2025 年 12 月 19 日 政府性基金支出当月同比转正 固定收益研究团队 ——2025 年 11 月财政数据点评 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 事件：财政部公布 2025 年 11 月财政数据，1-11 月全国一般公共预算收入同比增 长 0.8%（前值为+0.8%，下同），支出同比增长 1.4%（+2.0%）；1-11 月全国政府 性基金预算收入同比下降 4.9%（-2.8%），支出同比增长 13.7%（+15.4%）。 11 月财政数据的关注点 税收收入延续正增，非税收入降幅收窄。11 月税收收入同比增长 2.8%（+8.6%）， 虽增幅有所回落，但已连续 8 个月保持正增长，11 月企业所得税与个人所得税 回落或为当月税收收入增幅放缓的主要原因。11 月证券交易印花税同比增长 2.3%，增幅在 11 月权益市场震荡调整与 2024 年同期基数回升影响下增幅放缓。 在投资于物回报率下降的情况，十五五规划建议提出的坚持投资于物和投资于 人紧 ...

National General Public Budget Revenue - National general public budget revenue for January to October reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [2] - Tax revenue amounted to 153,364 billion yuan, growing by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 33,126 billion yuan, declining by 3.1% [2] - Central government revenue was 81,856 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 104,634 billion yuan, up 2.1% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 58,858 billion yuan, an increase of 4% [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 14,390 billion yuan, rising by 2.4% [3] - Corporate income tax reached 39,182 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [4] - Personal income tax was 13,363 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 11.5% [5] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax amounted to 15,007 billion yuan, down 4.9% [6] - Export tax rebates were 18,121 billion yuan, increasing by 6.9% [7] - Stamp duty revenue was 3,781 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 29.5%, including securities transaction stamp duty at 1,629 billion yuan, up 88.1% [9] National General Public Budget Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure for January to October was 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2% [17] - Central government expenditure was 34,727 billion yuan, growing by 6.3% year-on-year, while local government expenditure was 191,098 billion yuan, up 1.2% [17] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 34,117 billion yuan, increasing by 4.7% [18] - Social security and employment expenditure was 37,742 billion yuan, up 9.3% [20] - Debt interest payment expenditure was 10,952 billion yuan, showing a growth of 4.2% [20] Government Fund Budget Revenue - National government fund budget revenue for January to October was 34,473 billion yuan, a decline of 2.8% [21] - Local government fund budget revenue was 30,855 billion yuan, down 3.3%, with state land use rights transfer income at 24,982 billion yuan, decreasing by 7.4% [21] Government Fund Budget Expenditure - National government fund budget expenditure was 80,892 billion yuan, increasing by 15.4% [21] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 72,328 billion yuan, up 7.3%, with related expenditures from state land use rights transfer income at 33,752 billion yuan, down 6.5% [21]

Fiscal Overview - In September 2025, the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure were in a tight balance, with expenditure growing at a relatively fast pace, providing support to the fundamentals [2] - The general public budget revenue in September increased by 2.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by accelerated tax revenue growth [2][4] - The general public budget expenditure in September grew by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous month's growth of 0.8% [2][4] Government Fund Budget - The government fund budget showed a recovery in September, with revenue increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a previous decline of 5.7% [2][8] - The expenditure growth rate for the government fund budget slowed to 0.4% in September, down from 19.8% in the previous month [2][9] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue for September reached 15,678 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, continuing the recovery trend [4] - The tax revenue for the first nine months of 2025 grew by 0.7%, a significant increase from the previous value of 0.02% [5] - Personal income tax saw a notable increase of 9.7%, attributed to enhanced tax collection measures since 2025 [5] Expenditure Trends - National public budget expenditure in September was 28,740 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [7] - The expenditure completion rate for the first nine months reached 70.1%, with social security and employment, health, and education sectors showing faster spending progress [7] Regional and Sectoral Performance - Among 31 provinces, 27 reported positive growth in tax revenue, with only a few regions affected by declining prices of major commodities [5] - Key strategic areas such as social security, technology, and education received substantial funding, with growth rates of 10%, 6.5%, and 5.4% respectively [5] Policy Implications - The acceleration of new policy financial tools and the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the central government to local governments are expected to support economic recovery [3] - The focus on effective investment and project construction in major economic provinces is anticipated to enhance overall economic performance [3]

