Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists remain bullish on the S&P 500 index, projecting it could rise to 7,200 points by mid-next year, supported by corporate earnings recovery and easing policy uncertainty [1] Earnings Outlook - The range of earnings revisions has expanded to an unprecedented level, with positive operating leverage significantly boosting their non-PMI earnings model [1] - After a prolonged period of negative or stagnant growth, the median growth rate of stock EPS has turned positive [1] Market Risks - There is a contradiction between the lagging weak labor market data and the Federal Reserve's policy response, which may not meet market expectations for speed, posing short-term risks [1]

与2025年第一季度相比，就业人数增长0.6%，失业人数下降0.3%，劳动力总量增 长0.5%，就业率上升0.3%，失业率下降0.1%；相较于2024年同期，就业人数增长 1.0%，失业人数下降4.6%，劳动力总量增长0.1%，就业率增长0.4%；失业率下降 0.7%。 从性别结构看：经济活动人口中男性55.8万人（占比61.2%），女性35.5万人（占 比38.8%）；就业人口中男性49.6万人（占比63.6%），女性28.4万人（占比36.4%）； 失业人口中男性6.2万人（占比46.9%），女性7万人（占比53.1%）。（驻波黑使馆经商 处） （原标题：波黑联邦拥有184.7万适龄劳动力，经济活动人口占比49.4%） 波黑国家台9月12日报道。根据波黑联邦统计局发布的《2025年二季度劳动力调查 报告》，波黑联邦适龄劳动力人口达184.7万人，其中经济活动人口91.3万人（占比 49.4%），非劳动力人口93.4万人（占比50.6%）。在全部适龄劳动力中，就业人口78.1 万人（占比42.3%），失业人口13.2万人（占比7.2%）。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a 25-basis point rate cut following disappointing labor market data, with August payrolls showing only 22,000 jobs added compared to the expected 75,000, marking the weakest performance since 2010 [1][2][7] - The labor market data indicates a cooling in wage growth, with the quits rate suggesting a decline toward 3%, which further supports the case for rate cuts [2][3] - The market is now debating the extent of the rate cuts, with some traders considering a potential 50-basis point cut, although a series of 25-basis point cuts is the base case [3][7] Impact on Crypto Market - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to create a favorable environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as lower rates typically enhance investor appetite for such assets [3][5] - Recent fund flows into crypto investment products show $338 million in inflows, although the pattern remains volatile, indicating cautious investor sentiment [4] - A confirmed dovish pivot from the Fed could encourage investors to increase their positions in digital assets more decisively [4][5] Broader Market Implications - The current economic environment illustrates that digital assets are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors similar to equities, bonds, and commodities [5] - If the Fed follows through with the expected rate cuts, cryptocurrencies could emerge as significant beneficiaries, serving both as risk assets and long-term value stores in investment portfolios [5][7]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially rising by $50 to reach a historical high before dropping by $50, erasing previous gains and potentially testing the $3500 level again [1][6][7] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of global debt crises and disappointing U.S. job vacancy data, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, benefiting gold [8][9] - The gold market has shown a strong upward trend, breaking through historical highs after four months of consolidation, with potential targets set at $3600 and support levels at $3510 and $3470 [7][8] Group 2 - The labor market data, including corporate layoffs and unemployment claims, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, impacting gold investment strategies [9] - The current market environment emphasizes the importance of precise entry and exit points for gold investments, with a focus on risk management to maximize profit opportunities [9] - A trading team with over ten years of experience claims to achieve a high accuracy rate of 85% or more in gold trading, highlighting the potential for significant profit margins [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates in July, but there are significant internal divisions regarding future rate cuts [1] - The absence of Fed Governor Kugler during the meeting raised concerns about the internal disagreements within the Fed, especially after his resignation announcement [1] - The voting results showed that out of 11 committee members, 9 voted to keep rates unchanged, indicating a majority support for the current stance [1] Group 2 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that the Fed may need to cut rates more than twice if the labor market weakens significantly [1] - President Trump expressed satisfaction with the Fed's decision, as a potential rate cut could align with his goal of lower interest rates, despite concerns about its impact on his approval ratings [2] - The dollar index is currently in a long-term bearish trend but is in a bottoming phase, with resistance at the 100-point level [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic and inflation data released last night were resilient, putting continuous pressure on precious metal prices. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 100.01. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and in line with the previous value. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The Chicago PMI in July was 47.1, significantly higher than the expected 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2]. - Powell's stance in the interest rate meeting was hawkish. He believed that the subsequent monetary policy path depends on economic data, emphasizing the importance of "seizing the right timing." The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's easing policy after the meeting. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only in the October meeting. The Fed's monetary policy stance has turned hawkish, and precious metal prices will face strong short - term correction pressure. Given the uncertainty of subsequent employment data and the stances of key voting members, it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8662 - 9290 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Price Changes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 770.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.37% to 8935.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.13% to 3344.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% to 36.78 dollars/ounce [2]. - Au(T + D) fell 0.38% to 766.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) fell 2.25% to 8960.00 yuan/kilogram. London gold fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Gold - Related Data - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.43% to 3342.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume fell 22.67% to 154,600 lots, the open interest rose 9.12% to 489,400 lots, and the inventory rose 0.42% to 1203 tons [6]. - LBMA gold: The closing price fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract fell 0.45% to 770.28 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 27.56% to 324,300 lots, the open interest rose 1.32% to 429,800 lots, the inventory rose 6.52% to 35.64 tons, and the settled funds flowed in by 0.86% to 52.966 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Silver - Related Data - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 1.04% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, the open interest rose 1.29% to 173,700 lots, and the inventory rose 0.17% to 15,714 tons [6]. - LBMA silver: The closing price fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 2.00% to 9008.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 65.29% to 1,394,000 lots, the open interest fell 4.58% to 797,400 lots, the inventory fell 0.01% to 1208.03 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 6.49% to 19.394 billion yuan [6]. 3.4 Other Market Data - The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.37%, and TIPS rose 1.02% to 1.98%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 100.0489, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545 [4]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.74% to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6339.39, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.03% to 21,122.45, and the VIX Index rose 8.01% to 16.72. The London FTSE 100 fell 0.05% to 9132.81, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to 41,069.82 [4]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spread Data (July 31, 2025) - Gold: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.41 yuan/gram (14.75 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.16 yuan/gram (4.98 dollars/ounce) [50]. - Silver: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 463.30 yuan/kilogram (2.00 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 461.74 yuan/kilogram (1.99 dollars/ounce) [50].

