Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai copper, the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The fundamental situation has no significant change. The market is waiting for new drivers, with support at 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Thursday [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to frequent disturbances at the mine end and the approaching peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and the price is expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, it is recommended to view it as a weak and volatile market due to the weakening cost side [15]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is cooling, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [21]. - For urea, in the short term, it will mainly show a strong and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Urea rose more than 3%, PX and rapeseed meal rose more than 1%. Silicon iron fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon, alumina, soda ash, and eggs fell more than 2%. Stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, while treasury bond futures of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year all rose [6]. - As of 15:21 on August 19, in terms of capital flow, palm oil 2601, glass 2601, and soybean meal 2601 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [8]. Shanghai Copper - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of concentrate copper ore has decreased to a five - year low. The collapse of the El Teniente mine has led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees continue to rise steadily. There is only one smelter with a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production may decline in the later third quarter [10]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. Real estate still drags down demand, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating a weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: As of the week of August 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons compared with the previous week. The spot price of spodumene has been rising, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [11]. - Demand: The market's purchasing sentiment has increased, and there is a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. In the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to the approaching peak season and supply - side disturbances [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus [12]. - Demand: It is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. The inventory of crude oil and diesel has increased, and the overall oil product inventory continues to rise. The economic situation in the United States has raised concerns, which will increase the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter [12]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%. The estimated production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month but increased by 17.1% year - on - year [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries mostly increased last week, but the national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and rainfall [15]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises is around 84%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has decreased to about 25%. A new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded to 49.35%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is still high. It is expected to enter the peak season soon, and the operating rate of plastic weaving has slightly increased [16]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 82.5%. A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year has been put into operation recently, and the operating rate has slightly decreased [18]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased to 39.47%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. The orders of agricultural films and packaging films have decreased. The consumption off - season has not ended, and the inventory pressure is still high [18]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 80.33%. New production capacities will be put into production in August, September. The export expectation in the second half of the year has weakened [19][20]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has slightly decreased. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is large [19][20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The supply data has increased this period, the production of clean coal and raw coal has increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal has decreased [21]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production of downstream coke has increased while the inventory has decreased. However, the iron - water production has decreased this period, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The seventh round of coke price increase has started, but there is resistance from downstream customers [21]. Urea - Supply: The production of urea plants increased last week, and there were both shutdowns and restarts this period, with overall narrow fluctuations [22]. - Demand: Domestic demand is insufficient. The compound fertilizer factories are in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating rate has reached a historical high. The melamine operating rate has decreased, and the terminal furniture market is cold. The inventory of urea plants has increased and is at a five - year high [22][23].

Group 1 - Oil futures rose over 1% amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts, with Brent crude closing at $66.60 per barrel, up 1.14%, and WTI crude rising 0.99% to $63.42 [1] - Ukraine is set to commit to purchasing $100 billion worth of military equipment from the U.S. in exchange for security guarantees following a peace agreement with Russia [4] - The U.S. and European leaders are focused on providing strong security assurances to Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of a united front for peace in the region [4] Group 2 - The market is awaiting clarity on the direction of the Ukraine war, with analysts suggesting that a constructive agreement between the U.S. and Russia could lead to a decrease in oil prices due to increased global supply [5] - There are significant obstacles to a peace agreement that would reintegrate Russian energy products into the market, particularly due to ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tensions [6] - Concerns remain regarding the impact of India's purchase of Russian oil on the Ukraine conflict, as it complicates the supply flow and raises diplomatic tensions [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price was under pressure, with New York gold falling below the $3,400 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia and the Russia-Ukraine situation over the weekend was negative for the gold price. Technically, New York gold was at the high end of the trading range since the second quarter, and there was strong willingness among long positions to liquidate [3][27]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut may increase as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is positive for the gold price. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 21st to 23rd, and attention can be paid to the speech of Fed Chairman Powell [3][27]. - Overall, the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold, but no specific summary of the weekly trend is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From August 8th to August 15th, COMEX gold decreased by 2.21% from $3,458.20 to $3,381.70, COMEX silver decreased by 1.27% from $38.51 to $38.02, SHFE gold main contract decreased by 1.52% from 787.80 to 775.80, and SHFE silver main contract decreased by 0.80% from 9,278.00 to 9,204.00. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42% from 98.26 to 97.85, the 10-year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.07 from 1.88 to 1.95, the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% from 6,389.45 to 6,449.80, and the US crude oil continuous decreased by 0.33% from 63.35 to 63.14. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.95% from 89.80 to 88.95, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.73% from 84.91 to 84.29. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 5.73 from 959.64 to 965.37, and the iShare Gold ETF increased by 0.68 from 452.61 to 453.29 [8] 2. Gold Price Reached a High and Then Fell - Last week, the gold price was under pressure and declined. On one hand, US President Trump refuted rumors about gold tariffs; on the other hand, the expectation of the US-Russia meeting led to a relaxation of geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the gold price reached a high and then fell, and New York gold was still in the trading range since the second quarter, facing significant technical pressure [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of August 12th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,079 contracts, short positions increased by 3,486 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 7,565 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs, but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16] - Recently, the changes in precious metal ETFs have been relatively small [18] - Last week, the gold-silver ratio decreased as the gold price weakened [21] - Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased, while the 2-year US Treasury yield remained stable, and the 10-2 year spread widened [22] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating that the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil price fluctuations, while copper and gold prices are expected to rise [2][6] Domestic Demand - Sales of new homes, second-hand homes, and passenger cars are all experiencing a decline in growth rates. In August, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales decreased in volume but increased in price. The market is in a seasonal downturn, compounded by internal competition, with July passenger car sales growth rates for both retail and wholesale declining. The average sales price of home appliances has mostly decreased [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance continue to exceed last year's levels, driven by popular films, with summer box office revenue surpassing 7.7 billion yuan. Tourism consumption remains strong, with hotel occupancy rates rising and revenue per available room increasing, consistently above last year’s figures. Additionally, inbound tourism is performing well, with the Google "China Travel" search index reaching new highs, and international flight operations continuing to rise compared to last year [2] External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S. Former President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, as well as small tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with future rates potentially rising to 250%. Furthermore, a 25% punitive tariff will be applied to Indian purchases of Russian oil [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a decline in CCFI shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput. The growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. is decreasing, and shipping volumes continue to decline. Traditional transshipment regions, such as Southeast Asian ports, are also seeing a year-on-year decrease in docking volumes. In June, new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell year-on-year, with transportation equipment manufacturing being a significant drag [3] Production - Weather factors are impacting prices, with high temperatures suppressing demand. However, steel mill profitability is on the rise, and production growth rates for sample steel mills continue to increase. The industry’s self-imposed production cuts have had limited effects, leading to a decrease in rebar prices this week. The glass industry, previously influenced by internal competition, has also seen price declines due to limited changes in fundamentals [4] - Due to typhoons and heavy rainfall, cement shipment rates are low, but national average cement prices have risen this week. However, the direct supply of cement to construction sites has decreased week-on-week, and the funding availability rate for sample construction sites has also declined, indicating overall weak downstream demand [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants has increased this week due to sustained high temperatures, while frequent rainfall has restricted coal production and transportation in major producing areas, leading to a slight decrease in coal market supply and a continued rise in thermal coal prices [5] Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are declining. Weakness in the U.S. labor market has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold prices. A mining accident in Chile, combined with expectations for rate cuts, has driven copper prices upward. Conversely, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation and continued OPEC+ production increases have put downward pressure on oil prices [6]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable overall, with some brands experiencing slight declines. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 5 yuan per gram to 1007 yuan per gram, which is 1 yuan lower than the highest price among gold stores [1] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold stores has narrowed to 38 yuan per gram [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands on July 15, 2025, show fluctuations, with notable prices including Lao Miao at 1003 yuan per gram (down 2 yuan), and Shanghai China Gold remaining stable at 969 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices continue to decline, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price dropping by 9 yuan per gram yesterday and an additional 4 yuan today, now priced at 556 yuan per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery price has slightly increased by 0.3 yuan per gram, with significant differences in recovery prices among brands. For example, the recovery price for Chow Sang Sang is 768.80 yuan per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang is at 777.70 yuan per gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Market - The international gold market saw a decline due to President Trump's open attitude towards tariff negotiations and a rise in the US dollar index, leading to a closing price of 3343.19 USD per ounce, down 0.35% [4] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price has rebounded to 3364.05 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.62% increase [4] - Market expectations for a 60.1% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are supporting gold prices, with anticipation for the upcoming US CPI data that could further influence these expectations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic shifts of the U.S. under President Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting his inconsistent approach and recent announcements about military support for Ukraine and potential tariffs on Russia [1][2]. Group 1: Tariffs and Economic Measures - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, threatening to impose severe tariffs on Russia if no agreement is reached within 50 days, with a proposed tax rate of approximately 100% [4]. - A White House official clarified that the tariffs would apply to Russia and countries purchasing Russian oil if an agreement is not achieved [4]. Group 2: Military Support for Ukraine - The U.S. has reached an agreement with NATO to supply advanced weaponry to Ukraine, with Trump stating that NATO will coordinate the delivery of these weapons [5][6]. - Trump mentioned that NATO would cover the costs of military equipment, with significant supplies, including the "Patriot" missile system, expected to arrive in Ukraine within days [6]. - Several European countries, including Germany and Canada, are also expected to contribute to the military support for Ukraine through NATO [6]. Group 3: Legislative Actions and Sanctions - Trump expressed uncertainty about the necessity of a new severe sanctions bill against Russia being pushed by some Republican senators, indicating a mixed stance on legislative actions [7][8]. Group 4: Ukraine's Response and Cooperation - Ukrainian President Zelensky described his recent conversation with Trump as "very positive," discussing the military needs of Ukraine and the importance of ongoing cooperation [10][11]. - Zelensky also communicated with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, emphasizing the collaborative efforts to enhance support for Ukraine [13][14]. Group 5: U.S. Military Procurement - The U.S. Army plans to significantly increase its procurement of "Patriot" missile systems, raising the target from 3,376 to 13,773 units for the upcoming fiscal year [22]. - This increase in procurement is seen as a strategic move to bolster military capabilities both for Ukraine and U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East [22][23]. Group 6: Military Aid Dynamics - The article suggests that the U.S. aims to expand its arms business through the provision of "paid assistance" to Ukraine, leveraging the situation to secure more funding from allies for military purchases [24][25]. - The need for additional "Patriot" systems is critical for Ukraine's defense capabilities against Russian threats, highlighting the urgency of U.S. support [25].

