化工品涨价潮持续蔓延，消息面上，2月25日，巴斯夫宣布，从即日起，或根据合同条款允许的情况， 巴斯夫上调东盟地区MDI产品价格，涨幅为200美元/吨。此次价格调整主要由于原材料成本持续上涨所 致。此外，主流氨纶企业今天氨纶价格均上调了1000元每吨，氯虫苯甲氨酰（康宽）提价23500元，K 胺（氯虫苯甲氨酰中间体）提价10000元。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前 十大权重股合计占比44.82%。 化工ETF(159870)，场外联接(接A：014942；C：014943；I：022792)。 中泰证券指出，全球MDI供需格局正边际向好，2026—2027年预计出现65—107万吨供给缺口，叠加海 外高成本产能持续退出，行业价格中枢有望逐步上行。 截至2026年2月26日 13:06，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)上涨0.48%，成分股盐湖股份上涨 8.40%，蓝晓科技上涨6.23%，博源化工上涨3.97%，中简科技上涨3.62%，藏格 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求超预期，开启26-27年向上新周期 ——碳酸锂专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年2月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要 注：全文的"预计"若无特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所预测 ◆ 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2。中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨， 新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年 303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐湖新增8.4万吨（麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措）、国 内矿山6.6万吨（枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、湘源矿）、海外盐湖6.9万吨（3Q、Mariana和 CO）、澳矿的7.8万吨（泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达产）、非矿11.5万吨（中 ...

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector experienced a significant surge in early trading, with companies like Erkang Pharmaceutical and Keli Yuan hitting the daily limit up, and Yanhai Co. rising by 9.2%, bringing its market value to over 200 billion yuan [1][2] - Sigma Lithium, a leading global lithium producer, saw its stock price increase by nearly 30%, while other companies like Yabo and Chilean Mining Chemical also reported gains of approximately 5% and 4% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - Zimbabwe, the world's fourth-largest lithium producer, announced a suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports to enhance mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [3] - UBS projected a supply shortage in the global lithium carbonate market by 2026, raising its price forecast to $26,000 per ton (approximately 180,000 yuan per ton), indicating the potential for a third price cycle in the lithium market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has shown an upward trend, increasing by 1.22% as of February 26, with leading stocks such as Salt Lake Potash, Bluestar Technology, and Cangge Mining showing significant gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The petrochemical ETF (159731) has followed the index's upward movement, achieving three consecutive days of gains and attracting a total of 146 million yuan over the past 12 trading days [1] - Overall, the global stock market has been strong during the Spring Festival, with no major risk events, leading to high market sentiment and the potential for a new upward trend in A-shares post-holiday [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The industry allocation continues to focus on a dual mainline strategy of "technology + resource products," with technology focusing on AI, humanoid robots, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while resource products emphasize precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals [1] - The petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, driven by both basic chemicals and oil and petrochemicals, while also including high dividend and high growth assets [1] Group 3: Key Stocks - Major weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical (global leader in MDI), China Petroleum (domestic oil and gas leader), China Petrochemical (domestic refining leader), and Salt Lake Potash (domestic potassium fertilizer leader) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines has announced an immediate suspension of all unprocessed mineral and lithium concentrate exports, significantly impacting the global lithium supply chain [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement, U.S. lithium producers saw significant stock price increases, with Sigma Lithium rising nearly 30% and Livent up 8% [1]. - In the A-share market, lithium-related stocks were notably active, with companies like Keli Yuan and Jinyuan shares hitting the daily limit, and Salt Lake shares increasing over 8% [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate has surged, with recent contracts reaching 175,960 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.84% increase [8]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Zimbabwe is the fourth largest lithium producer globally and the largest in Africa, with over 90% of its lithium concentrate exported to China [7]. - The suspension of exports is part of a broader trend, as countries like Namibia and Botswana have implemented similar measures, reshaping the global lithium supply chain towards local processing [7]. - By 2025, Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate production is expected to account for 12% of global supply, with China importing 15.5% of its lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe [7]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Response - China's lithium upstream inventory is critically low, with less than 20,000 tons available, which may exacerbate supply shortages due to the export ban [10]. - The ban is expected to create a supply gap of up to 20,000 tons per month, further intensifying the existing supply-demand imbalance in the lithium market [11]. - The situation may lead to a short-term increase in lithium prices, benefiting domestic lithium companies and prompting them to accelerate overseas mining investments [13]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Huayou Cobalt holds a 51% stake in Zimbabwe's Arcadia lithium mine, with a lithium carbonate equivalent of 245,000 tons, and is developing a processing plant [14]. - Zhongkuang Resources fully controls Zimbabwe's Bikita lithium mine, which is the largest operational lithium mine in Africa, with a high lithium oxide grade [14]. - Tianqi Lithium has full control over the Talison lithium mine, ensuring a self-sufficient resource rate and benefiting from rising lithium prices [14]. - Ganfeng Lithium, a global leader in the lithium industry, has a diversified resource layout and is well-positioned to avoid risks from Zimbabwe's export ban [15].

自由现金流ETF（159201）及其联接基金（A：023917；C：023918）紧密跟踪国证自由现金流指数， 成分股聚焦高自由现金流率公司，政策红利持续释放叠加市场关注度持续上升，自由现金流ETF （159201）成为投资者资产组合中兼具成长潜力与政策确定性的优质配置选择。基金管理费年费率为 0.15%，托管费年费率为0.05%，均为市场最低费率水平。 每日经济新闻 截至2月26日10点20分，国证自由现金流指数涨0.07%，成分股涨跌互现，烽火通信、盐湖股份、景津 装备等领涨。相关ETF方面，同类规模最大的自由现金流ETF（159201）跟随指数上行，盘中交投活 跃，成交额突破1.6亿元。自由现金流ETF昨日净流入超1.6亿元，近20个交易日净流入超36亿元，资金 布局特征显著。 银河证券研报表示，3月前后，A股市场或将以政策催化为核心驱动力，资金围绕政策导向的产业主线 与主题机会博弈，呈现"政策热点轮动，风格快速切换"的特征。同时，3月市场逻辑将从"政策预期"逐 步转向"业绩兑现"，上市公司2025年年报披露与随后的2026年一季报披露将成为行情锚点，业绩超预期 标的或获得资金聚焦。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.06% as of February 26 [2] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is seeing significant investment, with the Export-Import Bank of China planning to issue 640 billion yuan in new loans by 2025, focusing on trade, infrastructure, overseas investment, advanced manufacturing, green development, and improving people's livelihoods [2] - The total balance of "Belt and Road" loans from the Export-Import Bank has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, covering over 130 countries involved in the initiative [2] Group 2 - In 2025, China's total import and export value with "Belt and Road" countries is projected to reach 23.6 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, significantly higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade [3] - The proportion of trade with "Belt and Road" countries in China's total foreign trade is expected to rise to 51.9% in 2025, indicating that more than 5 out of every 10 yuan in China's foreign trade will come from these partners [3] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is solidifying its role as a cornerstone and main channel for China's foreign trade [3] Group 3 - The E Fund "Belt and Road" ETF (515110) is positioned to capitalize on strategic investment opportunities in "Belt and Road" countries [4]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector is experiencing significant upward movement, with various companies seeing substantial stock price increases, particularly following policy changes in Zimbabwe that affect lithium exports [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium concept stocks opened strongly, with Erkang Pharmaceutical hitting a 20% limit up, and companies like Keli Yuan and Jinyuan shares also reaching their limit up [1][4]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) saw a price increase of 9.2%, bringing its market capitalization to over 200 billion yuan [1][4]. - Other companies such as Rongjie Co. and Tianqi Lithium also experienced stock price increases [1][4]. Group 2: External Market Influences - Global lithium producers like Sigma Lithium saw stock prices rise nearly 30%, while other companies like Yabao and Chilean Mining Chemical also reported gains of approximately 5% and 4% respectively [5][6]. - On February 25, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports to enhance mineral regulation and accountability, impacting the global supply chain [3][6]. - UBS projected a supply shortage in the global lithium carbonate market by 2026, raising the price forecast to $26,000 per ton (approximately 180,000 yuan per ton) [3][7].

Group 1 - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, including in-transit goods, to strengthen mineral regulation and promote deep processing of mineral products [1] - By 2025, 19% of China's imported lithium concentrates are expected to come from Zimbabwe, with projections indicating that Zimbabwe's lithium resource output will account for 12% of global supply by 2026 [1] - The export ban on Zimbabwean lithium is anticipated to exacerbate the short-term supply shortage of lithium carbonate in China, potentially driving lithium prices significantly higher [1] Group 2 - As of February 25, 2026, the rare metal ETF fund has seen a net inflow of funds on 9 out of the last 17 trading days, totaling 22.89 million yuan [2] - The rare metal ETF fund (561800) serves as an excellent investment tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals industry [2] Group 3 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [3]

石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856)。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 截至2026年2月26日9:53，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.86%，成分股盐湖股份上涨8.51%，蓝晓科 技上涨4.23%，藏格矿业上涨4.02%，和邦生物上涨3.12%，浙江龙盛上涨2.98%。石化ETF(159731)上涨 1.13%， 冲击3连涨。流动性方面，截至2月25日，石化ETF近1月日均成交2.17亿元。资金流入方面，石 化ETF近12个交易日合计"吸金"1.46亿元。 国海证券分析称，节后需求回暖叠加库存低位，关注春节后聚氨酯涨价行情。每年2月前后是聚氨酯产 品的传统涨价节点之一，这主要是由于聚氨酯的主要消费市场比如中国大陆、中国台湾、越南等东南亚 国家和地区处于春节假期。此外，中东市场处于斋月期，节日备货需求提升，使得MDI和聚醚等聚氨酯 厂家顺利出货，库存降至低位。 石化ETF(159731)紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，截至2026年1月30日，中证石化产业指数(H11057)前十大 权重股分别为 ...