【冠通研究】 震荡调整 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏强。今日尿素现货市场氛围转好，低价拿货情 况有增加。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1650-1690 元/吨，部分工厂价格上调 10 元/吨左右。基本面来看，今日上游工厂装置多发 停车检修，山西潞安、河南心连心及山西兰花均开启检修，日产数据下调至 18 万吨左右，但目前均属于正常计划内检修。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥 工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影 响，复合肥工厂连续两周出现限产减产情况，开工负荷继续下调。成品库存近 两个月位于五年同期高位水平，本周库存有去化，秋季肥逐渐开始跟进。期库 存继续累库，较上周增加 6.19 万吨，环比增加 6.05%，部分地区有出口订单或 停车检修计划，库存有所去化。今日盘面震荡回调，行情依然位于震荡区间 内，市场暂无明显驱动，向上向下空间均有限，九月初印标结果将对行情造成 一定影响，短期或震荡调整，中期有反弹布空机会。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1737 元/吨低开高走，日内震荡偏强，最终 收 ...

Group 1: Financial Assistance to Subsidiaries - The company plans to provide financial assistance totaling 126,801,522.26 yuan to its subsidiaries, Shanxi Lu'an Huaneng Shangzhuang Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and Shanxi Lu'an Group Puxian Houbao Coal Industry Co., Ltd. [3][11] - The financial assistance will be in the form of entrusted loans or internal borrowing, with a term of one year and an interest rate of 3.1% [3][11]. - The assistance is aimed at ensuring the operational needs of the subsidiaries, with 113,143,900 yuan allocated for working capital and 13,657,622.26 yuan for project payments [3][11]. Group 2: Closure of Subsidiary Mine - Shanxi Lu'an Group Puxian Xidong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. is set to close its mine due to resource depletion, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons per year [17][18]. - The closure is in line with the Shanxi provincial government's policy to optimize coal mine capacity and is based on safety and economic considerations [18][21]. - The closure is expected to reduce the company's losses and improve overall operational efficiency, although it will also lead to a reduction in total production capacity [22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company has shown significant results despite a decrease in profits, with increased coal production offsetting the decline in coal prices. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a raw coal output of 28.63 million tons and a sales volume of 25.25 million tons, marking a notable recovery year-on-year [5][6] - The company is strategically expanding its resources to address the short lifespan of existing mines, focusing on resource expansion, project construction, technological upgrades, mergers and acquisitions, and product upgrades to enhance its competitive edge [5][6] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends accounting for 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, reflecting strong cash flow and asset quality [6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 14.069 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.348 billion yuan, down 39.44% [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a single-quarter operating revenue of 7.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.05%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.92% [2] - The company's gross profit margin decreased significantly from 45.6% to 38.4% year-on-year due to a drop in coal prices, with the average selling price of coal falling from 683 yuan/ton to 516 yuan/ton [5] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.278 billion yuan, 2.695 billion yuan, and 2.964 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.76, 0.90, and 0.99 yuan per share [8]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Recommended" based on the expected performance and flexibility in pricing mechanisms [5][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.069 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.31%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.348 billion yuan, down 39.44% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 0.691 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.99% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.1% [1]. - The company confirmed asset disposal gains of 0.204 billion yuan in Q2 2025, primarily from the transfer of some coking capacity [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Production - In H1 2025, the company produced 28.63 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 3.47%, with a significant rise in the production of injection coal by 13.2% to 1.098 million tons [2]. - The total sales volume of commodity coal reached 25.25 million tons, up 2.85% year-on-year, with injection coal sales increasing by 15.71% [2]. Cost and Profitability - The average selling price of coal in H1 2025 was 516.2 yuan per ton, down 24.43% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 317.9 yuan, a decrease of 14.41% [2]. - The total gross profit from coal business was 5.009 billion yuan, down 34.53% year-on-year [2]. - In Q2 2025, the average selling price of coal was 492.72 yuan per ton, down 27.25% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 298.12 yuan, down 18.43% year-on-year [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to shut down the Xidong Coal Mine with a production capacity of 600,000 tons per year due to resource depletion, which is expected to reduce loss sources and optimize resource allocation [3]. Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.969 billion yuan, 5.976 billion yuan, and 6.622 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.33 yuan, 2.00 yuan, and 2.21 yuan [4]. - The PE ratios for the same years are expected to be 10, 7, and 6 times, respectively [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the influence of export sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have cut prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and transactions have improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and the upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although some companies are expected to conduct maintenance and the output may decline slightly, with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose. The profit of coal - based urea is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average. The export of urea is ongoing, and the port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,737 yuan/ton (+0). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0), in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (+0), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%). Some companies such as Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an are expected to conduct maintenance, and the output may decline slightly. But with the release of new production capacity, the future supply - demand of urea is still relatively loose [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of urea was 170 yuan/ton (+0). As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 83.98% (+0.08%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1,292 yuan/ton (+5). India's NFL issued a urea import tender, and the tender will close on September 2. This tender requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 27, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.84% (-2.64%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 46.60% (-3.22%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.06 days (+0.00) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 27, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.0858 million tons (+61,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 501,000 tons (+37,000 tons) [1]

Group 1 - The company Lu'an Environmental Energy reported a 20.31% year-on-year decrease in operating revenue for the first half of 2025, amounting to approximately 14.069 billion yuan [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company decreased by 39.44% year-on-year, totaling around 1.348 billion yuan [1] - The basic earnings per share fell by 39.19% year-on-year, reaching 0.45 yuan [1]

