机构：天风证券 多元赛道加码 滔搏重点深化跑步和户外细分赛道的品牌布局，已接连开启与跑步品牌norda、soar、Ciele 和户外品牌 Norr na 的合作，作为这些品牌在中国大陆市场的独家运营合作伙伴，负责品牌全链路运营工作，通过 搭建社交媒体矩阵、举办大型赛事、圈层活动等吸引核心用户，同时以线上官方旗舰店、线下快闪店、 入驻买手店等多样化形式与中国消费者见面；此外，滔搏在上海开设第一家跑步集合店ektos，以"跑者 需求"为核心重构传统线下零售语言，强调融入社区，融入跑者的生活，来增加用户粘性。 精细化用户运营 滔搏坚持以消费者为核心，围绕"需求匹配-场景渗透-体验价值"三大方向构建多元化用户价值体系，累 计用户规模达8900 万，同时推动多平台用户信息打通与整合，完善全域用户画像，确保用户在全域场 景下享受一致权益体验。存量运营方面，滔搏升级焕新会员等级体系，将原创会员IP"滔小侠"与日常场 景深度绑定，针对高频消费用户推出省钱季卡；此外，为深化与年轻消费者的情感共鸣，公司多维度激 活圈层连接，举办多样化的IP 联名营销活动和线下社群体验活动。 维持盈利预测，维持"增持"评级 我们维持盈利预测，预计 ...

四季度以来零售有所走弱，全年指引达成有一定挑战。12 月份进入四季度，终端需求有所转弱，零售 挑战下最终业绩可能和指引有一定偏差（指引利润额持平），但幅度可控，目前仍在朝该方向努力，上 半年人员优化、门店调整等在下半年费用节省上会陆续体现。 库存保持健康，折扣率同比趋稳。至三季度末库存总额继续下降，总量合理可控，库存周转效率较好。 公司动态把握新旧货品销售节奏，将维持库存相对健康作为第一要务。折扣方面，直营折扣率同比仍有 加深，主要因折扣率更低的线上业务销售占提升导致，但折扣率同比加深幅度比上半财年收窄，至12 月在低基数下折扣同比基本持平。 核心品牌强化产品创新、零售能力建设，加大库存回收力度。一方面NIKE 将与核心零售商携手优化线 上市场管理，进行全局化布局，努力统一价格管理，破解当前行业价格混乱痛点。另一方面加大对经销 商的库存支持力度，对26 年新品订货相对谨慎，避免渠道累库，并加大经销渠道的旧货召回力度，在 其公司层面进行一次性计提，不再通过自有渠道或奥莱流回市场，将对行业库存产生积极影响。产品方 面，NIKE 核心战略依然是"回归专业运动"，旨在扭转此前在中国市场一定程度上的"运动休闲化"品牌 ...

上 市 公 司 商业贸易 2025 年 12 月 23 日 滔搏 (06110) ——三季度基本符合预期，经营指标健康，需求仍待回暖 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -6% 14% 34% 54% 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/23 04/23 05/23 06/23 07/23 08/23 09/23 10/23 11/23 HSCEI 滔搏 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 联系人 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 12 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.12 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8939.68 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 4.13/2.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 193.48 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,201. ...

Core Insights - The increasing interest of Southeast Asian companies in China's AI applications and digital transformation experiences is evident, as demonstrated by a Singapore retail company's executive team visiting China to discuss retail digitalization solutions with Duodian Shuzhi [1][3] Group 1: International Expansion Strategy - Duodian Shuzhi, a leading provider of retail digitalization solutions in China, is focusing on international markets as a key strategic pivot, with overseas sales currently accounting for 8% and a target of over 30% in the next three years [3] - The company's international strategy is based on a deep understanding of overseas market demands and a precise match with its core capabilities, summarized in three dimensions: foundational services, AI capabilities, and ecosystem collaboration [4] Group 2: AI Capabilities and Market Demand - AI capabilities are becoming the core competitive advantage for Duodian Shuzhi in international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where there is a high recognition of China's advancements in AI applications [5] - The company is offering mature AI modules such as AI product selection, AI loss prevention, and AI pricing to address common industry challenges, with AI pricing improving decision-making efficiency by over 30% compared to traditional methods [5] Group 3: Local Adaptation and Trust Building - Duodian Shuzhi is building a competitive barrier in the overseas retail digitalization market through a combination of focus on the retail sector, benchmark experiences, and local adaptation [7] - The company emphasizes the importance of localizing its products to address market differences, particularly in payment methods, language support, and compliance with local regulations [8] - To overcome trust issues, Duodian Shuzhi employs a strategy of "on-site verification and local benchmarks," inviting overseas clients to visit successful domestic cases and establishing local success stories in Southeast Asia [9] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Goals - The company aims to establish at least one benchmark client in each Southeast Asian country in the short term, with a long-term goal of promoting China's retail digitalization experience to more countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [9] - Duodian Shuzhi's "Retail Intelligent Body" strategy, which integrates cloud, SaaS, and AI solutions, is expected to address the pain points of overseas retail enterprises, enhancing decision-making efficiency and data utilization [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.844 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.74%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 537 million yuan, a decline of 28.90% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 0.20 yuan [3][6]. - The company has seen a slight decrease in inventory, and profit growth was achieved in Q3. The gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first three quarters were 45.12% and 5.38%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.35 and -2.63 percentage points [6][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its online marketing and opening new offline stores, which has led to an increase in sales expense ratio, impacting net profit margins [6][3]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company had a total inventory of 4.142 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.64% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days increasing by 10.67 days to 190.50 days [6][3]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.695 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.31%, and a net profit of 212 million yuan, up 4.55% year-on-year [6][3]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store count, with a total of 8,236 stores as of the first half of the year, an increase of 96 stores compared to the same period last year [6][8]. Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its EPS forecast for 2025 to 0.36 yuan, maintaining the EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 at 0.42 and 0.45 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE valuation for 2025 is set at 15.00 times, which is below the average of comparable companies [10][6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities expresses optimism about the operational resilience and long-term cash returns of Tabo (06110), highlighting a narrowing decline in retail sales and stable gross margins despite a challenging retail environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, Tabo's revenue decreased by 5.8% year-on-year to 12.3 billion, with retail channel revenue at 10.6 billion (down 3.0%) and wholesale channel revenue at 1.62 billion (down 20.3%) [1] - The main brands, Nike and Adidas, generated 10.81 billion in revenue, down 4.8%, while other brands saw a 12.2% decline to 1.41 billion [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 9.8% to 790 million, with a slight decrease in gross margin to 41.0% and a net profit margin of 6.4% [1] Group 2: Cash Flow and Dividends - Operating cash flow decreased by 48.2% year-on-year to 1.35 billion, with a net cash ratio of 1.7 [1] - The interim dividend payout ratio was 102.2%, with a dividend of 0.13 per share [1] Group 3: Store and Membership Strategy - As of August 2025, the number of direct-operated stores decreased by 1,125 to 4,688 (down 19.4%), while total sales area declined by 14.1% [2] - The cumulative user base reached 89.1 million, with membership contributing 92.9% of sales, and high-value members accounting for nearly 35% of sales [2] Group 4: Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company is strategically enhancing its presence in the running and outdoor segments, partnering with high-end brands and opening specialized stores [2] - Online retail business experienced double-digit growth, with significant contributions from content e-commerce and private domain operations [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese sports footwear and apparel industry is undergoing a significant "value reconstruction," shifting consumer decision-making from "cost-performance" to "emotional value" [1] - Retailers are facing structural differentiation, requiring them to find ways to achieve quality growth amid uncertainty [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Tmall, the largest domestic sports retail operator, reported revenue of 12.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 790 million yuan for the period ending August 31, 2025 [1] - The company has over 20 cooperative brands and a user base exceeding 89 million, indicating a strong market presence [1] Group 2: Retail Strategy - The retail strategy has shifted from "scale expansion" to "value deepening," redefining the role of stores as "super interfaces" that drive omnichannel traffic [2] - Tmall employs a "preferred + optimized" strategy for store adjustments, aiming to enhance the multi-dimensional value of stores [2] Group 3: Digital and Omnichannel Integration - Tmall operates over 800 Douyin and WeChat video accounts, with more than 3,600 mini-program stores and over 3,700 instant retail stores, achieving double-digit growth in online sales [3] - The company has established a "1 (offline store) + N (online multi-scenario)" operational model to enhance online and offline channel synergy [2] Group 4: Brand Collaboration - Tmall is expanding its brand collaboration ecosystem by exclusively operating niche brands like norda™, soar, Ciele, and Norrøna, adapting to market segmentation and consumer upgrades [4][5] - The company aims to build long-term, trust-based strategic partnerships with core brand partners to respond to market changes effectively [4] Group 5: User Value and Membership - Approximately 92.9% of Tmall's sales come from members, with high-value members contributing 35% of membership sales despite being a small percentage of the total [7] - The company focuses on deepening user value through a refined operational system that includes demand matching, scenario penetration, and experience value [7] Group 6: Digital Empowerment - Tmall's digital transformation focuses on creating a "smart retail ecosystem" through enhanced inventory sharing, member value extraction, and optimized marketing strategies [8] - The company is investing in AI technology for supply chain efficiency, marketing conversion, and operational decision-making [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.3 billion and a net profit of 790 million for the first half of the fiscal year, with cash and cash equivalents reaching 2.54 billion [1] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - The company implements a "1+N" model in the omnichannel retail sector, centering around offline stores while integrating content e-commerce and private domain operations [1] - Online business achieved double-digit growth year-on-year, with over 800 Douyin and WeChat video accounts and more than 3,600 mini-program stores, accumulating over 89 million users [1] Group 2: Digital Transformation and Brand Expansion - The company is advancing its digital transformation, optimizing product management and circulation efficiency around integrated omnichannel strategies [1] - New brand partnerships include exclusive operations for Norwegian outdoor brand Norrøna and running brands soar and Ciele in China, alongside the introduction of the running multi-brand store brand ektos [1] Group 3: Customer Engagement and Sales Performance - Membership sales accounted for 92.9% of total retail sales from offline and mini-programs, with repeat members contributing 60% of membership consumption, highlighting high user stickiness [1] - The company plans to continue focusing on omnichannel retail, user operations, and business innovation while deepening digital empowerment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 12.3 billion yuan for FY25/26 H1, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, and a net profit of 790 million yuan, down 9.7% year-on-year, while proposing an interim dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, with a payout ratio increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 102.2% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The main brands (Nike + Adidas) and other brands (PUMA + Converse + VF, etc.) saw revenue declines of 4.8% and 12.2%, respectively, with total revenues of 10.81 billion yuan and 1.41 billion yuan, accounting for 87.9% and 11.5% of total revenue [1] - Retail and wholesale businesses experienced declines of 3.0% and 20.3%, with revenues of 10.60 billion yuan and 1.62 billion yuan, while online retail achieved double-digit growth [2] Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0%, primarily due to increased discounts from a higher proportion of online sales, although retail sales and brand support partially offset this impact [2] - The end-of-period inventory decreased by 4.7% to 5.83 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days increasing by 1.7 days to 150 days [2] - Net cash flow from operating activities fell by 48.2% to 1.36 billion yuan, influenced by changes in accounts receivable and payable [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its competitive edge through a comprehensive retail strategy and expanding its presence in running and outdoor segments, adding new partner brands and opening a multifunctional running community store in Shanghai [3] - The company aims to improve profitability and maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expectations for profit stability in FY26 and improved margins in the long term [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2026-27 down by 20% and 23% to 1.30 billion yuan and 1.49 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a forecast of 1.70 billion yuan for FY28 [3] - The target price is set at 4.0 HKD, reflecting a PE ratio of 15.2x for FY27, maintaining a "buy" rating due to the company's leading position in comprehensive retail and attractive dividend yield [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its FY26 interim results, which met expectations, and continued its high dividend policy, emphasizing shareholder returns Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of FY26 decreased by 6% year-on-year to 12.3 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 10% to 790 million yuan, aligning with expectations [1] - The company proposed an interim dividend of 0.13 yuan per share, resulting in a high payout ratio of 102% [1] Brand Performance - Revenue from the main brand declined by 5% to 10.81 billion yuan, with the decline rate improving from 6% in FY25, accounting for 88% of total revenue [1] - Other brands saw a 12% drop in revenue to 1.41 billion yuan, representing 12% of total revenue, while joint venture revenue fell by 15% to 60 million yuan [1] Channel and Operational Efficiency - Direct sales revenue decreased by 3% to 10.6 billion yuan, making up 86% of total revenue, with a reduction of 332 stores to 4,688 [2] - The company is leveraging multi-channel strategies, including Douyin, mini-programs, and instant retail, resulting in double-digit growth in online retail [2] - Wholesale revenue dropped by 20% to 1.6 billion yuan, indicating ongoing adjustments [2] Cost Management - Gross margin remained stable, slightly decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 41.0%, benefiting from brand partnerships and an increased share of retail business [2] - Sales and management expenses decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, with the expense ratio slightly increasing by 0.1 percentage points [3] - The net profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.4% [3] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory decreased to 5.8 billion yuan from 6 billion yuan at the beginning of the period, with inventory turnover days at 150 [4] - Operating cash flow was 1.35 billion yuan, down 48% year-on-year, primarily due to timing differences in accounts receivable related to seasonal sales [4] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to high-quality growth in the sports apparel retail sector, focusing on comprehensive retail strategies and brand expansion [4] - Collaboration with major brands like NIKE and Adidas continues to enhance retail capabilities and channel optimization [4] - Profit forecasts for FY26-28 are set at 1.29 billion, 1.42 billion, and 1.55 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]