加密货币股票美股盘前上涨，ProShares比特币策略ETF上涨2.5%，iShares比特币信托上涨2.5%， Coinbase涨1.2%，Strategy涨1.7%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. economic activity and unexpected macro data in May have led to increased uncertainty, as reflected in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, which used the term "uncertainty" 80 times, impacting the bond market positively with a notable rise in bond prices [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates a decline in U.S. economic activity, suggesting that tariffs and high uncertainty are causing a chain reaction in the economy [1] - ADP's report shows that private sector job growth in May was nearly stagnant, with only 37,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest level in over two years [1] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have dropped to their lowest levels since May 9, with the 2-year yield down 8.25 basis points to 3.862% and the 10-year yield down 9.85 basis points to 4.355% [2] - Short-term bond ETFs have gained popularity, with significant inflows, including over $25 billion into iShares 0-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BIL) [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Many fixed-income investors are avoiding long-term U.S. Treasuries, shifting focus to short-term bonds as a substitute, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4] - Current conditions are expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with potential upward pressure on term premiums, keeping medium to long-term Treasury yields elevated [5]

美联储近日悄然买入436亿美元的美国国债，其中仅5月8日一天就购买了88亿美元的30年长期美债。尽管美联储并未正式称这是量化宽松（QE），但分析认 为这实则是一种"隐形宽松"。与此同时，全球央行购金需求强劲，3月全球央行购金64吨，中国购买量达30吨。今年迄今全球央行的黄金需求月均达94吨， 远超此前预计的80吨。此外，美联储的这一操作可能还利好新兴市场，尤其是资源丰富的拉美经济体，iSharesMSCI巴西ETF和iShares拉美40ETF今年已分别 涨约25.10%和24.53%。分析师认为，美联储的"隐秘动作"可能预示着市场将有大动作，黄金以及拉美市场的涨势可能进一步加速。 美联储购债的背景与影响 全球央行购金需求的强劲增长，特别是中国央行的大量购金行为，显示出市场对黄金的避险需求增加。黄金作为一种传统的避险资产，在全球经济不确定性 增加的背景下，其吸引力显著增强。 购金影响 全球央行的购金行为不仅对黄金市场产生了影响，还对相关金融市场产生了连锁反应。黄金价格的上涨不仅反映了市场对黄金的避险需求增加，也显示出市 场对全球经济前景的担忧。 新兴市场的受益与展望 购债背景 美联储近期的购债行为引发了市场的 ...

美联储此举对部分新兴市场资产或构成利好，尤其是拉美等资源丰富、藏有实物资产的经济体。今年以来，iShares MSCI巴西ETF（EWZ）和 iShares拉美40 ETF（ILF）分别上涨约24%，凸显出从美元走软与商品价格上涨中受益的战略性配置。 分析认为，美联储的"静悄悄动作"或预示市场将有大动作。尽管QE通常提振美股，但在美元信任度下降、地缘政治紧张加剧背景下，黄金、比特 币和拉美市场或更具避险价值与盈利潜力，有望成为真正的"风暴避难所"。（陈十一） 【环球网财经综合报道】美联储近日悄然展开"隐秘操作"，买入436亿美元美国国债，其中5月8日单日购入88亿美元30年长期美债，其余348亿美 元于上周早些时候完成。分析师认为，美联储虽称只是将到期债券本金再投资以避免资产负债表迅速缩小，未正式称其为量化宽松（QE），但实 质上买债行为难掩"隐形宽松"本质，如此操作并非其常规之举，买入规模亦不容小觑。 一些交易员已察觉此动态，精明投资者亦应予以关注，商品交易员对这类货币"障眼法"尤为敏感。 全球央行购金热潮持续。高盛数据显示，今年3月全球央行购金需求强劲，购入64吨黄金，中国为最大可识别买家，当月购入30吨 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has secretly purchased $43.6 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a return to quantitative easing (QE) practices, which is not typical for the Fed [1] - Financial analyst Lyn Alden suggests that while the Fed has not officially labeled this as QE, the act of buying bonds is essentially a form of monetary easing, regardless of the terminology used [1] - The rise in gold prices reflects a lack of trust in politicians and central bankers, with gold being seen as a reliable asset amidst economic uncertainty [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin has also reacted positively, driven by skepticism towards central planners and the recent halving event that has historically led to bullish trends in its price [2] - The Trump administration's shift towards recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic asset, along with increased institutional investment in Bitcoin ETFs, signifies its growing acceptance in mainstream finance [2] - Brazil's economy, driven by commodities, is experiencing a bull market, with ETFs like iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and iShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) rising approximately 24% this year, attributed to the Fed's actions leading to a weaker dollar and rising commodity prices [3] Group 3 - The covert QE actions by the Fed may accelerate returns in gold, Bitcoin, and resource-rich economies like Brazil, positioning them as safe havens and profit opportunities amid financial turbulence [3] - Investors who remain vigilant and act on these signals are likely to capture excess returns, as indicated by Charlie Garcia, founder and managing partner of R360, who holds positions in gold, silver, and Bitcoin [4]

沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 05 月 19 日 跨境产品表现出色，发行数量增加 ——海外创新产品周报 20250519 证券分析师 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ETP 研 究 ⚫ 美国 ETF 创新产品：跨境产品发行增加。上周美国共 17 只新发产品，跨境产品发行增加。 Lazard 上周一将其国际股票主动基金转为 ETF，产品的主要基准为 MSCI ACWI 除美国指 数，采用量化打分、风险因子优化的方式构建组合。今年除美国以外的投资机会关注度明 显提升，Horizon 发行一只日本 ETF，罗素、Harbor、Vontobel 上周都发行了跨境产品。 ⚫ 美国 ETF 资金流向：股票重新大幅流入。上周美国股票 ETF 重新恢复流入，国内股票单周 流入超过 ...

Domestic Convertible Bond ETF Development Status - Two convertible bond ETFs have been issued in China: Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF (as of Q1 2025, size 37.66 billion RMB) and Haifutong SSE Investment Grade Convertible Bond ETF (as of Q1 2025, size 5.78 billion RMB), together accounting for 6.1% of the total market size of convertible bonds [1][6][12] - The management fee rates for these ETFs are lower than those of actively managed convertible bond funds (0.15% and 0.25% respectively) [1][12] - Since 2024, institutional investors have accounted for over 97% of the holdings, indicating a strong demand for ETF allocation to diversify non-systematic risks [1][12] - Performance-wise, the returns for 2024 are 5.87% for Bosera and 8.32% for Haifutong, outperforming the average of actively managed convertible bond funds [1][12][22] U.S. Convertible Bond Market - The U.S. convertible bond market is the largest and most mature globally, with a total outstanding size of 254 billion USD by the end of 2024, covering a wide range of issuers from small to large companies, primarily in TMT, consumer, and healthcare sectors [2][42] - The terms of U.S. convertible bonds are designed to be flexible, with a stable default rate compared to the Chinese market [2][66] U.S. Convertible Bond Index and Index Funds - The U.S. has a well-established convertible bond index system, with various indices compiled by Bloomberg, ICE BofA, and iBoxx, dating back to 1988 [3][70] - The first U.S. convertible bond ETF, SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities ETF (CWB), was launched in 2009, with current sizes of 4 billion USD for CWB and 2.6 billion USD for iShares' ICVT [3][77] - Over the past five years, the annualized returns for passive ETFs (10%-11%) have significantly outperformed the average of actively managed funds (7.3%) [3][88] Insights and Recommendations - Suggestions for the development of China's convertible bond market include improving the index system and developing segmented strategy indices [4][89] - Emphasizing low fees as a core competitive advantage for passive products [4][89] - Enhancing liquidity of ETFs and underlying assets to increase trading activity [4][90] - Innovating bond terms to introduce more flexible mechanisms while protecting investors [4][90]

