新华社内罗毕1月24日电（记者由荟圆）肯尼亚主流媒体《星报》23日刊发评论员文章说，中国的贸易 顺差是全球市场需求驱动的结果，并且正在为世界各国经济带来实实在在的利益。文章摘要如下： 没有任何国家可以强迫他人购买自己的商品。国际贸易由比较优势、消费者选择和价格竞争力塑造，而 非单方面意图。中国出口规模增长，反映出全球消费者和企业对中国产品的真实需求，本质上是他们对 中国制造的"信任投票"。 不仅发展中国家受益，西方发达经济体也从中国出口中获益。跨国企业深度嵌入中国制造体系，把中国 作为面向全球市场的生产基地。在华外资企业出口约占中国出口总额的近三分之一。另外，中国出口还 为全球消费者提供性价比更高的产品。 当前，中国正积极调整经济结构，提升内需在经济发展中的地位。中国的人口规模和不断壮大的中等收 入群体带来的消费潜力，是全球最重要的增长机遇。 责编：秦雅楠、王珊宁 发展中国家和新兴经济体得益于中国出口的扩大。一方面，中国制造带来了各国加快基础设施建设和能 源转型急需的产品；另一方面，中国出口中相当一部分为中间产品，给非洲等地区提供了投入本地生产 的必需品。中国出口的中间产品有助于非洲企业降本增效、提升竞争力， ...

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement two interest rate cuts in 2026, each by 10 basis points, with room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates [3][4] - The average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is currently 6.3%, indicating potential for a reduction [3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase from 11% of GDP in 2025 to 12.2% in 2026, with overall spending expected to increase in key areas [3][4] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that the total scale of fiscal deficits, debt, and expenditures will be maintained at necessary levels to ensure spending does not decrease [4] Economic Growth - China's exports are anticipated to remain strong in 2026, driven by global economic growth, expansion into emerging markets, and China's competitive product strength [5] - In 2025, China's total foreign trade reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader [4][5] Investment Outlook - Investment performance in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025, with significant projects in technology, AI, and power grids likely to accelerate [5] Consumer Trends - Consumption is expected to show structural differentiation, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption in 2026 [6]

在出口产品结构不断优化升级以及部分高端产品有绝对比较优势的背景下，价格对于出口的影响逐步减弱。 2025年末人民币对美元加速升值，市场力量和政策调节共同推动在岸和离岸即期汇价先后破7。展望来看，2025年不仅是过去3年贬值周期的结束，还可能 开启新一轮升值周期，我们预计2026年在美元指数保持结构性弱势的情况下，人民币汇率有望延续升值态势，到2026年底人民币对美元或升向6.7~6.8。 在人民币升值预期下，市场出现了部分对于人民币升值会不会影响出口的担忧。从理论上讲，人民币升值会使得出口货物价格升高，进而使得出口产品竞 争优势减弱，但从2018年以来，我国出口对汇率变化的敏感度明显下滑，在出口产品结构不断优化升级以及部分高端产品有绝对比较优势的背景下，价格 对于我国出口的影响逐步减弱，且随着人民币国际化不断推进，国际贸易结算中人民币结算比重也逐步上升，未来汇率波动对我国出口的扰动将进一步减 弱。 汇率并非出口趋势性变化的主要因素 自2015年"8·11汇改"以来，人民币汇率弹性显著提升，双向波动特征更加明显，因此我们主要考察"8·11"汇改以来汇率变动对于出口的影响。 "8·11汇改"以来，人民币对美元即期 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to raise concerns about its impact on China's exports in 2026, as higher prices could weaken competitive advantages[1] - Since 2018, the sensitivity of China's exports to exchange rate changes has decreased, with "technical barriers" becoming the main competitive strength over "price advantages" due to product upgrades[1] - The proportion of RMB settlements in international trade is gradually increasing, which is expected to further reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on exports[1] Group 2: Historical Review - Historical data shows that during the RMB appreciation cycles from December 2016 to April 2018 and from May 2020 to March 2022, export growth remained stable, recovering from -6.3% to over 10% and from -3.5% to 13.4%, respectively[2] - Export recovery often precedes RMB appreciation by about one quarter, indicating that rising exports may contribute to RMB appreciation rather than the other way around[2] Group 3: Factors Reducing Impact of RMB Appreciation - The actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has decreased to approximately 88.6% as of November 2025, down 16.7% from its peak in March 2022, enhancing the price competitiveness of exports[2] - The RMB's purchasing power in international markets has increased due to appreciation, benefiting imports and reducing reliance on depreciation for export competitiveness[2] - The share of labor-intensive exports is declining, while the proportion of intermediate and capital goods exports is increasing, reflecting a shift towards more technology-intensive products[2] Group 4: Trade Settlement Trends - In 2024, RMB cross-border payments for goods trade reached approximately 12.4 trillion yuan, a 15.9% increase year-on-year, with RMB settlements accounting for 27.2% of total cross-border payments, up 2.4 percentage points from 2023[2] - The RMB settlement ratio is significantly increasing in trade with emerging markets, particularly in regions like ASEAN and Africa, where growth rates of 21.8% and 35.9% were recorded, respectively[2] Group 5: Risk Considerations - There are uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies, which could negatively impact exports if additional tariffs are imposed[2] - A potential downturn in the U.S. economy could adversely affect global demand, posing risks to China's export performance[2]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's exports are projected to reach 26.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, driven by quality improvements and the global popularity of "Chinese good products" [1] Group 1: Export Growth - Exports of lithium batteries and wind turbine generators are expected to grow by 26.2% and 48.7% respectively [3] - Exports of electric motorcycles and bicycles increased by 18.1%, while electric locomotives saw a growth of 27.1% [3] - Exports of industrial gas purification equipment rose by 17.3%, and electric forklifts experienced a growth of 5.2% [3] Group 2: Market Expansion - Exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 11.2%, contributing 5.4 percentage points to overall export growth [5] - ASEAN has been China's largest export market for three consecutive years [5] - Export growth rates to emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa are all faster than the overall growth rate [5] - China has become a "key link" in the global industrial and supply chains [5]

