Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - In the second half of the year, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand. The raw material issue remains a crucial factor influencing lead price trends. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to raw material - end changes and macro - policy guidance [2][98][99] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review: Long "N" Trend - In Q1, driven by macro - sentiment and tight raw materials, the lead price center shifted upwards. In January, due to environmental protection restrictions and weak demand, the lead market was in a state of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, the lead price rose but faced resistance due to low downstream acceptance. In March, with the recovery of supply and positive policies, the lead price fluctuated upwards [8] - In Q2, affected by tariff disturbances, the lead price was low at first and then high. In late March, due to supply - side factors and concerns about the off - season, the lead price declined. In early April, trade frictions caused the lead price to drop. Later, the lead price traded within a narrow range due to the contradiction between tight raw materials and weak demand. In mid - to late June, the lead price broke through the 17,000 yuan/ton mark [9] - As of June 30, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.35% from the end of last year and down 11.49% from the same period last year; the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,875 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the end of last year and down 11.88% from the same period last year. As of June 27, the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the end of last year and down 11.91% from the same period last year; the closing price of LME three - month lead (electronic trading) was 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.61% from the end of last year and down 8.10% from the same period last year [10] 2. Raw Materials & Profits: Strong Cost Support (1) Primary Lead: Tight Lead Concentrate Supply with No Improvement in TC - As of June 27, the average price of domestic lead concentrate was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the end of last year and down 11.32% from the same period last year; the average price of imported lead concentrate was 16,597.68 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the end of last year and down 2.58% from the same period last year [22] - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% (+48,600 tons). In China, domestic mines mainly resumed production with obvious increments. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese lead concentrate was 633,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.61% (+71,000 tons) [28] - For imported ores, overseas mine production was lower than expected, and the import supplement was relatively limited. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of lead concentrate was 552,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 32.05% (+134,100 tons). The main sources of imported goods were Russia (29%), Peru (9%), Australia (9%), the United States (7%), and Turkey (5%) [29] - As of the end of May, the raw material inventory of primary lead smelters was 389,300 tons, with raw material days of about 25 days, at a relatively high level. As of June 20, the primary lead smelting profit (processing) turned positive to 29.4 yuan/ton [41][42] (2) Recycled Lead: Limited Supply and Rising Scrap Battery Prices - At the beginning of the year, the scrap battery price was stable, and the recycled lead profit was acceptable. Since mid - March, with the increase in smelter production and the arrival of the scrap battery off - season, the scrap battery price was prone to rise and difficult to fall, and the recycled lead profit declined significantly [48] - As of June 30, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 3.01% from the end of last year and down 11.80% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,279 yuan/ton, up 4.20% from the end of last year and down 8.39% from the same period last year; the comprehensive cost of small - and medium - scale recycled lead enterprises was 17,506 yuan/ton, up 4.30% from the end of last year and down 8.58% from the same period last year [48] 3. Supply Side: One Increase and One Decrease (1) Primary Lead: Rising Production - ILZSG data shows that from January to April 2025, the cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.08% (+89,300 tons). From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese refined lead was 1.5651 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42% (+121,500 tons) [64] (2) Recycled Lead: Volatile Production - Affected by raw materials and environmental protection factors, the production of recycled lead enterprises fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese recycled lead was 1.347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.61% (-22,100 tons) [70] 4. Demand Side: Off - Season Conditions (1) Slow Downstream Purchasing in the Off - Season - In the first half of the year, with subsidy policies such as trade - in, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was acceptable. In the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, the demand weakened, but policies and "rush - to - export" under tariff disturbances alleviated some concerns [76] - Many provinces and cities have introduced electric bicycle trade - in policies, which have a positive impact on the demand for lead - acid batteries [79][80][83] (2) Continuous Closure of Export Windows - As of June 27, the profit of exporting lead ingots to Taiwan was - 2,392.94 yuan/ton, and the profit of exporting to Southeast Asia was - 2,464.55 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume of lead ingots was 20,753 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43.53% (+6,294 tons). The cumulative export volume of Chinese lead - acid batteries was 94.2984 million units, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.24% (-3.1552 million units) [84] 5. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - The lead ingot inventory fluctuated and increased. As of June 30, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five locations was 56,300 tons, up 6.03% from the end of last year and down 9.05% from the same period last year [86][87] 6. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the second half of the year, the macro - environment is favorable. The raw material remains a key factor in determining the lead price. The production of primary lead is expected to increase steadily, while the production of recycled lead is uncertain. The demand is expected to improve steadily [98] - Overall, the lead market will see an increase in both supply and demand in the second half of the year. Without significant contradictory stimuli, the lead， price is expected to trade within a range of 16,500 - 18,000 yuan/ton [99]

