Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Travel and Transportation Industry**: The overall passenger volume during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday maintained a high growth rate, although the recovery speed has slowed down. The average ticket price remained strong, benefiting airline revenues. The overall flight volume increased by 3.2% year-on-year, with international flights up by 10.3% [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Airline Performance**: Despite underperforming during the summer travel season, airlines showed resilience in the off-peak season. The demand from businesses began to recover in late September, alleviating pricing and occupancy pressures. It is expected that the price recovery trend will continue into the fourth quarter and the first two quarters of the following year, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity in the airline sector [1][5]. - **Rail and Road Transport**: Both rail and road transport maintained steady growth during the holiday period, with no significant issues in demand or capacity. The overall fundamentals of the sector are showing a positive trend [1][6]. - **Tourism and Hotel Industry**: The tourism and hotel sectors experienced a general increase in visitor numbers between 5% and 10%. Self-driving travel has become more popular, and niche tourism destinations have gained traction. For instance, hotel occupancy rates in certain areas like Jingdezhen reached full capacity, indicating a trend towards market diversification [1][7][9]. - **International Travel Demand**: At Pudong Airport, the inbound and outbound flow increased by 24% in the first four days of the holiday, with a 16% increase in Chinese travelers, indicating strong international travel demand [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Hotel Pricing Trends**: The hotel industry showed significant price increases during the holiday, with some areas experiencing price hikes of over ten times the usual rates. However, the phenomenon of "camping" instead of staying in hotels is not widespread [1][10]. - **Duty-Free Market Performance**: The duty-free market, particularly in Hainan, has shown positive growth, with Sanya International Duty-Free City reporting a single-day sales increase of over 60%. The overall duty-free market in Hainan grew by 7% to 4%, driven by low base effects and mobile phone sales [2][11]. - **Future Outlook**: The tourism accommodation sector is expected to see positive growth in room rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR) in 2025, with optimistic projections for 2026 due to low base effects and strong holiday performance [1][10].

低基数效应、反内卷上游行业毛利率改善、个别行业投资收益确认是利润高增的主因。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 8月规模以上工业企业利润同比大幅回升21个百分点至19.8%， 低基数效应、反内卷上游行业毛利率改善、酒饮料茶行业投资收益确认， 是推动利润同比大幅走高的三个主要原因。 8月利润同比高增的第一大贡献是反内卷带来上游制造业利润率（暂时性）改善。 8月工业企业利润总额6726亿元，同比多增1114亿元，其中上游制造业利润总额同比多增555.6亿元，贡献了49.9%的利润增长。 上游工业企业利润的大幅好转主要来自于黑色金属和有色金属， 8月两个行业利润总额分别为193、339亿元，同比多增336、128亿元。 行业利润增加主要是因为在反内卷驱动下，行业毛利率上行。8月黑色金属加工业的毛利率为7%，去年同期为2%（年内最低），因此在相 同营业收入下，毛利润多增329亿元。有色金属加工业的毛利润同比多增113亿元。 8月利润同比高增的第二大贡献是个别行业的投资收益确认发生变化。 8月投资收益同比多增502亿元（同比增长66.6%），贡献了45%的利润增长，剔除掉投资收益之后，8月工业企业利润同比增长13%，环 ...

