Group 1 - The U.S. White House announced that President Trump signed an executive order to establish a vision for a "America First" space policy, aiming for a return to the Moon by 2028 and the establishment of initial facilities for a permanent lunar outpost by 2030 [12][12] - The order includes directives for deploying nuclear reactors on the Moon and in orbit [12] Group 2 - The chairman of Guoshun Quantum, Lv Pin, passed away on December 18, 2023 [3] - The CEO of Master Kong, Chen Yingrang, announced his retirement effective December 31, 2025, with Wei Hongcheng appointed as the new CEO starting January 1, 2026 [3][16] Group 3 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, the Nasdaq gaining over 310 points (1.38%), and the S&P 500 rising by 0.79% [5] - Tesla shares rose over 3%, while other tech giants like Amazon and Facebook saw increases of over 2% [5] Group 4 - The U.S. Treasury reported that Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities increased from $1.189 trillion in September to $1.2 trillion in October [6] - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 0.38% to $56.15 per barrel [7] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced plans to strengthen capacity regulation in the photovoltaic industry, aiming for a dynamic balance of production capacity by 2026 [9] - The Ministry of Commerce confirmed that some applications for general export licenses for rare earths have been approved [9] Group 6 - The market supervision authority is focusing on addressing "involution-style" competition to promote a healthy market order [10] - The film "Zootopia 2" has become the highest-grossing imported film in China's history, surpassing "Avengers: Endgame" with over 91.06 million viewers [11]

Group 1 - New stock offerings include Qiangyi Co. with an issuance price of 85.09 CNY per share and a subscription limit of 0.75 million shares, Yufan Technology at 22.29 CNY per share with a limit of 0.85 million shares, and Shuangxin Environmental Protection at 6.85 CNY per share with a limit of 60 million shares [2] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that some Chinese exporters have met the basic requirements for applying for general licenses regarding rare earth export controls, with some applications already approved [3] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is proposing a new trading unit framework to enhance market efficiency and reduce investment thresholds, which includes lowering the minimum value for trading units from 2000 HKD to 1000 HKD [4] Group 2 - The State Council issued guidelines to combat illegal activities related to tobacco, aiming to address issues such as counterfeiting and smuggling [4] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission released measures for accountability in investment violations, categorizing asset losses and defining responsibilities based on severity [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that the photovoltaic industry will enter a critical governance phase by 2026, focusing on capacity regulation and management of manufacturing projects [5] Group 3 - The Bank of England announced a reduction in the benchmark interest rate from 4% to 3.75%, marking the lowest rate since February 2023 [6] - Haitian Flavor Industry plans to distribute a special dividend of 3 CNY per share [8] - Sichuan Road and Bridge has been acquired by Zhongyou Insurance, reaching a 5% shareholding [8]

记者：唐诗凝、周圆 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:施歌】 编导：徐中哲 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 30 [2] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03142112 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021738 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - In November - December, the inventory accumulation speed of polysilicon is expected to slow down, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 will still likely exceed 400,000 tons. The downstream photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand, with component tender prices continuously falling, causing delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. Internationally, the high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, and while the loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports, it cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, the emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side to some extent. The market rumor of the relevant authorities' potential policy on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation boosts market confidence, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the price decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 54,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 126,052 lots, up 7,622 lots. The basis of polysilicon from December to January is 70, up 20; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,795 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,350 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is - 2,640 yuan/ton, down 1,265 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts. The average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/W, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece [3]. 3.6 Industry News - This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The activity in the domestic polysilicon market is low this week, with a light overall trading atmosphere. The number of mainstream signing enterprises has decreased to 3 - 4, and the order scale has decreased compared with the previous week. Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon enterprises in production. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 137,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%, 5.4% higher than expected, mainly because some enterprises slightly increased the operating rate within the limited production capacity in the fourth quarter to spread costs. The downstream operating rate remains relatively stable. As the dry season approaches in the southwest region in November, the production cost of polysilicon enterprises will increase, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input, such as partial bases in Sichuan and Yunnan, which have gradually reduced production recently. The demand side is relatively weak, and the demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is sluggish [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost of polysilicon production will increase as the dry season approaches in Southwest China in November, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input and production [2]. - The demand side is relatively weak, with the demand for polysilicon from downstream photovoltaic industry chains declining, component tender prices falling, and concentrated projects being postponed [2]. - Although N-type silicon materials maintain a certain premium ability, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall gross profit margin of the industry is narrowing [2]. - The high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, while the US tariff policy has loosened, driving the growth of energy storage system exports, but it is difficult to completely offset the negative impact of the European market [2]. - The demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America is surging, buffering the decline in the demand side to some extent [2]. - The rumored policy of strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation has boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time are still unclear [2]. - There are rumors of downstream photovoltaic capacity integration, which stimulates the increase of polysilicon prices, but the subsequent weakening of the demand side will still have a counter - effect. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,990 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 635 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 118,430 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 3,498 lots; the basis between December and January contracts is 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,820 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 420 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 145 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,170 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 215 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly output is 402,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, with a day - on - day increase of 10,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,292 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price is 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month increase of 1,016,000 kilowatts; the average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 yuan/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,491,300 units; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 units, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,706,500 units; the monthly average import price is 0.3 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 US dollars/unit [2]. Industry News - On October 28, GCL mentioned in a CCTV interview that 17 enterprises have basically signed, and the establishment of the consortium is expected to be completed within the year [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of ordinary polysilicon materials is approaching the cost line, and the overall gross profit margin of the industry is narrowing. Although N-type silicon materials maintain a certain premium ability due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is weak, and the component tender price continues to decline, leading to the postponement of centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. In the international market, the high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, and although the US tariff policy has loosened, it is difficult to fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, the demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America is surging, which buffers the decline in demand to some extent. The rumored policy of strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation has boosted market confidence, but the specific details and implementation time are still unclear. The upward momentum of polysilicon is expected to weaken further, and the operation suggestion is to lay out long positions at low prices [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 54,500 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2,195 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 105,877 lots, with a month-on-month increase of 24,322 lots; the basis of polysilicon from December to January is 40 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,535 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2,150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon is 52,980 yuan/ton, with no change; the weekly average price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.02 US dollars/kg; the basis of polysilicon is 675 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 1,545 yuan/ton [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,965 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 45 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no change; the export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,409.29 tons; the import volume of industrial silicon is 1,939.85 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons [3]. - **Industrial Situation**: The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 286 tons; the weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 270 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The monthly output of solar cells is 6.9857 million kilowatts, with a month-on-month increase of 347,500 kilowatts; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a month-on-month increase of 0.01 RMB/W; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,733,700 pieces, with a month-on-month decrease of 6,706,500 pieces; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, with a month-on-month increase of 0.06 US dollars/piece; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, with no change [3]. b) Industry News - Affected by recent policy guidance and the adjustment of electricity prices during the wet and dry seasons, some polysilicon production bases in the southwest region have gradually reduced raw material input, and are expected to achieve full production suspension from the end of October to early November, involving an annual production capacity of about 320,000 tons. As November approaches, the production cost of polysilicon enterprises in the southwest region will rise due to the dry season, and some enterprises have begun to reduce raw material input, resulting in a reduction in production. The demand side is relatively weak, and the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is sluggish [3]. c) Key Points of Attention - Investors need to closely monitor the actual progress of the policy at the end of October and the actual implementation of production cuts in the southwest region [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 23rd, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.41%. The position decreased by 20,359 lots to 76,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 145 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,760 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.05%. The position decreased by 3,609 lots to 45,407 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,740 yuan/ton. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, while the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The maintenance of the organic silicon industry and the limited supply of aluminum alloys have comprehensively suppressed the market. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary volume scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short-selling operations should be carried out at high levels for the far-month contracts. The state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity, and the news of the storage platform has boosted market sentiment. The policy expectation for the far-month contracts still provides support. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November means that there is still room for the near-month contracts to trade at a discount. Continuous attention should be paid to the latest developments and the inventory-consumption trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,485 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 8,705 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 220 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 235 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 367 to 48,371, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,715 to 241,855 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 445,500 tons [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,310 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 50,760 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium widened from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,740 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 80 to 9,220, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 276,600 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 264,000 tons [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market decreased from 11,300 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18] - **Inventory**: The charts show the futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][22] - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][34] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [36][37]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report On October 22, industrial silicon fluctuated with a slight upward trend, while polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The overhaul of silicone and the limited supply of aluminum alloy comprehensively suppress the market, with strong downward driving forces in the fundamentals. A photovoltaic conference has been held in Beijing for several days, and there are reports that the state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity. The market is waiting for the conference results, and short - term policy expectations provide strong bottom support. However, the continuous increase in production scheduling and poor downstream acceptance have not resolved the high - pressure inventory situation. Currently, the market is full of news about the photovoltaic conference and the progress of stockpiling, and speculative sentiment has returned. The market fluctuates strongly, so it is recommended to enter the market cautiously. Attention should be paid to the expectation adjustment after the policy is implemented and the actual situation of production reduction and sales control in the silicon material sector [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research View - On October 22, the main contract of industrial silicon 2511 closed at 8,485 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06% and a reduction of 10,964 lots in positions to 96,600 