National General Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure - The national general public budget revenue for the first three quarters reached 163,876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5% [2] - Tax revenue amounted to 132,664 billion yuan, increasing by 0.7% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 31,212 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.4% [2] - Central government revenue was 70,837 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 93,039 billion yuan, up 1.8% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 52,271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 12,934 billion yuan, growing by 2.2% [2] - Corporate income tax reached 32,527 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.8% [3] - Personal income tax was 11,799 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 9.7% [3] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 13,465 billion yuan, down 5.7% year-on-year [4] - Export tax rebates were 17,018 billion yuan, increasing by 8.6% [5] - Stamp duty revenue was 3,142 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 34.5%, including a 103.4% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [7] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure for the first three quarters was 208,064 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year [16] - Central government expenditure was 31,008 billion yuan, increasing by 7.3%, while local government expenditure was 177,056 billion yuan, up 2.4% [16] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 31,599 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [16] - Social security and employment expenditure was 34,928 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10% [17] - Health expenditure totaled 15,712 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [17] - Environmental protection expenditure was 208 billion yuan, up 13.8% [14] Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue for the first three quarters was 30,717 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [18] - Local government fund budget revenue was 27,441 billion yuan, decreasing by 0.6%, with land use rights transfer revenue at 22,302 billion yuan, down 4.2% [18] - Government fund budget expenditure was 74,924 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 23.9% [18] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 8,090 billion yuan, increasing by 2.6 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 66,834 billion yuan, up 14.9% [18]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article is the financial performance of China's general public budget and government fund budget from January to August 2025, highlighting both revenue and expenditure trends. General Public Budget Revenue - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14,819.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [2] - Tax revenue accounted for 12,108.5 billion yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 2,711.3 billion yuan, up by 1.5% [2] - Central government revenue was 6,426.8 billion yuan, down by 1.7% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 8,393.0 billion yuan, increasing by 1.8% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 4,738.9 billion yuan, up by 3.2% [3] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 1,152.3 billion yuan, increasing by 2% [4] - Corporate income tax reached 3,147.7 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.3% [5] - Personal income tax was 1,054.7 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 8.9% [6] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 1,177.0 billion yuan, down by 6.7% [7] - Export tax rebates were 1,576.6 billion yuan, up by 9% [8] - Stamp duty revenue was 284.4 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 27.4%, particularly securities transaction stamp duty which rose by 81.7% to 118.7 billion yuan [11] General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure for the national general public budget was 17,932.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [20] - Central government expenditure was 2,657.0 billion yuan, up by 8%, while local government expenditure was 15,275.4 billion yuan, increasing by 2.3% [20] - Key expenditure areas included education (27,078 billion yuan, +5.6%), social security and employment (30,723 billion yuan, +10%), and health (13,717 billion yuan, +5.1%) [21][24] Government Fund Budget Revenue - Government fund budget revenue from January to August was 26,449 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year [24] - Central government fund revenue was 2,933 billion yuan, up by 0.6%, while local government fund revenue was 23,516 billion yuan, down by 1.6% [24] - Revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights was 19,263 billion yuan, down by 4.7% [24] Government Fund Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure for the government fund budget was 62,602 billion yuan, a significant increase of 30% year-on-year [24] - Central government fund expenditure was 7,609 billion yuan, up by 3.1 times, while local government fund expenditure was 54,993 billion yuan, increasing by 18.8% [24] - Expenditure related to state-owned land use rights was 26,732 billion yuan, down by 4.1% [24]

