中信证券研报称，推动产业链价格回升是实现光伏行业"反内卷"的有效措施和重要的第一步，随着行业 回归规范化有序竞争，以及潜在供给侧改革政策逐步完善和落地，光伏基本面底有望得以夯实，落后产 能出清长效机制逐步规范和形成。 7月以来在"反内卷"政策催化下，光伏行业表现反复活跃，受到市场资金的积极关注。交易所、Wind数 据显示，截至2025/7/10规模居同类之首的光伏ETF（515790）7月以来累计获14.69亿元资金加仓，日均 成交额达8.55亿元，其中7月10日单日 "吸金"便达3.15亿元 。 在资金流入和市场情绪的助推下，交易所数据显示，截至2025/7/10，光伏ETF（515790）最新规模和份 额分别增长至169.61亿份和123.67亿元，月内增幅达14.35%和23.87%，其中最新份额创下成立以来历史 新高，具有流动性较优、规模较大的优势。 消息面上，近期光伏产业链多环节价格正在显现企稳回暖的趋势。上海有色网7月9日发布的报告显示， 受多晶硅报价上涨预期带动，下游硅片价格发生波动，市场均价小幅上涨。多家硅料企业开始调整产品 报价，展现出强烈的挺价决心。光伏产业链价格回升趋势有望继续向下游传导 ...

业内人士分析，此次硅片涨价主因是上游硅料价格的上涨传导。根据中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会数据，本周多晶硅N型复投料和颗粒硅成交均价环比分 别上涨6.92%和6.27%，且多晶硅报价整体上调幅度更大，达25%～35%。硅业分会指出，硅料企业此前超过一年亏损运营，为避免低成本销售，选择一次性 提价至综合成本线以上清库存。 尽管上游成本上行，此次硅片涨价能否顺利传导至下游电池环节，仍充满不确定性。市场普遍担忧，国内光伏终端需求增速放缓，叠加7月电池片库存增 加、价格承压的背景，下游电池企业接受提价的能力有限。InfoLink此前预测电池片价格仍将下探，供需失衡和上下游博弈态势明显。 这一调价行动得到了一线及二三线硅片厂商的证实。行业咨询机构InfoLink在当天稍晚发布的价格信息中并未反映此次变动，其数据显示硅片均价仍呈下跌 趋势。 【环球网财经综合报道】光伏产业链近期风波再起。7月9日，多家硅片厂商突然宣布上调硅片报价，不同尺寸产品价格涨幅达8%至11.7%，引发市场关注。 183N硅片价格从0.9元/片涨至1元/片，210RN硅片从1.03元/片涨至1.15元/片，210N硅片从1.25元/片涨至1.35元/片 ...

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry chain is facing price instability, with terminal demand needing to be boosted [1] Group 1: Silicon Procurement and Inventory - In the polysilicon segment, procurement is slowing down due to poor visibility of downstream orders in July, leading to a continued low willingness to stock up for the next month [1] - As of this week, silicon wafer inventory remains above 2 billion pieces, indicating a vacuum in terminal demand, making it difficult to prevent inventory levels from rising despite potential production cuts from leading specialized manufacturers next month [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Pressure - The demand for battery cells is also not optimistic, leading to cautious procurement of silicon wafers, with expectations of a loose supply-demand balance for silicon wafers in July [1] - The component segment is expected to see a continued decline in order demand, with significant reductions in orders from leading manufacturers, while second and third-tier manufacturers face poor order intake and generally low operating rates [1]

交易情况 01 周价格表 | | | | | 更新日期:2025/6/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型复投料(RMB) | 35.000 | 33.000 | 34.500 | -4.17% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 34.000 | 32.000 | 32.000 | -4.48% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 32.500 | 31.000 | 31.500 | -3.08% | | 非中国区多智娃(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 17.500 | -2.78% | | 硅片 (Per pc) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130μm (RMB) | 0.880 | 0.850 | 0.880 | -2.22% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130μm (RMB) | 1.250 | 1.230 | 1.230 | -1.60% | | N型210R单晶硅片-210*182mm/130µm ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing significant price declines in 2024, leading to short-term pressure on company performance, with a projected revenue drop of 55.2% year-on-year to 15.1 billion yuan and a net loss of 4.75 billion yuan compared to a profit of 2.51 billion yuan in the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - The company has demonstrated strong resilience operationally, achieving a continuous reduction in losses quarter-on-quarter since Q2 2024 [1] - The company's polysilicon sales increased by 24.7% year-on-year to 282,000 tons, with granular silicon production rising by 32.2% [1] - Granular silicon market share increased from 12.1% at the beginning of 2024 to 25.8% by February 2025, with over 40% application ratio among top clients, indicating strong product competitiveness [1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability - The cash cost of granular silicon has significantly decreased, averaging 33.52 yuan/kg in 2024 and dropping to 27.14 yuan/kg by early 2025, showcasing a notable industry-leading advantage [1] - The proportion of high-quality products has risen to over 95%, effectively supporting the demand for N-type products [1] Group 3: New Business Developments - The company has made significant breakthroughs in perovskite research, achieving a conversion efficiency of 26.36% for 1m×2m stacked components, which is globally leading [1] - The production cost of perovskite cells is 50% lower than that of crystalline silicon cells, and the product has received certification from TÜV Rheinland [1] Group 4: Financial Health - The company completed a lightning placement and issued convertible bonds at the end of 2024, raising over 700 million USD for R&D and to navigate through the industry cycle [2] - The net debt ratio remains at a healthy level of 24.7% [2] Group 5: Future Profit Projections - The company forecasts net profits of -496 million yuan, 839 million yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 89.6%, 269.0%, and 158.8% respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.02, 0.03, and 0.08 yuan [2]

