挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 煤炭行业周报 海外供给扰动加剧，煤价淡季不淡可期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 【投资要点】 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：王涛 证书编号：S1160525020003 证券分析师：朱彤 证书编号：S1160525030006 相对指数表现 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2025/3 2025/8 2026/2 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究 《陕西推行煤矿安全生产责任包保制，持 续关注海外供给扰动》 2026.02.08 《电厂日耗继续回升，关注海外供给扰动》 2026.02.03 《寒潮致日耗显著回升，关注节前补库需 求》 2026.01.25 煤炭行业周报 节后双焦价格或承压，关注两会期间钢焦生产变动情况。（1）sxcoal：1 月蒙 古国煤炭产量 1017 万吨，环/同比-2.3%/+55.7%（25 年产量 9542 万吨，同比 +0.3%）。（2）截至 2 月 27 日，供给端，焦化厂开工率 72.8%，较节前/同比 +0.9/+1.7pct（节前同比-0.8pct）；需求端，Mys ...

估值修复与再重估 [Table_ReportTime] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 行业研究-周报 | | | 高升：煤炭钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 本期内容提要: [Table_Summary] [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 动力煤价格方面：本周秦港价格周环比增加，产地大同价格周环比上涨。 港口动力煤：截至 2 月 28 日，秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价 745 元/吨，周环比上涨 28 元/吨。产地动力煤：截至 2 月 28 日，陕西 榆林动力块煤（Q6000）坑口价 745 元/吨，周环比下跌 20.0 元/吨；内 蒙古东胜大块精煤车板价（Q5500）592 元/吨，周环比下跌 18.2 元/吨; 大同南郊粘煤坑口价(含税)（Q5500）603 元/吨，周环比上涨 ...

天地科技股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事科技推广和应用服务业为主的企 业。企业注册资本413858.8892万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，天地科技股份有限公司共对外投资 了30家企业，参与招投标项目2066次，财产线索方面有商标信息29条，专利信息1953条，此外企业还拥 有行政许可23个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 国家知识产权局信息显示，中煤科工开采研究院有限公司取得一项名为"基于尺寸效应的煤岩试样冲击 倾向性确定方法和装置"的专利，授权公告号CN116660023B，申请日期为2023年4月。 天眼查资料显示，中煤科工开采研究院有限公司，成立于2020年，位于北京市，是一家以从事研究和试 验发展为主的企业。企业注册资本20000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中煤科工开采研究院有限 公司共对外投资了4家企业，参与招投标项目1041次，专利信息1881条，此外企业还拥有行政许可10 个。 煤炭科学研究总院，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事研究和试验发展为主的企业。企业注册 资本100680 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tiandi Technology Co., Ltd. has obtained a patent for a "drilling device for coal mines," with the authorization announcement number CN115977550B, and the application date being December 2022 [1] - Tiandi Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2000 and is located in Beijing, primarily engaged in technology promotion and application services, with a registered capital of 4.138588892 billion RMB [1] - The company has invested in 30 enterprises, participated in 2067 bidding projects, holds 29 trademark registrations, and has 1945 patent records, along with 22 administrative licenses [1] Group 2 - China Coal Technology and Engineering Group Mining Research Institute Co., Ltd. was established in 2020 and is also located in Beijing, focusing on research and experimental development, with a registered capital of 200 million RMB [1] - This company has invested in 4 enterprises, participated in 1041 bidding projects, holds 1871 patent records, and has 10 administrative licenses [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a favorable combination of fundamentals and policies, making it a good time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reaching 717 CNY/ton, up 24 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by optimistic market expectations post-holiday and reduced supply from major coal-producing regions [11][30] - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand balance in the short term, with a medium to long-term supply gap expected to persist, reinforcing the investment logic in coal assets [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of February 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal is 717 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5% [6][30] - International coal prices have also risen, with Newcastle's FOB price for Q5500 coal at 81.5 USD/ton, up 6.5% week-on-week [6][30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 84.4%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 81.39%, down 5.3 percentage points [11][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an 18.8% decline [11][50] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 1.854 million tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a smaller increase of 0.235 million tons [50] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and others [12]

Group 1: Development Goals and Framework - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has set the annual development goals centered on "two guarantees and two strives" for 2026, marking a shift towards quality and efficiency in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) [4] - The total assets of central enterprises have surpassed 95 trillion yuan, with R&D investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive years, indicating a focus on quality-driven growth [8] - The framework aims to guide state capital towards strategic security, public welfare, and emerging industries, providing a clear action plan for reform and development [4] Group 2: Industry Integration and Collaboration - In 2025, the restructuring of central enterprises will follow a dual-track approach, focusing on strategic formation of new central enterprises and multi-field professional integration [13] - The establishment of new central enterprises, such as China Yajiang Group and China Chang'an Automobile Group, aims to serve national macro strategies and enhance industry collaboration [14] - A total of 17 units signed agreements in key areas like artificial intelligence and new materials, creating a multi-party collaborative model involving central enterprises, private enterprises, and local governments [16] Group 3: Capital Investment and Fund Management - The total scale of the China Chengtong fund system reached 710 billion yuan, with 97.99% allocated to strategic emerging industries, demonstrating a strong focus on high-tech sectors [18] - The National Investment Group manages 61 funds with a total scale of 345.1 billion yuan, having invested in 1,249 projects and facilitated 293 companies going public [20] - The investment strategy emphasizes long-term support for innovative enterprises, with over two-thirds of funds directed towards private enterprises [20] Group 4: Resource Integration and Security - Central enterprises are undergoing intensive integration in key mineral sectors, such as iron ore and rare earths, to enhance resource control and pricing power [24] - The integration aims to create a closed-loop industry chain, improving domestic supply security and reducing reliance on imports [25] - This strategic move is seen as a vital step in ensuring national resource security and enhancing the global influence of China's mineral resources [24]