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月24日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌-0.27%,成交量7.68万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为5053手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交8.26万手，比上一日新增1.63万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓11.21万手，比上一日增加2393 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓12.01万手，比上一日增加1454手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓26286、国泰君安，总持仓17671、东证期货，总持仓12505；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓17673、银河期货，总持仓13381、中信期货，总持仓12662； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓11857、增仓770，华泰期货、持仓7862、增仓628，中信期货、持 仓22997、增仓522；多头减仓前三名分别是：银河期货、持仓5807、减仓-492，国信期货、持仓1255、减仓-112，中泰期货、持 仓1809、减仓-105； | | | | | 2025年6月24日30年期国债期货全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

文章来源:新浪期货 | | | | | 2025年6月23日多晶硅主力合约2508持仓数据 | | | | 一览 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | J | 中信期货 | 26,835 | 438 | 银河期货 | 7,970 | -1,355 | 国泰君安期货 | 8,202 | 549 | | 2 | 国泰君安期货 | 13,945 | -670 | 中信建投 | 7,582 | 272 | 中信建投 | 6,297 | 306 | | 3 | 银河期货 | 6,217 | 773 | 国泰君安期货 | 6,316 | 856 | 中信期货 | 5,781 | 948 | | ব | 东证期货 | 6,102 | 1,212 | 中信期货 | 5,698 | 410 | 浙商期货 | 4,662 | 110 | | 5 | 浙商期货 | 5,810 | -41 | 浙商期货 | 4.14 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月19日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.16%,成交量6.39万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为4757手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交6.79万手，比上一日新增1.17万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓10.37万手，比上一日增加409 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓11.12万手，比上一日减少386手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓24753、国泰君安，总持仓16438、东证期货，总持仓12022；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓14119、银河期货，总持仓12573、中信期货，总持仓12547； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：华泰期货、持仓6392、增仓351，平安期货、持仓3289、增仓322，招商期货、持 仓1407、增仓224；多头减仓前三名分别是：浙商期货、持仓974、减仓-306，宏源期货、持仓1787、减仓-210，中信期货、持仓 21952、减仓-206； | | | | | 2025年6月19日30年期国债期货主力合约2509持仓数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | - ...

申万宏源研究所宏观高级分析师贾东旭从全球经济格局、国内政策导向及大宗商品市场走势三个维度，深入剖析了2025年棉花产业面临的宏观环境，建议企 业关注政策红利，灵活运用金融工具对冲风险。中国棉花信息网总经理张曼结合最新市场数据，分析了2024、2025年度棉花供需格局与价格走势；演讲嘉宾 张静分享了2025年新疆棉花种植的实地调研成果；申万宏源证券FICC事业部客盘业务团队高级产品经理张泰立通过案例分析，展示了棉花期货、期权及"保 险+期货"模式如何帮助企业锁定利润、降低采购成本。他特别指出："2024年新疆棉企通过场外期权工具，平均降低了风险敞口，金融工具的应用已成为产 业升级的关键推手。" 宏源期货新疆分公司负责人在闭幕总结中表示："未来，我们将持续发挥期货市场功能，为新疆棉花产业提供精准的风险管理服务，助力'稳企安农 护航实 体'目标实现。" 期货日报网讯（记者 谭亚敏）近日，新疆证券期货业协会携手宏源期货在乌鲁木齐举办"稳企安农 护航实体"——新疆棉花产业风险管理交流会，本次会议 汇聚了行业专家及棉花产业链企业代表，共同探讨2025年棉花产业面临的机遇与挑战，分享风险管理最新实践，助力新疆棉花产业高质量 ...

