近日，工业和信息化部等7部门联合印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（下称 《方案》）。《方案》明确了行业"稳总量、优结构"的转型方向，成为化工市场关注的焦点。 投资者关心的是，政策对化工品价格影响几何？哪些品种值得重点布局？交易层面又该如何应对？对 此，受访人士普遍认为，这份《方案》的核心逻辑在于不搞"一刀切"去产能，而是通过"控新增、改存 量、扶高端"优化供给。从时间维度来看，政策对化工品价格的作用呈现明显分层。 《方案》明确"不涉及现有化工产能去化"，产能优化重点指向未来新项目，而非当前装置。例如，对炼 油、乙烯、PX 等传统领域，仅要求"严控新增产能、科学调控投放节奏"，对现有老旧装置则以"改造升 级"为主，不强制淘汰。"这意味着短期内行业供给端不会出现大幅收缩，而需求端仍受传统行业复苏节 奏影响，缺乏显著增长点。"新湖期货化工研发总监施潇涵向期货日报记者表示。 施潇涵认为，当前化工市场的核心矛盾仍是 "产能投放量大但需求疲软"，即便政策出台，近端基本面 仍难有实质改善。"近年来，化工产业链利润总体微薄，各环节在有限利润空间内相互挤压，即便部分 品种短期基本面好转，市场也会因对后 ...

近日，工业和信息化部等7部门联合印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》(下称《方 案》)。《方案》明确了行业"稳总量、优结构"的转型方向，成为化工市场关注的焦点。 投资者关心的是，政策对化工品价格影响几何？哪些品种值得重点布局？交易层面又该如何应对？对 此，受访人士普遍认为，这份《方案》的核心逻辑在于不搞"一刀切"去产能，而是通过"控新增、改存 量、扶高端"优化供给。从时间维度来看，政策对化工品价格的作用呈现明显分层。 《方案》明确"不涉及现有化工产能去化"，产能优化重点指向未来新项目，而非当前装置。例如，对炼 油、乙烯、PX等传统领域，仅要求"严控新增产能、科学调控投放节奏"，对现有老旧装置则以"改造升 级"为主，不强制淘汰。"这意味着短期内行业供给端不会出现大幅收缩，而需求端仍受传统行业复苏节 奏影响，缺乏显著增长点。"新湖期货化工研发总监施潇涵向期货日报记者表示。 施潇涵认为，当前化工市场的核心矛盾仍是"产能投放量大但需求疲软"，即便政策出台，近端基本面仍 难有实质改善。"近年来，化工产业链利润总体微薄，各环节在有限利润空间内相互挤压，即便部分品 种短期基本面好转，市场也会因对后续产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is set to experience an average annual growth of over 5% in value added from 2025 to 2026, as outlined in the recently released "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by multiple government departments [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Responses - The petrochemical industry faces intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, slowing domestic demand growth, and increased external uncertainties [3]. - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and aims to manage the pace of new capacity for ethylene and paraxylene, while supporting the renovation of outdated facilities and the "reduce oil and increase chemicals" initiative [3][4]. Group 2: Focus on High-End Supply - There is a notable shortage in high-end chemical new materials and fine chemicals, necessitating improvements in the supply of key products and raw materials [4][5]. - The plan identifies electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, and specialty rubbers as key areas for technological innovation and effective supply enhancement [5]. Group 3: Emerging Market Opportunities - The demand for materials in emerging fields is robust, with applications in sectors such as electric vehicle battery materials, carbon fiber composites, and specialty engineering plastics [5][6]. - PEEK, a high-performance polymer, is highlighted for its potential to replace metals in various applications, including humanoid robots, due to its superior strength-to-weight ratio and durability [6]. Group 4: Industry Structural Optimization - Recent high-level meetings have focused on preventing "involution" or excessive competition within the industry, leading to a more optimized supply-demand structure [7][8]. - The chemical industry is witnessing a shift from a focus on expansion to optimizing existing capacities and pursuing high-quality growth, which is expected to create better investment opportunities [9].

