[ T able_StockInfo] 2025 年 07 月 11 日 证券研究报告•2025 年中报业绩快报点评 珠江啤酒（002461）食品饮料 目标价：——元（6 个月） 买入 （维持） 当前价：11.26 元 Q2 利润维持较快增长，97 纯生势能强劲 | [Table_MainProfit] 指标/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（亿元） | 57.31 | 62.40 | 68.23 | 74.43 | | 增长率 | 6.56% | 8.88% | 9.34% | 9.09% | | 归属母公司净利润（亿元） | 8.10 | 10.16 | 12.21 | 14.22 | | 增长率 | 29.95% | 25.42% | 20.15% | 16.48% | | 每股收益 EPS（元） | 0.37 | 0.46 | 0.55 | 0.64 | | 净资产收益率 ROE | 7.85% | 9.24% | 10.40% | 11.24% | | PE | 31 | 25 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth potential of Zhujiang Beer, particularly with the rapid expansion of its 97 Pure Draft product since its launch in 2019, which has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 99% from 2.79 million tons in 2019 to 22.07 million tons in 2022 [7][17] - Despite concerns about the slowdown in the premium beer segment, regional beers, particularly in the 8-10 yuan price range, continue to show strong growth, with Zhujiang Beer positioned favorably in the Guangdong market [15][17] - The report anticipates that Zhujiang Beer will achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.45, 0.56, and 0.67 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a projected EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% from 2025 to 2027 [7][8] Company Overview - Zhujiang Beer, established in 1985, is a major state-owned enterprise in the beer brewing and cultural industry, with a brand value of 18.8 billion yuan [19][22] - The company has a strong market presence in Guangdong, which is the second-largest beer-producing province in China, with a beer production of 4.54 million tons in 2023 [16][19] Industry Review - The report notes that regional beers have outperformed leading brands since 2021, with Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Chongqing Beer showing CAGRs of 4.8%, 4.3%, and 3.7% respectively, while leading brands like China Resources Beer and Tsingtao Brewery have seen CAGRs of only 0.4% and 0.5% [15][41] - The overall beer industry faced challenges in 2024, with a reported decline in production of 8.42% from March to December [41][47] Investment Highlights - Zhujiang Beer is expected to benefit from its strong positioning in the Guangdong market, where the economic environment and consumer demographics favor beer consumption [16][75] - The company is actively expanding its product line with the introduction of the 980ml Zhujiang Original Draft, which emphasizes cultural branding and competitive pricing [18][75]

A股酒类板块首份上半年业绩预告交出亮眼答卷。当啤酒行业的增长引擎在高端化迷局中逐渐失速，燕 京啤酒却继续在2025年盛夏抛出一份抢眼数据：7月7日发布的预告数据显示，1-6月燕京啤酒归属于上 市公司股东的净利润预计达10.62亿至11.37亿元，同比激增 40%-50%。 这份成绩单勾勒出的品牌复兴轨迹，也是行业转型的侧影：连续三年保持半年报利润增速超 40%，源 于传统企业"刮骨疗毒"式的改革破局；大单品燕京U8在8-10元价格带精准卡位，踩中了高端化失速后市 场的真实需求；而今年跨界汽水的试探，更暴露了啤酒巨头寻找新增长极的迫切。 半年净利超去年全年 2025年以来，燕京啤酒交出的一系列业绩数据引发市场关注，今年上半年净利润更是首次突破10亿元大 关。5月以来，公司已连续迎来券商机构密集调研；在这份亮眼业绩数据发布后，燕京啤酒股价在7月8 日、9日连续飘红。 连续三年利润高速增长，正在改写市场对这家老牌啤酒企业的固有认知。2024年，燕京啤酒实现营业收 入146.67亿元，同比增长3.20%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润10.56亿元，同比增长63.74%。而在此前 的2022年及2023年，其归属于上市公 ...

中国啤酒市场正在经历一场前所未有的高端化革命。2022年初，青岛啤酒推出超高端新品"一世传奇"，标价1399元/瓶(1.5升)，价格直逼53度500毫升飞天 茅台的市场指导价。令人意外的是，这款千元啤酒现在的销量相当可观。 青岛啤酒董事长黄克兴在业绩说明会上透露："在今年一季度，公司的百年之旅、百年鸿运、一世传奇三款超高端产品销量近20万瓶，目前一世传奇产品 仍然供不应求。"这并非孤例，早在2021年上半年，华润雪花啤酒就推出了超高端新品"醴"，定价999元/盒(2瓶)，单瓶价格接近500元。百威啤酒也不甘落 后，在电商平台上线了"百威大师传奇"798ml虎年限量版啤酒，售价高达1588元/瓶。 这些超高端啤酒产品的集中涌现，标志着中国啤酒行业从价格战转向价值战的战略转型。青岛啤酒自2018年以来就多次对旗下产品提价，纯生、经典、白 啤等售价提升5%-13%不等，随后又加快了奥古特、IPA、琥珀拉格等产品的发展步伐。上线千元啤酒后，青啤以"提价+产品结构升级"的方法推动高端化 已然成为战略明牌。华润雪花啤酒同样在2018年开始向高端转型，推出了勇闯天涯SuperX、匠心营造、马尔斯绿等一系列中高端啤酒品牌，2 ...