中信建投研报指出，去年令市场颇为意外的是中国出口表现，纵使美对华加征关税，新增关税一度超过 30%，但实际出口表现却打破悲观预期。全年出口同比增速高达5.5%，仅略低于2024年的5.8%。12月出 口规模更是创下单月历史新高，环比增速创2016年以来同期新高。极强的出口韧性背后是中国制造业强 大优势。支撑中国出口韧性的核心驱动力并不会改变，我们预计2026年出口有望延续强势，同比增速为 5%，原因有二：其一，2026年外贸环境明显改善，关税落定，且欧美开启新一轮财政扩张红利，全球 需求或有边际抬升。其二，随着中国与非美国家合作深化，中国产品在非美地区进口份额中延续上升趋 势，2026年这一特征有望继续延续。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Foreign Exchange (FX) and Economic Strategy in China - **Company**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Forecast Revision**: The forecast for the USDCNY exchange rate has been revised upward, expecting it to reach 6.85 by Q1 2026 and finish at 7.0 by the end of 2026, compared to previous estimates of 7.05 for both periods [8][11] - **Export Strength**: Robust export momentum is anticipated to continue through 2026-27, with expected growth rates of 5-6% in export volume, supported by a strong external balance and improved competitiveness [12][9] - **Deflationary Pressures**: Lingering domestic deflation is a significant constraint on the RMB's appreciation potential, limiting the economy's ability to sustain a stronger currency [17][18] - **Dollar Dynamics**: The dollar is expected to weaken in the first half of 2026 due to anticipated Fed rate cuts, followed by a rebound in the second half as US economic growth accelerates [10][41] - **Policy Guidance**: The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has maintained a consistent FX policy aimed at managing volatility and preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations, indicating a preference for stability around an equilibrium level [19][11] Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Risks**: Potential risks to the RMB outlook include renewed geopolitical tensions and capital outflows, which could negatively impact the currency [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The USD/CNH pair is currently oversold, and a break below 6.97 could lead to further downside towards approximately 6.80 [30][29] - **Limited Spillover Effects**: The recent strength of the CNH has had limited positive implications for other Asian currencies, with only the Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) showing a potential benefit due to its stronger relationship with the CNY [36][37] - **Exporters' FX Conversion**: Seasonal increases in exporters' FX conversion are expected, particularly in December, but may slow in January due to historical trends [24][26] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the RMB's outlook, export dynamics, and the broader economic context affecting currency movements.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Goldman Sachs is optimistic about China's export prospects, forecasting a real export growth rate of approximately 8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026, with nominal export growth remaining robust at 5.6% in 2026 compared to 5.5% in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The resilience of China's exports is attributed to three main factors: rapid expansion of exports to emerging market economies driven by strong competitiveness of Chinese products and demand generated by Chinese foreign investments [2] - China holds a dominant position in rare earth and other critical mineral sectors, contributing to export strength [3] - There is potential for growth in high-tech exports, supported by policy initiatives and capital expenditure cycles related to the global artificial intelligence industry [3] Group 3 - In terms of consumption, the continuation of the "old-for-new" subsidy plan for consumer goods in 2026 is expected to support service consumption growth, which is anticipated to outpace goods consumption growth [3] - Investment growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 due to local government financing restrictions and "anti-involution" policies targeting overcapacity in certain industries [3] - However, with a policy emphasis on stabilizing investment in 2026, Goldman Sachs projects a rebound in fixed capital formation growth from 1.5% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026 [3]

