Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is Neutral (downgraded) [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of factors including changes in monetary policy expectations, increased geopolitical risks, and a weakening dollar [4][6][9] - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is expected to influence market dynamics, with potential implications for gold prices due to concerns over the independence of the Fed and future monetary policy direction [7][8][9] Summary by Sections Industry Events - On January 28, 2026, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts [3] - On January 30, 2026, President Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Walsh for the next Fed Chair, pending Senate approval [3] - Following these announcements, gold prices experienced a significant reversal, with COMEX gold futures dropping over 10% on January 30, marking the largest single-day decline since the 1980s [3] Market Performance - As of January 28, 2026, London spot gold prices reached $5,309.95 per ounce, with a monthly increase of 23.19% [4] - After the Fed's decision, gold prices surged again, hitting a new record of $5,598.75 per ounce [4] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The report identifies several geopolitical events that have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold, including military conflicts and trade tensions [6] - The weakening of the dollar and the ongoing process of "de-dollarization" are also contributing to gold's appeal as a non-dollar store of value [6] - The political pressure on the Fed's independence is expected to influence future monetary policy, potentially leading to a more accommodative stance [8][9] Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments in gold prices are anticipated due to profit-taking and market corrections following the recent surge [9] - However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by structural factors such as ongoing dollar depreciation and rising fiscal risks in the U.S. [9]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-29 鸽派预期再定价，⾦价加速创历史新⾼ 对更鸽派、独⽴性边际弱化的美联储预期持续升温，叠加主权债与货币避 险需求外溢，推动贵⾦属再度加速上⾏。⻩⾦在配置资⾦主导下突破关键 整数位并放量⾛⾼；⽩银跟随放⼤弹性，但交易与波动⻛险同步抬升，结 构分化进⼀步显现。 黄金观点：趋势性上行延续并再创新高，货币政策预期与避险配置形 成共振，短期关注波动率抬升。 逻辑：市场对未来货币政策更趋宽松的再定价持续推进，围绕下一任 美联储主席的鸽派预期升温，强化无息资产吸引力。与此同时，主权 债与货币承压、地缘不确定性抬升，资金加速流向黄金等避险资产， 推动金价上破5400美元/盎司并放量上行。配置端与期权端同步反映 对上行风险的定价意愿，黄金在贵金属中继续体现低波动、强趋势特 征。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望：在货币政策预期、避险配置与去信用化叙事共振下，黄金中期 逻辑稳固。短期或伴随波动率抬升与获利回吐，但回调阶段仍具配置 吸引力。 白银观点：高弹性上涨延续但波动显著放大，交易层面约束上升，短 期更偏震荡消化。 逻辑： 白银 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global central banks and sovereign wealth funds are shifting from U.S. Treasuries to gold due to pressures from the debt cycle, geopolitical tensions, and policy credibility [2] - The debt cycle indicates that high debt levels will squeeze spending, leading to a decline in the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as market sell-offs and increased supply require higher real returns from holders [2] - Gold is emphasized as a "hard currency" and the second-largest reserve currency, with its price increase reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets by central banks and sovereign funds [2] Group 2 - Recent gold market movements have shown a strong upward trend, with significant price fluctuations indicating a "breakout" pattern, where breaking key levels leads to accelerated price movements [3] - The current market is characterized by an extreme trend-following behavior, where traders can confidently follow price movements with minimal stop-loss settings [3] - Key technical levels for gold prices include support at approximately 5160 and 5126, with resistance around 5236, indicating potential future price targets [3]

26日盘中，现货黄金突破5000美元/盎司大关，续创历史新高；现货白银一度大涨超5%。 中信建投（601066）证券指出，地缘风险再度上升，避险资金不断融入黄金市场。全球白银的库存扣除 ETF锁定的部分，可流动的白银体量仍旧偏低，白银作为黄金的价格放大器，涨幅更为突出。押注美联 储鸽派掌门人接班造成的美元信用弱化及地缘冲突风险抬升，避险配置及央行购金行为延续，强化贵金 属牛市格局。 黄金概念26日盘中再度走高，截至发稿，湖南黄金（002155）、盛达资源（000603）、中国黄金 （600916）、豫光金铅（600531）等均涨停，中金黄金（600489）、白银有色（601212）、招金黄金 （000506）等涨超8%。值得注意的是，盛达资源、豫光金铅、中国黄金已连续两个交易日涨停。 