装置于2022年11月12日桩基开工，2023年4月1日土建开工，2024年11月30日机械竣工，2025年4月30日 中间交接，2025年8月31日一次开车成功，全程彰显了"吉化速度"。 建设过程中，吉林石化坚持以系统思维强化组织领导，建立"3+1+3"架构体系，推动管理决策、资源调 配、现场执行有机衔接；坚持以精益思想强化过程把控，突出"六大控制""六化"建设等核心目标要求， 以《项目管理手册》为项目运行管理总纲要，明确《项目总体部署》的指导性地位，实施A、B、C分 级分类管控，以会战机制保证施工节点、保障整体节奏。项目建设团队创新采用"模块化施工+数字化 交付"模式，攻克多项行业难题：成功完成急冷水塔、乙烯塔、丙烯塔等大型设备的超限运输与精准吊 装，创造极寒天气下5台千吨级大塔"37天5吊"、16台超限塔"55天16吊"的行业纪录，裂解炉安装周期较 行业平均水平压缩3个月。累计完成桩基4241根、混凝土浇筑5.3万立方米、工艺管道焊口147万吋、钢 结构2.6万吨；安装工艺设备559台（套）、敷设电气电缆645.2公里、仪表电缆1442.7公里，安装电气设 备772台（套）、仪表设备10246台（套）。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's "anti-involution" policies since July 2025 aim to address cut - throat competition, guide industrial upgrading, and promote high - quality development, impacting multiple futures market sectors [2]. - The "anti-involution" policy in the refining and chemical industry will have a structural and gradual impact on crude oil supply and demand, accelerating the clearance of inefficient capacity in the short term and promoting high - quality development and product structure optimization in the long term [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Impact on Different Market Sectors - **New Energy Sector**: The policy significantly boosted the new energy sector, with polysilicon futures leading the rally, rising 64.42% from July 1 to September 1, and lithium carbonate showing a rise of 20.93% during the same period [3]. - **Black - Series Varieties**: The impact on black - series varieties was differentiated. Coking coal rose 30.51%, coke 11.70%, and rebar only 3.28% from July 1 to September 1 [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: The "anti - involution" policy in the chemical industry is deepening from system construction to special rectification. Glass rose 6.76%, while PVC was almost flat [4]. Current Situation of the Refining and Chemical Industry - The refining and chemical industry faces severe over - capacity, with a capacity utilization rate of less than 80% and an over - capacity of about 60 million tons. The industry's operating income profit margin has been declining [5]. - Refinery operating rates are low, indicating weak demand. In March 2025, the overall capacity utilization rate was only 70.3%, and Shandong's local refinery operating rate hit a 23 - month low in July [6]. - China's crude oil processing volume is on a downward trend, with different scenarios forecasted by Zhuochuang Information in 2025 [6]. Content of the Upcoming Reform Plan - The plan includes shutting down small refineries with an annual capacity of less than 2 million tons, which could potentially reduce crude oil processing demand by about 30 million tons/year (about 603,000 barrels/day) [5]. - It aims to upgrade about 40% of petrochemical facilities that have been in use for over 20 years through multi - dimensional evaluations [7]. - It encourages the industry to shift from producing bulk chemicals to special fine chemicals for high - tech fields [7]. Long - term Impact on the Refining and Chemical Industry - The policy will drive the industry towards large - scale, integration, and high - end transformation, increasing the proportion of high - value - added chemical products and changing the quality and structure of crude oil demand [7]. - The "oil - reduction and chemical - increase" trend may lead to a shortage of naphtha supply, driving the popularity of alternative raw materials and increasing import dependence on high - value - added chemicals [8]. Impact on the Global Crude Oil Market - China's adjustment of refining policies may slow down or even decrease its crude oil import growth rate, leading to an adjustment in international crude oil trade flows [9]. - The policy may reduce the demand for high - sulfur heavy crude oil and benefit the low - sulfur light crude oil market [9]. - Although China's potential demand reduction will intensify the global supply - demand surplus, the final trend of global oil prices depends on OPEC+ policies, the global macro - economy, and geopolitical events [9].

