鲍威尔：确保社区银行稳健经营 在美联储公布的讲话稿中，鲍威尔表示，社区银行在美国金融体系中发挥着至关重要的作用，因为它们 与所服务的个人和企业有着密切的联系，并且对当地经济状况有直接的了解。这些密切的联系使社区银 行家能够更好地了解他们的客户，以及他们所服务的客户随之而来的产品和服务。 鲍威尔表示，当天的活动是美联储领导人听取社区银行家意见，并更多地了解用户面临的问题的有用机 会。鲍威尔强调，美联储致力于了解这些问题，并一直致力于为社区银行量身定制监管实践，以减少不 必要的负担，同时仍然确保社区银行继续以安全稳健的方式运营。 在致辞中，鲍威尔并未提及当前经济形势，以及货币政策相关的内容。 纽约联储负责人：支持继续降息 10月9日，美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）委员、纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）在接受《纽约时报》采访时明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳动力市场可 能出现的急剧放缓风险。 在采访中，威廉姆斯表示："劳动力市场进一步放缓的风险是我非常关注的事情。"他详细阐述了美联储 对当前就业市场状况的评估。他表示，过去一年来劳动力市场呈现渐进式降温趋势，虽然失业率 ...

美国政府关门导致劳工统计局暂停发布非农就业数据之际，私人数据提供商Revelio Labs报告（RPLS）显示，9月份美国新增就业岗位6万个，为2025年最 佳。这一数据远超此前ADP报告的负3.2万个岗位流失，有效缓解了市场对劳动力衰退的担忧。 Revelio Labs的数据显示，9月就业增长"略高于预期"，主要由教育、医疗服务和零售贸易部门推动。该机构首席经济学家Lisa Simon表示，尽管就业增长相 对温和，但配合招聘和薪资数据显示劳动力市场持续放缓而非崩溃。 Revelio数据显示就业结构性改善 RPLS基于超过1亿美国用户档案构建，提供清晰的劳动力动态视图。该统计体系采用类似劳工统计局的格式，跟踪就业水平、工资和职位转换，规模超越传 统调查，提供劳动力市场的连续图景。 Revelio公共劳动统计(RPLS)9月数据显示，就业增长主要集中在高质量部门。教育、医疗服务和零售贸易推动了就业增长，而休闲酒店和商业服务等政府代 理部门出现下降。 Lisa Simon表示，虽然9月就业增长略高于预期，但仍属相对小幅增长。结合招聘广告、薪资水平、雇佣和员工流失率的下降，这些数据表明劳动力市场持 续放缓。 | D ...

此次关门威胁打断今年以来将标普500基准指数推高14%的上涨行情。与此同时，美股已显 露走弱迹象，劳动力市场的韧性也愈发受到质疑。 中国基金报记者 泰勒 美国政府关门之后，美股三大指数盘前全线下跌。 截至发稿，标普500指数期货下跌0.6%，纳斯达克100指数期货下跌0.75%。追踪波动率的 Cboe VIX期货一度走高至18上方。 【导读】 美国政府停摆推动股市下跌 有研究分析，此次关门可能会把美国失业率从最新的4.3%推升至4.7%。特朗普威胁将对许 多员工实施大规模解雇而非无薪休假，从而加剧长期经济阵痛的风险。 Truist汇编的数据表明，历史上股市对政府关门总体反应平淡：平均变动不大。但短期内，依 赖政府收入的国防承包商与咨询公司，以及可能因联邦雇员公务与休闲出行减少而受影响的 航空公司，面临更高的波动风险。 BCA Research的Matt Gertken指出，若关门时间延长，与经济健康度密切相关的工业与金 融等板块将面临压力，且痛感可能扩散。 花旗在周二给客户的报告中强调："关门持续时间是关键。关门越久，股票往往越走弱，而利 率（债券）往往走强。" 历史上股市往往能"安然度过"政府关门，但这一次 ...

