未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 乘用车观点更新： 短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘用 车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。 国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰 动不敏感的个股江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想 等；出口主线优先配置海外体系成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇 瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 回顾2025： 25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出口34.1万，同 比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69万辆，估算 25年底淘汰至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求回升共振。 展望2026： 我们预计26年重卡内销有望兑现乐观情形的80-85万，同比+3%。 继续推荐中国重 汽A/H+潍柴动力+福田汽车+一汽解放+中集车辆等重卡头部车企！ 客车观点更新： 2026年以旧换新政策落地，我们认为：1）客车政策略超预期，市场之前对于客车补贴 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records on Commercial Vehicle Industry Industry Overview - The commercial vehicle industry is experiencing a recovery phase, particularly in the heavy-duty truck (重卡) segment, driven by the "old-for-new" policy which is expected to continue into 2026. [1][2][7] Key Points on Heavy-Duty Trucks - **Sales Growth**: In 2025, heavy-duty truck wholesale sales reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Registration volume was 799,000 units, up 32.7%. [1][4] - **Export Performance**: Heavy-duty truck exports totaled 341,000 units in 2025, marking a 17.4% increase. Key growth regions include Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with Nigeria showing significant growth. [1][5] - **Fuel Structure Changes**: Diesel truck demand is declining, while natural gas truck penetration is stabilizing. New energy heavy-duty truck sales reached 229,000 units, up 182%, with a penetration rate of 28.8%. [1][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The heavy-duty truck market is characterized by high concentration, with the top four companies maintaining a market share of approximately 90%. China National Heavy Duty Truck Group leads with a market share of 20%-30%. [5] Key Points on Buses - **Sales Trends**: The bus industry is entering a new cycle characterized by stable domestic demand and high export growth. In 2025, wholesale sales of large and medium buses reached 122,000 units, a 5% increase, while exports grew by 34.6% to 59,000 units. [1][2][3] - **New Energy Buses**: The export of new energy buses is rapidly increasing, with a projected growth of 34% in 2026. [3][12] - **Market Recovery**: The bus market is expected to see a dual resonance of export and domestic sales, with a forecasted growth of 20% in wholesale volume to 146,000 units in 2026. [12][13] Investment Recommendations - **Heavy-Duty Trucks**: Focus on leading companies with advantages in both export and new energy sectors, such as Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group. [2][18] - **Buses**: Look for companies with strong export capabilities and product advantages, such as Yutong Bus and King Long. [2][18] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include changes in commercial vehicle policy subsidies, uncertainties in global demand, and fluctuations in raw material prices affecting industry profits. [21] Additional Insights - The heavy-duty truck market is expected to benefit from the natural scrapping of older vehicles and supportive policies, which will enhance domestic demand. [7][17] - The bus market is projected to recover steadily, driven by policy support and increasing export opportunities, particularly in Europe and Latin America. [14][16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections for the commercial vehicle industry, highlighting growth opportunities and potential risks.

www.leadleo.com 中国汽车行业调研简报|2025/11 报告标签：无人物流车、Robotaxi、市场玩家、跨界玩家、竞争格局、发展趋势 2025年11月 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。未经头豹 研究院事先书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名 称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院开展商业活动。 1 头豹调研简报|2025/11 汽车行业 Q1：什么是无人物流车？进入2025年以来，无人物流车市场为何受到广泛关 注？ ◼ 无人物流车是一种基于自动驾驶技术的智能运输工具，是L4级自动驾驶技术的商业 化落地场景之一 无人物流车是无人驾驶技术在物流领域的重要落地载体，是具备在封闭区域和城市道路 上自动行驶功能、可实时监测周围环境、能正确识别和响应各种交通标志、标线 ...

