Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that central banks may purchase significant amounts of gold in November to diversify reserves against geopolitical and financial risks, maintaining a price forecast of $4,900 by the end of 2026 [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 55%, driven by economic and geopolitical concerns, increased inflows into exchange-traded funds, and expectations of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - In September, central banks purchased 64 tons of gold, up from 21 tons in August [1] Group 2: Oil Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs has lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively, due to strong global supply (excluding Russia) [2] - UBS expects Brent crude oil prices to fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel, with a year-end target of $62 per barrel and a 2026 target of $67 per barrel [3] Group 3: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - UBS forecasts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by factors such as innovation and a projected 14% upside for the MSCI China Index by year-end [4] - Earnings per share are expected to grow by 10% in 2026, supported by anti-involution measures and a decrease in depreciation expenses [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Barclays economists suggest that the USD/JPY exchange rate may continue to rise, recommending investors to remain long on USD/JPY due to Japan's fiscal policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Policies - Goldman Sachs Asset Management predicts that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026, while the European Central Bank may maintain rates and the Bank of England may resume cuts in December [6] - Morgan Stanley anticipates further rate cuts from the European Central Bank in the first half of next year, with a target for the 10-year German bond yield at approximately 2.45% by the end of 2026 [8] Group 6: Semiconductor Sector - Galaxy Securities asserts that the long-term growth logic for the semiconductor sector remains intact despite recent underperformance, emphasizing supply chain security and domestic substitution trends [11] Group 7: AI and Consumer Electronics - Galaxy Securities highlights the potential for smart glasses to become a major consumer electronics category, following the entry of major tech companies into the AI glasses market [12] Group 8: Multi-Modal AI Trends - CITIC Securities identifies the shift towards native multi-modal architectures as a pivotal point for the industry, suggesting investment opportunities in both foundational and application layers [13] Group 9: Energy Demand and Coal Prices - Huatai Securities predicts that electricity consumption growth in October may exceed 10%, supporting a positive outlook for thermal coal prices in the fourth quarter [14]

⚫ 一、广义财政收入回落，支出增速显著放 缓 宏观研究报告 增量资金有望加速到位 —— 2025 年 1-10 月财政数据解读 2025 年 11 月 17 日 ⚫ 1-10 月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 1.7% 月月月 0.7% 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月月月月月月 月月月月 月月月 月月10 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月 月月月月月月 月月月月月 月月月月月月月月 11 -12 月月月月月月 月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月月月 月 ⚫ 2025 月 1-10 月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月月 0.2% 月月月 0.3% 月月月月月月月月月月 5.2% 月月月 7.9% 月月月月月月月月月月月月月 月月月月月月月月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 41st week of 2025, including the issuance and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, as well as their issuance progress [4][8][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Special Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 16 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 20.1 billion [4]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.6%, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 0 billion [4][5]. New General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 0 billion, a decrease of 9.9 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned issuance for next week is 0 billion [8]. - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 84.0%, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 0 billion [8][10]. Local Bonds - As of October 12, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6% [13]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -24.6 billion, a decrease of 87.8 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -19.8 billion [14]. National Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was 184.4 billion, an increase of 184.4 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -38.4 billion [17]. - As of October 12, the net financing progress of national bonds was 83.4% [19]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 159.8 billion, an increase of 96.6 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing for next week is -58.2 billion [21]. - As of October 12, the net financing of national bonds plus the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.5% [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 39th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, net financing scale, and their changes compared to the previous week and historical data for various types of bonds [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bonds issued were 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 82.7% [9] - This week, new general bonds issued were 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.1% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 80.6% [18] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 81.7% [20]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in total revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of improvement in new orders, particularly in the second quarter, indicating potential recovery in performance in the latter half of the year [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 512.50 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.83 billion yuan, down 17.17% year-over-year [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 263.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.61% year-over-year but an increase of 5.59% quarter-over-quarter. Net profit for Q2 was 5.80 billion yuan, down 14.65% year-over-year and 3.71% quarter-over-quarter, falling short of expectations [1]. - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for H1 2025 was 8.53%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, infrastructure revenue was 436.25 billion yuan, down 7.78% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 7.37%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - The company reported varied performance across sectors, with real estate and equipment manufacturing revenues increasing by 7.78% and 14.39% respectively, while design consulting saw a slight decline [2]. Order Intake - The company secured new orders totaling 1.11 trillion yuan in H1 2025, an increase of 2.8% year-over-year, with significant growth in overseas new orders, which rose by 78.6% in Q2 [4]. - Q2 2025 new orders improved significantly, with a year-over-year increase of 20%, indicating a recovery trend [4]. Cost and Expenses - Financial expenses increased significantly, primarily due to higher interest expenses and reduced investment income from infrastructure projects, leading to an overall increase in the expense ratio [3]. - The company’s net profit margin for H1 2025 was 2.31%, down 0.31 percentage points year-over-year, with a cash flow pressure reflected in a negative operating cash flow of 79.6 billion yuan [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards due to increased competition and pressure on profit margins, projecting net profits of 23.8 billion yuan, 22.9 billion yuan, and 22.6 billion yuan respectively [5]. - The target price for A/H shares has been adjusted to 7.71 yuan and 5.50 HKD, maintaining an "overweight" rating for both A and H shares [5].