2025 年 6 月 19 日 星期四 市场走势 【今日要点】 【行业评论】【山证电新】20250618 光伏产业链价格跟踪 研究早观点 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,388.81 | 0.04 | | 深证成指 | | 10,175.59 | 0.24 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,874.97 | 0.12 | | 中小板指 | | 6,393.77 | 0.63 | | 创业板指 | | 2,054.73 | 0.23 | | 科创 50 | | 968.18 | 0.53 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 研究早观点 电池片 价格结构性下降： 182-183.75mm N 型电池片均价为 0.240 元/W（转换效率 25.0%+），较上周 下降 2.0%；182*210mm ...

具体来看，随着新能源上网电价市场化，终端电站需求明显减弱，组件—电池—硅片整个产业链条市场 氛围转变明显，市场由开始的供不应求到按需小批量低价采买为主。另一方面，虽然硅片价格一路下 跌，但各厂商为保证市场占有率，开工率下调较少。 值得一提的是，由于本周硅料价格开始新一轮下探，市场整体看跌情绪较为浓厚，故而硅片价格也出现 小幅下行。数据显示，本周行业整体开工率小幅下滑至52%左右，其中两家一线企业开工率在50%和 54%，一体化企业开工率在52%—80%之间，其余企业开工在54%—80%之间。 展望后市，硅业分会认为，目前各硅片企业大多数处于现金流亏损局面，部分硅片企业有减产计划。因 此，在供应减少和成本支撑下，硅片价格再度大幅下跌概率较低。 2025SNEC光伏展正如火如荼的举行，但光伏产业链价格仍未止跌。 中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的数据显示，本周，多晶硅有一定的成交量，但价格再度出现下 滑。其中，N型复投料成交均价3.67万元/吨，环比下降2.13%；N型颗粒硅成交均价为3.45万元/吨，环 比持平；P型多晶硅成交均价为3.07万元/吨，环比下降1.92%。 硅业分会指出，造成本周价格下跌的主要原因 ...

中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的数据显示，本周，硅料订单成交数量有限，价格暂时维持稳定。 其中，N型复投料成交均价为3.75万元/吨，N型颗粒硅成交均价为3.45万元/吨，P型多晶硅成交均价为 3.13万元/吨，环比均持平。 由于端午休假影响，本周大多数订单还未落地，目前仅3—4家企业有新签订单。根据企业反馈，近期已 签订订单价格暂时保持稳定，数量较少。下游后续仍有一定的硅料采购需求，因此价格还要根据新一轮 签单情况决定，预期下降空间已极为有限。 硅业分会指出，本月终端抢装已正式结束，下游拉晶厂采购硅料压价力度仍然较强，企业挺价难度加 剧，若价格进一步下跌，预计会有更多企业加速实施停产检修策略，积极应对极端市场行情。目前，多 晶硅在产企业数量为11家，基本全部处于降负荷运作状态。 InfoLink的统计显示，硅片端排产环比出现小幅下调，但仍与电池环节基本匹配。在硅片企业普遍处于 亏现金成本的情况下，硅片价格下行压力难以进一步传导。需特别留意的是，随着组件端210N规格产 品需求转弱，电池厂承压明显，210N电池价格持续松动。若此趋势延续，或将将进一步压缩对应规格 硅片的价格空间。 电池片环节，183N、21 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry chain prices weakened overall in May, with a potential continuation of the downward trend into June due to seasonal demand weakness, loosening cost support, and macroeconomic pressures [1] Demand Factors - Domestic steel demand is weak as the industry enters a traditional construction off-season, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance despite high iron water production and acceptable steel mill profits [1] - Steel exports have declined, contributing to the overall weak demand [1] Cost Factors - Iron ore prices have decreased, and coal and coke prices continue to fall, resulting in reduced cost support for steel production [1] - The cost decline is more pronounced in raw materials compared to finished steel products, with coke prices showing a year-on-year decline but only a slight month-on-month decrease [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on Chinese goods has created a negative impact, although recent talks have led to some consensus without sufficient positive support for the market [1] Production and Profitability - The average profit margin in the steel industry chain has improved year-on-year, although some segments have seen a month-on-month decline [1] - The operating rates for raw material enterprises have generally increased, while iron ore production has significantly decreased year-on-year due to capacity constraints [1] Outlook for June - Steel industry chain prices are expected to continue declining in June, influenced by macroeconomic weakening, potential further declines in raw material prices, and a lack of upward drivers in the market [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with risks from seasonal demand and declining exports, leading to increased uncertainty [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the price of polysilicon has stabilized after a period of increase driven by a "rush to install" in the photovoltaic industry [1] - Despite the recent price increases across the photovoltaic supply chain, the overall supply-demand mismatch in the solar industry has not significantly improved, leading to insufficient momentum for continued price rises [1] - Following the "rush to install," polysilicon prices have seen a decline but are now showing signs of stabilization, with expectations that prices will remain within the current range for some time [1]