1月，轻客市场表现不佳。尤其在上月4.4万辆年度最高销量映衬下，更显黯淡；而且，本月不足2.7万辆的销量表现，直接突破了2025年全年的最低值（2 月2.8万辆）；同环比双降，可谓开局不利。 | | | 2026年1月轻客Top10企业销量排名(单位:辆) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 指标名称 | 本月完成 | 市场份额% | 环比增长* | 比同期增长* | | 1 | 上汽大通 | 7002 | 25. 95 | 1.97 | 21. 77 | | 2 | 江铃汽车 | 6519 | 24. 16 | -34. 22 | 28. 45 | | 3 | 长安汽车 | 4102 | 15. 2 | -71.63 | -58. 69 | | 4 | 福田汽车 | 2926 | 10. 84 | -11. 76 | 3.54 | | 5 | 南京依维柯 | 1608 | 5.96 | 32. 56 | -26. 94 | | ნ | 江淮汽车 | 1475 | 5. 47 | 12. 25 | 34. 7 | | 7 | 厦门金龙 | ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院新能源客车研究小组发布的《中国新能源汽车行业市场前瞻与投 资战略规划分析报告》 新能源客车是当前我国汽车行业企业在新能源领域研发生产和竞争的重点领域之一。近年来在国家不断 出台鼓励新能源客车发展政策的情况下，国内新能源客车市场得以快速发展。目前，我国新能源客车产 业的上市公司数量较多，分布在各产业链环节。其中，涉及核心的新能源客车整车制造的上市公司主要 有宇通客车、中通客车、亚星客车、安凯客车、福田汽车、金龙汽车、比亚迪、东风汽车、长安汽车 等。 | 产业链环节 | 公司简称(股票代码) | 要点 | 关联度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 首钢股份(000959.SZ) | 具备完整的钢材生产工艺流程,高端板材产品处于国内 领先地位 | ★ | | | 包钢股份(600010.SH) | 中国重要的钢铁工业基地、世界主要的稀土工业基地 | ★ | | | 赣铬锂业(002460.SZ) | 全球第三大及中国前列的锂化合物生产商及全球前列的 | ★ | | 基础原材料 | | 程化出壁巡 | | | | 天著股份(6052 ...

国家知识产权局信息显示，厦门金龙汽车新能源科技有限公司申请一项名为"一种基于实时动态参数的 高压配电系统电耗管理方法"的专利，公开号CN121562963A，申请日期为2025年10月。 专利摘要显示，本发明公开了一种基于实时动态参数的高压配电系统电耗管理方法，涉及电动汽车技术 领域，该方法核心在于通过多源数据融合与动态补偿算法，构建高压配电系统的电耗预测模型，电耗预 测模型的输入特征包括至少两个关键参数，输出标签为通过细化分项计算和损耗补偿所修正的整车总电 耗，因此具有预测精度高、预测泛化能力强等优点，为高压配电系统实现电耗的精细化动态管理提供了 准确、可靠的数据支撑。此外，该方法通过设定多个风险判断条件并结合高压附件分级调控方案实现潜 在能耗危机识别和能量分配管理，确保安全功能优先响应，有效避免因能耗过载引发的续航骤降问题， 显著提升风险调控的安全性与可靠性。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 天眼查资料显示，厦门金龙汽车新能源科技有限公司，成立于2016年，位于厦门市，是一家以从事研究 和试验发展为主 ...

Core Insights - The domestic commercial vehicle market is expected to see strong growth in 2025, driven by the rise of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and vehicle scrapping policies [1][5] - January 2023 saw a significant increase in commercial vehicle sales, reaching 200,000 units, a 19% year-on-year increase, although down 34% month-on-month [1][5] - The penetration rate of NEVs in commercial vehicles is projected to reach 29% in 2025, up from 20% in 2024, indicating a robust growth trend [1][11] Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - In January 2023, commercial vehicle sales reached 200,000 units, marking a 19% increase year-on-year and a new high for January in recent years [1][5] - The total commercial vehicle sales for 2025 are projected to be 3.1 million units, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth [5][4] - The market has shown a recovery from previous years' declines, with 2023-2024 sales stabilizing around 2.85 million units [5] New Energy Commercial Vehicle Sales - The sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 91,000 units in 2025, representing a 57% year-on-year increase [7][9] - In January 2026, new energy commercial vehicle sales are expected to hit 50,000 units, a 63% increase year-on-year [7][9] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in commercial vehicles is projected to be 26% in January 2026, up 7 percentage points from the previous year [11][9] New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles was around 3% from 2019 to 2021, increasing to 9% in 2022 and 11% in 2023 [11] - By 2024, the penetration rate is expected to reach 20%, and 29% by 2025, indicating a strong upward trend [11][1] - In January 2026, the penetration rate for new energy vehicles in trucks is projected to be 21%, while for buses it is expected to be 54% [13][11] Market Structure and Competition - The commercial vehicle market is primarily supported by light and heavy truck manufacturers, with companies like Foton, Wuling, and Sinotruk leading in sales [14] - Heavy trucks have shown significant improvement in sales due to subsidy policies, with electric heavy trucks gaining traction [16][15] - The light truck market is also seeing strong performance, particularly in the Southwest and Northwest regions, with increasing penetration of new energy vehicles [17][18]