Report Date - The report was produced on August 27, 2025 [3] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 27, most domestic futures contracts ended in the red. Apples and Shanghai nickel rose over 1%. Polysilicon dropped over 4%, while coking coal and crude oil fell over 3%. Alumina, BR rubber, fuel oil, soybean No.2, and styrene declined over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) dropped 1.71%, the SSE 50 (IH) fell 1.85%, the CSI 500 (IC) decreased 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) tumbled 2.08%. In the bond futures market, the 2-year (TS) rose 0.02%, the 5-year (TF) climbed 0.06%, the 10-year (T) advanced 0.08%, and the 30-year (TL) soared 0.24% [6] Capital Flows - As of 15:22 on August 27, funds flowed into the CSI 500 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 300 2509 contracts, amounting to 3.741 billion, 1.151 billion, and 566 million respectively. Meanwhile, funds flowed out of the Shanghai gold 2510, Shanghai silver 2510, and SSE 50 2509 contracts, reaching 1.746 billion, 968 million, and 458 million respectively [8] Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened lower and closed higher, facing pressure. The probability of a 25% Fed rate cut is currently 85%. The supply of copper is expected to be tight both internationally and domestically, and the inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange remains low. Although the downstream market is in a slack season, there is an expectation of increased demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Overall, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened higher and closed lower. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, while the industrial-grade was 79,300 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton. The import volume in July decreased by 22% month-on-month and 43% year-on-year. The production in August and September is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year. The demand is expected to increase during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, providing support for prices [12] Crude Oil - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. The EIA data shows a larger-than-expected decline in US crude and gasoline inventories. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. The EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter. The price is expected to have limited upside potential, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][15] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 30.7% last week. The expected production in August is 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% month-on-month but an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. The downstream demand is weak due to factors such as funds and weather. The cost support from crude oil has weakened. The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term [16] PP - The downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.18 percentage points to 49.53%. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 87%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing as the consumption peak ends and OPEC+ accelerates production. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. However, the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The PP market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [17][18] Plastic - The plastic operating rate remained at around 84%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.53 percentage points to 40.00%. The cost pressure from crude oil is increasing. The new capacity has been put into operation, and the downstream demand is weak. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season may bring some support. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [19] PVC - The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.72 percentage points to 77.61%. The downstream demand is weak, and the export expectation has declined. The social inventory is still high. The PVC market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term [20][21] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and closed lower. The import volume in July increased significantly. The domestic production is increasing, and the inventory at mines has increased. The downstream demand is affected by environmental protection. The coking coal market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the near term, but the downside space is limited [22] Urea - Urea opened lower and closed lower. The spot market is weak and stable. The supply is expected to remain stable with the commissioning of new capacity. The demand from the industrial sector is resilient, but the demand for autumn fertilizers has not yet arrived. The inventory is at a high level. The urea market is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short term [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The board of directors of Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. held its ninth meeting of the eighth session, where several key proposals were discussed and approved, including the half-year report and various governance changes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Board Meeting Details - The board meeting was held on August 27, 2025, with all 9 directors present, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1]. - The meeting was chaired by Chairman Wang Zhiqing, with 5 supervisors in attendance [1]. Group 2: Resolutions Passed - The half-year report for 2025 was approved with unanimous support (9 votes in favor) [2]. - A risk assessment report for conducting deposit and loan business with Lu'an Group Financial Co., Ltd. was approved, requiring further submission to the shareholders' meeting [2]. - A proposal for comprehensive credit business was unanimously approved [2]. - The proposal to abolish the supervisory board and amend the company’s articles of association was also approved, pending shareholder approval [2][3]. - Various amendments to governance documents, including the rules for shareholder meetings and board meetings, were approved unanimously [7][8][9]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Proposals - A proposal to provide financial assistance to a controlling subsidiary was approved and will be submitted for shareholder review [10]. - The closure of the mining operations of a subsidiary was approved, indicating a strategic shift in operations [10]. - The public transfer of coking capacity indicators by a subsidiary was also approved, reflecting operational adjustments [10].

证券代码：601699 股票简称：潞安环能 公告编号：2025-037 山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司 第八届监事会第六次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 以同意 7 票、反对 0 票、弃权 0 票通过该议案。 （二）关于审议公司《在潞安集团财务有限公司办理存贷款业务 的风险评估报告》的议案 具体内容详见上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn） 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、 监事会会议召开情况： 山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第八 届监事会第六次会议于 2025 年 8 月 27 日在公司会议室以现场结合通 讯方式召开。会议通知已于 2025 年 8 月 15 日以通讯方式向全体监事 发出。本次会议应出席监事 7 名，实际出席 7 名。 本次会议由公司监事会主席张国印先生主持。本次会议的召集和 召开符合《公司法》《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》等法律法规、 部门规章、规范性文件及《公司章程》的相关规定。 二、监事会会议审议情况 本次监事会审议并通过以下决议： （一）关于审议公司二○二五 ...

Group 1 - The company is holding its first extraordinary general meeting of shareholders in 2025 on September 16, 2025, at 10:00 AM in Shanxi Province [4] - The agenda includes the revision of the company's articles of association and the proposal to change the registered address from "No. 65, North Street, High-tech Development Zone, Changzhi City" to "No. 50, Haisen East Street, Luzhou District, Changzhi City" [5][7] - The company proposes to abolish the supervisory board and terminate the relevant rules, transferring the supervisory functions to the audit committee of the board of directors [5][6] Group 2 - Shareholders must arrive at the meeting venue half an hour early and bring identification and shareholder account cards for registration [1][2] - The meeting will adopt a named voting method for resolutions, where each shareholder has one vote per share held [3] - Shareholders have the right to speak and ask questions during the meeting, but must adhere to time limits and relevant rules [2][3] Group 3 - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining order during the meeting and protecting the legal rights of shareholders [2] - The company will report any disturbances to the relevant authorities for handling [2] - The meeting will conclude with the announcement of voting results and legal opinions by the appointed lawyer [3][6]