国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短期震荡市 | 供应 | 周内浮法无放水、点火、引板产线，周产量平稳运行。截至20250925，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/日），其中在 | | --- | --- | | | 产225条，冷修停产71条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为16.02万吨，与18日持平。周内浮法产线运行稳定，无点火，放水浮法产线。 | | 需求 | 截至20250915，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值10.5天，环比+1.0%，同比+2.9%。9月至今，全国各大区多数深加工订单仍未有明显好转， | | | 多数承接仍以散单为主，多数排单天数7天左右，整体利润依旧偏低；少数中大型企业承接的工程类项目部分依旧可以排单20-60天不等。 | | | 截止到20250925，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5935.5万重箱，环比-155.3万重箱，环比-2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual ratings for various commodities: - **Short - term Rebound, Medium - term Weakness**: p - Xylene, PTA [2][4] - **1 - 5 Month Spread Reverse Arbitrage**: MEG [2][4] - **Oscillating Weakly**: Rubber [2][14] - **Oscillating Under Pressure**: Synthetic Rubber, Methanol, Urea [2][18][57] - **Oscillating with Oil, Narrow - range Movement**: Asphalt [2][21] - **Medium - term Oscillating**: LLDPE [2][36] - **Caution for Shorting at Low Levels, Medium - term Oscillating**: PP [2][40] - **Wide - range Oscillating**: Caustic Soda, Pulp, PVC [2][44][50] - **Original Sheet Price Stable**: Glass [2][54] - **Short - term Narrow - range Strong Oscillation**: LPG [2][71] - **Short - term High - level Weak Movement**: Propylene [2][72] - **Short - term Adjustment**: Fuel Oil [2][29] - **Uptrend Interrupted, High - level Oscillation of Spot High - Low Sulfur Spread**: Low - sulfur Fuel Oil [2][29] - **Under Pressure in October; Wide - range Oscillation in December and February**: Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][30] - **Short - term Following Cost Fluctuations, Medium - term Pressure**: Staple Fiber, Bottle Chip [2][33] - **Low - level Oscillation**: Offset Printing Paper [2][34] - **Weak in the Fourth Quarter**: Pure Benzene [2][36] 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. For many commodities, short - term trends are influenced by factors such as oil price movements, policy support for consumption, and cost fluctuations. Medium - term trends are mainly affected by supply - demand fundamentals, including plant maintenance, new capacity launches, and downstream demand changes [12][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity p - Xylene, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: Due to stronger upstream prices, Asian p - xylene rose slightly. PTA profit margins in the Chinese domestic market are negative. MEG prices and trading volumes are provided [7][10] - **Trend and Suggestions**: p - Xylene and PTA are expected to rebound in the short term and be weak in the medium term. MEG is recommended for 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to plant maintenance and restarts, as well as downstream demand changes [12][13] Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Provides futures and spot market data, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating weakly [15] - **Industry News**: The basis of whole - milk rubber and RU main contract widened, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises changed [17] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating under pressure [18] - **Industry News**: The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports declined [19] Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, and inventory rates. The trend is oscillating with oil, narrow - range movement [21] - **Market News**: This week, the domestic asphalt device maintenance volume increased, the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [34] LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is medium - term oscillating [36] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Affected by macro - sentiment, PE is short - term strong. The demand for PE is improving, and the supply pressure may be alleviated in the short term [37] PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is medium - term oscillating [40] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but holiday factors and other uncertainties need attention [41] Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided. The trend is wide - range oscillating [44] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers. The current market is trading the pressure of Shandong spot prices, and the market is wide - range oscillating in the short term [46] Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is wide - range oscillating [51] - **Industry News**: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak futures and stable spot, with a divergence between softwood and hardwood pulp. The demand for downstream products is weak [52] Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The original sheet price is stable [55] - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market prices rise and fall alternately, and the trading atmosphere is tepid [55] Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating under pressure [58] - **Spot News**: This week, the methanol port inventory fluctuates narrowly. The market is under pressure in the short term, but there are expectations of fundamental improvement [60][61] Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The trend is oscillating under pressure [63] - **Industry News**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased this week. Urea is under pressure in the short and medium terms [64][65] Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided. The trend is medium - term bearish [66] - **Spot News**: The concept of anti - involution in the energy - chemical industry is re - proposed, and the cost center moves down, so styrene is short - term weak [67] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The spot market changes little [69] - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is firm, with individual enterprise prices rising. The supply decreases slightly, and the demand is average [69] LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. LPG has short - term narrow - range strong oscillation, and propylene has short - term high - level weak movement [72] - **Market News**: The CP paper prices of propane and butane change. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [76][77] PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided. The trend is wide - range oscillating [78] - **Market Situation Analysis**: Affected by anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, PVC is short - term strong, but the fundamentals are weak, with high supply and inventory [78] Fuel Oil, Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. Fuel oil has short - term adjustment, and the uptrend of low - sulfur fuel oil is interrupted [81] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions change [81] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures market data are provided, including prices, trading volumes, and open interest. The index is under pressure in October and has wide - range oscillation in December and February [83] - **Market Information**: The freight rates of different shipping companies and the exchange rate information are provided [83]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market shows an upward trend due to anti - deflation and anti - involution expectations. The key to disproving the bullish logic lies in the delivery, with the next delivery pressure possibly in the 11 - contract. The time window from late September to the end of October is difficult to disprove the bullish view [4][140]. - From 2022 - 2024, real estate and glass spot markets showed quarterly improvements in the fourth quarter. However, the glass spot price has rarely increased by over 20% during these periods. Exceeding expectations in anti - involution measures is needed to address the current weak basis [4][140]. - From 2025 - 2026, the glass industry will trend towards energy cleaning and electrification, as indicated by policies from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and local environmental protection departments [13][140]. - The soda ash industry has a more severe supply surplus than the glass industry. Its future trend is expected to be similar to that of glass, but it may be weaker during the upward phase and stronger during the downward phase [5][140]. - Currently, bonds and stocks are trading based on the anti - deflation logic. The weak reality of glass and soda ash has to yield to the capital logic. The market will return to the weak - reality delivery logic during the policy - free period in the late fourth quarter [7][140]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Glass Market Outlook - The glass market is expected to be volatile and bullish until facing delivery pressure again. The rise is driven by expectations, while the fall is due to delivery [4]. Bullish and Bearish Logics - **Bearish**: Terminal demand has not improved, real estate transactions are weak, futures are at a significant premium (01 contract is about 200 higher than the spot), and the anti - involution policy for glass is not clear, so significant production cuts may not occur [4]. - **Bullish**: The delivery pressure of the 09 contract has ended, the anti - involution policy may exceed expectations and cannot be disproven in the short term, and real estate and glass spot markets usually improve quarter - on - quarter in the fourth quarter [4]. Points to Note - Before the National Day, there may be a squeeze on virtual positions. The next delivery pressure is expected in the 11 - contract, and the time window from late September to early November is more favorable for bulls [7]. - Inventory in Shahe has decreased by 50% year - on - year, in Hubei by 16.5%, and nationally by 15%. After the end of August, national inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month. In the past three years, the glass industry has mainly reduced inventory in the fourth quarter, limiting the downside of spot prices [7]. - The limit of the forward premium due to warehouse receipt pressure in the past three years is about 200 yuan/ton, and the current spread between the 01 and 11 contracts is 110 yuan/ton [7]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may be a market speculation point, but its real impact is limited [7]. Supply - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,680 tons/day, newly ignited production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13,210 tons/day, potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,790 tons/day, potential old - line复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 9,930 tons, and potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [51][52][53]. - Current in - production capacity is about 160,000 tons/day, with a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021. The net capacity in 2024 decreased by 17,000 tons compared to the beginning - of - year high, but there has been no significant contraction in 2025 [57][58][61]. - The most likely devices to stop production are those ignited before 2017, accounting for 22.5% of the total capacity. Most domestic devices were cold - repaired between 2017 - 2021, accounting for nearly 44% [61]. Price and Profit - Shahe prices are around 1,120 - 1,160 yuan/ton, Hubei prices are around 1,040 - 1,120 yuan/ton, and prices in East China are around 1,220 - 1,320 yuan/ton. Recent spot prices have changed little, with a weakening basis and month - spread [71][72]. - Profits are about 30 yuan/ton for petroleum - coke - fueled devices, - 174 yuan/ton for natural - gas - fueled devices, and 100 yuan/ton for coal - fueled devices [75][79]. Inventory and Spread - Recent transactions have improved slightly, and inventory has declined. Most regions have seen a slowdown in inventory accumulation. Downstream restocking is mainly due to low prices, and terminal demand has not expanded significantly [82][84]. - Comparing the market in the past three years, there has been a high probability of quarter - on - quarter improvement, but the spot price rarely increases by over 20%. The glass industry needs to improve both supply and demand to change the long - term negative feedback [87][88]. - Regional arbitrage shows that prices in different regions are stable, and low - price regions have slightly better transactions than high - price regions [90]. Photovoltaic Glass - The domestic photovoltaic glass market has good overall transactions, with prices fluctuating upward. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is about 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is about 20 yuan/square meter [98][100]. - Production capacity has changed little recently, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. The number of in - production production lines is 408, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 15.34%. The sample inventory days are about 16.13 days, a 12.13% decrease month - on - month [102][104][109]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance devices are gradually resuming production, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The capacity utilization rate is 87.3% (86.2% last week), and the current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 422,000 tons/week [113][115]. - Inventory is about 1.8 million tons, with 76,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.04 million tons of heavy soda ash [120][121]. Price and Profit - Futures have rebounded, and spot traders' quotes have increased slightly, while manufacturers' quotes have changed little. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,210 - 1,400 yuan/ton [129][130]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 54.5 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 36.3 yuan/ton [136]. Market Scenario - The soda ash market is moving towards a weaker situation. Under different demand assumptions (weak, neutral, and optimistic), there are different supply - demand gaps [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The construction of a unified national market is a major decision of the Party Central Committee, with the basic requirement of "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as glass, coal, and steel may be affected by policies and market sentiment, showing different trends [7][8][10] - The market generally anticipates a new round of policy easing due to the characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption" in China's economic data in August [21] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1所长首推 (Director's Top Picks) - **Glass**: The later period may show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Overnight prices rose significantly, and the market's anti - deflation and anti - involution factors resurfaced. Spot sales have improved to some extent. Although there are still bearish factors such as weak real estate, weak basis, and warehouse receipt pressure, these factors are approaching their limits after the 09 delivery. It is not advisable to be overly bearish before the policy is falsified [8][9] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to maintain a strong - trending pattern due to policy expectations and pre - National Day replenishment. The current market shows a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, and prices being strong". The price bottom has emerged, and the price center is expected to gradually rise [10] 3.2商品研究 (Commodity Research) - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Gold shows a downward - revised non - farm employment trend, and silver breaks through and moves upward. The fundamentals of precious metals show various price changes and trading volume fluctuations. Relevant macro - news includes Sino - US consensus on TikTok, antitrust investigations on NVIDIA, and China's economic data release [17][18][21] - **Copper**: Driven by multiple logics, the price is rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are significant mergers and acquisitions and production - related news in the industry [24][26] - **Zinc**: It maintains a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as antitrust investigations on NVIDIA and payment - term commitments by automobile companies [27][28][29] - **Lead**: The decrease in inventory supports the price. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as market expectations of Fed rate cuts [30][31] - **Tin**: It fluctuates within a range. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are various macro - news such as Sino - US consensus on TikTok [33][34][35] - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum fluctuates within a range, alumina rebounds upward, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [37][39] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The contradiction in the smelting end of nickel is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the mining end. Stainless steel prices may fluctuate due to the game between long - and short - term logics. There are industry - related news such as project production starts and environmental violations in Indonesia [40][41][46] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - term demand may exceed expectations, and it shows a volatile pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are industry - related news such as the release of the automobile industry's growth - stabilization plan [47][48][49] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The "anti - involution" sentiment for industrial silicon has fermented again, and the sentiment for polysilicon has reignited, with the futures price likely to continue rising. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about a solar - cell project investment in Xinjiang [50][51][53] - **Iron Ore**: The price shows a volatile and upward - trending pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about China's monetary data [54][55] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment has resurfaced, and both show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news such as the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market and steel production and trade data [58][59][61] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, they show a volatile and upward - trending pattern. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there are news about ferrosilicon and manganese silicide prices and steel production data [62][63][64] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They show a wide - range volatile pattern with repeated expectations. The fundamentals show price and trading volume changes, and there is news about the publication of an important article on the construction of a unified national market [65][66] - **Logs**: They show a repeated volatile pattern [68]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 16 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PVC 基本面数据 01合约期货价格 华东现货价格 基差 1-5月差 4921 4740 -181 -303 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 产业宏观政策气氛向好，国内大宗商品盘面震荡上行，PVC 盘中价格上涨，现货价格表现坚挺；基本面 暂无变化，周内生产企业检修下供应略有减弱，远期长假前终端备货看好，行业库存预期增速继续减缓， PVC 生产成本支撑近期价格坚挺，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 4700-4800 元/吨，乙烯法在 4850-5050 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 市场反通缩、反内卷因素再次兴起，PVC 短期偏强。但从 PVC 基本面看，利润端"以碱补氯"导致 PVC 减产驱动不足，供应端维持高开工，内需方面与地产相关的 PVC 下游制品需求同比仍偏弱，企业备货意愿 低，库存向下游传导不畅，社会库存持续累库。此外，前期大量无风险套利导致 PVC 仓单大幅上升，未来 多头接货压力增大。整体看，PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构难改变， ...

