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解码中国经济转型的底层逻辑《经济动能的转换:从规模经济到创新驱动》| 商业高研院
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 13:17
从"大基建"向"大民生"转型,加大养老、教育、医疗等公共服务投入,通过转移支付实现区域福利均等 化。 反内卷与新型城镇化的逻辑创新,回应了经济发展中的结构性矛盾。针对内卷式竞争,作者提出要通过 行业协会建立劳资博弈机制,完善劳动法规并严格执法,遏制"低于成本定价"、"超长劳动时间"等非理 性竞争行为。在城镇化方面,"城市群+统一大市场"的思路也极具实践价值。 金融全球化与科创兴国的逻辑,勾勒了中国经济未来的核心竞争力。作者主张,中国金融业需要从"货 币化、资本化"的旧逻辑转向"全球资本竞争"的新逻辑,通过扩大人民币国债发行、推动金融机构出 海,提升人民币在全球分配体系中的影响力。而科创兴国的关键在于建立"市场化激励+政府引导"的双 重机制:既要通过知识产权保护提高侵权成本,激励企业开展原创性研发;也要通过产学研融合打通成 果转化通道,让高校、科研机构的创新成果真正落地生根。 纵观这本著作全文,清晰的逻辑脉络和鞭辟入里的经济学分析,让它不失为一本值得深刻研究的书籍。 首先在于它构建了一个兼具历史深度与客观现实的分析框架。作者没有陷入"制度决定论"或"要素决定 论"的单一叙事,而是将分配、规模、土地、金融等要素置 ...
吴其伦:中国经济正从传统要素驱动全面转向创新驱动、技术驱动与绿色驱动
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 12:11
2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会于1月15日在北京举行。财经评论人,专栏作家吴其伦表 示,经济从不只是数字的起伏,更是时代的脉搏,人民生活的轨迹、国家前行的足音。 专题:2025微博财经之夜暨北京财经大V联盟年会 吴其伦指出,评价超大型经济体的核心在于应对风浪的战略定力与内在韧性。2025年,中国经济在复杂 国际环境与国内转型压力下,展现出强劲抗风险能力与修复力,全年GDP增速超5.2%,增量相当于一 个中等规模经济体的年度总量,在全球主要经济体中位居前列。增长动力结构实现历史性转变,最终消 费支出对经济增长的贡献率攀升至53.5%,内需主引擎作用愈发稳固。 宏观指标持续向好印证发展底气:全国城镇失业率稳定在5.2%的合理区间,核心CPI同比涨幅连续扩 大,反映内需温和回暖;外汇储备规模稳定在3.3万亿美元,人民币汇率保持基本稳定,货物贸易出口 创历史同期新高,彰显中国在全球产业链中的稳固地位。这一系列成果得益于对经济规律的深刻把握与 宏观政策的精准施策,通过统筹"两重"与"两新"政策,既拉动当下投资消费,更着眼中长期高质量发 展,展现兼顾当下与长远的系统性智慧。 以更自信的姿态融入全球经济体系,参 ...
利好政策延续!外资投资境内债券利息收入继续免征所得税和增值税
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 10:11
高盛在近日发布的《中国2026年展望:探索新动能》中预计,2026年中国实际GDP将增长4.8%,高于 市场共识的4.5%,并预测MSCI中国指数和沪深300指数年内将分别上涨20%和12%。到2027年末,中国 股票市场有望实现38%的涨幅。 《经济日报》日前援引瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊的话称,2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从2025 年的6%进一步升至8%。名义国内生产总值增速提升、企业营收增长、支持政策持续出台,以及"反内 卷"政策的推进带动利润率复苏,都将对整体盈利改善起到推动作用。 近日,中国银行协助德国工业巨头汉高集团在中国银行间债券市场发行15亿元熊猫债。1月8日,巴克莱 银行开启40亿元熊猫债发行,彰显出外资对人民币债券资产的认可。 外资加仓背后是头部机构对中国资产的集体看好。 记者 辛圆 汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶表示,2025年中国创新驱动的增长有所加速,包括 DeepSeek在内的AI领域突破以及创新药等领域的进展尤为突出,预计创新能力将成为中国核心优势之 一,有望持续吸引外资布局中国资产。 财政部、税务总局最新发布公告称,自2026年1月1日起至2027年12月 ...
刘尚希:AI“抢饭碗”或成现实?社会必须为每个人的基本生活“兜底”!
新浪财经· 2026-01-15 09:32
"新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办,主题是"十五五 开局,经济新启航——重塑增长范式,共创未来繁荣"。全国政协委员,中国财政科学研究 院研究员、原院长刘尚希出席并演讲。 以下为演讲实录: 各位专家、各位来宾: 大家好!很高兴参加这个讨论。我讲的题目是《走向共同富裕:中国发展的新范式》。 共同富裕是一个要深刻探讨的理论问题,今天主题是新的增长范式。从这个角度说,共同富 裕是发展的新范式。为何从范式角度理解共同富裕,而非仅从分配角度?这有更深刻内涵。 共同富裕是人类文明发展面临的难题,需要发展范式转换。实现共同富裕是中国式现代化的 基本特征,意味着不同于西方现代化。所以,中国式现代化蕴含与西方不同的发展范式,理 论上如何说清,这是理论工作者、研究者、学者的共同任务。 我们曾做过研究,在共同富裕方面出过一本书,侧重从人的发展角度讲如何扎实推进中国共 同富裕。 共同富裕是对传统发展范式挑战。一说到"富裕",可能指物质财富,大家富裕且物质财富 差距不大,人们不由自主这么想。其实共同富裕是基于物还是人,涉及财富积累与知识积累 关系。 从物角度看,无法摆脱存量 - 流量分配循环产生 ...
