价值投资理念
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霍华德·马克斯看周期:智者所始,愚者所终
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 19:08
如果看看橡树资本的业绩,你就知道马克斯备受推崇的原因了——橡树资本成立时间20多年,管理资产 已经到了1000亿美元的巨大规模,20多年来橡树资本的平均回报率高达19%,相比同期美股S&P 500的 表现只有10.1%,MSCI全球指数只有4.9%。下文是对霍华德·马克斯的采访记录。 01 马克斯指出,随着时间的推移,市场围绕一个中间点上下波动的形态,即为周期。 有时我们认定某个中间点为稳定状态,就像处于正常水平的市盈率一样。 而有时不同时期的中间点呈现出直线型的长期趋势,正如股市走势一样。在不同时期的中间点呈现出具 有周期性的长期趋势,正如人类文明或经济的发展形态一样。 一系列的事件将市场上上下下地推进从而形成了周期,但是,事件并非毫无缘由地接踵而至,而是存在 着因果关系,在其映射下,我们才能更好地理解周期。 马克斯举了如下的例子:高收益债券发行量会影响困境债务投资机会规模,在某个周期中: •投资者的避险情绪将限制高收益债券发行量,并推升高质量债券需求,令高质量债券发行量上升。 •高质量债券发行量上升,因此市场整体违约率会调整至较低水平。 •违约率调整至较低水平会使投资者感到过度满意,并愿意承担高风险。 • ...
突传噩耗!原知名基金经理王宗合病逝,因抓住2019年白酒行情名声大噪,一举成为鹏华基金“顶流”,旗下管理基金曾刷新公募基金首日认购记录,达到1371亿元
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-30 11:13
回顾王宗合的职业生涯,其抓住了2019年的白酒行情而名声大噪,实现业绩、规模齐飞,一举成为鹏华 基金的"顶流"。当时,王宗合管理的鹏华消费优选抓住2019年的白酒行情,鹏华养老产业基金也十分亮 眼,成为全市场为数不多的股混双料金牛基金经理。 2020年7月,王宗合管理的鹏华匠心精选混合首发,首日申购资金达到1371亿元,刷新了当时单只公募 基金发行认购的记录,让他登上了"国民基金经理"的宝座。Wind数据显示,截至当年三季度末,其在 管规模暴涨至554.26亿元,较二季度末增长超400亿,在管产品增至10只,带动了鹏华基金的混基规模 从700多亿元翻倍增至1400亿元。 不过两年多后传出其身体抱恙的消息,王宗合开始密集卸任其管理的基金。 2023年2月,王宗合一口气卸任了鹏华成长价值等4只业绩靠后的基金。2月4日,鹏华成长价值、鹏华优 质回报两年定开发布基金经理变更公告,因公司安排,王宗合自同日起不再担任上述两只产品的基金经 理。其中,鹏华成长价值由原先共同管理的基金经理梁超继续管理,而鹏华优质回报两年定开由原先共 同管理的基金经理王璐继续管理。 资管行业传来噩耗! 今日,一则关于原知名基金经理王宗合于202 ...
年内领涨A股红利!中证红利质量ETF(159209)获资金连续爆买12日!世茂能源盘中10CM封板
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 05:47
Group 1 - The A-share market showed a strong performance after initial declines, with the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) rising by 0.51% as of 13:20 on December 30, 2023 [1] - Key stocks contributing to the ETF's performance included Shimao Energy, which hit the daily limit, along with Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yuntianhua, 37 Interactive Entertainment, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, all showing significant gains [1] - The ETF has seen a year-to-date increase of over 20%, leading the A-share dividend ETFs, with continuous net inflows for 12 consecutive days [1] Group 2 - Unlike typical dividend strategies, the ETF tracks the CSI Dividend Quality Index, which emphasizes not only dividend yield but also the stability of earnings, growth potential, and financial quality, aligning with a value investment philosophy of buying quality companies at reasonable prices [2] - After rebalancing in December, Kweichow Moutai became the largest weighted stock in the ETF, alongside other quality companies like Midea Group and Dong-E E-Jiao, known for their sustainable dividend capabilities and profit growth [2] - Historical data indicates that this index has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the long term, with its total return index leading its peers this year, making the "quality dividend" strategy an important allocation direction for investors seeking both dividend income and long-term growth in a declining risk-free yield environment [2]
根本停不下来!年内领涨A股红利,中证红利质量ETF(159209)获连续11日增仓
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 06:29
Core Insights - The China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) has outperformed traditional dividend strategies in 2025, achieving over 20% growth year-to-date and reaching a price high since its inception nine months ago [1][2] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows for 11 consecutive trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The ETF's unique "high dividend + high quality" dual selection logic has contributed to its strong performance amidst a challenging market for traditional dividend strategies [1] - The ETF has led the market in the dividend ETF category, showcasing its resilience and appeal to investors [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Unlike typical dividend strategies, the ETF tracks the China Securities Dividend Quality Index, which emphasizes not only dividend yield but also the stability, growth, and financial quality of companies [2] - The investment philosophy aligns with value investing, focusing on acquiring quality companies at reasonable prices [2] Group 3: Portfolio Composition - Following a rebalancing in December, Kweichow Moutai has become the largest weighted stock in the ETF, alongside other quality companies like Midea Group and Dong-E E-Jiao, which have consistent dividend capabilities and profit growth [2] - Historical data indicates that the index has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 Index over the long term, with its total return index leading its peers this year [2] Group 4: Market Context - In a market environment where risk-free returns are declining, the "quality dividend" strategy is emerging as an important allocation direction for investors seeking both dividend income and long-term growth [2]
“有进有退”优化资本市场资源配置
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-12-28 16:23
■邢萌 今年以来,资本市场加力服务新质生产力发展,进一步畅通优质创新企业的上市通道:科创板"1+6"改革举措加快落地, 重启未盈利企业第五套上市标准,适用范围扩大至人工智能、商业航天、低空经济等前沿领域,加大对新兴产业和未来产业的 支持力度;创业板启动第三套标准,支持优质未盈利创新企业上市……一系列举措,打通优质创新企业上市堵点难点,靶向支 持新质生产力重点领域,强化创新驱动发展的资本支撑。 同时,资本市场常态化退市机制持续优化,严格强制退市标准,拓宽多元化退出渠道,加大对"僵尸空壳"和"害群之马"出 清力度,持续净化市场生态,维护投资者合法权益。"进出"之间,显示出我国资本市场正在加速实现"增量提质"与"存量优 化",服务实体经济的能力显著增强。 二是市场各方各司其职、归位尽责,严把上市关,推动"应退尽退",筑牢优胜劣汰机制的运行基础。 资本市场优胜劣汰良好格局的形成,离不开各参与方的共同努力:监管机构健全规则体系,加大执法力度,保护投资者利 益;企业切实履行信息披露与合规经营的首要责任;证券公司、会计师事务所、律师事务所等中介机构履行"看门人"职责,开 展专业独立的核查工作;投资者通过理性参与和公众监督形 ...
陈雳:金融五篇大文章助力新质生产力发展
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-15 04:15
来源:中国经营报 【陈雳:做好金融"五篇大文章"赋能新质生产力发展】"在百年未有之大变局下,面对高度不确定的外部环境,我们更需练好内功,加快实现国产自立与科 技突破。资本市场也将大力做好金融'五篇大文章',齐心聚力支持新质生产力,树立价值投资理念、做好耐心资本,为'十五五'高质量发展和中国企业竞争 力提升再添一把火。"针对金融机构如何优化资源配置、聚焦国家战略,以及资本市场在培育新质生产力中独特作用的话题,川财证券首席经济学家、研究 所所长陈雳如是说。中经记者 郭婧婷 北京报道 ...