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: September 2, 2025 [1] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for individual commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, PX and asphalt have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; PP, glass, benzene - ethylene, and soda ash have a trend intensity of - 1, suggesting a relatively negative outlook; while most other commodities have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10][21][39][54][66][69] Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene - ethylene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, and pure benzene. The overall market shows a mixed trend with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread trading, 1 - 5 reverse spread trading, and going long on PX and short on EB. The price has limited downside space, and it's advisable to go long on dips before mid - September. An expected increase in supply in September and new PTA production capacity will keep the supply - demand in a tight - balance [5][10] - **PTA**: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner with limited downside. The polyester start - up rate is rising, and PTA is in a de - stocking pattern. The basis and spread are supported, but the factory hedging may suppress the price. Focus on the 11 - contract strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX [11] - **MEG**: The price is in a volatile range, and it's not advisable to chase the long side when the price is above 4550. Suggest going long on PTA and short on MEG. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the port is in a stocking pattern. The overall price support is limited [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It will run in a volatile manner. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is average, resulting in a stalemate in supply - demand and price [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run in a range following the macro - sentiment in the short term. The supply is high, and the inventory pressure is increasing, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][20] Asphalt - The factory inventory is decreasing, and the crude oil price is strong. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed, and the basis and spread have also fluctuated. The domestic asphalt production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [21][34] LLDPE - In the short term, it is weak, and in the medium term, it will be in a volatile market. The PE demand is improving due to the peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry, but the commodity sentiment has declined recently, affecting the futures price. The supply pressure may be relieved in the medium term [35][36] PP - In the short term, it will be volatile, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. The short - term demand has improved, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, but the cost uncertainty and policy factors should also be considered [39][40] Caustic Soda - It will have a wide - range volatile movement. The export is the main factor restricting the price increase, while the domestic demand is stable, and the alumina production may drive the domestic 50 - alkali market. The market pressure will ease after the 09 - contract warehouse receipt cancellation [43][45] Pulp - It will run in a volatile manner. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, with high port inventory and limited downstream procurement. The foreign quotation and cost support limit the downside space [49][52] Glass - The original - sheet price is stable. The futures price has increased, but the spot market is weak, with the main - producing area's price slightly decreasing and the overall trading being average [54][55] Methanol - It will run in a volatile manner. In the short term, the fundamental contradiction is large, with high port inventory and upstream selling pressure. In the medium term, it may enter a range - bound pattern due to policy support [58][61] Urea - It will run in a volatile manner in the short term. The fundamental pressure is large, and the domestic demand is weak, but the policy uncertainty makes the market investment conservative. The price has pressure above 1800 - 1820 yuan/ton, and the downward space is also limited [63][64] Benzene - Ethylene - It is bearish in the medium term. In the short term, it will be volatile. The market is in a situation of long - short confrontation, with the industry expecting the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the port inventory is increasing, and the fundamental pressure is large [66][67] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The price is slightly declining, the device operation is stable, and the downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing on demand [68][69] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply and demand remain loose, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The CP paper - cargo prices have increased, and there are many domestic device - maintenance plans [72][77] - **Propylene**: The spot price is still supported, but there is a risk of decline. The spread between different regions and contracts has changed, and the start - up rates of related industries have also fluctuated [72] PVC - The price trend is under pressure. The supply is high, the domestic and foreign trade demands are not improved, and the inventory is increasing. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the incentive for production reduction [79] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It will have a narrow - range volatile movement with a weak trend. The futures and spot prices have declined, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts have changed [80][81] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session opened higher, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the foreign market continued to decline [80][81] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It will have a volatile movement. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the freight - rate indices of European and US - West routes have shown different trends. The current - period freight rates of different carriers on the European line are also provided [83]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 28 日 PP：中期震荡市 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 7021 | -0.72% | 185,187 | 7338 | | | | 昨日价差 | | | 前日价差 | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -141 | | | -136 | | | 01-05合约价差 | -14 | | | -20 | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6870 - | 7020 | 6880 - | 7020 | | | 华东 | 6880 - | 7050 | 6910 - | 7050 | | | 华南 | 6840 - | 708 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term demand for PP has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has also rebounded significantly recently. The market has stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded due to various unconfirmed information on the supply - side policy. In the future, as the maintenance devices gradually resume production and new supply - side production capacity expands, the supply pressure will further increase. Although the cost side still has great uncertainty and anti - deflation and anti - involution are policy directions, the short - term market is slightly stronger, but the long - term trend still faces significant pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 futures was 7046, with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 183,034, and the open interest increased by 5561. The 01 - contract basis was - 136 (previous day: - 154), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 20 (previous day: - 15) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the North China region, the spot price was 6880 - 7020 yuan/ton (previous day: 6900 - 7030); in the East China region, it was 6910 - 7050 yuan/ton (previous day: 6920 - 7050); in the South China region, it was 6870 - 7090 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day) [1]. [Spot News] - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight loosening, with some prices dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The morning futures' oscillating trend provided no clear guidance for the spot market. Most upstream manufacturers' prices remained stable, and traders' costs changed little. In the afternoon, as the futures market declined, holders actively sold, and some quotes dropped slightly. Downstream buyers mainly made low - price and just - in - time purchases, and market inquiries and transactions were weaker than the previous day [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers insights into multiple energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It analyzes the supply - demand balance, price trends, and market conditions of each commodity, providing investment suggestions such as positive spreads, short - term or mid - term trading strategies, and warnings about potential risks [2][8][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, with a short - term upward trend. Positive spreads are recommended, and there are suggestions like long PTA and short PX (11 contract). The price of PX increased on the 26th, and there are uncertainties in the Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan [4][6][8] - **PTA**: With the new Sanfangxiang PTA device put into production and the Dushan Energy device under maintenance, positive spreads are recommended. The demand is in a seasonal improvement phase [4][8][9] - **MEG**: The short - term trend is upward, and 9 - 1 positive spreads are recommended. However, there is significant pressure above 4600. Import arrivals are low, and port inventories are decreasing [4][9] 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to fluctuate. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises increased. The overall macro - sentiment and policy expectations have an impact on the market [10][11][13] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are neutral, and it follows the macro - market. In the short - term, it is strong, and in the mid - term, it fluctuates within a range. The overall macro - sentiment and policy expectations support the price [14][16] 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. The domestic asphalt production in September is expected to increase, and the factory and social inventories have different trends [17][31] 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is in a range - bound state. The demand is improving, mainly due to the peak - season stocking of the agricultural film industry. The supply pressure may be alleviated in the short - term, and the inventory is relatively low [34][35] 3.6 PP - PP is in a mid - term oscillating market. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. However, the supply pressure will increase in the future [38][39] 3.7 Caustic Soda - The near - month warehouse receipts and exports suppress the caustic soda market. The domestic demand is stable, but the short - term pressure from warehouse receipts and weak exports needs attention [42][43] 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to fluctuate. The market is divided, with high port inventories and weak demand suppressing the price. Attention should be paid to inventory data and downstream demand [46][47] 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market price is under pressure, and the high - inventory pressure needs to be digested [50][51] 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is in a short - term weak and mid - term oscillating pattern. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of some devices and the impact of freight [53][55] 3.11 Urea - Urea is in a short - term weak state. After the export policy is determined, the market speculation weakens. In the mid - term, the price may fluctuate due to macro - sentiment and policy expectations [59][62] 3.12 Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the mid - term. The downstream raw material inventory is at a medium - high level, and the short - term market is oscillating [63][64] 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The market is expected to be weakly stable and oscillating, with low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream enterprises [65] 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The cost of crude oil is weakening. There are changes in futures prices, trading volumes, and spreads. Attention should be paid to the PDH and MTBE operating rates [67] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, and it oscillates in the short - term [67] 3.15 PVC - PVC still faces pressure. The supply is at a high level, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The export price is under competitive pressure [75] 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: New warehouse receipts have emerged, and the market has turned bearish [78] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has reversed and declined, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [78] 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It may continue to have weak oscillations. The futures prices have declined, and the freight rates of relevant routes have decreased [80]

2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯：趋势偏强，正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：装置计划外停车，正套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：区间运行 | 6 | | 沥青：原油略强，裂解愈弱 | 8 | | LLDPE：区间震荡 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱：偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：区间震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：仍在区间震荡内，但上方压力逐步增加 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：压缩利润 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：宏观情绪溢价支撑，进口成本预期上涨 | 24 | | 丙烯：供需收紧，价格存支撑 | 24 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，短线转强 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：偏弱怕盘整，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧 ...