全球货币秩序重构

Search documents
(经济观察)关税扰动难改A股中长期向上趋势
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-10-15 08:48
(经济观察)关税扰动难改A股中长期向上趋势 中新社北京10月15日电 (记者 陈康亮)近期受美国宣布对华加征关税等阴霾影响,中国A股波动加剧。在 经历前期的调整后,A股15日触底反弹,上证指数涨逾1%,重新站上3900点。此间分析人士认为,关 税扰动难以改变A股中长期向上趋势。 方奕进一步指出,与4月冲击不同,当下贸易风险的边界相对清晰,政策端持续释放稳定资本市场的积 极信号,因此外部冲击是扰动,不会终结市场趋势。投资者应看到中国股市"转型牛"内在确定性的趋势 ——中国转型加快、无风险收益下行与资本市场改革,投资者寻找优质资产的需求旺盛。因此,外部冲 突所造成的资产下跌反而是增持中国资产的良机。 中金公司分析师李求索表示,从中期角度看,全球货币秩序加速重构,美元资产的安全性下降,人民币 资产将继续获得重估,这意味着市场上行根基并未动摇,叠加"十五五"相关政策规划出台在即、中国科 技行业基本面向好趋势未改、A股整体估值区间相对合理等因素,A股本轮行情可能更具备"长期""稳 进"条件,中国资产重估仍在延续。(完) 来源:中国新闻网 关于美方宣布从11月起对中国商品加征100%关税会否冲击中国A股,袁方认为,影响有 ...
午评:创业板指跌3% 稀土永磁板块逆势爆发
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 05:45
新华财经北京10月13日电(王媛媛)A股三大指数集体下跌,创业板指跌3%。截至午间收盘,沪指报 3846.25点,跌1.30%,成交7271亿元;深证成指报13013.34点,2.56%,成交8509亿元;创业板指报 3019.81点,跌3.00%,成交3918亿元。沪深两市半日成交额1.58万亿元,较上个交易日缩量659亿元。 板块方面,稀土永磁、小金属、华为欧拉、贵金属、EDA概念、转基因、氦气概念位于涨幅榜前列, 机器人执行器、减速器、AIPC、3D摄像头、人形机器人、混合现实、智能电视、消费电子跌幅居前。 中金公司:突发事件对全球主要资产扰动明显,风波未平仍需关注后续进展。短期冲击不改中期趋势, 中国资产重估仍在延续。整体看,基于目前信息初步判断,本轮事件对A股的冲击预计将弱于4月初时 期:一方面,4月初市场计入了剧烈、快速调整预期;另一方面,中国在当时展现出的快速、有效应 对,有望降低投资者对后续类似冲击的担忧。短期看,此次突发事件或对风险偏好带来影响,加大或延 长8月底以来的市场调整幅度和持续时间。但从中期角度,全球货币秩序加速重构,美元资产的安全性 下降,人民币资产将继续获得重估,这意味着市场上 ...
中金:短期冲击不改中期趋势 中国资产重估仍在延续
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-13 00:26
人民财讯10月13日电,中金公司(601995)研报称,突发事件对全球主要资产扰动明显,风波未平仍需 关注后续进展。短期冲击不改中期趋势,中国资产重估仍在延续。整体看,基于目前信息初步判断,本 轮事件对A股的冲击预计将弱于4月初时期:一方面,当时4月初市场计入了剧烈、快速调整预期;另一 方面,中国在当时展现出的快速、有效应对,有望降低投资者对后续类似冲击的担忧。短期看,此次突 发事件或对风险偏好带来影响,加大或延长8月底以来的市场调整幅度和持续时间。但从中期角度,全 球货币秩序加速重构,美元资产的安全性下降,人民币资产将继续获得重估,这意味着市场上行根基并 未动摇,叠加"十五五"等政策规划出台在即、科技等行业基本面向好趋势未改、A股整体估值区间相对 合理等因素,本轮行情可能更具备"长期"、"稳进"条件,中国资产重估仍在延续。若后续短期A股因非 理性情绪出现超调,反而提供较好再度配置A股时点。 ...
