当国际金价冲破4000美元/盎司的历史天花板，普通投资者望而却步时，中国央行却像超市大促时抢购日用品的阿姨一样，还在往购物车里猛装黄金。 这画 面是不是有点违和？ 金价都这么高了，为啥还要追涨？ 更让人好奇的是，这已经不是央行第一次这么干了。 到2025年9月底，中国人民银行的黄金储备已经达到7406万盎司，这已经是连续第11个月往里加仓了。 不过这次加得有点谨慎，只增加了4万盎司，是去年11月恢复增持以来手笔最小的一次。 其实看看央行的家底就明白了。 到2025年9月末，黄金在我们国家官方国际储备资产中的占比只有7.7%左右，而全球央行的平均水平在15%上下晃悠。 德 国、法国这些欧洲老牌国家更夸张，黄金占比能冲到70%以上。 这么一比，中国的黄金储备量确实有点"发育不良"。 所以央行这么执着地买黄金，首要任务就是调整外汇储备的"食谱"。 黄金这东西有个好处，它和美元、欧元这些主要货币的价格走势相关性低，能在汇率市场抽风时起到对冲作用。 说白了，就是"不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子 里"的古老智慧。 而且现在国际局势就像夏天的天气，说变就变。 特朗普政府重新上台后，贸易战的火药味又浓了起来，美国政府还闹过停摆危机，3 ...

最近央行又更了黄金储备的数，9月末是7406万盎司，比8月多了4万盎司，这都已经是连续11个月买黄 金了。 可能有人会纳闷，不就是买点黄金吗？至于月月不落，坚持这么久？其实真不是随便调调资产，这里面 藏着咱们应对全球金融变化的心思，今天就跟大家捋捋这事儿。 而且这事儿真不是咱们独一份，全球央行都在干。从2010年开始，各国央行就没停过净买黄金，2023年 的购买量说不定还能破纪录。 先说说咱们自己的情况吧，咱们的外汇储备规模一直是世界第一，但有个挺尴尬的点，含金量太低。 截至9月底，黄金只占外汇储备总额的3.8%左右，你跟别人比就知道差距了，德国、美国这些发达国 家，黄金占比都超60%，连俄罗斯都有20%以上。 就算看绝对吨数，咱们官方储备是1948吨，排全球第六，可跟美国的8133吨比，那还差得远呢。 为啥会这样？其实是过去几十年的思路问题。以前咱们外汇储备主要买美债这些美元资产，核心是保流 动性，毕竟美元是全球贸易主要用的货币，手里有美债，跨境付钱的时候能快些。 但这些年美元越来越不稳了，你看2020年美债收益率倒挂，2022年美联储又猛加息，美债价格跌了不 少，咱们的储备也跟着面临缩水风险。 现在每月慢 ...

今年3月到7月，我国连续减持537亿美元的美债，我国持有的美债已降到7307亿美元，为12年来最低 点。同时，我国又购入了22.7吨黄金，在不知不觉中进行着战术换仓。 然而，近几年来，这一传统认知正在被打破。EW冲突爆发后，美国及其盟友冻结了俄罗斯央行约3000 亿美元的外汇储备，这一举动彻底颠覆了国际社会对"资产安全性"的理解。 它传递出一个明确的信号：在极端地缘政治环境下，所谓的"市场规则"在政治面前P都不是，外汇储备 的安全性不再仅仅由经济因素决定，并且有可能在一夜之间从安全资产变成冻结资产。 由于1-2月份，我国增持了253亿美元的美债，所以前7个月实际减持金额为284亿美元，约合2020亿元人 民币。 购入的22.7吨黄金共花费1130亿元，可以看出，减持美债的钱，超过一半用来购买黄金了，可见我们已 经意识到地缘政治对资产安全的影响了，正加快进行资产再分配。 美国国债曾长期被视为"无风险资产"，是各国央行外汇储备的核心组成部分。其高流动性、稳定收益和 美元作为全球储备货币的地位，使得美债成为国际资本市场的避风港。 其实我们在这之前就已经开始减持美债了。 我国美债最多的时候是在2013年11月，当时余 ...

中国持续减持美债的举动背后有着深层次的考量。国际评级机构穆迪近期调降美国主权信用评级的决定，进一步放大了市场对美国财政可持续性的忧虑。目 前美国国债规模已突破34万亿美元，债务利息支出占GDP比重持续攀升，这种借新还旧的债务循环模式正引发全球投资者的警惕。特别是30年期美债收益率 突破5%的心理关口后，美债作为传统安全资产的吸引力正在减弱。 从战略层面看，中国自2018年起就开始有序调整外汇储备结构。通过持续增持黄金等避 险资产，中国正在构建更具弹性的储备组合。这种渐进式的减持策略既能有效分散风险，又避免了引发市场剧烈波动。这种未雨绸缪的做法，展现了中国在 全球经济不确定性加剧背景下的前瞻性布局。 就在国际社会聚焦中国减持美债之际，美国政坛却传出了令人意外的声音。美国众议院中国问题特别委员会 主席穆勒纳尔近日向特朗普致信，提出了一系列针对中国的激进建议。其中最引人注目的是，他威胁要取消中国航空公司在美国的着陆权，以此施压中国维 持稀土供应。这一将民航与战略资源挂钩的提议，立即引发了舆论哗然。 最近，美国财政部公布的一组数据在全球金融市场掀起波澜：中国单月减持了257亿美元美债，这个数字直接触及了国际经济的敏感 ...

