum: Continued optimism for rising aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, driven by significant improvements in downstream operating rates, which have risen to 62.1%. Although the real estate sector remains sluggish, demand from the renewable energy sector is providing effective support. The mid-term impact of US aluminum tariffs is expected to be limited, and the long-term outlook for electrolytic aluminum remains positive [3] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt intermediates continue to rise, with attention on the dynamics of electrolytic cobalt and policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Cobalt product prices have increased, with weekly growth rates of 4.55% for cobalt sulfate and 2.06% for electrolytic cobalt. The market anticipates further supply constraints due to upcoming policy changes in the DRC, which could drive prices higher [3] - Tin: Price increases driven by interest rate cut expectations and supply shortages. Tin prices rose by 2.70%, with operating rates for refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces dropping to 28.48%. Supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material shortages and seasonal maintenance [4] - Lithium: Prices under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan at the Jiangxi mine. Lithium prices have declined, primarily due to market expectations surrounding the resumption of production. However, supply growth is expected to slow, and demand from the energy storage sector remains strong, indicating a potential improvement in the carbonated lithium supply-demand balance [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt, Zhongtung High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shenhuo Co., and Yun Aluminum [5]

2016-2025年1-4月河南省工业企业数统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市公司：焦作万方（000612），神火股份（000933），豫光金铅（600531），中孚实业（600595）， 明泰铝业（601677），郑州煤电（600121），双汇发展（000895），千味央厨（001215），三全食品 （002216），新乡化纤（000949），神马股份（600810），国机精工（002046），恒星科技 （002132），宇通客车（600066），中原高速（600020），新开普（300248） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国工业云行业市场深度评估及投资机会预测报告》 2025年1-4月，河南省工业企业数（以下数据涉及的工业企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起， 规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that CATL has successfully certified its sodium-ion battery under new national standards, making it the first in the world to achieve this certification [1] - The sodium-ion battery is currently being developed and implemented for passenger vehicles, with progress reported as smooth [1] - The certification allows the sodium-ion battery to enter both domestic and international markets for energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles, addressing previous limitations due to the lack of national standards [1] Group 2 - There are 17 stocks in the A-share market related to sodium-ion battery concepts, primarily consisting of small and mid-cap stocks [1] - Among these, CATL has a total market capitalization of 1.63 trillion yuan, while only three other companies exceed 50 billion yuan in market capitalization: Guoxuan High-Tech, Great Wall Motors, and Xinwangda [1] - In the first half of the year, nine sodium-ion battery concept stocks reported profits exceeding 100 million yuan, with CATL leading at 30.485 billion yuan, followed by Shenhuo Co., Xinwangda, and Huayang Co. [1]

Core Insights - CATL's sodium-ion battery has received certification under new national standards, marking it as the first sodium-ion battery globally to achieve this certification [1] - The sodium-ion battery has a lower energy density compared to lithium-ion batteries but offers advantages in low-temperature performance, carbon footprint, and safety [1] - The battery's energy density is 175Wh/kg, with a cycle life exceeding 3000 cycles and a discharge efficiency of over 85% at -20°C [1] - The certification allows the sodium-ion battery to enter domestic and international energy storage and low-speed electric vehicle markets, addressing previous application limitations due to the lack of standards [1] - The Chinese sodium-ion battery market is projected to see significant growth, with shipments expected to exceed 1.5GWh in 2024 and 7GWh in 2025, reaching over 200GWh by 2030 [2] Company Developments - CATL is actively developing its sodium-ion battery for passenger vehicles, with progress reported as smooth [1] - Other companies in the sodium-ion battery sector include Guoxuan High-Tech, which has established a research center with Fudan University focusing on sodium-ion battery technology [3] - Xinwanda has launched ultra-low temperature sodium-ion batteries that meet the needs of various electric vehicle applications [3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, CATL reported a net profit of 30.485 billion yuan, reflecting a 33.33% year-on-year increase [6] - Shenhuo Co. achieved revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, a 12.12% increase, but its net profit decreased by 16.62% due to falling coal sales [4] - Other notable companies include Haopeng Technology, which saw a net profit increase of 252.49%, and Guoxuan High-Tech, with a net profit growth exceeding 30% [4]

宁德时代钠新电池通过新国标认证。 9月15日晚间，宁德时代(300750)在投资者互动平台表示，钠离子电池能量密度比锂离子电池略低，但低温性能、碳足迹、安 全性能均更有优势，相关优势有助推动电池产业有效降低对锂资源的依赖。 公司于4月发布钠新电池，钠新乘用车动力电池拥有优异的低温能量保持率与安全表现，9月初公司钠新电池已通过新国标认 证，成为全球首款通过新国标认证的钠离子电池。目前，公司钠新乘用车动力电池正在与客户推进开发、落地中，进展顺 利。 据悉，宁德时代钠新电池能量密度达175Wh/kg，循环寿命超3000次，低温-20℃放电效率保持85%以上。太平洋证券指出，该 电池通过认证后可合规进入国内外储能及低速电动车市场，解决钠电池此前因无国标导致的应用受限问题，加速钠离子电池 产业化落地。 近年来，钠离子电池受到政策方面的大力支持。2025年2月，工信部、发展改革委等八部门联合印发《新型储能制造业高质量 发展行动方案》，其中明确"推动大规模钠电池储能系统集成及应用技术攻关，服务新型电力系统建设"。 豪鹏科技2025年上半年实现营收27.63亿元，同比增长19.29%；归母净利润0.97亿元，同比增长252. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong performance of precious metals, particularly gold, which has reached a historical high. The expectation is for a shift from recession trading to stagflation trading, suggesting a potential slow bull market for gold [5] - Copper prices are expected to rise if interest rate cuts lead to a soft landing for the economy. The current market sentiment is pricing in stagflation or soft landing scenarios, with domestic consumption expected to increase as the peak season approaches [6] - Aluminum prices are also projected to rise due to increased downstream operating rates during the traditional peak season, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6] - Cobalt prices are on the rise, driven by strong demand and supply constraints, particularly with upcoming policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7] - Tin prices have increased due to supply shortages, with production rates in key provinces remaining low [7] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan for a key mining area, although long-term demand remains strong [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6795.38, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3725.17 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price increases: Copper up 1.49%, Aluminum up 2.80%, Zinc up 3.10%, Lead up 2.07%, and Tin up 2.70%. Precious metals also saw gains, with Gold up 0.46% and Silver up 3.20% [22] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventory changes: Copper increased by 7945 tons, Zinc increased by 2724 tons, while Lead decreased by 4085 tons [30]

