国泰海通晨报 2026 年 01 月 13 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：Nike 与 Adidas 作为全球运动服饰领域的两大龙头，其战略方 向与业绩波动是 A+H 纺服板块投资最重要的风向标之一，二者不仅定义了行业景气度，更通过 深度的产业链绑定，直接决定了核心标的的估值逻辑与业绩弹性：1. 制造端（Alpha 来源）： 头 部代工龙头品牌集中度较高，Nike 与 Adidas 多合计贡献超过 30%，巨头的订单分配策略直接决 定了供应商的产能利用率与业绩波动。 2. 零售端（格局重塑）： 二者在大中华区的品牌势能起 伏，直接重塑了国内运动品牌的竞争格局与市占率空间，是判断运动行业发展驱动力的重要基础。 3. 渠道端（深度绑定）： 核心大中华区零售商（如滔搏、宝胜）与双雄利益深度捆绑，品牌方的 库存周期与折扣策略直接主导了渠道商的盈利水平。本报告旨在深度复盘近 5 年两大巨头在经历 疫情冲击、新疆棉事件、管理层更迭及关税博弈后的基本面修复路径，通过对比二者的战略得失， 预判未来行业格局的演变趋势及其对核心供应链、渠道商的传导影响。 [ ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a slight drop before rebounding, with COMEX gold futures trading around $4605 per ounce [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed strong performance, with 华夏 ETF up 0.32%, 有色金属 ETF up 2.73%, and 黄金股 ETF up 3.68% [1] - Notable stock performances included 明牌珠宝 hitting the daily limit, 湖南白银 nearing the daily limit, and several companies like 紫金矿业 and 招金矿业 reaching historical price highs [1] Group 2 - Earnings forecasts for 2025 are being released, with significant positive expectations from companies in the gold sector [1] - 赤峰黄金 expects a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70% to 81% [1] - 紫金矿业 anticipates a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [1] - 潮宏基 projects a net profit of approximately 436 million to 533 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% [1] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks are driving increased demand for safe-haven assets, benefiting precious metals [1] - News regarding the criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has implications for the perceived independence of the Federal Reserve and adds uncertainty to monetary policy, further supporting precious metal prices [1] Group 4 - 东方证券 expresses optimism about the gradual increase in average gold prices, anticipating strong performance from mining companies in gold and silver sectors [2] - Companies with good earnings releases are expected to outperform the commodity price increases [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant movements in various sectors, particularly in gold and lithium stocks, driven by geopolitical risks and market dynamics [1][2][5]. - International spot gold prices have historically surpassed $4600 per ounce, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1][2]. - Lithium stocks have seen a resurgence, with Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium rising by 5.18% and 6.59% respectively, as lithium carbonate futures reached a new high of 170,000 yuan per ton [1][2]. Group 2 - Insurance stocks performed strongly, with China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, China Life, and New China Life all experiencing gains between 2.04% and 2.51% [2]. - Gold-related stocks also rose, with China Gold International up 7.72% and Lingbao Gold up 6.35%, reflecting increased safe-haven demand as gold prices hit record highs [2]. - The cement sector saw gains, with Jinju Group rising nearly 5% following the announcement of key construction projects in Hebei province [2]. Group 3 - Biopharmaceutical stocks, particularly WuXi AppTec and Tigermed, saw significant increases, with WuXi AppTec rising 6.86% after announcing a projected revenue of 45.456 billion yuan for the year, a 15.84% increase year-on-year [4]. - Ark Health's stock surged nearly 40% after launching an "AI + chronic disease management" solution in collaboration with Tencent Health, marking a new phase in chronic disease management [4]. - In the U.S. market, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose over 3%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks like Zhihu and Kingsoft Cloud, driven by advancements in AI applications [5][6].

Group 1 - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant activity, with several stocks showing notable gains, including Xiaocheng Technology up by 10.44% and Hunan Silver reaching the daily limit [1][2] - The core logic driving the market's interest in precious metals is their dual value proposition, serving as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties and benefiting from industrial demand in sectors like renewable energy and electronics [2][3] Group 2 - Gold and silver futures prices have reached historical highs, with gold touching $4630.19 per ounce and silver exceeding $86 per ounce, reflecting strong investment momentum and ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Citigroup has raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, increasing the gold price target from $4200 to $5000 per ounce and silver from $62 to $100 per ounce, citing strong investment momentum and favorable conditions [3] - The precious metals mining sector is expected to benefit directly from rising prices, with companies possessing quality mineral reserves likely to see increased revenues and profit margins [5] - The precious metals processing industry is experiencing growth due to rising demand for high-quality products in sectors such as electric vehicles and biomedicine, with advanced processing companies poised to capture more market share [6]