Group 1 - The issuance of new special bonds has significantly accelerated since May, with 100 new bonds issued by May 28, totaling 299.06252 billion yuan, which is more than three times the issuance in April [1] - From January to April, the issuance of new special bonds was 567.8138 billion yuan, 3465.8818 billion yuan, 2307.5479 billion yuan, and 883.2398 billion yuan respectively, surpassing 1 trillion yuan in total for the year [1] - Key investment areas for the special bonds include municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and public services [1] Group 2 - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14,340.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while infrastructure investment grew by 6.0%, outpacing overall investment growth [2] - Notable growth rates in specific sectors include 24.6% in air transport, 19.5% in railway transport, 16.1% in water management, and 14.1% in information transmission [2] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds and the expansion of new special bond issuance are expected to increase available funds for fiscal spending, indicating a continued focus on stable growth in fiscal policy [2][3] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has completed the selection of approximately 38,000 projects for local government special bonds, with a demand of about 5.9 trillion yuan for 2024, laying a solid foundation for this year's issuance [3] - A recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds to maintain necessary fiscal spending intensity [3] - The NDRC has indicated that the issuance of special bonds will be accelerated to support economic growth and major project construction [3]

Consumption - The consumption market shows a divergence between goods and services, with service consumption, particularly travel, experiencing a surge during the summer[2] - In the automotive sector, wholesale and retail sales increased compared to the previous week, with year-on-year growth rates also improving[4] - Food prices have seen a decline, with agricultural product prices dropping, while the price of Moutai liquor fell by 1.1% week-on-week[4] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative issuance of CNY 2.6 trillion by July 19, 2025, marking the highest issuance for the same period since 2020[18] - New home sales in 30 cities continued to decline seasonally, with a year-on-year drop of 25.7%, while the proportion of second-hand homes rose to a historical high of 72%[18] Trade - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) surged by 29.9% week-on-week, driven by increased shipments of Brazilian iron ore and tight shipping capacity[21] - Port operations have become more frequent, with the number of ships docking for imports and exports increasing compared to the previous week[21] Production - Overall production is improving, with electricity demand rising due to high temperatures, and industries such as steel, petrochemicals, and automobiles showing increased operating rates[23] - The operating rate for PTA and polyester has also risen, indicating a recovery in the petrochemical sector[26] Prices - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are both showing marginal increases, with industrial prices rising by 1.2% week-on-week[37] - The price of carbon lithium has increased by 4.5% week-on-week, while prices for PTA and polyester continue to decline[37] Liquidity - The US dollar index rose by 59 basis points, surpassing 98 points, reflecting the resilience of the US economy[40] - The central bank's net liquidity injection was CNY 13.011 trillion, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity in the market[39]