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently at $3340.27 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.14%, reflecting a rise of $37 [1] - Market participants are awaiting new clues from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] - The European Central Bank's central bank forum is taking place from June 30 to July 2, attracting attention from investors regarding speeches from major central bank leaders [1] Group 2 - The market currently estimates a 20% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, and a 77% probability for September [1] - If Powell indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation outlook, it could increase bets on Fed easing and lead to a further decline in the dollar, potentially boosting gold prices [1] - Conversely, any hawkish or cautious remarks from Powell could exacerbate the recent downward trend in gold prices [1] Group 3 - Attention is also focused on U.S. trade negotiations as the July 9 deadline approaches [2] - The JOLTS job openings report, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with economists expecting 7.3 million job openings for May, down from 7.391 million in April [2] - If gold closes above the 50-day moving average of $3320 per ounce, it may gain momentum towards the 21-day moving average of $3350 per ounce, with the next Fibonacci level at $3377 per ounce [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easing period. If there is marginal deterioration in these two aspects, it will drive up the price of gold in the short - term. If they remain stable, the market risk appetite may not decline significantly, and gold may need time to adjust and accumulate strength [1][3]. - The gold - silver ratio fluctuates around the 90 level. The short - term recovery of market risk appetite supports the silver price, but the decline of the gold price drags down the silver price. Without the resonance of their attributes, silver is difficult to have excess performance and is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short - term [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump is dissatisfied with the US - Japan auto trade deficit and may impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The negotiation deadline is July 9. The Japanese negotiation representative extended the stay in the US, but the US has not unified its stance. Japan's holding of over one trillion US Treasuries may be a bargaining chip. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote US - Canada trade negotiations, showing its dependence on the US as US - Canada trade accounts for 20% of Canada's GDP [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the tariff issue may return to the level of April 2. A wave of trade agreements is expected to be signed intensively in the last week before July 9. He also pointed out that no inflation pressure caused by tariffs has been observed, but there may be a one - time price adjustment [2]. - Germany's preliminary June CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and was flat month - on - month (expected 0.2%, May final 0.1%). The preliminary harmonized CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and increased 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, May final 0.2%) [2]. Price Logic - The price of precious metals continued to fluctuate and adjust during the day. The recent rise in risk appetite has put pressure on the gold price. Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has slightly increased, it is difficult to drive the gold price significantly. The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [34, 38] [3].

Core Viewpoint - Recent weak labor market data may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a shift towards a more accommodative policy stance, although it may still be too early for such a change [1] Group 1: Labor Market Data - The employment situation remains highly unstable, with questionable job data and significant revisions underway [1] - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may delay any policy changes until July, indicating a cautious approach to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, is approaching a potential turning point in its policy, but immediate changes are not anticipated [1] - There is a possibility that the Federal Reserve may postpone addressing the labor market issues for another month, similar to past budgetary practices in Washington [1]

Market Overview - Optimism in Wall Street has increased due to positive U.S. employment data, overshadowing uncertainties in trade negotiations [1] - Asian markets have seen a rise in investor risk appetite following a clear political situation in South Korea [1] - European and Asian stock markets are generally up, contributing to MSCI global stock index reaching a historical high [1][3] U.S. Employment Data - U.S. ADP employment numbers for May increased by 37,000, falling short of the expected 114,000 [10] - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped by approximately 20 points, and U.S. stock futures declined [10][15] Stock Market Performance - The KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 2.7%, entering a technical bull market, with a 20% increase from its April low [5] - European stocks showed slight gains, with the DAX index up by about 1% and the CAC 40 index rising by 0.7% [13] - U.S. stock index futures were mixed, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down by approximately 0.1% [2][16] Bond and Commodity Markets - U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield decreasing by about 5 basis points [7] - Spot gold prices saw a slight increase, while oil prices remained nearly unchanged [9][10] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrency prices were mixed, with Bitcoin experiencing a minor decline of about 0.3% [8]