二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 构建股票基金组合的思路 从长期看，股票资产是财富积累的最佳途径。 有朋友问，如何判断哪些品种处于低估？ 成长/价值风格轮动，该如何应对？ 分散配置+再平衡，为何能实现1+1＞2？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0303 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） PS：直播内容仅为市场知识分享，不构成投资建议。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第436期直播回放】 螺丝钉星级 ，可以用来判断市场整体的估值情况。 每个交易日晚上，在公众号上更新的估值表的最上方，会有一行红色的星星，就是螺丝钉星级。 但与此同时，股票资产的波动风险也远远超过了其他资产。 那么，该怎么做，才能获得好收益呢？ 其实，我们可以参考以下思路，来构建股票基金组合： 下面，我们就来具体介绍下。 2. 低估投资：再好的品种，也要买得便宜 在低估阶段投资，是投资股票基金的一个大原则。 低估投资有以下两个方面的好处： · 低估投资，能降低持有期间的波动风险； · 低估买入，未来估值提升空间更大。 那么，我们该怎么判断 ...

Core Insights - As of February 9, 2026, a total of 149 actively managed equity funds have reached their highest unit net value since inception [1] Fund Performance and Strategy - The investment styles of these funds show divergence: some focus on concentrated investments in AI computing power and applications, demonstrating significant performance elasticity but also higher volatility [1] - Other funds prioritize diversified allocations to manage risk effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market has led to significant losses for investors, highlighting the risks associated with high-leverage trading and emotional decision-making [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Volatility - The gold market experienced extreme fluctuations, with prices soaring to $5,500 per ounce before plummeting, resulting in account losses exceeding 30% for some investors [1]. - Historical patterns show that gold prices have previously experienced sharp declines following peaks, such as a 65% drop after reaching $850 in 1980 and a 45% drop after hitting $1,920 in 2011 [3]. - The recent drop was triggered by multiple factors, including a 30% increase in gold prices at the start of 2026, profit-taking by investors, and increased margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investor psychology has amplified risks, with many chasing prices at highs and suffering losses due to failure to take profits [5]. - Panic selling was observed among retail investors, leading to significant declines in gold stocks, with some stocks hitting their daily limit down [5]. - The influx of capital into gold ETFs before the drop indicates a trend of following others without proper analysis, contributing to market instability [5]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Experts recommend rational investment strategies, advising against one-sided speculation and suggesting a 3-6 month observation period before making decisions [7]. - For average investors, physical gold bars and gold ETFs are recommended, with a suggestion to limit gold allocation to 5-10% of household assets [7]. - Historical experiences emphasize the importance of avoiding emotional decision-making in precious metal investments, advocating for diversified asset allocation [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising trend of year-end bonus investment as the 2026 Spring Festival approaches, with popular choices including large time deposits, stable funds, and gold products [1] Group 2 - The demand for investment products is driven by banks competing in the "year-end bonus investment" market, with institutions like Bank of Communications, Postal Savings Bank, and China Merchants Bank offering one-stop services for deposits, funds, and insurance [2] - Current interest rates for one-year deposits at state-owned banks have dropped to 1.75%, while large time deposit rates range from 2% to 3%, prompting investors to seek higher returns through diversified investments [3] Group 3 - Three types of investment strategies are suggested for different demographics: - Conservative strategy for low to middle-income earners includes setting aside emergency funds in money market funds and investing in government bonds for medium-term goals [4][5] - Balanced strategy for middle-class families involves allocating funds to long-term government bonds, stable financial products, and maintaining liquidity through money market funds [8] - Aggressive strategy for high-net-worth individuals focuses on low-volatility bank products or gold ETFs, along with thematic funds for potential excess returns [8][9] Group 4 - The article warns against potential risks associated with year-end bonus investments, including scams promising high returns, liquidity mismatches, and the dangers of following investment trends without proper analysis [13] - Practical advice includes managing funds through separate accounts, utilizing tax benefits from personal pension accounts, and adhering to a disciplined saving approach [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recognition of various stock indices by institutional investors and their suitability for ordinary investors, particularly beginners. It emphasizes the importance of diversified allocation and rebalancing in index investing [1]. Group 1: Common Stock Index Guidance - The rapid growth of index funds is noted, with projections indicating that by 2025, the total scale of index funds will exceed 5.5 trillion, making it the largest type of stock fund in China [4]. - The introduction of new indices, such as the China Securities A500 index fund launched in September 2024, which reached several hundred billion in scale within just over a year, highlights the increasing variety of index funds available [5]. - The article identifies common stock index guidance suitable for both institutional and ordinary investors, focusing on key indices that can serve as investment references [7][8]. Group 2: Public Fund Performance Benchmark Library - The establishment of a standardized "benchmark library" for public funds aims to address issues of vague performance benchmarks and inconsistent investment strategies among funds [12]. - The current public fund performance benchmark library includes a variety of stock indices, with 69 indices in the first category and 72 in the second category, focusing on strong market representation and high recognition [14]. - The first category includes widely recognized indices such as