Core Insights - The structure of China's foreign exchange reserves is changing, with an increasing proportion of gold reserves, reflecting a strategic choice amid global economic uncertainties [1][10] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of mid-2023, China's foreign exchange reserves stand at approximately $329.22 billion, with gold reserves amounting to about 2,300.41 tons (approximately 7.396 million ounces) valued at around $260 billion [3] - China's gold reserves have been consistently increasing for nine months, with a notable addition of approximately 1.86 tons in July, valued at about $2.1 million [3] Group 2: Gold Reserves Growth - Prior to 2000, China's gold reserves were relatively stable at around 1.267 million ounces, but have significantly increased over the past two decades, reaching 7.396 million ounces by the latest data [3] - The gold reserves have seen substantial growth, with a 1.5 times increase by 2010, and a further increase of over one-third from 2014 to 2015, surpassing 5.666 million ounces [3] Group 3: International Gold Prices - International gold prices have entered a bull market, fluctuating between $1,700 and $2,000 per ounce since July 2020, with a recent surge to over $3,435 per ounce [6] - Predictions suggest that gold prices may rise to $3,500 in the short term, with potential for exceeding $4,000 in the medium term due to ongoing global economic volatility [6][10] Group 4: Central Bank Strategies - In light of uncertain U.S.-China trade relations, increasing gold reserves has become a rational choice for central banks, with China maintaining a consistent monthly increase in gold holdings [9][10] - The structural adjustment of foreign exchange reserves towards a higher gold proportion is seen as a proactive measure against inflation risks and global economic uncertainties [10]

Group 1 - Central banks globally are adjusting their foreign exchange reserve structures, with a significant increase in gold holdings [1][2] - China has increased its gold reserves to a historical peak of 74.02 million ounces by August 2025, an 18% increase from three years ago, valued at nearly $270 billion at current prices [1][2] - The World Gold Council reports that global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years from 2022 to 2024, with total gold reserves reaching 36,300 tons, valued at approximately $4.65 trillion [2] Group 2 - There is a misconception that countries will gradually sell off U.S. Treasuries and dollar-denominated assets in favor of gold reserves; however, this is not supported by the data [3][10] - The total amount of U.S. Treasuries held by foreign countries decreased from $4.13 trillion in January 2022 to $3.92 trillion by June 2025, reflecting a 5% decline, influenced by market price fluctuations rather than active selling [5] - The price of gold has surged over 100% from around $1,800 per ounce in early 2022 to over $3,600 per ounce currently, driving the increase in the value of gold reserves [7] Group 3 - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to lead to a rebound in U.S. Treasury prices, which may increase their attractiveness to investors [9] - Despite geopolitical risks prompting countries to increase gold holdings for diversification, gold does not serve as a systematic replacement for U.S. Treasuries due to its limited supply and high extraction costs [10][12] - The growth in gold reserves is primarily driven by soaring prices and demand for safe-haven assets, rather than a systematic shift away from U.S. Treasuries [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, highlighting the shift from passive accumulation to a more strategic and diversified approach in response to changing global economic conditions and U.S. policy actions [1][12][27]. Group 1: Historical Context of China's U.S. Treasury Holdings - China's entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001 marked the beginning of its rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, primarily through exports to the U.S. [3] - By 2010, China's exports to the U.S. surged to $283.3 billion, up from $69.9 billion in 2002, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 20% [3] - The influx of U.S. dollars led to a significant increase in China's foreign exchange reserves, surpassing $4 trillion by 2013 [3][8] Group 2: The Appeal of U.S. Treasuries - During the 2000s, U.S. Treasuries were seen as the only viable safe asset for China, given the limited options in the global market [8][10] - The U.S. economy maintained a dominant position, with GDP accounting for over 25% of the global total and the dollar representing over 60% of global trade settlements [8] - The liquidity and government backing of U.S. Treasuries made them an attractive option for China, allowing for quick conversion to dollars when needed [9][10] Group 3: Changing Perceptions and Strategies - The perception of U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" has been challenged, particularly after the U.S. froze Russian assets in 2022, raising concerns about the political implications of holding U.S. debt [12][14] - As a result, global central banks began to diversify their reserves, with countries like India and Brazil reducing their dollar holdings [14][15] - China's response has been to gradually reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings by over $280 billion from 2022 to 2025, while maintaining market stability [17][19] Group 4: Diversification of Reserves - China is adopting a strategy of "gradual reduction and multi-faceted replacement," focusing on diversifying its foreign exchange reserves [19] - The share of gold in China's reserves increased from 3.1% in 2020 to 4.8% in 2025, as gold is viewed as a safe asset free from credit risk [19][21] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a long-term alternative, with significant increases in renminbi settlements in trade with Russia and ASEAN countries [22][24] Group 5: Implications for Global Financial Order - The shift in China's strategy reflects a broader trend of diminishing U.S. dollar hegemony, as the U.S. actions have eroded the core appeal of U.S. Treasuries [27] - China's diversification efforts signal a transition from merely adapting to the dollar system to actively shaping a new global financial order [27]

