证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 03 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 猪价持续下行，周期反转可期 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20260223-20260227） 证券分析师 投资要点： 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 周翔 SAC：S1350525070003 zhouxiang@huayuanstock.com 生猪：猪价持续走弱，中央一号文件强调产能综合调控 SW 生猪养殖板块涨 3.4%，猪价持续下行，产能去化预期转强。周末（2026/3 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Lihua Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Lihua Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Livestock and Poultry Farming Key Points Industry and Company Performance - **2026 Pig Production**: The company expects a 5% reduction in pig output due to policy adjustments, with a shift from piglet sales to fattened pig sales. The original target of 3 million pigs will be delayed [2][3] - **Cost Management**: By the end of 2025, pig farming costs reached 6 CNY/kg, with a further decrease to below 6 CNY/kg in January 2026, driven by improved production performance and capacity utilization [2][5] - **Broiler Chicken Production**: The growth rate for broiler chickens will be reduced to 6%-8% in 2026, down from double-digit growth, to better align supply and demand [2][7] Financial Performance - **Profitability**: In 2025, the pig segment became the main profit source, with 211,000 fattened pigs sold and a significant drop in sales price by approximately 20% year-on-year. Despite this, effective cost control allowed the company to maintain profitability [4][11] - **Slaughtering Operations**: The slaughtering volume is expected to reach 90 million chickens in 2026, with continuous improvement in operational results. Loss per chicken has decreased from 1 CNY to about 0.3 CNY in 2025 [2][7] Risk Management - **Hedging Plans**: The company has set a hedging plan with a maximum margin and premium of 300 million CNY, and a maximum contract value of 3 billion CNY on any trading day, primarily for risk hedging [2][5][6] Market Dynamics - **Chicken Pricing**: In 2025, the average price of broiler chickens fell by about 12%, leading to overall industry losses, although the company managed to remain slightly profitable [4][10] - **Future Outlook**: The company remains optimistic about long-term growth despite current challenges, citing that the "production limit" policy may not be sustainable in the long run [3][10] Capital Expenditure - **Investment Plans**: The company plans to maintain stable capital expenditures, focusing on the expansion of chicken and pig farming operations, including the construction of slaughterhouses and feed mills [14][15] Cost Structure - **Cost Breakdown**: The cost of broiler chicken production is approximately 5.5-5.6 CNY, with feed costs accounting for over 70% of total costs. The company anticipates a moderate increase in feed prices in 2026 [12][16] Production Capacity - **Production Structure**: In 2025, the company’s pig output structure was primarily based on self-built farms and partnerships with local farmers, with a focus on maintaining a sustainable self-breeding system [15] Conclusion - The company is navigating a challenging environment with strategic adjustments in production targets and cost management while maintaining a focus on long-term growth and profitability in the livestock sector [2][3][10]

玻璃冷修与价格展望 20260302 摘要 浮法玻璃行业受房地产下行拖累，需求端面临挑战，2025 年竣工和新 开工同比分别下降 18%和 20%，导致整体需求下降约 10%。非地产需 求虽有提升，但难以完全对冲地产下滑的影响。 供给端受政策约束，严禁新增产能，并推进"煤改气"，原料与能源结 构升级进一步限制供给。湖北省要求在 2026 年 8 月底前完成石油焦改 天然气，涉及 8 家企业约 9,700 吨/日产能，改造需冷修 5-6 个月，或 面临停产风险。 2026 年浮法玻璃国内需求预计继续下降 6%-7%。一季度价格可能继续 筑底，二季度供需或弱平衡，价格存在修复机会，局部有望反弹至 1,100 元/吨以上。沙河玻璃价格回升至 1,100-1,200 元/吨区间有望进 入盈利区间。 光伏玻璃行业面临供给过剩，在产日熔量约 8.8 万吨，有效产能接近 10 万吨。价格承压，目前约 10.0-10.5 元/平方米。2025 年两次抢装期后 库存快速增加，价格回落，企业盈利受挤压。 光伏玻璃供给侧已出现收缩，部分企业停产减产。2026 年国内光伏需 求可能持平或小幅下降，海外需求受政策和地缘政治影响，总体判 ...