National General Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue reached 135839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Tax revenue amounted to 110933 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, while non-tax revenue was 24906 billion yuan, increasing by 2% [2] - Central government revenue was 58538 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, while local government revenue was 77301 billion yuan, up 1.8% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax collected was 42551 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [3] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 10213 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [4] - Corporate income tax revenue was 30566 billion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year [5] - Personal income tax reached 9279 billion yuan, marking an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [6] - Import goods value-added tax and consumption tax were 10300 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year [6] - Export tax rebates amounted to 14065 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year [7] - Stamp duty revenue was 2559 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 20.7%, including a 62.5% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [10] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure from January to July was 160737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [17] - Central government expenditure was 23327 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, while local government expenditure was 137410 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [17] Major Expenditure Items - Education expenditure reached 24438 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [18] - Social security and employment expenditure was 27621 billion yuan, with a notable increase of 9.8% [20] - Health expenditure totaled 12402 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year [21] - Expenditure on urban and rural community services decreased by 3.5% to 11185 billion yuan [21] National Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue was 23124 billion yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year [21] - Central government fund budget revenue was 2596 billion yuan, increasing by 8.8% year-on-year, while local government fund budget revenue was 20528 billion yuan, down 1.8% [21] - Total government fund budget expenditure was 54287 billion yuan, a significant increase of 31.7% year-on-year [21] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 7109 billion yuan, up 4.5 times year-on-year, while local government fund budget expenditure was 47178 billion yuan, increasing by 18.1% [21]

National General Public Budget Revenue and Expenditure - In the first seven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 135,839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [2] - Tax revenue amounted to 110,933 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 24,906 billion yuan, increasing by 2% [2] - Central government budget revenue was 58,538 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, while local government budget revenue was 77,301 billion yuan, up 1.8% [2] Major Tax Revenue Items - Domestic value-added tax generated 42,551 billion yuan, an increase of 3% year-on-year [2] - Domestic consumption tax totaled 10,213 billion yuan, rising by 2.1% [3] - Corporate income tax was 30,566 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.4% [4] - Personal income tax reached 9,279 billion yuan, with an increase of 8.8% [5] - Import VAT and consumption tax amounted to 10,300 billion yuan, down 6.1%, while customs duties were 1,316 billion yuan, decreasing by 6.5% [6] - Export tax rebates were 14,065 billion yuan, increasing by 9.7% [7] - Stamp duty revenue was 2,559 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 20.7%, including a 62.5% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [9] National General Public Budget Expenditure - Total expenditure for the first seven months was 160,737 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [16] - Central government expenditure was 23,327 billion yuan, up 8.8%, while local government expenditure was 137,410 billion yuan, increasing by 2.5% [17] - Key expenditure areas included education (24,438 billion yuan, +5.7%), social security and employment (27,621 billion yuan, +9.8%), and health (12,402 billion yuan, +5.3%) [17] Government Fund Budget Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund budget revenue was 23,124 billion yuan, a decline of 0.7% year-on-year [21] - Central government fund budget revenue was 2,596 billion yuan, increasing by 8.8%, while local government fund budget revenue was 20,528 billion yuan, down 1.8% [21] - Government fund budget expenditure reached 54,287 billion yuan, a significant increase of 31.7% [22] - Central government fund budget expenditure was 7,109 billion yuan, up 4.5 times, while local government fund budget expenditure was 47,178 billion yuan, increasing by 18.1% [22]