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals and energy metals sectors experienced a collective surge, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871) rising by 3.45%, and Hunan Silver increasing over 9% [1] - Silver prices have historically surpassed $90 per ounce, while gold prices remain near historical highs [1] - LME tin prices have also crossed the significant threshold of $51,000 per ton, and LME copper prices have reached a record high of over $13,000 per ton [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for gold and silver for the next three months, while Goldman Sachs has increased its copper price predictions for the first half of the year [1] - According to a report from CITIC Securities, U.S. military actions in Venezuela are intensifying geopolitical tensions, driving safe-haven investments and central bank allocations towards gold, alongside expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The long-term positive trend in the non-ferrous metals sector continues, with a recommendation to focus on the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871) to capture structural opportunities [2]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector is experiencing significant activity, with several stocks showing notable gains, including Xiaocheng Technology up by 10.44% and Hunan Silver reaching the daily limit [1][2] - The core logic driving the market's interest in precious metals is their dual value proposition, serving as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties and benefiting from industrial demand in sectors like renewable energy and electronics [2][3] Group 2 - Gold and silver futures prices have reached historical highs, with gold touching $4630.19 per ounce and silver exceeding $86 per ounce, reflecting strong investment momentum and ongoing central bank purchases [3] - Citigroup has raised its short-term outlook for precious metals, increasing the gold price target from $4200 to $5000 per ounce and silver from $62 to $100 per ounce, citing strong investment momentum and favorable conditions [3] - The precious metals mining sector is expected to benefit directly from rising prices, with companies possessing quality mineral reserves likely to see increased revenues and profit margins [5] - The precious metals processing industry is experiencing growth due to rising demand for high-quality products in sectors such as electric vehicles and biomedicine, with advanced processing companies poised to capture more market share [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 and escalating geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - As of the latest report, spot gold has risen by 1.59%, reaching $4,400.53 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.55% [1]. - The military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela have temporarily ceased, which may limit short-term impacts on gold prices [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The anticipated rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index from January 8 to 14 could lead to technical selling by passive funds, with expected futures sell-offs accounting for 9% of silver and 3% of gold total holdings [3]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate report on January 9 are expected to significantly influence gold prices [3]. Group 3: Medium to Long-term Outlook - Increased military engagement by the U.S. in Venezuela could lead to a temporary escalation in geopolitical tensions, supporting both gold and oil prices [4]. - Long-term prospects for gold prices may be bolstered if the U.S. dollar declines or if the U.S. experiences a downturn [4]. - The potential gold resource in Venezuela is estimated at 3,500 tons, with a projected production of 31 tons in 2024, placing it in the mid-range of global gold production [4]. Group 4: Price Levels to Watch - Analysts suggest monitoring support levels for London gold prices around $4,150 to $4,250 per ounce and resistance levels near $4,450 to $4,550 per ounce [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the attractiveness of dividend-paying stocks, particularly in the context of the recent net inflow of over 710 million yuan into the Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF (510720) over the past 20 days, indicating its defensive investment characteristics [1] - The dividend sector is gaining market attention due to its appealing dividend yield and defensive attributes, with a focus on stable dividend capabilities and commodity price trends as key supporting factors [1] - The Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF tracks the China National Dividend Index (000151), which selects high-dividend and stable dividend-paying companies across sectors such as banking, coal, and transportation, emphasizing traditional high-dividend areas [1] Group 2 - The index employs a rigorous assessment of constituent stocks based on dividend yield and sustainability, utilizing a cross-industry diversification strategy to effectively manage investment risks and reflect the overall market performance of high-dividend companies [1] - The Dividend State-Owned Enterprise ETF has consistently distributed dividends monthly since its listing, achieving 20 consecutive months of dividends, which underscores its commitment to returning value to investors [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets are entering a typical year-end trading rhythm, with liquidity tightening and a mixed sentiment of risk