吴清:发挥首席经济学家及行业研究团队作用 讲好中国股市叙事
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-12-06 08:37
12月6日,在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上,证监会主席吴清提到,证券行业机构要带头践行价值 投资理念,强化跨周期、逆周期布局,提升投资稳健性和价值判断能力。要发挥好首席经济学家和行业 机构分析研究专长,舆论引导中主动发声,针对市场非理性声音及热点话题,输出理性分析,避免不实 信息扩散与情绪性炒作。讲好中国股市叙事,积极营造舆论环境,对非理性谣言自觉进行抵制。 ...
吴清:证券公司要自觉维护市场秩序,践行价值投资理念
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-06 08:05
12月6日,在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上,证监会主席吴清围绕证券行业高质量发展发表致辞。 吴清指出,近几年证券行业的变化是从简单追求规模利润的扩张,加快转向功能优先,要继续巩固这一 良好趋势,坚决摒弃简单的拼规模、增速、争排名的情况。吴清指出,证券行业要实现高质量发展,需 要把握服务实体经济的根本,优化业务结构,创新产品工具,围绕金融五篇大文章,加大资金、人才、 技术等方面的资源配置,突出服务新质生产力发展的重点,深入研判科技创新和产业创新融合趋势,提 升产品的精准性,要自觉承担保护投资者合法权益和促进稳市兴市的社会责任,时刻牢记个人投资者占 绝大多数的市情,自觉维护市场秩序和"三公"原则,践行价值投资理念,强化跨周期、逆周期布局,发 挥好首席经济学家和行业机构分析研究专长,讲好中国股市叙事,积极营造舆论环境。(人民财讯) ...
吴清:证券公司要自觉维护市场秩序 践行价值投资理念
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-06 07:53
人民财讯12月6日电,12月6日,在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上,证监会主席吴清围绕证券行业高 质量发展发表致辞。吴清指出,近几年证券行业的变化是从简单追求规模利润的扩张,加快转向功能优 先,要继续巩固这一良好趋势,坚决摒弃简单的拼规模、增速、争排名的情况。吴清指出,证券行业要 实现高质量发展,需要把握服务实体经济的根本,优化业务结构,创新产品工具,围绕金融五篇大文 章,加大资金、人才、技术等方面的资源配置,突出服务新质生产力发展的重点,深入研判科技创新和 产业创新融合趋势,提升产品的精准性,要自觉承担保护投资者合法权益和促进稳市兴市的社会责任, 时刻牢记个人投资者占绝大多数的市情,自觉维护市场秩序和"三公"原则,践行价值投资理念,强化跨 周期、逆周期布局,发挥好首席经济学家和行业机构分析研究专长,讲好中国股市叙事,积极营造舆论 环境。 MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! 责任编辑:凌辰 人民财讯12月6日电,12月6日,在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上,证监会主席吴清围绕证券行业高 质量发展发表致辞。吴清指出,近几年证券行业的变化是从简单追求规模利润的扩张,加快 ...
杨德龙:大盘走势持续震荡调整 不会改变中长期向上走势
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-11-20 10:19
Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, indicating significant divergence between bulls and bears as investors take profits towards year-end [1][2] - This bull market is characterized by a "dumbbell" structure, with low valuation, high dividend sectors like banks driving the index up, while tech innovation sectors such as AI and semiconductors show strong performance [2][3] - The current bull market is supported by policy initiatives and capital inflows, with A-shares and H-shares being seen as undervalued compared to US stocks, attracting global investment [3] Group 2 - The ongoing bull market is expected to stimulate consumer spending, with a potential shift from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market by 2026, enhancing consumer confidence and economic growth [4] - The evolution of the bull market is anticipated to follow a sequence where tech stocks lead, followed by mid-cap stocks, and finally traditional sectors, with a focus on balanced portfolio allocation [5] - In the tech sector, the demand for computing power is expected to rise, with significant partnerships highlighting the strategic importance of computing infrastructure, suggesting investment opportunities in related technologies [6][7]