新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月13日收盘主力合约5年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.04%,成交量5.87万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为15411手。 5年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交6.16万手，比上一日新增1.12万手。全合约前20席位多头持仓14.27万手，比上一日减少4331 手。全合约前20席位空头持仓15.95万手，比上一日减少2893手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓37925、东证期货，总持仓24696、国泰君安，总持仓16542；空头前三席位 为中信期货，总持仓39909、东证期货，总持仓20811、银河期货，总持仓12844； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：广发期货、持仓5545、增仓452，东证期货、持仓21018、增仓307，中银期货、持 仓2511、增仓298；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信建投、持仓2797、减仓-1274，宏源期货、持仓2487、减仓-859，国泰君安、持 仓14951、减仓-429； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：招商期货、持仓11365、增仓1175，国金期货、持仓2603、增仓464，平安期货 ...

根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓24582、国泰君安，总持仓15835、东证期货，总持仓11303；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓15056、中信期货，总持仓12148、银河期货，总持仓11870； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓12735、增仓709，银河期货、持仓4097、增仓431，东证期货、持 仓10628、增仓410；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓22064、减仓-649，华泰期货、持仓6325、减仓-328，国金期货、持 仓2266、减仓-192； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：平安期货、持仓3851、增仓316，宏源期货、持仓3718、增仓227，申银万国、持 仓3391、增仓182；空头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓5608、减仓-176，国元期货、持仓1474、减仓-131，银河期货、持仓 9011、减仓-96。 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月11日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.23%,成交量5.50万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为4900手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交5.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options contracts for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, to support China's dual carbon strategy and enhance the industry's risk management tools [1] Group 1: Market Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys globally, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a production volume of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [1] - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys in China is projected to be approximately 6.73 million tons [1] Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Casting aluminum alloys are characterized by low density, high strength, good corrosion resistance, and excellent castability, making them widely used in automotive, motorcycle, machinery, communication equipment, electronics, and hardware lighting sectors [1] Group 3: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations [1] - The contracts will facilitate physical delivery, expanding the spot circulation channels for enterprises [1] Group 4: Pricing and Valuation - The initial listing benchmark price for the casting aluminum alloy contracts is set at 18,365 CNY per ton, with trading units of 10 tons and delivery units of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt [2] - Initial reasonable valuation for the contracts is estimated to be between 19,000 and 20,000 CNY per ton based on current market prices [2] Group 5: Demand Dynamics - The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloys is concentrated, with over 60% used in the automotive sector, 7% in home appliances, and 10% in motorcycles and electric vehicles [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected, with peak demand from September to December and January of the following year, while the off-peak season typically occurs from May to August [3] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price relationship between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum shows seasonal trends, with the price difference typically ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 CNY per ton [3] - The correlation between aluminum alloy spot prices and primary aluminum spot prices can be utilized for effective price risk management [4]

有色金属周报(锌) 基本面支撑有限，维持空配 2025年6月9日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：特朗普关税政策再度生变，市场对金属关税政策担 | | | | | 忧上升，避险情绪再度增强。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。受进口锌矿持续到货补充，国内 | | | | | 炼厂加工费持续上调，其中内蒙古、东北、广西等地区受 | | | | | 进口矿/炼厂检修因素影响，加工费涨幅较为明显；但随 | 随着进口锌矿不断到港，国内矿 | | | | 着港口锌矿库存明显下滑，部分新增炼厂产能开始产出， | 山亦稳步复产，炼厂原料库存增 | | | | 对锌矿需求旺盛，后续TC回升速度将放缓。 | 至27.72万吨，加工费持续上行带 | | |  | 成本利润：锌价回落后区间盘整，矿端对TC继续上调意 | 动炼厂利润不断好转，供给端增 | | | | 愿不高，预计6月调涨空间相对有限，国产TC或环比上调 | 量预期较强 ...

8 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月06日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.35%,成交量7.03万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为4496手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交7.43万手，比上一日新增3509手。全合约前20席位多头持仓9.35万手，比上一日增加2048手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓10.11万手，比上一日增加3465手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓22092、国泰君安，总持仓13410、东证期货，总持仓11796；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓12911、中信期货，总持仓12309、银河期货，总持仓11153； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓11096、增仓1300，中信期货、持仓19576、增仓718，国泰君安、 持仓10501、增仓462；多头减仓前三名分别是：宏源期货、持仓1565、减仓-529，平安期货、持仓4951、减仓-339，国金期货、 持仓2525、减仓-317； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国金期货、持仓4114、增仓1198，宝城期货、持仓4523、增仓852，申银万 ...