appetite and safe-haven demand [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average showed resilience, rising over 200 points on Monday, with financial and materials sectors leading the performance [1][3] - The market is expected to finish the year on a stable and slightly positive note, despite the holiday trading period [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold continues to serve as a core asset in the macro hedging system, maintaining a strong performance with a nearly 70% increase year-to-date, marking one of the strongest annual performances since the late 1970s [2] - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on gold, citing uncertainties in tariff policies, ongoing central bank purchases, and strong demand from ETFs and physical markets as key supports for the current gold bull market [2] - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to remain solid as long as quarterly demand stays above critical levels, with no signs of a slowdown in central bank and long-term fund allocations [2] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to gain momentum ahead of the holidays, with AI-related stocks attracting attention and financial and materials sectors showing strong performance [3] - The market is attempting to approach phase highs within a limited year-end trading window, but liquidity constraints are becoming more apparent [3] - Investors are actively reducing risk exposure while participating in year-end trading, preparing for the next phase of market conditions [3] Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent inflation data has not provided clear guidance, with some key components missing due to government shutdowns, leading to cautious market sentiment regarding CPI reports [4] - Expectations for further rate cuts remain, but pricing of policy paths has slowed, with the Fed likely to maintain a reserved stance on the inflation report [4] - Upcoming ADP employment and GDP data are viewed as the last significant macro indicators before the holidays, with current ADP employment numbers indicating a weak labor market trend [4] Group 5: Interest Rates and Bond Market - Traders are increasing bullish positions on U.S. Treasuries, betting on a decline in 10-year Treasury yields to around 4%, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic slowdown and policy shifts [5] - Large asset management firms are signaling a defensive stance by increasing cash holdings and reducing leverage, indicating heightened caution towards high valuation environments and geopolitical risks [5] - The market is characterized by a complex structure of rising risk appetite and safe-haven demand, emphasizing the importance of position management and rhythm control [5] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The current global market dynamics are shaped by year-end risk appetite, policy uncertainties, and geopolitical factors [6] - U.S. stocks are supported by a rate-cut environment and year-end sentiment, while gold continues to operate within historical high ranges due to safe-haven demand and structural allocation forces [6] - The market is likely to maintain a structurally volatile pattern until key data and policy paths become clearer, with the sustainability of asset price trends needing further validation through upcoming events [6]

Group 1 - Ukraine has officially halted all peace negotiations with Russia, stating that no substantial progress has been made in multiple rounds of talks this year, and will not initiate new negotiations before the end of 2025, leading to a complete standstill in the peace process [1] - The Russian Foreign Ministry blamed Ukraine for the breakdown in talks, accusing it of undermining prisoner exchange agreements, which has resulted in increased geopolitical tensions and volatility in global financial markets [1] - Short-term market fluctuations are driven by rising geopolitical risks, while long-term trends will depend on the progress of energy supply alternatives and central bank policies; prolonged conflict may lead to renewed global inflation pressures and delayed expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have seen an increase, with Shanghai gold rising by 1.56% to 961.22 yuan per gram, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [3] - According to Guangfa Futures, the U.S. economy and job market are facing challenges from government shutdowns and trade tensions, while central banks are increasingly accumulating gold, indicating a shift in asset allocation towards commodities with strong financial attributes [4] - The potential for a bull market in precious metals similar to the 1970s is anticipated, although historical trends suggest that after reaching new highs, gold prices may face a 2-3 month consolidation period before new upward momentum develops [4]