中油工程（600339.SH） 优于大市 公司营收同比增长 12.18%，现金流情况大幅改善 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月01日 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 石油石化·油服工程 公司半年度营收同比增长 12.18%，现金流情况大幅改善。2025 年上半年， 公司实现营业收入 362.87 亿元，同比增长 12.18%；销售毛利率为 8.01%， 同比及环比均小幅下降；销售及管理费用同比减少 0.33 亿元，成本费用管 控成效显现；实现归母净利润 4.70 亿元，同比减少 10.87%。得益于结算清 收加快及项目预收款和收款增加，公司经营活动现金流净额经营活动现金流 从去年同期-70.52 亿元大幅改善至-15.33 亿元，带动公司现金流情况转暖； 公司均订每 10 股派 0.13 元（含税）现金股息，合计 7258 万元，占 2025 年 上半年归母净利润的 15.44%。 油气田地面工程、油气储运工程、炼油与化工工程是公司核心业务板块，环 境工程及其他业务快速拓展。油气地面工程以陆上石油天然气工程为主，积 极拓展海洋工程和天然气液化工程；管道与储运工程主要发展陆上及海洋油 气管道、化工石油储库等工程 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have initiated a nationwide assessment of outdated petrochemical production facilities, focusing on those that have been in operation for over 20 years [2][10] - The assessment aims to establish a comprehensive database and prepare for the upcoming elimination and renovation of outdated facilities, which is part of a broader effort to address supply surplus and enhance industry standards [2][5][10] - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant supply surplus issues, with refining capacity exceeding 1 billion tons per year and utilization rates dropping to around 70% [6][9] Group 2 - The supply-side structural reform has entered its 2.0 phase, building on the initial reforms that began in 2015, which successfully addressed overcapacity in the steel and coal industries [3][5] - The current state of the petrochemical industry reflects a systemic overcapacity, with many products experiencing price declines and widespread losses among companies [5][8] - The government has set a target to reduce crude oil processing capacity to below 1 billion tons by the end of 2025, focusing on eliminating inefficient production capacities [9][11] Group 3 - The assessment of outdated facilities is expected to lead to targeted measures for upgrading or closing down inefficient plants, particularly those with capacities below 300 million tons [11] - The industry is encouraged to adopt new technologies and business models to transition towards greener and more efficient operations, with support from government policies [11][12] - A shift from oil-based products to specialty chemicals is emphasized, aiming for a balanced ratio of crude oil used for refining and chemical production [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The financial reports of China's three major oil companies, known as "Three Barrels of Oil," show a synchronized decline in overall performance for the first half of 2025, raising concerns in the industry [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) reported a net profit of 84.01 billion yuan, down 5.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) achieved a net profit of 21.48 billion yuan, a significant drop of 39.8% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) recorded a net profit of 69.53 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [2][3]. - The total profit of the three companies decreased by 29.05 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, averaging a loss of approximately 1.6 billion yuan per day [1]. Revenue and Price Trends - CNPC's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1,450.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, with a Brent crude oil average price of $71.87 per barrel, down 14.5% from $84.06 per barrel in the previous year [2][3]. - Sinopec's revenue was 1,409.05 billion yuan, down 10.6% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share dropping by 40.2% [2][3]. - CNOOC's revenue was 207.61 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% decline year-on-year [2][3]. Sales Volume and Pricing Impact - In the first half of 2025, half of CNPC's eight major export products saw a decline in sales volume, particularly in polypropylene, gasoline, and diesel [4]. - The average selling prices of key products, including crude oil and diesel, fell by 12.3% and 9.4%, respectively [4]. - Sinopec attributed its profit decline to falling crude oil and product prices, leading to reduced inventory profits and lower domestic gasoline and diesel sales [4]. Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The oil and gas extraction and refining sectors are experiencing a "triple decline" in revenue, profit, and import-export volume, indicating increased industry differentiation [5]. - The overall petrochemical industry reported a revenue of 77.7 trillion yuan, down 2.6% year-on-year, with a continued trend of "increased volume, decreased price" in imports and exports [6]. - The total production and consumption of refined oil products have declined for the first time, influenced by the rise of new energy vehicles and liquefied natural gas [8]. - Companies are accelerating the development of non-oil businesses, with Sinopec reporting a 17% increase in non-oil business profits [8][9]. - Looking ahead, CNPC anticipates continued downward pressure on international oil prices due to a relaxed supply-demand balance in the market [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **refining and petrochemical industry** in China and globally, focusing on capacity reduction and structural optimization due to domestic policies and international market dynamics [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Domestic Policies**: China is implementing anti-involution policies aimed at controlling total capacity and optimizing structure, encouraging a shift from oil to chemical production [1][3][6]. 