Group 1: Coal Prices - Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) price increased to 692 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 7 [1] - Datong thermal coal price (Q5500) decreased to 567 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [1] - International thermal coal prices: Newcastle NEWC5500 at 76.3 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week; ARA6000 at 101.6 USD/ton, down 1.5 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Prices - Beijing Tangshan port coking coal price decreased to 1700 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] - Linfen coking coal price decreased to 1570 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 6 [2] - Australian hard coking coal price at 265.6 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption - Sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization at 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week; coking coal mine utilization at 86.67%, down 2.5 percentage points [2] - Coastal provinces' coal consumption decreased by 16.3 million tons/day, down 7.22% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] - Inland provinces' coal consumption decreased by 81.8 million tons/day, down 18.1% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Current coal market is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy support [4] - Indonesian government reduced coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, impacting global coal supply [4] - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain constrained, with potential for price recovery due to demand resilience [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Coal sector remains attractive due to high performance, cash flow, and dividends; recommended to focus on quality coal companies [6] - Suggested companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia among others [6] - Emphasis on the importance of coal assets as they are undervalued and have high potential for appreciation [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The current upturn in the mining machinery sector is expected to be more sustained, presenting investment opportunities. The sector is currently in the first phase of a three-phase cycle, which includes bulk raw material development, energy extraction, and construction utilization. Companies involved in mining machinery are likely to benefit from this upward trend [3] - The ongoing geopolitical disturbances globally are expected to enhance the high prosperity of the mining machinery industry. Unlike previous cycles, the current upturn is driven by intensified competition for resources and a stronger demand for supply chain stability, leading to increased capital expenditures by mining companies [8] - The trend towards self-sufficiency in resource supply chains presents significant growth potential for domestic mining machinery manufacturers. Currently, Chinese mining machinery holds a relatively low global market share, with only 19.21% of the top 50 global mining equipment manufacturers' sales attributed to Chinese companies [8] - The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is anticipated to drive the export of Chinese mining machinery, further increasing its market share. Increased foreign investment in energy and metal mining projects under the BRI is expected to boost demand for related equipment [8] Summary by Sections - **Investment Suggestions and Targets**: The report identifies several companies that are expected to benefit from the mining machinery industry's upturn, including XCMG Machinery, NPE Mining Machinery, SANY International, Shantui, Tongli Co., and Northern Heavy Industries [3] - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights that the mining machinery industry's current high prosperity is influenced by rising prices of bulk products and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but emphasizes that the key factor is the geopolitical landscape and its impact on capital expenditures [8] - **Market Share Analysis**: The report notes that the top five global mining machinery companies are all foreign, with a combined sales figure of approximately $42.2 billion, indicating a significant opportunity for Chinese manufacturers to increase their market share through competitive advantages [8]

Group 1 - The core concept of the article emphasizes the dual drive of AI and policy in the development of the intelligent mining industry, which is projected to be a trillion-dollar market opportunity [1][2] - Intelligent mining is defined as a comprehensive system that integrates IoT, cloud computing, big data, AI, and smart equipment to achieve safe, efficient, green, and economical resource extraction [1][2] - The industry has been elevated to a national strategy since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with policies focusing on mandatory timelines and standards for intelligent construction, particularly in coal mining [2][5] Group 2 - The technological framework of intelligent mining features a "cloud-edge-end" collaboration, where sensors and smart equipment are deployed at the mining site for real-time data processing and decision-making [3][25] - Current technology is at a stage of "intermediate breakthroughs and dual-end development," with communication and data collection being relatively mature, while AI applications are still in exploratory phases [4][26] - The industry is driven by strong regulatory pressures, economic efficiency demands, technological advancements, and long-term structural changes in society [27][28][30][31] Group 3 - Future trends indicate that the integration of AI large models and digital twins will become central to mining operations, enhancing decision-making and operational efficiency [9][31] - The shift towards fully automated operations is expected to expand from localized applications to systemic implementations, with significant advancements in autonomous transportation and remote-controlled operations [10][32] - The industry is moving towards service-oriented and green transformations, with business models evolving from one-time product sales to ongoing service offerings [11][33][34] Group 4 - The barriers to entry in the intelligent mining sector include technological, financial, and regulatory challenges, which must be navigated for successful market participation [35][36] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the intelligent mining industry, including market size, supply-demand dynamics, and competitive landscape, highlighting key players and their strategies [38][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [10][11] - The coal supply is expected to tighten due to domestic supply constraints and Indonesia's reduction in coal production targets, which will support a stable recovery in coal prices throughout the year [10][11] - The investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10][11] - High-quality coal companies are characterized by high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-15%, and dividend yields exceeding 5% [10][11] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, and public funds currently underweight in coal holdings [10][11] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Prices - As of January 31, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 691 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 74.5 USD/ton, up 0.7 USD/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1780 CNY/ton [31] 2. Coal Supply and Demand - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 88.3%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [10][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 8.30 thousand tons/day (-1.8%) [50] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 7.70 thousand tons/day (-3.3%) [50] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector saw a 3.98% increase this week, outperforming the broader market [13][16] - The thermal coal segment rose by 4.07%, while the coking coal segment increased by 3.92% [16] 4. Future Outlook - The coal supply bottleneck is expected to persist, necessitating new high-quality capacity planning to meet medium to long-term energy demands [11] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook due to macroeconomic improvements and regulatory changes [11]