the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, which are essential for fund managers in developing actively managed funds [14][15]. Group 3: Personal Pension Accounts - The introduction of the personal pension system in 2022 allows individuals to voluntarily open accounts with a maximum annual contribution of 12,000 yuan, which can be deducted from taxable income [17]. - By the end of 2025, the number of pension index funds will expand to 91, covering 16 mainstream indices, indicating a growing focus on retirement investment options [19]. - The first batch of pension index funds includes 85 funds, emphasizing the importance of risk control for new investors [21]. Group 4: Constant Proportion Stock-Bond Indices - Constant proportion stock-bond indices are designed to maintain a fixed ratio of stocks and bonds, with periodic rebalancing to adhere to this ratio [23]. - These indices typically have a higher allocation to bonds, often exceeding 70%, and are characterized by a target risk strategy [28]. - The introduction of these indices aligns with the trend of multi-asset investment strategies, which may include stocks, bonds, and potentially other assets like gold in the future [24]. Group 5: Insurance Company Risk Factor Adjustments - In December 2025, regulatory adjustments reduced the risk factors for insurance companies investing in indices like the CSI 300 and the low-volatility dividend index, allowing for more capital to be allocated to these assets [32]. - The reduction in risk factors from 0.3 to 0.27 for the CSI 300 means that insurance companies can free up more funds for investment, enhancing their capacity to invest in stable assets [38][39]. - The implications of these adjustments are significant for ordinary investors, as they reflect a conservative investment approach focused on long-term value appreciation with manageable volatility [40]. Group 6: Suitable Indices for Beginner Investors - The article identifies the most frequently referenced indices in various guidance categories as suitable for beginner investors, primarily focusing on broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500 [67]. - The recommended investment strategy for beginners includes a combination of broad-based indices and growth/value strategies, such as the leading strategy and dividend strategy [68]. - The article suggests that new investors can benefit from diversified exposure to both growth and value styles, which can enhance returns while managing risk [45].

Core Views - Risk control is prioritized over profit generation, emphasizing that avoiding significant drawdowns is more important than achieving returns [2][7] - The real estate sector presents a once-in-a-decade opportunity due to supply-side clearing and cyclical recovery, with a potential turning point expected within six months [2][9] - The future equity market is anticipated to be a structural bull market, with significant revaluation potential for core cyclical blue-chip stocks, indicating a return to value investing [2][10] Investment Philosophy - The investment style is defined as "classical macro," focusing on economic cycle positioning and predicting core economic variables over the next 1-2 years [5] - The strategy is based on "pure alpha," contrasting with the popular "all-weather strategy," which relies on fixed bases and market beta [5] Risk Management - The core of the risk management system is "concentration control," with strict limits on asset classes, industry holdings, and individual stock positions to avoid vulnerability [7][8] Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to stabilize as supply-side adjustments occur, with significant declines in new construction and sales indicating a market clearing [9] - The equity market is not expected to experience a systemic bull market but rather a structural one, with significant disparities in performance among different indices [10] Gold Investment Perspective - The long-term investment value of gold is diminishing, with current high valuations and potential risks associated with currency fluctuations [12] Personal Insights - Sharing investment philosophies has led to systematic thinking and positive interactions, contributing to personal growth and community engagement [13] - Acknowledging mistakes is essential for survival in investment, with a focus on risk control to mitigate potential losses [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the suitability of index funds for novice investors, emphasizing the importance of diversified allocation and rebalancing strategies in index investing [1][4][37]. Group 1: Suitable Indexes for Beginners - For most households, investing in index funds is more appropriate than picking individual stocks due to the time and risk involved in stock selection [4][5]. - Commonly recommended index types for beginners include broad-based indexes like the CSI 300 and the CSI 500, which cover large and mid-cap stocks in the A-share market [23][24]. - The article highlights that the first batch of pension index funds corresponds to 85 index funds covering 16 mainstream indexes as of the end of 2024 [11]. Group 2: Characteristics of Indexes - The public fund performance benchmark library includes two categories: Category One and Category Two, with 69 and 72 indexes respectively, focusing on market representation and innovation [6][7]. - The article lists various indexes, including the CSI 300, CSI 500, and others, which are suitable for investment and have been included in pension accounts [8][12]. Group 3: Pension Accounts and Investment Strategies - The personal pension account allows individuals to deposit up to 12,000 yuan annually, with tax deductions available during contributions and a low tax rate of 3% upon withdrawal [9]. - The article outlines the characteristics of stock-bond constant proportion indexes, which maintain a fixed asset allocation and undergo regular rebalancing [13][15]. Group 4: Impact of Risk Factor Adjustments - In December, the risk factors for insurance companies investing in the CSI 300 and other indexes were lowered, allowing for more capital to be allocated to these assets [17][20]. - The adjustment from a risk factor of 0.3 to 0.27 for the CSI 300 means that an insurance company holding 10 billion yuan in stocks would see its required risk capital decrease from 3 billion to 2.7 billion yuan [19][20]. Group 5: Investment Styles and Strategies - The article categorizes investment strategies into six main types: leader strategy, dividend strategy, value strategy, low volatility strategy, growth strategy, and quality strategy [26]. - It notes that the A-share market exhibits characteristics of style rotation between growth and value, with both styles showing similar long-term returns despite short-term fluctuations [30][33].