Export Performance in 2025 - In 2025, China's exports are expected to grow by 5.0% (in USD), demonstrating strong resilience despite significant tariffs imposed by the US[2] - The decline in exports to the US is projected to narrow, with a drop of 18.9% in the first 11 months of 2025, impacting overall export growth by approximately 2.8 percentage points[11] - Exports to non-US markets contributed about 6.0 percentage points to overall export growth, offsetting the decline in US exports[11] Outlook for 2026 - For 2026, China's export growth is anticipated to slow to around 4%, still outperforming the global average of approximately 0.5%[14] - China's share of global exports is expected to rise to 15.5% in 2026, up from 15.0% in 2025 and 14.6% in 2024[22] - The export structure is shifting from low-end consumer goods to mid-to-high-end intermediate and capital goods due to global supply chain restructuring[2] Key Drivers of Export Resilience - Demand from emerging markets such as Africa, ASEAN, and Latin America is expected to drive the demand for industrial and intermediate goods, supporting Chinese exports[2] - China's competitive advantage in key segments of the supply chain continues to attract imports of essential intermediate and capital goods from countries like ASEAN[2] - Expansion in global AI computing power investments is likely to boost exports of Chinese electrical equipment and data center products[2] Risks and Policy Recommendations - Potential risks include the escalation of the US-China tariff war and increasing trade barriers from other economies[5] - Policy recommendations suggest enhancing domestic reforms and technological upgrades to strengthen export competitiveness[4] - Expanding high-level international openness is advised to provide stable support for enterprises' export and globalization efforts[4]

Group 1: Economic Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference indicates a moderate approach to policy, focusing on stability rather than strong stimulus, with no significant adjustments expected for 2025 policies [1] - The policy tone aims for gradual progress to stabilize growth and alleviate deflationary pressures, without strong measures for re-inflation or breaking the deflation cycle [1] - The nominal GDP growth forecast for 2026 is conservatively maintained at just over 4%, which is more cautious than market consensus [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit, including both explicit and implicit components, is set to be similar to 2025 levels, but with a noticeable front-loading towards infrastructure investments [2] - Key areas for fiscal spending include urban renewal, underground infrastructure, green transition projects, and public expenditures related to AI computing centers [2] - There is potential for an additional fiscal space equivalent to 0.5% of GDP if economic conditions worsen in the first half of the year [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The actual space for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is limited, with a focus on structural and quasi-fiscal tools [2] - Any interest rate cuts in the coming year are expected to be modest, around 10 to 20 basis points, which is relatively small compared to the Federal Reserve's potential cuts [2] Group 4: Real Estate Policy - Further support for the real estate sector, such as mortgage rate subsidies, is likely to be detailed after the national two sessions, with implementation expected in the second quarter of 2026 [2] - A broad and sustained approach to mortgage rate subsidies could stabilize expectations in major cities, potentially aligning mortgage rates closer to local rental yields [2] Group 5: Consumer Policy - The continuation of the national subsidy for trade-ins is expected, but there is uncertainty about the introduction of new consumer support measures like service industry subsidies or consumption vouchers [3] - Direct subsidies for mortgage rates and service industry consumption may be necessary to stimulate consumer spending, with implementation likely pushed to the second half of next year [3] Group 6: Export Outlook - Despite concerns about export sustainability, the outlook remains positive, with China's share of global exports currently at 15% and expected to rise to 16-17% over the next five years [3] - The competitive landscape for Chinese industries is expected to improve, with significant advantages in emerging sectors such as batteries, new energy vehicles, and robotics [5] Group 7: Structural Changes in Global Trade - The trend of de-China-ization is not expected to reduce China's market share, as trade chains are lengthening rather than replacing Chinese enterprises [4] - China's competitive edge in high-value segments and its talent pool, with 11 million engineering graduates annually, positions it favorably in key industries [5] Group 8: Consumer Transition - A shift towards consumer-driven growth is anticipated, with a focus on enhancing social security and welfare, particularly for farmers and migrant workers, to boost consumption capacity [6] - Support for durable goods and broader service sector consumption is essential for economic recovery, alongside measures to stabilize the real estate market [6]