——2026 年 1 月信用利差月报 作者 分析师 姚宇彤 2026 年 2 月 9 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 配置盘支撑下，1 月信用利差全线收窄 2026 年 1 月，债市整体偏强震荡：年初至中旬股市和商品市场表现强劲， 对债市形成压制；下旬，受获利盘出逃、融资保证金升高等因素影响，权益 市场情绪降温，加之公募基金费率新规正式稿温和落地，缓解债基赎回担忧， 以及央行结构性货币政策工具降息、配置型机构大力买入等因素支撑，债市 呈现修复行情。由于信用债相对利率债更具票息优势，银行、保险"开门红" 增加信用债配置需求，以及摊余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债，1 月 信用债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。 核心观点 ·· 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 部门执行总监 于丽峰 部门执行总监 冯琳 1 月，债券市场整体偏强震荡，在信用债相对利率债更具票息 优势，银行、保险"开门红"增加信用债配置需求，以及摊 余债基集中开放期投资偏好转向信用债等因素带动下，信用 债表现好于利率债，信用利差全线收窄。目前，短久期信用 债利差普遍已压缩至历史低位，中长久期部分品种仍有一定 的利差空间，且考虑到摊余债基开放对 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pulp and Paper, Real Estate, Metal Cans, New Consumption, Tobacco, Personal Care, AI Applications, Pet Industry - **Key Trends**: Positive cyclical expectations, price increases in pulp, recovery in real estate transactions, and growth in various consumer sectors Key Points Pulp and Paper Industry - **Price Increases**: March pulp prices continue to rise strongly, with Suzano reporting an increase of $20 per ton in China [1] - **Supply Chain Issues**: Indonesia's revocation of forestry licenses affects the supply of hardwood pulp chips, compounded by APP's announcement of delays in the second phase of OKI production [1] - **Investment Recommendations**: Continued recommendations for companies such as Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and Xianhe, with a focus on potential growth in the sector [1] Real Estate Sector - **Market Recovery**: Improvement in second-hand housing transactions, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a narrowing decline in housing prices across 70 cities [1] - **Top Picks**: Recommended companies include Kuka, Hanhai, with expectations for recovery in brands like Gongniu, Oppein, and others [1] Metal Can Industry - **Aluminum Price Adjustment**: Recent pullback in aluminum prices is beneficial for profit release, with a bottom recommendation for Aorikin and attention on Baosteel and Shengxing [1] New Consumption Sector - **Core Products**: Many core products have entered the layout phase, with various brands launching new items and maintaining high store traffic during the Spring Festival [2] - **Tobacco Market**: British American Tobacco reports rapid market share growth in Poland, with a recommendation for Smoore as a core stock [2] - **Personal Care Growth**: Brands like Leshushi and Baia are experiencing significant growth, with new product launches and marketing strategies enhancing their market positions [2] AI Applications - **Smart Glasses Sales**: Kangnait's smart glasses are projected to exceed 7 million units in sales for the year, with ongoing attention to order progress [2] - **Acquisition Plans**: Yudong plans to acquire 51% of Huayan Technology, extending its reach into precision components and AI glasses [2] Pet Industry - **Market Recovery**: The pet industry saw a recovery in January with an overall growth of 18%, with specific brands like Guibao and Zhongchong showing significant increases [3] Cross-Border Trade - **Tariff Changes**: Recent tariff adjustments are favorable, with a 5% reduction in the overall tax rate benefiting cross-border enterprises, particularly focusing on companies like Zhiou and Henglin [3]

Group 1 - During the Spring Festival, overseas precious metals and crude oil prices collectively rose, with spot gold touching $5200 per ounce and WTI crude oil futures for March contracts increasing by 1.9%, while Brent crude oil futures for April contracts rose by 1.86% [1] - The current oil market is driven by geopolitical risks rather than supply and demand, with expectations of high volatility in prices over the next month due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran [1] - Companies with oil and gas resources and those in the offshore oil and gas service engineering sector are recommended for attention as they may benefit from the high industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Free Cash Flow Index (932365) include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Gree Electric Appliances, SAIC Motor, China Aluminum, COSCO Shipping Holdings, TCL Technology, Muyuan Foods, Silver Nonferrous Metals, Baosteel, and Chint Group, collectively accounting for 51.19% of the index [2]

万兆网络织就。当前，我国5G-A的网络布局建设已全面铺开。根据工信部及地方政府相关统计，2025 年全国已有超过300个城市迈入5G-A时代，用户规模突破1000万。在这场网络升级浪潮中，三大运营商 协同发力、各展其长。中国移动部署三载波聚合基站超5万站、RedCap基站超60万站，实现330多个城 市的5G-A覆盖；中国联通2025年启动5G-A推进计划，率先在39个重点城市主城区实现连续覆盖，并逐 当2026年央视春晚以气势磅礴的马蹄声揭开序幕，一张由5G-A技术织就的隐形网络，正在其背后悄然 发力。巨屏上流动的光影马群，每一帧跃动都经由5G-A超高速率实时渲染；五大会场间无缝转换，是 5G-A低时延特性消融空间阻隔……从超高清直播，到跨域联动、虚实融合，5G-A以其独有的优势，为 亿万观众带来兼具艺术质感与科技温度的流畅享受。 聚光灯下，三大硬核技术令春晚帧帧丝滑 作为5G迈向6G的关键过渡技术，5G-A带来了速率与时延的全方位升级，为马年春晚提供了坚实的网络 通信保障。通过上行超宽带、宽带实时交互、通感一体等技术，5G-A确保了直播盛宴的流畅度与高可 靠性，让春晚无延时、零卡顿流畅呈现。 上行超宽带为 ...

自由现金流ETF紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数，国证自由现金流指数反映沪深北交易所自由现金流水平 较高且稳定性较好的上市公司证券价格变化情况。截至2026年1月30日，国证自由现金流指数(980092) 前十大权重股分别为中国海油、格力电器、上汽集团、中国铝业、中远海控、潍柴动力、白银有色、宝 钢股份、正泰电器、长城汽车，前十大权重股合计占比50.3%。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特 定推荐之意） 自由现金流ETF(159201)，场外联接(华夏国证自由现金流ETF发起式联接A：023917；华夏国证自由现 金流ETF发起式联接C：023918)。费率方面，自由现金流ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%，费 率在可比基金中最低。 从资金净流入方面来看，自由现金流ETF近9天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"17.32亿元，日均净流 入达1.92亿元。份额方面，自由现金流ETF最新份额达106.27亿份，最新规模达138.39亿元。杠杆资金 持续布局中。自由现金流ETF最新融资买入额达3788.03万元，最新融资余额达1.75亿元。 从收益能力看，截至2026年2月13日，自由现金流ETF自成立以来， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry is set to complete its ultra-low emission transformation by the end of 2025, with over 80% of crude steel capacity achieving ultra-low emissions [1] Group 1: Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Energy Efficiency Benchmarking in the Steel Industry," launched at the end of 2022, has become a key initiative for energy conservation, carbon reduction, and cost efficiency [1] - Energy consumption in blast furnaces and converters of 143 cultivated enterprises decreased by 2.5% and 12.2% respectively in 2023, resulting in a cumulative energy saving of 13.2 million tons of standard coal and a reduction of 34 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions over two years [1] Group 2: Low-Carbon Development Initiatives - The capability for green and low-carbon development in the Chinese steel industry is continuously improving, with several cutting-edge low-carbon metallurgy technology demonstration projects being implemented, such as the Baowu Hydrogen Carbon Cycle Oxygen Blast Furnace commercial demonstration project and the Zhanjiang Steel near-zero carbon plant [1] - China has entered the world's leading group in the innovation and application of low-carbon metallurgy technology [1]

Core Insights - India has acknowledged the necessity of purchasing Chinese equipment to replace its manufacturing capabilities, particularly in the power sector, due to a projected 40% supply gap in transformers and reactors over the next three years [1][4][10] - The Indian government has begun to relax restrictions on purchasing Chinese equipment, allowing state-owned power and coal companies to procure essential equipment without government approval, opening a market worth approximately $700 billion to $750 billion [4][11] - The global transformer shortage reflects a broader crisis, with delivery times in the U.S. increasing from 50 weeks to 127 weeks, and prices for transformers rising significantly since 2020 [5][7] Group 1: India's Power Sector Challenges - India's internal assessments reveal a structural supply gap of 40% for core equipment in transmission projects, exacerbated by delays in domestic manufacturing [4][10] - The largest state-owned power equipment manufacturer, BHEL, is experiencing extended delivery times, with project delays becoming commonplace [4][10] - Attempts to source equipment from Europe and the U.S. have been unsuccessful due to high prices and insufficient capacity [4] Group 2: Global Transformer Market Dynamics - The global transformer market is facing severe shortages, with aging infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe contributing to increased demand and longer delivery times [5][7] - The price index for global power transformers has surged by 1.5 times since 2020, with some models reaching 2.6 times their pre-pandemic prices [5] - The demand for transformers is driven by the renewable energy revolution and the exponential growth in electricity consumption from AI data centers [5] Group 3: China's Dominance in Transformer Production - China is the leading supplier in the global transformer market, accounting for over 60% of production capacity and achieving a record export value of 64.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 36% increase from the previous year [7][9] - Chinese manufacturers have developed a complete and efficient transformer production system, with significant advancements in technology and production capabilities [7][9] - The ability of Chinese companies to deliver customized products in a much shorter timeframe compared to U.S. suppliers positions them favorably in the global market [7][9] Group 4: Broader Implications for Global Trade - China's role as a stable supplier in the global power infrastructure market may enhance its bargaining power in trade negotiations [11][12] - India's decision to relax restrictions on Chinese equipment procurement could set a precedent for other developing countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa [11][12] - The easing of restrictions reflects a victory of market forces over political barriers, indicating a shift in India's approach to its energy and manufacturing needs [12]

Group 1 - The Russian steel industry has a historical significance, having produced 431 million tons of steel in 1913 and becoming a major military supplier during World War II, producing 110,000 tanks and 29,000 bombers [1] - After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia remains the largest steel producer in Europe and the world's top exporter of pig iron and ferroalloys, with steel exports accounting for 40% to 50% of total production, stabilizing between 25 million to 31 million tons annually [3] - Russia's steel industry benefits from the world's largest iron ore reserves and the second-largest coal reserves, with major steel companies having a self-sufficiency rate of 100% for iron ore and coal, contrasting with China's major steel firms that have only about 10% self-sufficiency [3] Group 2 - The strategic focus of Russian steel companies has shifted towards international markets due to limited domestic demand, producing low-value steel products domestically while high-value products are manufactured for mature markets in Europe and the U.S. [3] - Technological innovation in the Russian steel industry is notable, with advanced techniques enhancing steel quality, supported by rich mineral resources [3] - The high-quality steel products from Russia have become significant suppliers for Europe and the U.S., reflecting the global influence of the Russian steel industry beyond being a mere industrial symbol [5]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of China's 3200 MPa super steel marks a significant technological breakthrough, challenging Western dominance in high-end steel production and reshaping the global steel industry landscape [1][3][16]. Group 1: Technological Breakthrough - China's new super steel has a strength of 3200 MPa, which is four times stronger than the US military's HSLA-115 steel, previously considered a benchmark [3][5]. - The development of this steel represents a shift from traditional methods to innovative techniques, allowing for a significant increase in strength without the need for costly processes [11][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The introduction of 3200 MPa steel has disrupted the market, allowing Chinese companies to replace imports and gain competitive advantages over Western suppliers [18][21]. - China's steel industry has seen a surge in new product sales, reaching 290,000 tons in 2023, indicating a shift in the global supply chain dynamics [18][20]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The advancements in steel technology enable China to enhance its military and industrial capabilities, potentially altering the balance of power in global defense and manufacturing sectors [16][21]. - Western companies, such as ArcelorMittal, are facing challenges as their traditional patent protections become less effective against China's innovative approaches [23].

每经AI快讯，记者日前从中国钢铁工业协会获悉，截至2025年底，我国钢铁行业超低排放改造工程圆 满收官，80%以上粗钢产能实现超低排放。据中国钢铁工业协会会长赵民革介绍，2022年底启动的"钢 铁行业能效标杆三年行动"成为节能降碳与降本增效的核心抓手，143家培育企业高炉、转炉能耗比2023 年分别下降2.5%、12.2%，两个工序两年累计节能1320万吨标煤，减排二氧化碳3400万吨。此外，我国 钢铁行业绿色低碳发展能力不断跃升。宝武富氢碳循环氧气高炉商业示范项目、湛江钢铁近零碳工厂、 中国钢研纯氢竖炉示范线等前沿低碳冶金技术示范项目相继落地，我国低碳冶金技术创新应用进入世界 第一方阵。 (央视新闻) ...