中金:中美关税“再升级” 短期冲击不改中期趋势
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 00:15
(文章来源:第一财经) 中金公司指出,11月重要节点前,中美经贸博弈再度升级。整体看,基于目前信息初步判断,本轮事件 对A股的冲击预计将弱于4月初时期:一方面,当时4月初市场计入了剧烈、快速调整预期;另一方面, 中国在当时展现出的快速、有效应对,有望降低投资者对后续类似冲击的担忧。短期看,此次突发事件 或对风险偏好带来影响,加大或延长8月底以来的市场调整幅度和持续时间。但从中期角度,全球货币 秩序加速重构,美元资产的安全性下降,人民币资产将继续获得重估,这意味着市场上行根基并未动 摇,叠加"十五五"等政策规划出台在即、科技等行业基本面向好趋势未改、A股整体估值区间相对合理 等因素,本轮行情可能更具备"长期"、"稳进"条件,中国资产重估仍在延续。若后续短期A股因非理性 情绪出现超调,反而提供较好再度配置A股时点。 ...
中国9月金融数据将出炉;OpenAI举办开发者大会丨一周前瞻
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-10-06 01:40
Group 1 - China's financial data and foreign reserves for September will be disclosed this week, along with significant events such as the OpenAI annual developer conference and central bank leaders' speeches [1][2] - The week will see the release of various economic indicators, including Thailand's PPI and CPI, and the US trade balance figures [2][3] - Over 400 billion yuan in market value of restricted stocks will be unlocked this week, with a total of 20 companies releasing 1.187 billion shares valued at 446.85 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [3][4] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance are seeking public opinion on the draft regulations for whistleblower rewards related to securities and futures violations, increasing the reward conditions significantly [5][6] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, completing the annual target of 300 billion yuan [7] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is accelerating the development of guidelines for floating income health insurance to enhance the quality of health insurance products [8] Group 3 - The US Senate has rejected a bipartisan temporary funding bill, leading to a continued government shutdown, marking the first such event in seven years [9] - The A-share market saw record monthly trading volume in September, with a total turnover of approximately 53.2 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity [10] - The market is expected to shift from a technology-led rally to a more balanced allocation strategy, with a focus on sectors like consumer electronics, automotive, and healthcare [17][18]
中金公司李求索:A股上行趋势仍将延续 三大主线投资机遇值得重视
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-22 23:54
Market Overview - The A-share market has shown strong resilience this year, with significant increases in trading activity and margin financing balances, leading to a robust upward trend [1][2] - As of September 22, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 23.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 40.51%, and the ChiNext Index by 71.97% since April 8 [1] Economic and Performance Drivers - The market's strength is supported by a resilient macroeconomic environment, positive corporate earnings, attractive global valuations, and improved liquidity [2] - China's economy has demonstrated stability despite internal adjustments and external trade challenges, with manufacturing resilience being a key contributor [2] - A-share companies are expected to achieve approximately 3% growth in earnings for the year [2] Valuation and Investor Sentiment - A-share valuations remain attractive compared to global markets, with the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices still at relatively low levels [2] - Continuous policy support for economic growth and improving investor sentiment are crucial for maintaining market stability and liquidity [2][4] Capital Flow and Margin Financing - The margin financing balance has reached nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, indicating a healthier market structure compared to previous years [4] - The current margin financing balance represents about 2.4% of the A-share market's circulating value, which is close to historical averages [4] - Recent trends show a more diversified allocation of margin financing towards emerging industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and high-end manufacturing [5] Sector Performance and Investment Focus - The market has experienced diverse sector rotations, with growth sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing leading the way [7] - Future investment focus should be on industries with solid fundamentals, such as telecommunications, semiconductors, and defense [8] - The financial sector, particularly insurance and brokerage firms, is expected to benefit from improved market sentiment [7][8]
中金公司李求索: A股上行趋势仍将延续 三大主线投资机遇值得重视
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-22 20:26
今年以来,A股交投活跃,两融余额持续增加,市场迎来一轮稳健上涨。数据显示,4月8日以来,截至 9月22日收盘,上证指数累计上涨23.64%,深证成指累计上涨40.51%,创业板指累计上涨71.97%。 中金公司(601995)研究部国内策略首席分析师李求索在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示,当前市场在 宏观经济韧性强、企业盈利向好、全球估值吸引力提升及流动性改善支撑下,中长期向好趋势已然确 立。值得关注的是,市场资金结构显著优化,两融余额虽创历史新高但其健康度远胜往昔,同时外资回 流与国内投资者信心形成正向循环。从中长期看,可聚焦科技创新、出海优势及优质红利三大主线。 市场中长期韧性凸显 "今年4月初为A股市场阶段性底部,可能为全年指数低点,回顾来看也是今年难得的买点。今年A股呈 现较强韧性,全年来看上行机会大,下行风险小。"李求索在谈及今年以来市场表现时表示,A股市场 表现强势主要来自四个方面的支撑: 首先,在宏观环境上,年初以来全球宏观形势发生诸多变化,我国经济在内部结构调整与外部贸易摩擦 的双重挑战下韧性凸显,经济数据表现相对稳健,制造业韧性成为重要贡献点,AI、创新药等领域突 破令全球重新认识中国的创新能 ...