保留,我们整体来说我们2025年也是我们上市公司重整完了以后的第一个完整年度,整个全年我们营收大概是85到89个亿这个区间吧,跟24年基本持平。 那我们利润呢我们规模的净利润大概是一个亿左右吧这个我们也发了这个业绩的预告在会上就跟大家简单的回顾一下那么扣费的这个情况是亏4到4.5个亿里面主要的一个是集体的坏账跟这个资产减值的这个大概是两亿左右那么我们这个整个的这个经营呢我们几个事业部 因为我们整个澳农生物的业务的结构我们是我们原有的业务基本上完整保留的一个重整的案例我们整个的业务板块三大业务板块饲料还有我们养猪还有屠宰跟食品基本上还是保留的比较好的原来的整个的建制只是说把我们一些 原来相对低产低效的一些单位和一些这个区域我们在重整的过程中在这一块的这个资产和业务上做了一些剥离所以我们25年整个的业务相对营收相对24年基本上是一个恢复也是一个这个持平的一个状态这个也跟我们这个有关系因为毕竟24年虽然有些经营单位他的经营的这个绩效不是很好但是他的 营收啊包括他的这个业务的体量还在这个表内25年我们就把这块拨出去了那实际上从我们留下来的单位的来看我们整个的这个经营的情况是增长的但是因为有24年的一个基数的影响我们整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notification to regulate the electronic cigarette industry, aiming to balance supply and demand while preventing overcapacity and ensuring compliance with industry policies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Regulation - Companies are prohibited from investing in new projects, and any relocation or restoration of projects must not increase production capacity. Technical renovations should generally not increase capacity unless specific conditions are met [2][3]. - Enterprises must demonstrate that any new capacity aligns with market demand and complies with safety, health, and environmental standards [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Control - The notification emphasizes the need for capacity management based on market demand, with strict adherence to approved production capacities [3][4]. - Companies must apply for re-evaluation of their production capacity if adjustments are needed, and any outsourcing must remain within the approved capacity limits [3][4]. Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Balance - The notification aims to mitigate chaotic market competition by regulating annual production scales within approved capacities [4][5]. - Increased regulatory scrutiny will be applied to high-risk market participants, focusing on compliance with national standards and regulations [4][5]. Group 4: Overcapacity Risk Mitigation - A legal and market-oriented approach will be taken to phase out excess capacity, particularly for companies failing to meet industry standards [5][6]. - Companies with consistently low capacity utilization or those involved in illegal activities will be subject to stricter oversight and potential capacity reduction [5][6]. Group 5: Compliance Improvement - The notification supports electronic cigarette companies in enhancing their operational capabilities and compliance with regulations [6][7]. - Companies are urged to avoid illegal sales practices and ensure that products meet national standards, with a focus on protecting minors from access to electronic cigarettes [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notification to regulate the electronic cigarette industry, emphasizing the need to balance supply and demand while preventing overcapacity and ensuring compliance with industry policies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Behavior Regulation - Enterprises are prohibited from investing in new projects, and any relocation or restoration of projects must not increase production capacity [2][3]. - Technical renovations at existing sites should not lead to increased capacity unless they meet specific criteria, including high capacity utilization and genuine market demand [2][3]. - Companies must not increase production lines or capacities through unauthorized means and must comply with antitrust laws during capacity restructuring [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Control - The management of electronic cigarette production capacity will be based on market demand, with a focus on fair and orderly implementation of capacity management [3][4]. - Companies must apply for re-evaluation of their production capacity if adjustments are needed, and must operate within their approved capacity limits [3][4]. - Mergers and consolidations of production points are encouraged to improve efficiency, provided they comply with industry policies [3][4]. Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Balance - The notification aims to mitigate chaotic market competition by regulating annual production scales within approved capacity limits [4][5]. - Increased regulatory scrutiny will be applied to high-risk market participants, with strict penalties for violations such as false declarations and non-compliance with quality standards [4][5]. - Companies are required to ensure compliance with destination country regulations for exported products [4][5]. Group 4: Overcapacity Risk Mitigation - A legal and market-oriented approach will be adopted to phase out excess capacity, targeting companies that do not meet industry standards [5][6]. - Companies with consistently low capacity utilization or those involved in illegal activities will be closely monitored and may face capacity reductions [5][6]. - A comprehensive standard system for electronic cigarettes will be established to enhance quality and safety [5][6]. Group 5: Compliance Improvement - Support will be provided to enhance the professional and regulatory capabilities of electronic cigarette manufacturers, focusing on innovation and brand development [6][7]. - Strict regulations will be enforced against the illegal sale of electronic cigarettes through various online platforms [6][7]. - A credit supervision system will be developed to differentiate regulatory measures based on compliance levels, simplifying processes for compliant companies [6][7].