Core Points - The UK labor market is continuing to slow down, with employee wages rising by 4.8% year-on-year from May to July, down from 5% in the previous quarter [1] - There is a significant decline in labor demand across various industries, with 9 out of 18 industrial categories experiencing reduced demand [1] - The unemployment rate has reached 4.7%, the highest level in four years, indicating a slowdown in hiring momentum [1] Group 1: Labor Market Trends - The UK labor market has been experiencing a prolonged slowdown due to both cyclical economic factors and structural issues related to skill shortages [2] - Approximately 73% of surveyed companies believe that rising labor costs pose a significant threat to the competitiveness of the UK labor market [2] - The increase in labor costs is attributed to rising national insurance contributions and minimum wage hikes, costing businesses over £24 billion annually [2] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Stricter regulations post-Brexit have made it more challenging for industries reliant on EU labor, such as hospitality and agriculture, to recruit suitable employees [3] - The Employment Rights Bill, which expands employee rights, is perceived by 78% of businesses as a potential hindrance to economic growth and investment [3] - Over 86% of respondents indicated that unfair dismissal rights could lead to increased legal challenges during the probationary period, prompting employers to be more cautious in hiring [3] Group 3: Skills Mismatch - Despite a soft labor market, many skill-intensive sectors are struggling to find qualified talent, with 76% of companies facing recruitment difficulties in Q1 [4] - The construction industry is particularly affected, with 76% of firms unable to find the necessary skilled workers, and 84% acknowledging a severe skills shortage [4] - The UK construction sector needs to recruit 239,300 new employees by 2029 to meet government housing targets [4] Group 4: Economic Implications - The interplay of insufficient labor demand and structural skill shortages is leading to a potential decline in wage growth, which may fall to around 4% by the end of the year [1][4] - The ongoing issues in the labor market are expected to contribute to further slowdowns in the coming months, posing challenges for the Bank of England in managing inflation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is beginning to overlook weak labor data, with expectations for stock prices to accelerate again next year [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are optimistic that the recent slowdown in the labor market will be temporary [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further support the stock market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - A cooling labor market is seen as a "tailwind" for corporate profits [1] - The relationship between labor costs and profit margins is highlighted, indicating that a 100 basis point change in labor cost growth will impact S&P 500 earnings per share by 0.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The August employment report indicates a significant slowdown in job growth since the beginning of the year, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating future discussions on rate cuts [1][3]. Employment Data Summary - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The June employment data was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs. The net job loss in the latest report was 21,000 [6]. - Over the past three months, the average monthly job growth in the private sector was 29,000, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began. The average job growth over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. Labor Market Insights - The June job growth marked the end of a 53-month streak of monthly non-farm employment growth, the second-longest on record, significantly shorter than the 113-month streak that ended with the COVID-19 pandemic [9]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [10]. Wage Growth Analysis - The comprehensive weekly wage index, a good monthly indicator of nominal income growth, rose by 4.4% year-over-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle. The three-month annualized growth rate was revised down from 4.6% to 2.4% [13]. Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate in August, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324%. Federal Reserve officials previously projected that the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [15].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job growth has significantly slowed down since the beginning of the year, as indicated by the August non-farm employment report, which shows a clear decline in new job additions [1][5]. Group 1: Employment Data - In August, U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs, with the private sector contributing 38,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021 [5]. - The job growth data for June was revised downwards, showing a decrease of 13,000 jobs, while July's data was revised upwards from 73,000 to 79,000 jobs [5]. - Over the past three months, the private sector averaged 29,000 new jobs per month, marking the lowest increase since the pandemic began [6]. - The average number of new jobs in the private sector over the past six months has slowed to 67,000 [6]. - The number of permanent job losses slightly increased in August, but the rate has remained stable this year, at just above 1.1% of the labor force [9]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in the upcoming meeting, complicating discussions about future rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chair Powell indicated that if labor market data shows a slowdown, the Fed will proceed with planned rate cuts, reflecting a shift in the balance of risks [2][4]. - The comprehensive weekly wage index rose by 4.4% year-on-year in August, marking a new low for this cycle, with a three-month annualized growth rate declining from 3.2% to 2.4% [11]. - The unemployment rate, calculated without rounding, increased from 4.248% in July to 4.324% in August, with Fed officials previously predicting it would rise to 4.5% in the fourth quarter [14].

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,553 after a slight pullback, with a previous close at $3,545.63, down 0.4% [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, impacting gold prices [1] - A weak labor market is increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, which supports gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.16% to 98.28, putting pressure on gold prices as a stronger dollar reduces gold's attractiveness to holders of other currencies [1] - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 2-year yield down 2.4 basis points to 3.59% and the 10-year yield down 4.4 basis points to 4.167%, both hitting four-month lows [1] - The flattening yield curve, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields narrowing to 58 basis points, often precedes Fed rate cuts [1] Market Sentiment - Gold prices have declined due to profit-taking by traders after a strong rally, with many investors cashing in at high points [2] - Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and reflecting a cooling labor market, which has led to cautious market sentiment [2] - The ADP National Employment Report indicated only 54,000 private sector jobs were added in August, significantly below the expected 65,000, further supporting the view of a slowing labor market [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now close to 100%, up from 87% a week prior, driven by the increasing likelihood of economic slowdown [4] Technical Analysis - The daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a temporary pause in the upward trend, but the overall bullish structure remains intact [7] - Short-term price movements have seen gold prices rise from $3,320 to a peak of $3,578, with recent fluctuations testing support around $3,511 [7] - Traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, with potential trading ranges identified between $3,530 and $3,560 [8]

Group 1 - The US dollar index is experiencing narrow fluctuations, currently at 98.14, with a slight decline of 0.14%, but has seen a cumulative increase of 0.4% this week, indicating potential for a second consecutive week of gains [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly rose by 8,000 to 237,000, exceeding market expectations of 230,000, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [1] - The yields on US Treasury bonds have declined across all maturities, with the 10-year yield dropping by 2.1 basis points to 4.19% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.60%, reflecting ongoing fiscal concerns globally [1] Group 2 - The market is now pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the upcoming meeting on September 17, a significant increase from 89% a week prior [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated that pressures in the labor market remain a key reason supporting the case for a rate cut [1] - The US, European, and Japanese bond markets have stabilized following a reduction in fiscal concerns, with the US 2-year Treasury yield dropping to 3.583%, the lowest since May [2]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is trading around $3556.29, with a slight increase of 0.15% as of the latest report, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - Recent data shows an unexpected increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S., reaching 237,000, which is above market expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in the labor market [2] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated that labor market pressures remain a significant reason for supporting interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in September now nearly 100% [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong upward momentum after a period of adjustment, successfully reaching previously set bullish target prices [3] - Despite a recent failure to maintain upward momentum, the overall bullish sentiment remains intact as long as prices do not fall below the 5-day moving average [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3700 and $4000, while support levels are at $3500 and $3447, providing potential entry points for investors [3]