A股上行趋势仍将延续三大主线投资机遇值得重视
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-09-22 20:15
Market Performance - A-shares have shown strong resilience in 2023, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 23.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 40.51%, and the ChiNext Index up 71.97% since April 8 [1] - The market's upward trend is supported by strong macroeconomic resilience, improving corporate earnings, attractive global valuations, and enhanced liquidity [1][2] Investment Drivers - The restructuring of the global monetary order is identified as a key driver for the future rise of the A-share market, with Chinese assets expected to benefit from this process [2] - A-share valuations remain reasonable, and corporate earnings are anticipated to continue improving, maintaining the upward trend of the market [2] Fund Flow and Market Structure - The margin trading balance has increased significantly, reaching nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, with a lower proportion of margin trading relative to the total market capitalization compared to 2015 [2][3] - The current market structure shows a more diversified holding pattern, favoring emerging industries and growth styles, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, electronics, and high-end manufacturing [3] Sector Rotation and Investment Focus - The A-share market has exhibited diverse sector rotation since mid-2023, with growth sectors leading the market rally, particularly in AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing [4] - Future investment focus should be on industries with solid fundamentals, such as communication equipment, semiconductors, and defense, as well as sectors benefiting from increased domestic production rates [4]
全网热议!美联储降息后A股怎么走?专家:三大资产即将爆发!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 10:14
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25% marks the first rate cut since 2025, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy [1] - Following the announcement, there was a notable reaction in the markets, with U.S. indices initially rising before experiencing a sharp decline [1] - The market's expectation for a rate cut was high, with over 90% probability indicated by CME Fedwatch data [1] Group 2 - The rate cut signals a potential shift in global capital flows and asset revaluation, suggesting a broader trend of capital migration [2] - Chinese assets are becoming a preferred choice for international capital due to valuation advantages and supportive policies [3] - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar is anticipated, with historical data showing an average decline of 5% to 8% during Fed rate cut cycles [6] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market has shown strong performance, with notable gains in companies like Baidu, NIO, and Pinduoduo following the Fed's announcement [5] - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound in margin trading balances, with foreign capital inflows exceeding 30 billion [7] - The Chinese government is implementing consumption stimulus measures, including a 3.3 billion yuan subsidy, to boost domestic demand [6][9] Group 4 - The service sector is becoming increasingly significant in China's consumption landscape, contributing 63% to consumer growth [6] - The Ministry of Commerce is launching pilot projects in 50 cities to explore new consumption models, which may further stimulate domestic demand [8][9] - Gold, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks are identified as three key pillars of Chinese assets that are poised for significant opportunities in the global capital rebalancing process [10]
中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略、电力电气设备
中金点睛· 2025-09-13 01:03
Strategy - The current market conditions suggest that while A-shares have performed strongly since July, Hong Kong stocks appear stagnant, with the Hang Seng Index hovering around 25,000. Investors are concerned about the rapid rise of A-shares and are looking for opportunities in Hong Kong stocks, but fear underperformance. Increased market volatility and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve add to this uncertainty. It is recommended to focus on sectors with high profitability certainty and opportunities reflecting U.S.-China dynamics, such as pharmaceuticals, technology hardware, non-bank financials, and consumer electronics [5][7][9]. Economic Indicators - In August, the U.S. CPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations. Core goods prices, driven by automobiles, saw a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, the highest since May 2023, indicating a shift from deflation to inflation in this sector. The impact of tariffs on prices outside of automobiles has been minimal, suggesting challenges in passing on costs. Service inflation has stabilized, with notable rebounds in airline and hotel prices [7][9]. Market Trends - Since the "924" period last year, the Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a recovery phase, with growth and non-bank sectors showing positive momentum. Although short-term volatility risks remain, the medium-term upward trend of the index is expected to continue. The key to determining the end of this market cycle lies in whether the underlying logic remains intact. If it does, any pullback could present a buying opportunity. The ongoing restructuring of the global monetary order and the strengthening of China's innovation and supply chain advantages suggest further revaluation potential for Chinese assets [9]. Industry Insights - The photovoltaic industry has faced significant operational pressures due to overcapacity and debt, despite some relief from price stabilization efforts in the first half of the year. The necessity for "anti-involution" remains critical, with ongoing efforts from various stakeholders to clarify strategies for addressing these challenges. While the overall environment remains challenging, there is optimism regarding the continued progress of anti-involution measures and the sector's resilience [11].