Group 1: U.S. National Debt Overview - The total U.S. national debt reached approximately $36.66 trillion as of May 2025, with a year-over-year increase of $1.71 trillion, or 4.9% [5][6] - The U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio is about 122%, significantly higher than China's ratio of 66% [5][6] - Domestic investors hold approximately 78% of U.S. government debt, amounting to about $27 trillion, indicating a reliance on domestic rather than foreign sources for debt financing [8][6] Group 2: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - Foreign investors hold about 22% of the total U.S. national debt, which translates to approximately $8.06 trillion [8][6] - Japan leads foreign holdings with $1.13 trillion, followed by the UK at $809.4 billion and China at $756.3 billion [11][23] - The UK has seen a significant increase in its holdings of U.S. debt, rising from $1.5 billion in 2011 to $809.4 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of over 439% [23][24] Group 3: China's Reduction of U.S. Debt Holdings - China has been reducing its U.S. debt holdings, with a decrease of $5.637 billion since its peak of $1.32 trillion in 2011, bringing its current holdings to the lowest level since February 2009 [13][16] - The reduction is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly the lessons learned from the freezing of Russian assets, and a strategic shift towards "preventive hedging" [15][19] - China's shift also includes a structural adjustment of its foreign reserves, moving from U.S. debt to increasing gold reserves, with significant purchases made since November 2022 [21][19] Group 4: Implications of Debt Holdings - The increase in U.S. debt holdings by the UK is largely due to non-sovereign bond holdings, with a significant portion attributed to foreign investments routed through UK financial institutions [24][26] - The dynamics of U.S. debt holdings reflect broader geopolitical considerations, where countries are acting as strategic players rather than just investors, indicating a shift in the global financial landscape [27][26] - The confidence in the U.S. economy is mirrored in the purchasing of U.S. debt, while withdrawals may signal geopolitical concerns or strategic repositioning [27][26]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that as of June 2025, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), marking a net increase of 70,000 ounces for the eighth consecutive month [2] - The ongoing enthusiasm for gold purchases by central banks globally reflects concerns over economic uncertainty, weakening dollar credibility, and geopolitical risks, which will have lasting impacts on foreign exchange reserve structures, gold price trends, and investor decisions [2] Summary by Sections Gold Reserve Increase - Since resuming gold purchases in November last year, China's central bank has shown a "high then stable" monthly gold buying pattern, with an average monthly increase of 60,000 to 160,000 ounces from January to June 2025 [3] - In 2024, global central banks' net gold purchases reached 1,136 tons, the second-highest on record, with China, Poland, and Turkey accounting for over 50% of the total in Q1 2025 [3] Strategic Implications - The central bank's gold purchases align with the internationalization of the renminbi, as it has become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [4] - The trend of increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, as China's gold reserves still lag behind those of developed economies, indicating a strategic need for asset allocation and security [4][5] Market Dynamics - While the central bank's gold purchases may support gold prices, it does not guarantee price increases, as historical instances show that increased central bank purchases can coincide with declining gold prices [6] - The pace and intensity of gold purchases by central banks vary, leading to different short-term impacts on domestic and international gold prices [6] Investment Considerations - The central bank's actions signal the enduring safe-haven appeal of gold, prompting investors to consider various investment vehicles such as gold-themed financial products, physical gold, and gold ETFs [8] - Investors are advised to avoid blindly chasing high prices, as the current high levels of gold prices may already reflect existing uncertainties, and new investors should prioritize long-term value preservation over short-term gains [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing increasing internal calls for interest rate cuts, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly predicting two rate cuts by the end of the year, warning that waiting for inflation to drop to 2% could lead to missed opportunities that harm the economy and labor market [1] - Fed Governor Waller echoed similar sentiments, suggesting an immediate reduction of rates from the current 4.25%-4.5% to around 3% to alleviate economic pressure, indicating a response to prevailing economic conditions [1][3] Group 2 - The Fed's shift is not only a reaction to economic data but also a response to external political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who argues that a 1% rate cut could save the U.S. $360 billion in interest payments, highlighting the increasing pressure on the Fed [3] - Concurrently, China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for three consecutive months, bringing its holdings down to $756.3 billion, while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves, which are expected to reach 73.9 million ounces by June 2025, indicating a strategic shift in its foreign exchange reserve structure [3][5] Group 3 - The preference for gold over U.S. Treasuries is driven by the low yields of the latter in the face of inflation and dollar depreciation, with global central banks also increasing gold purchases, reaching the second-highest level in 2024, as a response to the dominance of the dollar [5] - Countries are adapting to a new economic landscape, seeking balance with the U.S. as unilateralism increases its isolation, evidenced by ASEAN countries using local currencies for transactions and Saudi Arabia doubling its oil trade with China in yuan [6]