新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-24 盘面振幅放大，需关注交易风险 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-23，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨后回落，主力合约2509开于9810元/吨，最后收于9525元/吨，较前一日结算 变化（55）元/吨，变化（0.58）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓334776手，2025-07-23仓单总数为50106手，较 前一日变化53手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9900-10100（300）元/吨；421#硅在10100-10400 （300）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格9400-9600（400）元/吨，99硅价格在9400-9500（400）元/吨，现货价格继续上调。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11600-12500（0）元/吨。据SMM了解，今日国内山东淄博地区前期事故 单体企业80万吨单体产能全部进入停车，此次停车时长不定，国内供应减量加剧。 策略 焦煤价格继续上涨，反内卷政策等仍有一定扰动，导致期货情绪仍偏强，短期盘面或仍偏强运行。后续需关注盘 面上涨后西南开工变化及西北复产情况，若反弹较多，可择机卖出套保。 ...

周末多晶硅N型复投料价格36元/千克，N型多晶硅价格指数35.6元/千克，颗粒硅报价34元/千克，周末 多晶硅价格大稳小动，上周多晶硅企业给予成本统一上调报价，目前还未到市场签单期价格以持稳观望 为主。据了解，今日头部多晶硅厂对部分订单致密/复投料报价上调至37元/千克，上涨原因主要是近期 反内卷政策导向以及行业自律。（上海有色网） ...

交易情况 01 周价格表 | | | | | 更新日期:2025/6/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型复投料(RMB) | 35.000 | 33.000 | 34.500 | -4.17% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 34.000 | 32.000 | 32.000 | -4.48% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 32.500 | 31.000 | 31.500 | -3.08% | | 非中国区多智娃(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 17.500 | -2.78% | | 硅片 (Per pc) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130μm (RMB) | 0.880 | 0.850 | 0.880 | -2.22% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130μm (RMB) | 1.250 | 1.230 | 1.230 | -1.60% | | N型210R单晶硅片-210*182mm/130µm ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting price fluctuations across various segments such as polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules, indicating a cautious market outlook with potential for further price declines [5][9][12][16]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction price for N-type re-investment material is 37.0 RMB/KG, while N-type dense material and N-type granular silicon are priced at 34.5 RMB/KG and 33.5 RMB/KG respectively [5][9]. - Overall polysilicon inventory is above 370,000 tons, with a slowing purchasing speed from downstream, suggesting a continued upward trend in inventory levels [7]. - Major manufacturers are planning production cuts, and there is a strong consensus among other manufacturers to adjust operating rates in response to declining prices [8][9]. Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type M10 wafers, N-type G12 wafers, and N-type G12R wafers are 0.93 RMB/piece, 1.27 RMB/piece, and 1.07 RMB/piece respectively [9][12]. - Inventory levels for wafers remain stable at around 20 GW, with no expected increase in the short term [11]. - Demand for 210RN wafers has improved, leading to a slight price rebound, although overall demand remains weak [12][14]. Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for M10 single crystal TOPCon cells, G12 single crystal TOPCon cells, and G12R single crystal TOPCon cells are 0.255 RMB/W, 0.273 RMB/W, and 0.260 RMB/W respectively [13][16]. - Inventory levels for specialized cell manufacturers are around one week, indicating a relatively light inventory pressure across the supply chain [15]. - The demand for 210RN cells has provided some support, leading to a slight price increase despite overall market weakness [16]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for 182mm double-sided double-glass TOPCon modules and 210mm double-sided double-glass HJT modules are 0.67 RMB/W and 0.77 RMB/W respectively [16]. - There is a noticeable decline in order visibility for modules in June, with many manufacturers reducing operating rates and maintaining low inventory levels [17][18]. - The European market has seen stable module prices in May, but future prices may be affected by the decline in imported products [18].

Market Overview - A-shares opened higher but retreated, with the photovoltaic sector experiencing significant gains and silicon material stocks surging across the board [1][4] - The U.S. and China unexpectedly reduced tariffs, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks overnight [1] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector saw a collective rise, with notable stocks such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (国航远洋) increasing over 10% and Ningbo Shipping (宁波海运) hitting the daily limit [2][3] - The main contract for container shipping on the European route surged over 10% [2] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector experienced a substantial rally, with the silicon material index rising nearly 3.8% [4][5] - Key stocks in the sector, such as Tongwei Co. (通威股份) and Oriental Sunrise (东方日升), reached their daily limit, with significant trading volumes reported [6][7] - The silicon material prices are stabilizing, with recent reports indicating that the N-type polysilicon price index is at 37.05 yuan per kilogram [8] Banking Sector - The banking sector continued its strong performance, with several banks, including Shanghai Bank and Jiangsu Bank, reaching new highs [9][10] - Chongqing Bank and CITIC Bank also achieved new annual highs, reflecting positive market sentiment [9]