Group 1 - The policy governance goal has shifted from "Six Stabilities" to "Four Stabilities," focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, reflecting changes in the economic environment and governance thinking [1][15][17] - The emphasis on employment remains unchanged, with a record high of over 17.7 million new urban labor force and 12.22 million college graduates this year, highlighting the importance of job stability for consumer confidence and investment [1][15][18] - The integration of previously scattered policies into a more systematic approach allows for more precise interventions in the economy, focusing on the micro-foundations of economic operation [1][16][17] Group 2 - In the first quarter, China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.4%, driven by export "grab" effects, early issuance of local bonds for infrastructure investment, and the "new three items" investment boom [2][18][21] - The sustainability of these driving factors and the emergence of new growth momentum will significantly impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year [2][18][19] - The second quarter serves as a critical observation period for the effects of previous policies and the transition to subsequent policies, which will shape the economic trajectory [2][18][19] Group 3 - Exports have shown resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6% from January to May 2025, supported by increased non-U.S. exports and the "grab export" effect [3][21] - The "grab export" effect is expected to weaken, as the space for further "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports diminishes [6][21][36] - The trade dynamics are influenced by ongoing U.S.-China tariff policies, with companies adjusting their strategies in response to changing tariffs [6][20][45] Group 4 - Consumer spending and investment have been stimulated by policies, with retail sales showing a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5% in the first five months of 2025 [4][23][27] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy and large-scale equipment updates have significantly contributed to this growth, with substantial government support for these initiatives [4][23][26] - Infrastructure investment has been bolstered by early local bond issuance, with a historic increase in special bonds and local government debt planned for 2025 [4][27] Group 5 - Economic internal dynamics show signs of weakness, particularly in major cities where consumer spending has declined, indicating a potential challenge for future growth [5][29][33] - Fixed asset investment growth has been uneven, with manufacturing and infrastructure performing well, while real estate investment continues to decline [5][31][33] - Price levels reflect ongoing demand issues, with CPI and PPI showing negative growth, indicating persistent economic challenges [5][33][36] Group 6 - The second half of 2025 may face significant pressures, including the impact of export uncertainties and the diminishing effects of stimulus policies [6][36][42] - Employment stability is under pressure, with a record number of college graduates entering the job market and potential job losses in export-oriented small and medium enterprises [7][43][46] - The interplay between employment stability and other economic factors such as enterprise stability, market stability, and expectations will be crucial for economic resilience [7][43][46]

中国经济在2024年经济体量突破130万亿元，面对内外环境变化，"稳"成为经济发展的核心要义。本报告围绕2025年中期中国宏观经济形势，从政策调整、 经济运行现状、未来挑战及对策建议等方面展开分析。 政策导向：从"六稳"到"四稳"的演进 政策治理目标从"六稳"调整为"四稳"（稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期），体现了政策内核的延续性与精准化。"稳就业"始终居首，2025年城镇新成长劳 动力1770多万人，高校毕业生1222万人，就业总量压力创新高。政策从关注结果转向治理源头，整合"稳金融"等为"稳企业""稳市场"，抓住经济运行微观基 础，如稳住企业与就业、居民消费的关联，以及外资对中国市场和产业体系的依赖。同时，政策提高战略自主性，区分可控与不可控因素，强调以高质量发 展的确定性应对外部不确定性。 经济运行：上半年的支撑力量与下半年的压力 上半年经济实现5.4%增速，主要得益于出口"抢出口"效应、地方债带动的基建投资、"新三样"投资热潮及消费补贴政策释放的潜力。出口1-5月累计同比增 长6%，背后有对非美出口增加、"抢出口"效应及企业"以价换量"策略的支撑。消费方面，前5个月社零累计同比增长5%，"两新"政策和 ...