Group 1 - The recent wave of executive changes in the liquor industry reflects common challenges such as pressure for high-end transformation, intensified market competition, and rational consumption upgrades [1][2] - Key executives from major liquor companies like Jinzhongzi Liquor, China Resources Beer, and Yanghe Co. have stepped down, indicating a strategic shift in response to industry pressures [1][2] - Jinzhongzi Liquor has reported a cumulative loss of 467 million yuan over the past three years, highlighting the financial struggles faced by the company [2] Group 2 - China Resources Beer’s white liquor business generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.97%, but fell short of the initial growth target of over 30% [3] - Yanghe Co. experienced a revenue decline of 12.83% in 2024, with net profit dropping by 33.37%, indicating significant performance challenges [3][4] - The new leadership in these companies is expected to navigate through the current deep adjustment period in the industry and find new balances in brand value, channel health, and consumer relationships [1][4] Group 3 - Zhao Chunwu, the acting chairman of China Resources Beer, emphasizes the ongoing trend of high-end beer consumption while acknowledging shifts in consumer behavior towards more rational purchasing decisions [4][5] - The liquor industry is advised to focus on systematic strategic layouts and organizational capabilities for future development, rather than relying solely on individual executives [5] - Yanghe Co. is encouraged to enhance its marketing strategies and optimize talent management to stabilize its market position and drive growth in key regions [6]

文 | 酒业内参 张奥 近日，华润啤酒发布董事会主席侯孝海离任公告。公告称，侯孝海因有意投入更多时间于个 人安排，已确认与董事会之间并无意见分歧。 离职前，这位将华润"翻江倒海"的一号位，大手笔套现 2600 万港元，减持幅度高达 92% 。同时，他的离开也给华润啤酒留下了一对"烂摊子"。 此前，华润啤酒发布了 2024 年业绩报告。报告显示，公司全年营收 386.35 亿，同比下 降 3.57% ；净利润 47.39 亿，同比下滑 8.03% 。这是华润啤酒七年来首次出现营收、 净利润双降的情况。 除了主营啤酒业务承压外，被寄予厚望的金沙也让其吃了个大亏。作为华润啤酒唯一并表的 白酒业务，营业额 21.49 亿元，同比仅增长 4% 。对比收购时 123 亿元的估值，其市盈 率已从巅峰期的 20 倍跌至不足 5 倍。 主业不振，跨界"饮酒"失利，"一地鸡毛"的华润啤酒究竟该何去何从？ 高端化未完成， 主业啤酒已承压 公开信息显示，侯孝海 2001 年加入华润雪花啤酒，期间分别担任过销售发展总监、市场 总监、区域公司总经理、营销中心总经理、总经理、 CEO 、董事会主席等职位。 任期内，侯孝海主导了被评为" 2 ...

（文/朱道义 编辑/张广凯） 800亿规模的啤酒巨头，其灵魂老帅突然决定"隐身"离场。 6月27日，华润啤酒（股票代码：00291.HK）发布公告称，董事会主席侯孝海"因有意投入更多时间于个人安排"，决定辞去该公司董事会主席职务，且不再 担任董事会辖下财务委员会主席、执行委员会以及购股权总务委员会成员职务，自今年6月27日召开的董事会会议结束时起生效。 侯孝海 侯孝海辞任后，华润啤酒董事会主席职位将暂时悬空，该公司执行董事及总裁赵春武将暂时承担过渡期内董事会主席的工作及责任。同时，华润啤酒正在物 色具备适当专业资格或相关专长的合适人选。 而回顾中国啤酒行业的发展历程，侯孝海是一个无法绕开的关键人物。在华润啤酒任职期间，他曾一手主导了啤酒业务的高端化转型，缔造了让公司登顶行 业龙头的高光时刻；但也因大手笔收购白酒业务，其表现最终却不尽如人意，而陷入争议。 对于侯孝海接下来的去向，据《红星资本局》报道，并非如市场传言"去喜力啤酒担任高管"或"回成都创业"，而是可能会去当教师。不过，个人的转身或许 尚还容易，但华润800亿的啤酒巨舰未来将驶向何方？背后的百亿白酒棋局又是谁来续招？这都是牵动市场神经的重点话题。 凭借 ...

啤酒行业在2024年经历深度调整周期：前三个季度持续承受需求收缩压力(春节后及7-8月两次需求冷却 周期)，叠加极端天气扰动旺季销售，渠道去杠杆化形成"需求-库存-资金"三重压力，2024年二至三季度 进入行业低谷。转机始于2024年三季度末，政策拐点显现，消费券精准投放与居民收入预期改善促使餐 饮渠道闭店率边际企稳。龙头企业通过资产负债表修复(24H2行业库存水位降至历史低位)与经营策略前 瞻性调整(渠道结构向非现饮转型加速，数字化零售布局深化)，成功构建新增长极。 后续来看，短期内，随着啤酒消费旺季来临，叠加宏观政策传导至终端消费场景改善，渠道补库周期与 即饮场景恢复形成共振，预计销量回升具备充分韧性。中长期内，消费刺激政策持续推进值得期待，餐 饮消费券等刺激更为直接有效，啤酒消费将直接受益。此外，随着经济触底刺激政策频出，啤酒高端化 仍然具备想象空间，价格带升级仍大有可为。 食品饮料ETF(515170)跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高壁 垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较于 其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资 ...

新京报讯(记者王子扬)6月27日，港股上市啤酒企业华润啤酒(控股)有限公司(简称"华润啤酒")发布公告 称，侯孝海因有意投入更多时间于个人安排，决定辞任执行董事、董事会主席，且不再担任董事会辖下 财务委员会主席，执行委员会、购股权总务委员会成员。侯孝海已确认，与董事会之间并无意见分歧。 公开资料显示，2001年，侯孝海通过社会化招聘进入华润雪花啤酒。他在华润雪花期间，经历了华润雪 花从初创发展到全国第一的各阶段。2008年至2015年，华润雪花啤酒全国发展、做大精制酒阶段，侯孝 海从总部管理调到区域市场；2009年至2010年，制定贵州五年发展规划，奠定组织文化和业务管理基 础；2012年至2016年，在四川工作期间，侯孝海恢复发展四川市场，重新做到占当地70%的份额。 在本次公告中，华润啤酒表示，侯孝海辞任后，董事会主席职位将暂时悬空，直至公司委任合适继任 人。公司执行董事及总裁赵春武将暂时承担过渡期间董事会主席的工作及责任。公司具有健全的管治架 构，董事会认为，该辞任将不会影响集团正常营运。截至本公告日期，董事会运作正常，集团业务营运 亦有序开展。公司现正物色具备适当专业资格或相关专长之合适人选，以于切实 ...

Core Insights - Huazhu Beer announced that Hou Xiaohai will resign as executive director and chairman effective June 27, 2025, to focus on personal arrangements [1] - The chairman position will be temporarily vacant until a suitable successor is appointed, with current executive director and president Zhao Chunwu taking on the chairman's responsibilities during the transition [1] - Hou Xiaohai has been with Huazhu Beer for nearly 25 years and has led the company for over 9 years, playing a crucial role in its high-end transformation [1] Company Performance - Under Hou Xiaohai's leadership, Huazhu Beer experienced significant growth, with revenue increasing by over 10 billion and net profit rising from 1.329 billion in 2015 to 4.759 billion in 2024 [1] - In 2024, despite challenges in the beer industry, Huazhu Beer maintained stability with a total revenue of 38.635 billion, a slight decline of 0.8%, and beer sales decreasing by 2.5% [1] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 42.6% in 2024, while shareholder profit decreased by 8% to 4.739 billion [1] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully implemented a "3 + 3 + 3" strategy since 2016, initiating its high-end transformation [1] - In 2018, Huazhu Beer partnered with Heineken, raising 24.35 billion HKD to acquire a 40% stake, creating the largest beer merger in Asia [1] - The company expanded into the liquor industry in 2021, acquiring brands like Jingzhi and Jinzongzi, with the liquor business generating 2.149 billion in revenue, a 4% increase [1] Market Position - In 2024, high-end beer sales increased by over 9%, with mid-range and above products accounting for over 50% of total sales [1] - Notable brands such as "Lao Xue" and "Hong Jue" saw their sales double, while "Li" brand sales increased by 35% [1] - Recently, Huazhu Beer acquired the second phase of the Xiamen Heineken factory project for 54.5 million, which will double its production capacity [1]