Group 1 - Bonds are debt securities issued by governments, financial institutions, and corporations to raise funds, promising to pay interest at a certain rate and repay the principal under agreed conditions [1] - The most common types of bonds include fixed-rate bonds, floating-rate bonds, and zero-coupon bonds, which can be traded in the market, forming a bond market [1] - Government bonds are issued to cover government expenditures, invest in public works, and manage fiscal deficits, with investors receiving interest during the holding period and principal at maturity [1] Group 2 - Different types of government bonds include national bonds, special national bonds, ultra-long special national bonds, special bonds, general bonds, and refinancing bonds, each with unique characteristics regarding issuance, purpose, and management [2] - National bonds are issued by the central government to raise fiscal funds, typically to cover deficits or invest in public infrastructure and key projects [3] - Special national bonds are issued for specific policies and purposes, not suitable for ordinary investors, and do not require budget arrangements for repayment [4] Group 3 - Ultra-long special national bonds have a maturity of over 10 years and are used for long-term strategic projects, with a planned issuance scale of 1.3 trillion yuan in 2025 for major strategic implementations and key area security capability construction [5] - Local government bonds are issued by local governments to raise funds for local construction, categorized into general and special bonds, with the latter being used for specific projects with expected returns [6][9] - General bonds are issued to cover public fiscal deficits, while special bonds are for projects with certain returns, repaid through corresponding government fund revenues [9] Group 4 - Refinancing bonds are issued to raise funds for repaying existing debts and adjusting debt structures, with a focus on repaying old debts rather than funding new projects [9][10] - Special refinancing bonds have evolved to allow funds to be used for repaying existing local debts, including hidden debts, thus becoming an important tool for local debt management [10]

Revenue Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,155.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%[2] - Tax revenue amounted to 929.15 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 3.7% to 226.51 billion yuan[2] - In June, the general public budget revenue showed a monthly year-on-year decline of 0.3%, compared to a previous value of 0.1%[3] Expenditure Insights - Total general public budget expenditure reached 1,412.71 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%[2] - Central government expenditure was 199.14 billion yuan, up 9%, while local government expenditure grew by 2.6% to 1,213.57 billion yuan[2] - In June, general public expenditure increased by only 0.4% year-on-year, marking the slowest growth since 2019[3][14] Fund Budget Performance - Government fund budget revenue surged by 20.8% in June, primarily driven by a 21.9% increase in land transfer income[4] - Government fund expenditure in June skyrocketed by 79.2%, with land-related expenditures rising to 5.9%[4] - For the first half of the year, the second budget's revenue decreased by 2.4%, while expenditure grew by 30%[4] Overall Fiscal Trends - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate was significantly up at 17.6% in June, compared to 4% previously[5] - Broad fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in June, reversing a previous decline of 1.2%[5] - Year-to-date, broad fiscal revenue has decreased by 0.6%, with a completion rate of 47.8%[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In 2025 from January to April, the general public budget revenue showed marginal improvement with economic recovery, but structural pressure remained, and subsequent policies were needed to stabilize revenue. The general public budget expenditure accelerated expansion, reflecting active fiscal policy and continuous efforts to stabilize growth. The government - funded budget revenue was still in negative growth but improved, and the expenditure accelerated, continuing to play a key role in stabilizing investment [3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - From January to April 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.0616 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Tax revenue was 6.5556 trillion yuan, down 2.1% year - on - year, and non - tax revenue was 1.506 trillion yuan, up 7.7% year - on - year. Central revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and local revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [35] - Main tax revenue items: domestic VAT was 2.6254 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; domestic consumption tax was 650.2 billion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; enterprise income tax was 1.7341 trillion yuan, down 3.1% year - on - year; personal income tax was 537.6 billion yuan, up 7.4% year - on - year; etc. [36][37][38] General Public Budget Expenditure - From January to April 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 9.3581 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Central expenditure increased by 9% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 3.9% year - on - year [46] - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 1.4481 trillion yuan, up 7.4% year - on - year; science and technology expenditure was 1.1505 trillion yuan, up 3.9% year - on - year; social security and employment expenditure was 4.2114 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year - on - year; etc. [47][48][50] Government - Funded Budget Revenue - From January to April 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 1.2586 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%. Central revenue increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and local revenue decreased by 8% year - on - year. State - owned land use right transfer income was 934 billion yuan, down 11.4% year - on - year [57] Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - From January to April 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 2.6136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. Central expenditure increased by 75% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 16.6% year - on - year. Expenditure related to state - owned land use right transfer income was 1.3647 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year - on - year [58][59]