Group 1: New ETF Products - Pacer launched two new cash flow products, expanding its cash flow product line, including a quality-related product that selects S&P 500 stocks with at least 10 years of positive free cash flow [1] - VistaShares introduced an options strategy product that aims for a 15% annualized return by selecting stocks based on quality metrics and selling options [1] - Invesco launched three new products, including one focused on Nasdaq 100 stocks with an options strategy to control drawdowns [1] Group 2: ETF Fund Flows - U.S. stock ETFs experienced outflows, while international stocks and bond products saw significant inflows, particularly in bond ETFs [3][6] - Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF (VOO) had a net inflow of $27.11 billion, while iShares' core S&P 500 ETF (IW) saw a net outflow of $36.98 billion [7] - The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) continued to attract over $1 billion in inflows [6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds have seen a decline of over 2% in May, but bond ETFs are experiencing inflows, indicating a shift in risk appetite [10] - The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) has a year-to-date return of 2.21%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has a return of 1.08% [10] Group 4: Fund Flow Trends - In the week of April 23 to April 30, U.S. domestic stock funds experienced a significant outflow of $10.2 billion, while bond product outflows slowed [11] - As of March 2025, the total amount of non-money market mutual funds in the U.S. was $21.17 trillion, reflecting a decrease of $0.88 trillion from February [11]

Group 1 - Cryptocurrency stocks are rising in pre-market trading, with ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF up by 3.5% and iShares Bitcoin Trust up by 3.4% [1] - Bitcoin has reached its highest point in two and a half months, hitting $99,598 per coin [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Option strategy products in the US ETF market continue to be issued intensively, with various new products including small - cap and Bitcoin - related option strategies [1][6]. - International stock products in the US ETF market are seeing inflows, while US stock ETFs have some outflows. Bitcoin ETFs maintain inflows, and long - term bonds in the ETF market are falling significantly [1][10][15]. - In March 2025, the total amount of non - money public funds in the US decreased, and the scale decline of domestic stock - type products was higher than the stock decline. The outflow of domestic stock funds has been relatively low in recent months, and the outflow of bond products has also slowed down significantly [1][16][17]. Summary According to the Directory 1. US ETF Innovation Products: Option Strategies Continue to Be Issued Intensively - Last week, 16 new products were issued in the US, with many option strategy products. Simplify issued a small - cap plus option strategy product, and Amplify issued two Bitcoin option strategy products [1][6]. - Grayscale issued a Bitcoin - related product, and there was diverse issuance of bond products, including convertible bonds and MBS. PGIM and Innovator continued to expand downside protection products [7]. - Harbor issued a series of active ETFs for mid - cap and small - mid - cap value and core stock - selection products [8]. 2. US ETF Dynamics 2.1 US ETF Funds: International Stock Products See Inflows - Last week, US stock ETFs continued to have some outflows, while international stock and bond products had obvious inflows, and Bitcoin ETFs maintained inflows. Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF had significant inflows, and Bitcoin ETFs had inflows of over $2 billion [10][13]. - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF had obvious outflows last week, while Vanguard's products had stable inflows. Gold ETFs still had some outflows, and corporate bond ETFs had a small - scale return [14]. 2.2 US ETF Performance: Long - Term Bonds Fall Significantly - In the past month, US bonds rebounded overall, but long - term bonds had obvious declines, short - term and international bonds rose more, and long - term bond products had some outflows. iShares' MBS ETF entered the top ten in terms of bond ETF scale, and alternative bond products attracted more attention [15]. 3. Recent Capital Flows of US Ordinary Public Funds - In March 2025, the total amount of non - money public funds in the US was $21.17 trillion, a decrease of $0.88 trillion compared to February 2025. The scale of domestic stock - type products declined by 6.55%, higher than the 5.75% decline of the S&P 500 [16]. - From April 16th to April 23rd, US domestic stock funds had a total outflow of $2.68 billion. The outflows in recent months have been relatively low, and the outflows of bond products have also slowed down significantly [17].