证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 / 2025.09.28 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com 相关报告 单击或点击此处输入文字。 基数支撑工业盈利 ❖ 基数是 8 月工业利润大幅增长的主要原因：价格和利润率两个利润的拉 动项中，低基数效应都较为明显。8 月，PPI 翘尾因素由-1.4%回升至-0.7%， PPI 同比增速 0.7 个百分点的回升几乎全部由基数贡献；而利润率方面，2024 年 8 月工业企业利润率逆季节性由 7 月的 5.3%下滑至 5.0%，显著弱于季节 性水平。 ❖ 低基数对工业企业利润增速短期内仍有支撑：一方面，PPI 翘尾因素将 在 9 月进一步提升 0.6 个百分点至-0.1%；另一方面，2024 年 9 月工业企 业利润率仍然是在逆季节性回落。 ❖ "反内卷"和国庆双节的影响在部分行业的经营数据中有所体现：煤 炭开采、黑色冶炼和有色冶炼行业相关指标的改善指向反内卷政策初步见效， 饮料茶酒的改善可能与双节临近带动相关产品需求增加有一定关 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August, corporate profits showed a year-on-year recovery primarily due to a low base from the previous year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to July when viewed from a two-year annualized perspective [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Profit Trends - Corporate profits in August returned to positive year-on-year growth, largely influenced by last year's low base, with a notable slowdown in growth rate compared to July when viewed on a two-year basis [1] - The profit distribution has become more reasonable, with upstream industries benefiting from price increases and showing overall improvement, while the profit disparity in midstream and downstream industries continues [1] Revenue and Profit Margins - The trend in August indicated a decrease in volume but an increase in price, with marginal improvements in revenue and profit margins supported by the low base effect [1] - Industrial product inventory continues to decrease, leading to an improvement in corporate revenue growth year-on-year [1] Future Outlook - For corporate profits to achieve sustained and comprehensive recovery, policy support is essential. Effective stimulation of downstream demand could potentially transition industrial profits from structural recovery to comprehensive rebound [1]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 09 月 27 日 企业盈利增速转正 ——2025 年 8 月工业企业利润分析 频率：每月 事件：2025 年 9 月 27 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 8 月全国规模以上工业企业 绩效数据。8 月份，规模以上工业企业营业收入累计同比增速为 2.3%（2025 年 7 月为 2.3%）；规模以上工业企业利润累计同比增速为 0.9%（2025 年 7 月 为-1.7%)。 风险提示：政策变动、经济修复不及预期。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《 财政集中发力期渐进—— 2025 年 8 月财政数据点评》 2025-09-18 2、《降息指引低于预期——9 月美联储议息会议点评》2025- 09-18 3、《固定投资继续降速 —— 2025 年 8 月份经济数据点评》 2025-09-16 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 罗丹 S1090524070004 luodan7@cmschina.com.cn 资料来源：Wind、招商证券 资料来源：Wind、招商证券 -50 0 50 100 2020-01 ...

宏 观 研 究 工企数据 2025 年 09 月 27 日 如何理解 8 月利润走强？ ——工业企业效益数据点评（25.08） ⚫ 常规跟踪：工企利润回升，利润率大幅改善。 利润：工企利润大幅上行，主因营业利润率提升。8 月，工业企业利润当月同比上行 21.9pct 至 20.4%。分解来看，营业利润率当月同比较上月回升 20.2pct 至 17.5%，PPI 当月同比 较上月回升 0.7pct 至-2.9%。但工业增加值当月同比较上月回落 0.5pct 至 5.2%。 营收：工企营收增速有所回升，化学纤维、有色延压等行业营收回升较大。8 月，工企营 业收入当月同比较前月回升 1.2pct 至 2.3%。分行业看，化学纤维、有色延压、非金属制 品营收回升较大，当月同比较上月分别+22.2、+7.6、+7.4pct 至 15.9%、15.4%、0.7%。 库存：实际库存增速小幅回升，其中上游库存处于历史高位。8 月，工企名义库存同比较 上月-0.1pct 至 2.3%；剔除价格因素后，实际库存较前月回升，当月同比+0.3pct 至 7.2%。 结构上（截止 7 月），上游库存处于历史高位，中游、下游库存相对偏低 ...

国家统计局9月27日发布的数据显示，1-8月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1-7月份同比下降1.7%转为增 长0.9%，扭转了自今年5月份以来企业累计利润持续下降态势。 从月度看，8月份规模以上工业企业利润两位数增长，由7月份下降1.5%转为增长20.4%，工业企业当月 利润改善明显。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，在宏观政策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进，叠加去年 同期低基数等多重因素作用下，1-8月份规模以上工业企业利润同比增长0.9%，装备制造业支撑有力， 不同规模企业利润均有所改善。 工业企业营业收入增长加快，为企业盈利继续恢复创造有利条件。1-8月份，规模以上工业企业营业收 入同比增长2.3%，与1-7月份持平。其中，8月份工业企业营业收入增长1.9%，较7月份加快1.0个百分 点。 从三大门类看，1-8月份，制造业增长7.4%，较1-7月份加快2.6个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和 供应业增长9.4%，加快5.5个百分点；采矿业下降30.6%，降幅收窄1.0个百分点。 分行业来看，装备制造业"压舱石"作用明显，原材料制造业利润增长较快，消费品制造业利润由降转 增。 扭转了自今年5月份以来 ...