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 235 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract of polysilicon 2511 closed at 50,310 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.55% and a reduction of 3,221 lots in positions to 49,016 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 150 yuan/ton to 8,615 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: Most prices remained stable, with only a few showing changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon in some regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 113 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 835 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 3,000 tons [3]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement price: The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 1,780 yuan/ton to 50,860 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot price: The prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 1,640 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 14,000 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 10,000 tons [3]. Organic Silicon - Spot price: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,300 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts show the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][22]. 3.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [26][28][34]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research, focusing on different fields such as precious metals, aluminum - silicon, and lithium - nickel [36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.94%, while polysilicon prices rose by 6.89%. The industrial silicon futures market declined due to weak downstream demand despite cost - driven production cuts in the dry season. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity boosted polysilicon prices [4]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, production costs are rising in Sichuan and Yunnan during the transition to the dry season, leading to production cuts. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia are on standby, and some Xinjiang factories are actively producing. On the demand side, the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a negative overall demand for industrial silicon, and high inventory still pressures price [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply is large with inventory accumulation, and demand is weak in the domestic photovoltaic industry. Although emerging markets show increasing demand, high inventory may pressure prices downward if supply continues to rise [4]. - Operationally, the main contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss range of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon will fluctuate in the short - term, ranging from 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures declined, and polysilicon futures rose. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity was the key factor for the rise in polysilicon prices [4]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply - side production cuts are occurring in some regions due to cost increases, while some are ready to start production. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and high inventory remains a problem. For polysilicon, supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and emerging markets buffer the decline [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded in the range of 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon should be traded in the range of 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss of 46000 - 55000 [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon futures and spot both declined, and the basis decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 745 yuan/ton. The production and capacity utilization rate increased. As of October 9, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 8.58 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.09% [4][12][19]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the price of polysilicon futures and spot was flat, and the basis weakened. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 52.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 200 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 175 yuan/g [16]. 3. Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon remained stable, but the electricity price increased near the dry season, leading to rising costs. From October 10 to 16, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest and northwest was stable at 0.30 yuan/kWh, but it is expected to rise [21][24]. - **Industrial Silicon Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50291 lots, a decrease of 483 lots from the previous week [28]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the output and operating rate of organic silicon decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the weekly output was 4.56 tons, a decrease of 1.73%, and the operating rate was 69.67%, a decrease of 1.21%. The spot price, cost, and profit increased. The spot price of organic silicon DMC was 11200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week, the profit was - 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton, and the cost was 11740 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [35][39]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy remained flat, and the inventory continued to decline. As of October 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the inventory was 7.44 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [41][46]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained flat. As of October 16, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.48 yuan/piece, and the battery cell price was 0.31 yuan/watt, both unchanged from last week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be slightly flat [48][50]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: This week, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory increased. As of October 16, 2025, the profit was 10980 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40780 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 27.5 tons [59].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of polysilicon has seen an unexpected increase in production scheduling in October due to the resumption of production in Qinghai and the ramping - up of new capacities in other regions. The demand side may see a reduction in silicon wafer production scheduling in October due to the fourth - quarter quota limit. The inventory side shows an accumulation of factory and warehouse - receipt inventories. The two ministries have emphasized not to bid below cost, strengthening the effectiveness of cost support. A policy framework of "capacity reduction + sales at no less than cost price" for polysilicon has basically taken shape, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals of polysilicon may improve. However, due to the long - term non - fulfillment of the "anti - involution" measure, market sentiment has faded, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 52,575 with a 3.36% increase; PS2510 closed at 55,000 with a 3.55% increase; PS2512 closed at 55,050 with a 3.18% increase; PS2601 closed at 54,975 with a 3.18% increase [1] Price Difference - The price difference between PS2510 - PS2511 is - 20 with a change of 90; the price difference between PS2511 - PS2512 is 15 with a change of - 2475; the price difference between PS2512 - PS2601 is 75 with no change [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense polysilicon is 51.25 with no change; the average price of N - type mixed - material polysilicon is 50.25 with no change [1][2] Basis - The basis of N - type dense material - PS2511 is - 1325 with a change of - 1710; the basis of N - type mixed - material polysilicon - PS2511 is - 2325 with a change of - 1710 [2] Inventory - The polysilicon inventory (weekly, in ten thousand tons) is 25.3 with an increase of 1.3; the silicon wafer inventory (weekly, in GW) is 17.31 with an increase of 0.53; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, in tons) is 8130 with an increase of 80 [2] Market News - On October 14, there was market news that relevant authorities might issue a document to strengthen photovoltaic capacity regulation. An industry insider close to the authorities said the document might be released soon, including requirements for limiting the capacity utilization rate of the entire industrial chain and banning new capacity to achieve supply - demand balance [2]