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with significant movements in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the technology sector, driven by favorable economic indicators such as lower-than-expected CPI data in the US, which supports the potential for further interest rate cuts [5][6][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market has risen, closing at 4.2 stars, which is close to 4.1 stars [1]. - All market caps, including large, mid, and small caps, have seen increases, with small caps showing slightly higher gains [2]. - The growth style has been particularly strong, contributing to the overall market rise [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Historical analysis indicates that A-shares have experienced three significant bear markets in the last 15 years: 2012-2014, 2018, and the ongoing 2022-2024 period, suggesting that these bear markets present valuable investment opportunities [17]. - It is estimated that an investor may encounter 6-10 bear market buying opportunities over a 30-year investment horizon, emphasizing the cyclical nature of markets [20][21]. - The article suggests that patience in waiting for undervalued buying opportunities can lead to successful long-term investments, with the potential for around 20 investment opportunities over 30 years if one diversifies across various asset classes [28][29]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article references Warren Buffett's analogy of having only 20 investment opportunities in a lifetime, which encourages careful consideration before making investment decisions [9][10]. - It highlights the importance of understanding market cycles and maintaining composure during downturns, as the market will eventually reward those who are patient [30]. - The article also mentions the significance of diversification and rebalancing in index investments, which can enhance investment outcomes for ordinary investors [30].

Group 1 - The core concept of fund advisory is to address the issue where funds make profits, but investors do not [4] - Fund advisory services aim to help investors achieve better returns through professional guidance [5] - The article highlights the importance of diversification in investment to effectively reduce volatility risk [10] Group 2 - Research by overseas investment expert Burton Malkiel indicates that the number of stocks held is related to the volatility risk [12] - Investing in only two stocks can lead to a volatility risk that is 2-3 times higher than the overall market risk [13] - Increasing the number of stocks to 20 reduces the risk to about one-third to two-thirds higher than the market risk [14] - Holding 50 stocks aligns the risk with the overall market risk, as seen in major indices like the SSE 50 and STAR Market 50 [15] - Beyond 50 stocks, the reduction in risk becomes marginal, with indices like CSI 300 and CSI 500 reflecting the market's inherent risk [16] - It is recommended to diversify across different industries to enhance risk reduction [16][17] Group 3 - For actively managed funds, the number of heavily weighted stocks typically ranges from 10 to 20, resulting in a risk that is one-third to two-thirds higher than the market [19] - However, investing in a diversified basket of funds can lead to a lower volatility risk compared to the market, with underlying stocks numbering around 100 [19]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in pure bond funds, with a reported drop of 6% in one week, highlights the credit risk associated with bonds, particularly in the context of real estate debt issues [3][10][11]. Group 1: Understanding Bond Funds - Pure bond funds invest in a diversified portfolio of bonds, which are essentially IOUs from governments or corporations [5][6]. - The perception of bond funds as stable investments can be misleading, as they are still subject to credit risk if the borrowing entity defaults [8][11]. - The recent drop in net value of certain bond funds is attributed to specific bonds experiencing adjustments, likely due to underlying credit issues [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy for Bond Funds - Investors are encouraged to continue purchasing bond funds but should focus on selection criteria to mitigate risks [12]. - Diversification across multiple bond funds can help manage risks associated with individual bond defaults [14]. - Historical performance indicates that over a longer time horizon, bond markets tend to trend upwards despite occasional downturns [15]. Group 3: Criteria for Selecting Bond Funds - A four-step selection method is proposed for identifying quality bond funds: 1. Choose funds from reputable companies with strong research capabilities [20]. 2. Select funds with a moderate size, ideally between 2 billion and 20 billion, to avoid issues related to very small or overly large funds [21]. 3. Focus on funds with low maximum drawdown and high Sharpe ratios to ensure stability and return efficiency [21]. 4. Diversify investments across 2 to 5 different funds to reduce overall risk exposure [21]. Group 4: Practical Steps for Investment - Investors can utilize platforms like Alipay to filter and select bond funds based on specific criteria such as fund size and performance metrics [22][29]. - Setting thresholds for maximum drawdown and Sharpe ratio can help in identifying top-performing funds [26][27].