创新改革双轮驱动 山西晋城多点发力破局突围
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-01-15 06:02
中新网晋城1月15日电 (杨佩佩闫妮莎)今年是"十五五"开局之年,诞生于改革春风中的山西晋城,面对 新一轮发展机遇,当以何识变、应变、求变,奋力实现破局突围?晋城市委经济工作会议给出清晰答 案:坚持创新驱动与改革攻坚同频共振,以更大力度破除体制机制障碍、激发动力活力。 以创新驱动,点燃发展新引擎 在晋城市光机电产业研究院,入驻项目既能获得从孵化到量产的全链条支持,又能对接院士团队和省级 重点实验室等高能级创新资源。如今,这里已成为晋城打造"光机电产业集聚城市"的前沿阵地。 2025年,晋城统筹推进15项重点改革、13项改革试点和10项便民利民"小切口"改革,一批具有晋城辨识 度的制度成果加速涌现。 在奋进"十五五"的开局之年,晋城将在优化资源配置上大胆探索,展现系统性改革思维:充分发挥经济 体制改革牵引作用,接续抓好12个方面46项改革任务,推出更多可复制推广的经验做法。 同时,晋城将积极推进低效用地再开发试点,抓好全域土地综合整治;稳步实施供水、供电、供气、能 源、交通等公共事业价格改革;深化财政体制和零基预算改革,强化财政监督与绩效评价,确保资金使 用效益。 以主体强基,激发内生新活力 近年来,晋城将科技 ...
全文|刘世锦谈经济增长:以投资出口为主转向以创新和消费为主
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-15 03:17
专题:新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛 "新浪财经2025年会暨第18届金麒麟论坛"于2026年1月15日在北京举办,本次会议的主题是"十五五开 局,经济新启航——重塑增长范式,共创未来繁荣"。第十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任,国务院发 展研究中心原副主任刘世锦出席并演讲。 以下为演讲实录: 刘世锦:尊敬的各位领导、各位嘉宾: 大家上午好! 很高兴能到新浪财经2025年会和大家进行交流,我看了一下,我们这次年会的主题里边有句话,就 是"重塑增长范式"。我就想从这个角度讲一下"十五五"期间增长动能转换和一些重要的改革。 在经历了30多年的高速增长以后,中国经济从2010年一季度开始由高速逐步转向中速,经济增长面临的 主要的挑战也由供给约束转成需求约束。在这种背景之下,和以往我们若干个五年计划有所区别的是, 以往我们大体上保持一个稳定的增长框架,在这个框架里边做一些阶段性的调整。这一次不一样了,这 一次"十五五"期间是要从原有的增长框架中走出来,要开辟和确立新的增长框架。这个新的增长框架有 一条主线,从增长动能的角度来讲,要由过去的投资和出口驱动为主转向创新和消费驱动为主,这样一 个转变将会体现在我们经济 ...
Neogen (NasdaqGS:NEOG) FY Conference Transcript
2026-01-15 02:17
Neogen Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Neogen Corporation - **Industry**: Food and Animal Safety - **Core Business**: Provides diagnostic testing solutions across the food supply chain and animal health markets globally [1] Key Points and Arguments Market Opportunity - The food safety market is expanding due to increased food complexity, stricter regulations, and rising consumer expectations for quality and safety [4] - In 2022, there were 50 million foodborne illness cases in the U.S., with 100,000 hospitalizations and 3,000 deaths, highlighting the critical need for food safety solutions [2][3] - Neogen aims to ensure food safety, sufficiency, and suitability for everyone, positioning itself as a trusted authority in the industry [3][10] Business Structure and Portfolio - Neogen operates through two global business units: food safety and animal safety, with a focus on consumable-driven products that provide recurring revenue [4][5] - The company has market leadership in pathogen detection indicators, particularly with its flagship product, Petrifilm, which simplifies microbiology testing in food processing [5][6][8] Recent Challenges and Turnaround Strategy - Neogen has faced challenges following the acquisition of the 3M Food Safety business, which doubled its size but complicated integration [10] - The management team has been restructured, with five new leaders hired to drive the turnaround strategy, which includes three stages: stabilize, accelerate, and expand [12][13] - The goal is to achieve mid to high single-digit revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margins of 20% to 30% in the long term [11] Innovation and Future Growth - Innovation is a key focus, with plans to enhance product offerings and address customer needs through a dedicated Chief Science Officer [14][17] - A new standalone Petrifilm production site in Lansing, Michigan, is on track for completion by November 2026, which will support product validation and production [16][17] - The company aims to increase investment in R&D, focusing on tangible projects that solve customer problems [17] Financial Performance and Guidance - Neogen reported improved Q2 results, exceeding consensus forecasts, but has been cautious in raising full-year guidance due to the need for sustained performance [25][26] - The management team is focused on building a predictable and sustainable business while recognizing the importance of restoring trust with investors [19][20] Additional Important Insights - The food safety industry is less constrained by reimbursement or government funding, driven instead by regulatory requirements, which presents a favorable market environment [22][30] - The innovation cycle in food safety is faster compared to human diagnostics, allowing Neogen to respond more quickly to market needs [30] - The company acknowledges past operational challenges but is optimistic about the potential for improvement under the new leadership team [31][32] Conclusion - Neogen is positioned in a growing market with significant opportunities for innovation and improvement. The new management team is focused on stabilizing the business and driving growth through enhanced operational execution and customer engagement [20][36]