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in August, with a month-on-month change of 0% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][4] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [1][2] - The tail effect from last year's price changes contributed approximately -0.9 percentage points to the year-on-year CPI in August, with a downward impact that expanded by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Food prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, but this was 1.1 percentage points below seasonal levels, with significant year-on-year declines in pork, eggs, and fresh vegetables [4] Food Price Dynamics - Year-on-year food prices decreased by 4.3%, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, contributing an additional 0.51 percentage points to the CPI's year-on-year decline [4] - Specific declines included pork prices down 16.1%, fresh vegetables down 15.2%, and eggs down 14.2%, all showing an increase in downward pressure on CPI compared to the previous month [4] Core CPI and Industrial Prices - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects ongoing consumer demand and the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption [4][5] - Industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, rose by 1.5% year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices increasing significantly [6] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the CPI may remain weak throughout the year, with potential recovery towards the end of the year due to low base effects and supportive policies [6] - The impact of consumption-boosting policies is expected to further support prices of major goods in September [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady revenue growth in Q2 2025, but rising expense ratios have led to short-term profit pressure. A mid-term dividend was announced with a high payout ratio of 124%, indicating strong dividend yield performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company generated revenue of 6.149 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was 325 million yuan, down 41.2% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 296 million yuan, down 45.2% year-on-year. In Q2 alone, revenue reached 3.07 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, but net profit fell to 110 million yuan, down 46.3% year-on-year [2][3]. Expense Analysis - In Q2 2025, revenue increased by 9% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 0.9 percentage points. However, due to increased offline store openings and online marketing expenses, the sales expense ratio rose by 3.0 percentage points. Additionally, financial expense ratios increased by 2.7 percentage points, leading to a total expense pressure increase of 5.2 percentage points, which contributed to a decline in net profit margin by 3.8 percentage points [3]. Brand and Channel Performance - For H1 2025, revenue from casual wear and children's wear was 1.723 billion yuan and 4.313 billion yuan, respectively, with casual wear down 5.0% and children's wear up 6.0% year-on-year. The number of stores for casual wear and children's wear decreased by 11 and 78, respectively. In terms of sales channels, online revenue was down 0.1%, while direct sales increased by 34.8%, and franchise and joint venture revenues decreased by 2.8% and 25.3%, respectively [3]. Dividend Announcement - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a high payout ratio of 124%. The dividend yield is considered excellent. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the company anticipates improved fundamentals due to steady revenue growth and a low base effect in Q3 2024 [4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Gold and Jewelry Sector Key Insights and Arguments - **Sales Growth Projections**: - Chao Hong Ji expects over 10% same-store sales growth by the end of August, with overall growth projected at 4%-5%, outperforming the industry average due to the timing of the Qixi Festival and a low base effect [1][2]. - Franchisees anticipate same-store growth of 25%-30% in the second half of the year, leading to an overall growth rate exceeding 40%, potentially reaching 45% for the year, driven by low base effects, high gold prices, and new store openings [1][4]. - **Average Sales Performance**: - The average sales per store for Chao Hong Ji is expected to reach 7.5 million yuan, with the East China region exceeding 7 million yuan. The same-store sales growth in East China is projected to be over 20%-30% [1][7]. - **Product Mix Changes**: - The proportion of gold weight products has increased to 60%, surpassing national and East China averages. Fixed-price gold products account for about 30%, with small items making up 20% and large embedded series 10% [1][9]. - **Customer Demographics**: - The primary customer base is aged 20 to 45, with a notable decrease in the proportion of post-90s and post-95s consumers. However, the average transaction value has significantly increased, with average item prices rising to 4,000-4,500 yuan and customer transaction values reaching 6,000-7,000 yuan [1][11]. Competitive Landscape - **Performance of Competitors**: - Chow Tai Fook reported a same-store growth of 16.2% in July, with a year-on-year increase of 29.5%, but expected a contraction to -15% in August due to the timing of the Qixi Festival [3][13]. - Zhou Dasheng's sales increased by 2.4% in July, with gold sales up 5.6%. The same-store growth for August is projected at 3.5% [3][29]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - **Franchisee Sentiment**: - Franchisees express optimism for the second half of the year and next year, citing low base effects and high gold prices as key drivers for market performance [5][4]. - **Store Expansion Plans**: - Chao Hong Ji plans to open two new stores in the second half of the year, maintaining a steady growth strategy with an expected annual addition of 300 stores [8][4]. Product Structure and Pricing Strategy - **Product Categories**: - The product structure shows a significant shift towards gold weight products, with fixed-price gold products gaining traction. The average sales per store are expected to reach 7.5 million yuan, with a potential increase to 10 million yuan in the next two to three years [1][7][9]. - **Pricing Mechanism**: - The pricing strategy for weight-based gold products is based on market gold prices plus processing fees, with discounts applied [23][24]. Challenges and Risks - **Market Volatility**: - The industry faces challenges from fluctuating gold prices and the impact of the Qixi Festival's timing on sales performance, with competitors experiencing significant declines [2][3][13]. Conclusion - The gold and jewelry sector, particularly Chao Hong Ji, is poised for growth driven by favorable market conditions, strategic store expansions, and a shift in product offerings. However, the competitive landscape remains challenging, with significant fluctuations in sales performance among key players.