Core Insights - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index has decreased by 0.25% as of September 15, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The Cash Flow 500 ETF (560120) has dropped by 0.18%, currently priced at 1.11 yuan [1] - The market sentiment remains positive, supported by strong policies, industrial catalysts, easing overseas monetary policies, and new capital inflows, indicating a clear long-term trend for A-shares [1] Index Performance - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index selects 50 listed companies with high free cash flow rates from the CSI 500 Index to reflect the overall performance of companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities [1] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 44.96% of the index [1] Top Weighted Stocks - The top ten stocks by weight in the index include: - China International Marine Containers (CIMC) - weight: 2.58%, change: -0.87% [2] - Zhejiang Longsheng - weight: 2.33%, change: 0.00% [2] - Yuntianhua - weight: 1.93%, change: -0.81% [2] - Shougang Group - weight: 1.63%, change: -2.67% [2] - Xijie Airlines - weight: 1.42%, change: 0.46% [2] - Western Mining - weight: 1.38%, change: -0.49% [2] - Shenhuo Group - weight: 1.37%, change: -0.50% [2] - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals - weight: 1.19%, change: -0.50% [2] - Yongtai Energy - weight: 1.18%, change: 2.68% [2] - Compass - weight: 1.08%, change: 2.10% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a weekly increase of 3.76%, ranking it among the top sectors [15]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from the ongoing inflation trend and a weakening labor market, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts continuing [4][46]. - The market is beginning to price in the liquidity easing from the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to a slight improvement in downstream demand as the peak season approaches [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.24 percentage points, with significant gains across all sub-sectors [15]. - Precious metals saw a 5.13% increase, energy metals rose by 1.35%, industrial metals increased by 4.10%, small metals by 4.39%, and new materials by 2.45% [15]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of September 12, LME copper closed at $10,068 per ton, up 1.72% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at ¥81,060 per ton, up 1.15% [2]. Supply tightness is expected due to large-scale maintenance in domestic smelting plants [2][32]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,701 per ton, up 3.78%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,120 per ton, up 2.05% [3]. The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remains stable at 44.085 million tons [38]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,956 per ton, up 3.45%, while SHFE zinc was at ¥22,305 per ton, up 0.68% [40]. Inventory levels showed mixed trends, with LME stocks decreasing and SHFE stocks increasing [40]. - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $34,955 per ton, up 2.07%, and SHFE tin at ¥273,950 per ton, up 0.55% [43]. Supply recovery from Myanmar is slower than expected [43]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,680.70 per ounce, up 1.12%, and SHFE gold at ¥834.22 per gram, up 2.28% [4][46]. The inflation trend continues to rise while labor market data shows weakness, supporting the outlook for gold [4][47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, which will support the price of gold [11]. - Supply disruptions in copper and the upcoming demand season are anticipated to strengthen copper prices [11]. - The aluminum industry shows signs of demand recovery, with expectations of price stability [11]. - Tin supply tightness is expected to support tin prices [11]. - Antimony prices are projected to remain weak in the short term but may strengthen in the long term due to supply constraints [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 15.1%, 3-month increase of 35.2%, and a 12-month increase of 82.4% [3]. 2. Precious Metals Market Data - Gold prices reached $3651.10 per ounce, up by $56.55 (1.57%) from September 5 [4]. - Silver prices increased to $42.26 per ounce, up by $1.52 (3.72%) from September 5 [4]. 3. Copper and Aluminum Data - LME copper closed at $10068 per ton, up by $121 (1.22%) from September 5 [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices rose to 21050 RMB per ton, an increase of 370 RMB from September 5 [9]. 4. Tin and Antimony Data - Domestic refined tin prices increased to 274570 RMB per ton, up by 2710 RMB (1.00%) from September 5 [10]. - Antimony prices decreased to 176500 RMB per ton, down by 1000 RMB (0.56%) from September 5 [11]. 5. Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [12]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [12]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co. and Yunnan Aluminum [12]. - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Xiyang Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Core Viewpoint - The coal supply-demand fundamentals are expected to improve due to the "check overproduction" policy leading to reduced output and the anticipated recovery in non-electric coal demand during the "golden September and silver October" peak season, providing upward price elasticity for both types of coal [1][3]. Group 1: Coal Price Dynamics - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with expectations for prices to rebound to long-term contract prices, recently surpassing the second target price of around 700 CNY per ton [2]. - The current adjustment in prices is attributed to the seasonal transition from summer to autumn, which has weakened coal consumption, but the upcoming peak season is expected to drive prices up again, particularly in the chemical sector [2][3]. - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY for different levels of market performance [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The coal sector exhibits dual attributes of cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, with many coal companies maintaining high dividend yields despite overall profit pressures [3]. - Six listed coal companies have announced interim dividend plans totaling 24.13 billion CNY, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - Key coal stocks benefiting from these trends include: - Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源, 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 - Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [3].