又一座“准万亿”之城“出分”了
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2026-01-15 00:40
Economic Growth Projections - Dalian's GDP is expected to grow by over 5.5% in 2025, with industrial added value increasing by over 11.7% and retail sales of consumer goods growing around 3% [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 20 key indicators for economic and social development, including an average annual GDP growth of 5% and urbanization rate reaching 83.75% by 2030 [1][2] - Dalian aims for a GDP growth target of over 5% in 2026, with industrial added value growth of 7% and fixed asset investment growth of around 5% [1] Industrial Development - Dalian's industrial growth has been significant, achieving a two-digit growth rate of over 11.7% in industrial added value, surpassing the initial target of 7% [2] - The city is focusing on transforming its industrial structure, with the green petrochemical industry maintaining a stable scale of around 400 billion yuan, and new energy vehicle industry output exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] - Dalian's shipbuilding and marine engineering equipment industry has reached an output value of 80 billion yuan, while high-end bearings and advanced rail transit equipment have generated 58 billion yuan [2] Innovation and R&D - Dalian's government report sets specific innovation-driven targets, including a research and development expenditure intensity of around 3.2% by 2030 and a digital economy core industry value added accounting for 14.5% of GDP [3] - The city aims to achieve a high-value invention patent ownership of 23.5 per 10,000 people [3] Comparison with Other Cities - Other northeastern cities like Shenyang and Changchun are also focusing on economic stability and growth, with Shenyang emphasizing internal demand and Changchun projecting a GDP growth of over 5% by 2025 [3]
工信部两天三场会议涉及汽车产业,反“内卷”是重头戏
工业和信息化部装备工业发展中心、汽车工业协会、17家重点汽车企业等单位有关负责同志参加会议。 此前,在整治"内卷式"竞争的背景下,2025年6月,17家车企作出"支付账期不超过60天"的承诺。2025年9月,中汽协发布《汽车整车企业供应 商账款支付规范倡议》,随后,17家作出账期承诺的车企陆续发表声明,表示将积极落实《汽车整车企业供应商账款支付规范倡议》。 需要注意的是,包括前述会议在内,工信部两天内三场会议涉及汽车行业,且均关乎反"内卷"。 1月13日上午,工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开第十八次制造业企业座谈会(以下简称"座谈会")。座谈会上,有来自汽车等 重点行业的12家企业负责人作交流发言。 21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 北京报道 据工信部网站消息,2026年1月14日,工业和信息化部装备工业一司、国家发展改革委产业发展司、市场 监管总局价格监督检查和反不正当竞争局(以下统称"三部门")联合召开新能源汽车行业企业座谈会,部署规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序相关 工作。 座谈会强调,广大企业家要坚守主业,加快高质量发展。立足"两个大局",胸怀"国之大者",在加快自身发展的同时引领行业提质增效,以优 质 ...
中国外贸“含智量”凸显创新驱动成效
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-14 19:42
Core Insights - China's foreign trade demonstrates remarkable resilience amidst a global slowdown, with exports reaching 26.99 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [1][2] - The country has transitioned from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing in China," focusing on high-value, differentiated products [1][3] - Innovation is identified as the key driver for China's foreign trade, enabling the country to overcome uncertainties and enhance competitiveness [2][3] Export Performance - Exports of specialized equipment, high-end machine tools, and industrial robots grew by 20.6%, 21.5%, and 48.7% respectively, with industrial robots becoming a net export for the first time [1] - The export of smart robots and other high-tech products has seen significant growth, with some categories experiencing over 60% increase in exports [2] Market Adaptation - Chinese companies are successfully integrating traditional craftsmanship with modern innovation, as seen in the examples of ceramic decorations and desert air conditioners [2] - The shift in focus from quantity and price competition to intelligence and innovation reflects a strategic move towards higher value in the global supply chain [3] Economic Transition - China's economy is undergoing a critical phase of transformation, moving away from investment-driven growth towards innovation-driven development [3] - The emphasis on innovation is crucial for maintaining stable growth in foreign trade and accelerating economic transformation [3]