再如，今年以来，受关税影响，外贸企业经营承压。政策清单提出"对受关税影响较大的外贸企 业，开展'点对点'上门服务"等针对性措施，展现出山东进一步稳外贸促增长的决心。 可以看到，对重点行业来说，此次政策清单的精准施策可以为其纾困解难，是一场政策"及时雨"。 关键词：衔接 这份政策清单的第二个特点是政策衔接紧密、接续性强。 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，首次提出"四稳"——"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预 期"。此次山东出台的政策清单，与中央宏观政策取向一致。 6月16日，山东省政府发布《加力稳经济促高质量发展政策措施》，推出4个方面26条政策措施，这 是山东今年发布的第二批政策清单。 今年1月，山东推出首批政策清单，其中九成政策措施面向广大经营主体。在上半年即将收官之 际，山东再次推出"政策包"，传递出了哪些动向和信号？ 关键词："四稳" "稳"，是此次政策清单的最大看点。 聚焦更好发挥经济大省"挑大梁"作用，这份政策清单从千方百计稳就业、纾困解难稳企业、深挖需 求稳市场、优化环境稳预期四个方面，提出26条利企惠民政策。 细数这份政策清单，一个能直观感受到的特点是立足当下的应时之举。比如，政策清单将"稳就 ...

Economic Performance - In April, China's total import and export value reached 38,391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with exports at 22,645 billion yuan (up 9.3%) and imports at 15,745 billion yuan (up 0.8%) [1] - The resilience of China's manufacturing sector is highlighted by a 9.5% increase in electromechanical product exports, which accounted for 60.1% of total exports [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors seeing increases of 9.8% and 10.0%, respectively [2] - The service sector production index also rose by 6.0% year-on-year, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and financial services [2] Domestic Consumption - China's retail sales of consumer goods totaled 37,174 billion yuan in April, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and a month-on-month increase of 0.24% [2] - The consumption upgrade policies have shown effectiveness, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances (38.8%), cultural and office supplies (33.5%), furniture (26.9%), and communication equipment (19.9%) [2] Price Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a need for further stimulation of consumption and economic vitality [3] Trade Relations - Following the Geneva trade talks, the cancellation or suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S. took effect on May 14, leading to a recovery in trade orders [3] - The domestic tourism sector showed strong performance during the "May Day" holiday, with 314 million domestic trips and total tourism revenue of 1,802.69 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and 8.0%, respectively [3]

据央视新闻消息，今天上午10点，国务院新闻办公室将举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖 将介绍2025年4月份国民经济运行情况。发布会预计将重点关注房地产、就业等热点问题。今年4月，中 央政治局首次提出"四稳"政策，即着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，并强调高质量发展以应对外 部环境的不确定性。会后，各部门已出台多项措施支持经济发展。记者们期待听取国家统计局对4月经 济数据的解读，包括消费、外贸、投资等方面的表现。 ...

超大规模市场的需求优势是中国经济的底气所在。稳预期是基础和关键。只有居民和企业的预期稳定 了、信心增强了，消费需求和投资需求不足的问题才能随之减轻，来自需求侧和供给侧的矛盾才能得到 逐步化解，巩固经济回升向好的态势才会有坚实的基础和保障。 4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议深入分析研究了当前经济形势和经济工作，释放了"着力稳就业、稳 企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性"的强烈信号。4月30 日，习近平总书记在上海主持召开部分省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会，会议再次强调要"多 措并举稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。着力抓好"四稳"的重要表述，为进一步做好今年经济工作 指明了方向、坚定了信心、展现了底气，这种信心和底气来自中国经济的强大韧性和活力：一季度，面 对纷繁复杂的外部形势，中国经济同比增长5.4%，比去年全年增速加快0.4个百分点，较去年一季度增 速加快0.1个百分点。 面对压力和困难，唯有迎难而上、顶压前行。一要加力重点领域、重点行业、城乡基层和中小微企业岗 位挖潜扩容，支持高校毕业生、农民工等重点群体就业创业。二要落实贷款优惠、税收优惠和培训补 贴、岗位 ...

4 月 25 日中共中央政治局会议在全面研判国内外形势基础上，提出以 "四稳" 政策体系巩固经济回升向 好态势，展现出短期纾困与长期转型的战略平衡。会议指出，一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%、规模以上工 业增加值增速达 6.5% 的背后，仍存在需求不足、内生动力不强、风险隐患仍存等结构性矛盾，需通过 系统性政策组合拳破解深层问题。 稳就业与促消费的双向联动成为政策发力重点。针对青年失业率 14.9% 的结构性难题，会议提出 "提高 中低收入群体收入""设立服务消费与养老再贷款" 等举措，通过消费扩容带动就业。北京、上海等地试 点的 "银发经济" 服务消费券已初见成效，苏州通过发放养老服务消费券、联合企业推出特惠活动，不 仅带动 12 万个养老护理岗位新增，还激活了老年群体的消费潜力，2024 年四季度苏州老年消费市场规 模环比增长 18%。与此同时，深圳将高新技术企业研发费用加计扣除比例提高至 120%，直接推动企业 专利申请量增长 23%，为青年人才提供了更多高技能岗位。 稳企业与强创新的协同推进针对外贸与科技领域的双重挑战。面对美国对华关税政策扰动，政策组合拳 包括提高 13% 出口退税率、设立 200 ...

Macro Strategy and North Exchange - The macro policy remains stable with LPR unchanged at 3.10% for 1-year and 3.60% for 5-year [5] - Industrial enterprise profits showed a year-on-year increase of 2.60% in March, marking the first positive growth since the previous year [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for high-quality development to address international economic and trade struggles, focusing on "Four Stabilities" [7][8] - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds, with a deficit rate set at around 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [8] - Monetary policy will include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with new structural monetary policy tools to support innovation and consumption [10][11] A-Share Market Overview - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, most A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.38% [15] - The market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation state due to the recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US and the upcoming May Day holiday [15][23] - The report indicates a "slow bull" market trend for A-shares in 2025, with a focus on technology, green energy, consumption, and infrastructure sectors [23] North Exchange Market Overview - As of April 25, 2025, the North Exchange had 265 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 755.47 billion yuan, an increase of 1.53% from the previous week [24] - The liquidity in the North Exchange decreased, with average trading volume dropping by 9.79% to 1.384 billion shares [25] - The North Exchange's 50 Index closed at 1300.19 points, down 2.16% from the previous week [26] Industry Insights: Food and Beverage - Salted Fish reported a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan and a net profit of 640 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.89% and 26.53% respectively [34] - The company is focusing on core product categories with strong growth, particularly in spicy snacks and baked goods, with significant revenue increases [35] - Salted Fish is accelerating its overseas expansion, with a projected revenue of 6.678 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 25.9% year-on-year [38] Industry Insights: Medical Devices - The sales of ultrasound imaging devices showed a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with sales revenue increasing by 87.95% year-on-year [40] - The report highlights a shift towards domestic brands, with domestic sales accounting for 37.79% of the market share in 2024, up from 34.20% in 2023 [42] - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic ultrasound device manufacturers like Mindray and KAILI Medical, as the market for these devices is expected to continue recovering [48]

是否进口美国饲料粮、油料不会影响我国粮食供应；企业减少甚至停止自美能源进口，对我国能源供应 没有影响。 金十数据整理：围绕"四稳"工作将出台哪些具体举措？四部门发声 1. 国家发展改革委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措。 针对长期摇号家庭和无车家庭等重点群体，定向增发购车指标。建立实施育儿补贴制度。 力争6月底前下达全年"两重"项目建设和中央预算内投资全国项目清单。 坚持市场在汇率形成中决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性。 指导金融机构对外贸依存度高、遇到困难、产品有竞争力的中小企业不抽贷、不断贷。 3. 商务部：消费品以旧换新政策的实施合计拉动消费超7200亿元。 降低外贸企业内销成本，推动减免房屋租金、展位费、流量费。 2. 央行：将适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。 4. 人社部：一季度全国城镇新增就业308万人。加快推出增量政策，对企业加大扩岗支持。 单一市场单一资产的变动对我国外汇储备影响总体有限。 ...

中央重磅定调! 首次提出"四稳" 4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议首次提出"四稳" 稳 就业 稳企业 稳市场 稳 预期 11:24 ked program and Callery Program 中央重磅定调! "四稳"是什么? 4年 135 中央重磅定调! "四稳"是什么? 稳市场 是在营造可预测的投资和消费 环境,本身就是一种向好预期 好法 稳就业 有助于提高居民收入、带动 消费,进而稳定企业生产 好法 中央重磅定调! "四稳"是什么? 龍企业 不仅能有效吸纳就业，还能 丰富产品供给，充盈市场活力 中央重磅定调! "四稳"是什么? 論 预期 才能调动全社会的积极性， 充分发挥存量政策和增量 政策的效能 好游 内容来源：经济日报 文案/设计：杨淼 石兰 (责任编辑：王炬鹏) ...