2. **Global Capacity Reduction**: The global petrochemical industry is undergoing significant capacity reductions, particularly in Japan, South Korea, and Europe, to address cyclical downturns and environmental pressures [1][5][12]. 3. **Upcoming Standards**: By August 30, local governments are expected to complete inspections of enterprises and facilities, leading to the release of elimination standards by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1][7]. 4. **Capacity Elimination Criteria**: Refining facilities with capacities below 2 million tons and ethylene facilities below 500,000 tons, particularly those over 20 years old, are likely to be targeted for elimination [1][7][8]. 5. **Impact on Industry Players**: The elimination of small-scale facilities will benefit integrated large state-owned enterprises and coastal private refining companies, promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction technologies [1][10][19]. 6. **Profitability Concerns**: The refining industry is currently experiencing its lowest profitability in nearly two decades, influenced by domestic policies and international market conditions [2][3]. 7. **Market Dynamics**: The European petrochemical sector faces rising costs, weak demand, and competition from Chinese firms, leading to a gradual exit from the market, with the U.S., Middle East, and China expected to fill the void [4][12][14]. 8. **Future Measures**: The government plans to implement strict project approvals, accelerate the elimination of old facilities, and promote high-end material research and industry self-regulation [6][9]. 9. **Integration and Upgrading**: New refining projects must exceed 10 million tons in capacity, while older facilities will need technological upgrades to meet energy efficiency and carbon reduction goals [8][10][21]. 10. **Global Supply Chain Effects**: The closure of facilities in Europe and Asia will create supply-demand mismatches, potentially increasing prices for ethylene and related products [17][18]. Additional Important Content - **Investment Opportunities**: The shift towards larger, integrated facilities presents opportunities for companies involved in energy conservation technologies and digital manufacturing processes [10][19]. - **Market Competition**: As European firms exit, Chinese companies are positioned to enhance their international competitiveness, particularly in fine chemicals and high-end polymers [14][18]. - **Long-term Trends**: The refining and petrochemical sectors will need to adapt to global market conditions, with a focus on integrating operations and enhancing efficiency to remain competitive [25][26][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the refining and petrochemical industry amidst evolving market dynamics and regulatory frameworks.

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and operational challenges faced by Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co., Ltd. in the first half of 2025, indicating a decline in revenue and profit due to various market pressures and strategic shifts in the petrochemical industry [1][2]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - Zhenhai Petrochemical Engineering Co., Ltd. reported a total revenue of approximately 170.60 million yuan, a decrease of 14.76% compared to the same period last year [2]. - The total profit for the period was approximately 29.05 million yuan, down 31.67% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 25.96 million yuan, reflecting a 30.42% decline compared to the previous year [2]. - The company's total assets decreased by 5.21% to approximately 1.31 billion yuan, while net assets decreased by 2.12% to approximately 1.01 billion yuan [2]. Industry Position and Business Model - The company specializes in the petrochemical engineering sector, providing comprehensive services from project planning to operational support, with a focus on EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) contracts [3][4]. - Zhenhai Petrochemical competes with major state-owned enterprises in the industry, leveraging its expertise in environmental protection and technology upgrades to differentiate itself [5][6]. - The company has established a strong brand image and technical capabilities, which are critical for maintaining its competitive edge in the market [6][7]. Market Dynamics and Performance Drivers - The performance of the company is closely tied to market demand in the petrochemical sector, which is influenced by the overall economic conditions and the industry's cyclical nature [7][8]. - The transition of the petrochemical industry from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" is reshaping market demand and creating opportunities for companies that can innovate and adapt [8][9]. - The company's revenue is primarily driven by its engineering services, which are essential during periods of high demand in the petrochemical sector [7][8]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on enhancing its service offerings in high-value sectors such as fine chemicals and new materials, aiming to create a second growth curve [17][18]. - Zhenhai Petrochemical is actively pursuing strategic partnerships and collaborations to drive innovation and improve operational efficiency [15][16]. - The company plans to leverage digital transformation and advanced technologies to enhance its service capabilities and respond to the evolving market landscape [20].