Group 1 - Local government bond issuance has significantly increased in the first half of this year, with a total issuance of approximately 54,902 billion yuan, representing a growth of about 57.2% compared to 34,928 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - The issuance of new special bonds has also accelerated, with a total of approximately 21,607 billion yuan issued in the first half, a 44.7% increase from 14,935 billion yuan in the previous year [1][3] - The overall scale of local bond issuance in the first half has reached a historical high, providing strong financial support for economic development [1] Group 2 - The government work report for this year has set a target for local government special bonds at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year, focusing on investment construction, land acquisition, and settling local government debts [3] - The expansion of special bond issuance is aimed at bolstering infrastructure investment, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth, with significant implications for stabilizing growth, promoting investment, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The issuance pace of local bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, with an anticipated issuance of nearly 20,000 billion yuan in a single quarter, reflecting a trend of front-loading special bond issuance [4]

Group 1 - In the first half of the year, local government bond issuance reached approximately 54,902 billion yuan, a 57.2% increase compared to 34,928 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy [1] - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated, with a total of about 21,607 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, up 44.7% from 14,935 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [1] - The increase in special bond issuance is seen as a significant policy support measure, aimed at stabilizing growth, promoting investment, and improving people's livelihoods [1] Group 2 - The overall issuance of local bonds in the first half of the year reached a historical high, with expectations for a noticeable acceleration in the issuance of new local bonds in the second half [2] - It is anticipated that the issuance of new special bonds will further accelerate in the third quarter, with the scale expected to expand and the pace of issuance to quicken [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize a more proactive fiscal policy to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, thereby consolidating the fundamentals of economic development and social stability [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 24, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,556 yuan/ton, down 1.10%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5,500 yuan/ton. The SF2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%, and the Ningxia silicon - iron spot was reported at 5,240 yuan/ton. [2] - The Fed's Waller said that considering the recent mild inflation data, a rate cut in July should be considered. [2] - Fundamentally, manufacturers' production cuts have led to the operating rate reaching a low level in the same period, but the overall inventory is still high. The import manganese ore port inventory at the raw material end decreased by 186,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal output has peaked and declined. The raw - material coal has stopped falling and stabilized, and the pessimistic sentiment has improved. [2] - In terms of profit, the Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 120 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 350 yuan/ton for silicon - iron; the Ningxia spot profit is - 300 yuan/ton for manganese - silicon and - 310 yuan/ton for silicon - iron. [2] - In the market, steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender prices continue to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价 was 5,556 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan; SF主力合约收盘价 was 5,288 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量 was 597,205 hands, up 9,808 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 425,758 hands, down 6,891 hands. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 25,899 hands, up 7,983 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 44,943 hands, up 4,411 hands. [2] - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 52 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was - 36 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. [2] - The SM warehouse receipts were 93,769, down 1,231; the SF warehouse receipts were 0. [2] Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The SM index average was 5,465 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 48 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The SM主力合约基差 was - 56 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block at Tianjin Port was 31 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.215 million tons, down 186,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 36.39%, up 1.09%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate was 32.69%, up 1.34%. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 176,610 tons, up 3,220 tons; the silicon - iron supply was 97,900 tons, up 2,800 tons. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 195,900 tons, up 9,300 tons; the silicon - iron manufacturer inventory was 69,900 tons, up 2,200 tons. [2] - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; the national steel mill inventory days of silicon - iron was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days. [2] Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 123,717 tons, up 1,564 tons; the demand for silicon - iron from the five major steel types was 19,964.4 tons, up 356.6 tons. [2] - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, up 0.45%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.81%, up 0.25%. [2] - The crude - steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons. [2] Other Market News - Another Fed governor after Waller last Friday signaled a dovish stance. Bowman supported an interest - rate cut as early as July due to potential rising risks in the labor market. [2] - Recently, special bonds are being used for government investment funds for the first time, and the arrangement of using the new special debt quota for land acquisition, purchasing existing commercial housing, and paying off local government arrears to enterprises is gradually being implemented. It is expected that the issuance of new local government special bonds will still accelerate in the second half of the year. [2] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than the expected 50.5. ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is capable of dealing with "exceptionally severe" economic and political uncertainties. [2] - On June 23, the coke market price was weak, and the fourth - round price cut was implemented. The mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the coke purchase price by 50 yuan/ton for wet - quenched coke and 55 yuan/ton for dry - quenched coke. [2] - On June 24, the silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,288 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative, the settlement electricity price in Ningxia is lowered, the cost support is weakened, and the overall expectation of steel demand is still weak. [2]