2026年1月份，我国客车市场同比下降6%，整体销售3.52万辆。作为客车市场中占比最大的细分市场，在2025年4-12月收获同比"9 连增"的轻客市场表现如何？能否收获"开门红"？ 2026年首月，轻客行业格局有何变化？ 请看第一商用车网的分析报道。 第一商用车网最新获悉，根据中汽协数据（企业开票数口径，非终端实销口径，下同），2026年1月份，我国客车市场（含底盘）销售 3.52辆，环比下降45%，同比下降6%。其中，轻型客车销售2.70万辆，环比下降39%，同比下降12%，同比增幅遭遇转负，这一轮 长达9个月的连增势头就此终结。 大通/江铃份额超20%争冠，江淮/福田/厦门金龙等逆增 2026年1月份，轻客市场整体销量同比下降12%，主流企业有增有降。 | 1月排名 | 企业/意计 | 1月销量 | 月度份额 | | | 同比增长 本年累计 同期累计 累计增长 | | 累计份额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2.70万 | 100% | -12% | 2.70万 | 3.06万 | -12% | 100% ...

Core Viewpoint - The public transportation group of Dongying City has announced the results of its procurement project for new energy buses, with suppliers selected for different packages of the project [1]. Group 1: Procurement Results - Package A and C were awarded to Geely Sichuan Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd., which will supply 20 units of approximately 10.5-meter new energy buses and 20 units of over 8.5-meter new energy buses [1]. - Package B was awarded to Xiamen Jinlong United Automotive Industry Co., Ltd., which will supply 20 units of approximately 10.5-meter new energy buses [1]. - The budget amounts for packages A, B, and C were set at 20 million yuan, 20 million yuan, and 17 million yuan respectively [1]. Group 2: Project Details - The project is titled "Dongying City Public Transportation Group Co., Ltd. New Energy Bus Procurement Project" [6]. - The procurement announcement was published on January 15, 2026, and the evaluation date was February 12, 2026 [6][7]. - Contact information for the procurement entity includes Mr. Feng, located at 448 Jiaozhou Road, Dongying City, with a contact number of 0546-8308103 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [35]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the passenger vehicle sector, driven by the implementation of subsidy policies and a shift in consumer demand. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers that are less sensitive to policy fluctuations, such as Jianghuai Automobile and Geely [25][26]. - In the heavy truck segment, the report anticipates a positive outlook for 2026, projecting domestic sales to reach 800,000 to 850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [30][28]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the continuation of subsidy policies [30][29]. - The motorcycle sector is projected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with a significant focus on the large-displacement motorcycle market [26]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - Short-term recovery is anticipated in the passenger vehicle sector due to established subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and companies less affected by policy changes [25][26]. - Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, and BYD, among others [25]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, wholesale heavy truck sales reached 1.144 million units, a 26.8% increase year-on-year, with domestic sales of 799,000 units, up 32.8% [30]. - The report recommends leading heavy truck manufacturers such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang [30][28]. Buses - The bus market saw a slight decline in 2025, with sales of 29,000 units, down 6% year-on-year. However, a rebound is expected in 2026, with a projected 40% increase in sales [30][29]. - Recommended companies include Yutong Bus and King Long [30]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is forecasted to grow, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, driven by large-displacement models [26]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [26].