国家烟草专卖局关于落实电子烟产业政策 进一步推动供需动态平衡的通知 一、规范企业投资行为。 严格落实电子烟限制类产业政策要求，不得投资新建项目，迁建及恢复建设项目不得增加产能。原址技术改造 （含生产设备购置）项目一般不得增加产能，确需增加产能的，应符合电子烟产业政策、监管政策以及产能管理规定，产能利用率处于较高 水平，具有真实且持续增加的市场需求以及与生产经营相配套的安全卫生环保设施设备和技术条件，符合智能化、绿色化、融合化方向，并 严格按照《电子烟固定资产投资管理细则》（国烟法〔2024〕104号）有关要求履行程序。其中，以出口销售为主的企业应证明新增产能 所生产的产品符合目的地国家（地区）的法律法规和监管要求。电子烟相关生产企业原址技术改造扩大产能不得导致电子烟产业总产能增 加。电子烟相关生产企业不得违规增加生产线数量、能力或增设零配件产线，不得将主要生产工序委托至无证企业代工，禁止变相扩大生产 能力、规避固定资产投资审批。电子烟相关生产企业投资或产能整合重组应当符合反垄断法律法规及相关规定。 各省级烟草专卖局： 为落实电子烟产业政策，规范产业运行秩序，综合整治电子烟产业"内卷式"竞争，化解并防范产能过剩 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongrui Co., Ltd. (001201) aims to achieve a pig output of 2 million heads by 2026, with a target of approximately 260,000 heads for Hong Kong, while reducing the total cost of commodity pigs to below 13 yuan/kg [1] Group 1: Company Plans - The company has a capital expenditure budget of approximately 160 million yuan for 2026, primarily for facility upgrades and capacity expansion [1] - The company plans to utilize a contract farming model to produce 250,000 heads of pigs [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The central government's No. 1 document for 2026 mentions capacity regulation, subsidies, and insurance policies, which may provide operational stability for the company [1] - The company anticipates a net profit loss of between 120 million to 170 million yuan in 2025, mainly due to falling pig prices, which may pose challenges for performance improvement in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in a relaxed supply environment, with overall pig prices declining throughout 2025, despite a slight year-end recovery, remaining at relatively low levels. The competition is shifting from scale expansion to efficiency and collaboration within the industry chain [2][5][26]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The pig farming industry is expected to face supply pressure in the first half of 2026, with a projected output of 719.73 million pigs in 2025, a 2.4% increase, and a pork production of 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase [2][4]. - The breeding efficiency is improving, with the average number of weaned piglets per sow increasing from 18.32 in 2021 to 24.03 in 2024, indicating a reduction in production costs [4][6]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with over 70% of pig farming being scaled, and the top 20 companies accounting for over 30% of output [4][5]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - Overall pork consumption is expected to show weak recovery in 2026, influenced by population and income levels, with a projected per capita pork consumption of 26.6 kg per year, a 5.4% decrease from the previous year [8][9]. - The demand for pork is being affected by the availability of alternative meats, which may divert consumption away from pork [8][9]. - The overall pig price trend in 2025 was downward, with slight year-end recovery, but still at low levels, influenced by seasonal demand and supply pressures [9][11]. Industry Chain Position Analysis - The pig farming industry is positioned as a conversion link in the value chain, connecting upstream feed and breeding industries with downstream slaughtering and processing sectors [12]. - The bargaining power of upstream suppliers is weak, while the downstream bargaining power varies, with leading companies establishing long-term supply agreements to enhance pricing power [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards efficiency and collaboration, with leading companies focusing on integrated operations across the supply chain [14][16]. Innovation Capability Analysis - The industry is guided by policies aimed at stabilizing production and improving quality, with a focus on enhancing breeding efficiency and reducing costs through technological advancements [17][19]. - Leading companies are leveraging technology to restructure cost advantages, while smaller firms are encouraged to innovate in niche markets [20][21]. - The regulatory environment is evolving towards more systematic management, emphasizing compliance and quality control across the supply chain [19]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - In 2025, the agricultural sector issued 75 bonds totaling 51.134 billion yuan, with major issuers being leading companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope [21][22]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence in credit quality, with larger firms maintaining stable financing channels while smaller firms face tighter financing conditions [25][27]. - The overall credit risk in the pig farming industry is manageable, with stronger companies expected to solidify their credit standing amid ongoing market pressures [27].

Group 1 - The panel market is experiencing a "not dull off-season" with demand front-loading and supply-side adjustments, creating conditions for price increases [1][2] - The average price forecast for large-size panels in February 2026 shows an upward trend, with 65-inch TV panels expected to reach $171, a $2 increase from January, representing a 1.2% rise [1] - Major panel manufacturers are effectively stabilizing prices through capacity adjustments, which positively impacts profitability [1][2] Group 2 - The supply of medium and large-size panels is highly concentrated among leading companies, which are likely to adopt a unified pricing strategy, further reduced supply during the Chinese New Year [2] - The overall price trend for panels is expected to stabilize, with 65-inch TV panels projected to fluctuate between $168 and $177 throughout 2025, indicating reduced volatility [2] - Chinese panel manufacturers have increased their global market share to over 70% through continuous technological advancements and scale advantages, enhancing their pricing power [2][3] Group 3 - TCL Technology's subsidiary, TCL Huaxing, is maintaining competitive advantages in large-size products while rapidly growing in the small and medium-size segments, with a projected revenue exceeding 100 billion yuan and net profit over 8 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - BOE Technology Group is optimizing its product structure, with significant advancements in OLED technology, including the early activation of its 8.6-generation AMOLED production line, expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026 [3] - The panel price is anticipated to remain moderately volatile in 2026, with major events like the World Cup expected to drive market demand [3]