Group 1: U.S. Policy on Ukraine and Russia - President Trump has made multiple strategic adjustments regarding the Ukraine-Russia issue without achieving substantial progress, shifting from claims of resolving the conflict in 24 hours to lengthy diplomatic negotiations [1] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Russia and threatened to impose severe tariffs if no agreement is reached within 50 days, indicating a potential 100% tariff on Russia and secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil [3][4] - The U.S. has reached an agreement with NATO to supply advanced weaponry to Ukraine, with NATO coordinating the distribution of these weapons to the battlefield [4][5] Group 2: Military Aid and Weapon Procurement - The U.S. Army plans to significantly increase its procurement of the "Patriot" missile system, raising the target from 3,376 to 13,773 units, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing military capabilities [10] - The increase in "Patriot" missile procurement is seen as a move to expand arms sales and leverage financial support from allies, with Ukraine's military urgently needing more advanced defense systems [11] - NATO countries, including Germany, Finland, and Canada, are also expected to contribute to the rearmament of Ukraine, with various types of military aid being discussed [4][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant phone call between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump, indicating the importance of U.S.-Ukraine relations in the context of the ongoing conflict with Russia [1] - The conversation lasted approximately 40 minutes, focusing on the situation in Ukraine and the issue of air defense supplies [1]

Market Focus - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its June interest rate decision, with the "dot plot" reflecting officials' expectations for rate changes being a key focus for market participants [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Israel-Iran dynamics, are influencing market volatility [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has experienced significant fluctuations, with a daily high of 3403 and a low of 3366, indicating a volatile trading environment [2] - The resistance level for gold has shifted from the 3403-3405 range to 3396, with further upward movement expected to face resistance at 3417-3420 and 3430-3433 [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3383, 3375-3373, and 3360, with a potential downward move towards 3340 and 3320 if these levels are breached [4] Silver Market Analysis - Silver continues to rise, breaking through the 37 level, with attention on resistance at 37.5 and 38.2 for potential short positions [5] - Support levels for silver are noted at 35.5 and 34.6, indicating areas for potential long positions [5] Crude Oil Market Analysis - Crude oil is experiencing significant volatility, with recent fluctuations comparable to the past two months, driven by geopolitical factors [6] - Following a substantial drop of over 7 dollars, crude oil has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on resistance levels for potential short positions and support levels at 73.0, 69, and 71 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook despite fluctuations, with potential support levels identified for future buying opportunities [1][5][10]. Market Performance - On June 9, gold opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and closed at $3325.39, marking a daily increase of $13.62 or 0.41% [1]. - The daily trading range was $44.23, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index is experiencing downward pressure due to internal conflicts and geopolitical risks, which has contributed to a rebound in gold prices [3][8]. - The market is currently cautious, with a lack of clear driving factors, and gold's performance is expected to be volatile until it breaks through short-term moving averages [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend despite recent volatility [10]. - The weekly chart shows that while bullish momentum has weakened, key support levels are still intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities on dips [12]. - The daily chart highlights that gold has not broken below key support levels, indicating that any pullbacks could present buying opportunities [14]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence market sentiment, with expectations of rising inflation potentially benefiting gold prices [5][8]. - The overall economic environment, including rising fiscal deficits and geopolitical tensions, continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset [8].