风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 中证500ETF华夏（512500）业绩比较基准为中证500指数，管理人为华夏基金管理有限公司，基金经理 为荣膺，成立（2015-05-05）以来回报为0.81%，近一个月回报为15.11%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 1月13日，截止午间收盘，中证500ETF华夏（512500）跌0.67%，报4.593元，成交额1.53亿元。中证 500ETF华夏（512500）重仓股方面，胜宏科技截止午盘跌1.65%，华工科技跌3.90%，先导智能涨 1.17%，芯原股份涨0.01%，巨人网络涨0.45%，指南针跌1.14%，卧龙电驱跌1.93%，欣旺达跌2.48%， 赤峰黄金涨2.85%，润和软件跌3.90%。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold price reached $4493.85 per ounce, up $140.90 from January 2, with a growth rate of 3.24% [2][3] - Silver price was $78.14 per ounce, increasing by $3.93 from January 2, reflecting a growth rate of 5.29% [2][3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for December showed an increase of 50,000 jobs, below the expected 65,000, indicating a potential upward trend for precious metals [3] Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - LME copper closed at $12,990 per ton, up $480 from January 2, with a growth rate of 3.84% [4] - Domestic aluminum price was 24,060 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,540 yuan from December 31 [6] - High prices are suppressing short-term demand for copper and aluminum, with copper production facing supply disruptions [5][6] Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin price was 350,700 yuan per ton, up 24,610 yuan from December 31, with a growth rate of 7.55% [7] - Antimony price was 158,000 yuan per ton, down 3,000 yuan from December 31, indicating weak demand [8] Group 4: Industry Ratings and Investment Strategy - The gold industry is rated "recommended" due to the Fed's easing cycle [9] - The copper industry is also rated "recommended" as copper supply remains tight [10] - The aluminum industry maintains a "recommended" rating due to rigid supply [11]

Group 1 - The majority of gold stocks have risen, with China Gold International (02099) up 6.1% to HKD 177.3, Lingbao Gold (03330) up 4.4% to HKD 21.36, Zijin Mining International (02259) up 3.59% to HKD 158.5, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) up 2.52% to HKD 30.96 [1] - There is a significant increase in risk aversion, with gold prices surpassing USD 4600 for the first time, setting a new historical high [1] - Citigroup predicts that gold prices will reach USD 5000 per ounce and silver prices will reach USD 100 within three months [1] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the situation in Iran, where protests have led to unrest and casualties among security personnel and civilians [1] - The U.S. State Department has advised American citizens to leave Iran immediately due to the escalating tensions [1] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised following the investigation of Jerome Powell [1]

Group 1: Key Insights on Tin Market - Tin prices broke through 350,000 yuan per ton this week but retreated due to tightening market sentiment ahead of the U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to profit-taking by some investors [1][3] - Domestic social inventory saw a significant decrease of 12.61% week-on-week, primarily due to slow recovery in tin ore supply and uncertainties in production from major producing countries, indicating a persistent tight raw material situation [1][3] - Demand for tin is expected to remain strong, driven by high capital expenditure in AI, with a positive outlook for tin prices in the future [1][3] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a buy on copper equities during dips, as the market anticipates a tightening supply-demand situation in 2026 due to expected production cuts from Freeport and Teck Resources [2] - For aluminum, the recommendation is to buy on dips, as strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks provide support despite current consumption pressures and rising social inventories [3] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, as supply constraints are expected due to new government policies limiting domestic production [4] Group 3: Investment Suggestions - Companies to watch include Xingye Silver Tin, Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, New Jinlu, Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Zijin Gold International, Zhaojin Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward movement of gold stocks in the Hong Kong market, indicating a positive trend in this sector [2] Group 2 - China Gold International (02099.HK) saw an increase of 6.1%, reaching a price of 177.3 HKD [2] - Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) rose by 4.4%, with its stock priced at 21.36 HKD [2] - Zijin Mining International (02259.HK) experienced a 3.59% increase, trading at 158.5 HKD [2] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) gained 2.52%, with shares priced at 30.96 HKD [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in gold stocks, driven by increased risk aversion and geopolitical tensions, with gold prices reaching a historic high of over $4600 per ounce [1] - Major gold companies such as China Gold International, Lingbao Gold, Zijin Mining International, and Chifeng Jilong Gold have seen their stock prices increase, with China Gold International rising by 6.1% to HKD 177.3, Lingbao Gold by 4.4% to HKD 21.36, Zijin Mining International by 3.59% to HKD 158.5, and Chifeng Jilong Gold by 2.52% to HKD 30.96 [1] - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce and silver prices could hit $100 within the next three months, indicating a bullish outlook for precious metals [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to the rise in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [1] - Ongoing protests and unrest in Iran, which have resulted in casualties among security personnel and civilians, are also influencing market sentiment and driving demand for gold as a protective investment [1]