今天分享的是：2035年超级趋势报告：重塑市场与商业的六大颠覆性力量（英文版） 报告共计：44页 未来十年，六大颠覆性力量将重塑全球商业格局 在充满不确定性与高度互联的今天，企业领导者面临的挑战空前严峻。一份名为《2035年超级趋势》的前瞻报告指出，世界正被六股深刻而持久的力量所重 塑。这些趋势并非短暂风潮，而是结构性的全球变革，它们跨越行业界限，以不可阻挡之势重新定义市场、社会与商业的本质。对于企业而言，忽略它们意 味着被时代抛弃，而敏锐洞察并果断行动者，将能跨越竞争、定义未来。 指数智能：思维速度驱动的商业革命 人工智能正以前所未有的速度渗透每一个商业环节。到2035年，预计超过90%的数字内容将由AI生成，人机思维的界限日益模糊。这不仅仅是技术的线性进 步，更是基因组学、机器人、区块链与能源存储等技术融合催生的指数级飞跃。企业必须将AI深度嵌入从运营到营销的所有核心职能，开发专属的智能模 型。未来的赢家，将是那些利用预测性、超个性化界面重塑客户体验，并擅长人机协同的公司。 世代融合：更年老、更都市、更多元、更个人 全球社会正变得更年老、更都市化、更多元化且更具个人色彩。到2035年，全球60岁以上人口比 ...

二战后，美国从欧洲接手大量金条，建起美元体系，那时候的储备一度超两万吨。现在虽减了些，但核心部分没动，存放在诺克斯堡的地下库房里。 俄罗斯呢，从苏联时代继承下来的底子，在普京手里慢慢加码，到2025年9月已达2330吨左右，主要靠本土矿产自给。 中国储备在2025年第三季度是2303吨，增速不慢，但跟经济体量比，还只是个小比例。这些数字背后，是各国对金融安全的不同理解，美国靠老本，俄中在 追赶中找平衡。 储备差距不是天生的，而是战略选择的结果。美国黄金占比外汇储备高达69%，这让美元在全球晃荡时总有底气。 记得2022年俄乌冲突爆发，西方冻结俄罗斯资产，那时候俄央行靠黄金稳住卢布，没让经济彻底趴下。俄罗斯从2014年起，每年增持上百吨，到2025年占比 达26%，这不光是钱的问题，更是独立于西方体系的生存之道。 中国策略更稳扎稳打，从2009年公开增持开始，逐步减美债买黄金。2025年上半年，金价虽高，但央行还是低调加了点，目的就是为人民币走出去铺路。 黄金在当今世界，不再是古董级的避险品，而是活生生的金融武器。美国储备多，但2025年债务堆积如山，黄金成了隐形担保，避免信用崩盘。 俄罗斯面对制裁，黄金帮它建 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration's tariffs on Japanese automobiles have escalated from an initial 27.5% to 50%, significantly impacting Japan's economy, as automobile exports account for nearly 20% of its GDP and 30% of exports to the U.S. [1] - Japan's Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo's team has proposed to increase purchases of U.S. natural gas and corn, as well as to contribute more to the costs of U.S. military presence in Japan, but the U.S. response has been vague [1] - Internal discussions within the Japanese government suggest using its substantial holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as leverage, with proposals to sell some to pressure the U.S. [3] Group 2 - The trade conflict has highlighted the fragility of U.S.-Japan relations, with experts suggesting Japan should adopt a more assertive stance similar to China's approach in its trade disputes with the U.S. [3] - Japan is reevaluating its trade policies towards China, with calls for a "zero tariff" approach and renewed discussions on the trilateral free trade agreement with China and South Korea [7] - Japan's commitment to participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative, including infrastructure projects, is seen as a strategy to stabilize resource supply and enhance economic cooperation [7] Group 3 - Tensions have escalated following remarks by Japan's Prime Minister regarding China's actions towards Taiwan, leading to a deterioration in trade relations and the cancellation of cultural meetings [9] - Japan's reliance on the U.S. has been questioned, as the country risks becoming a pawn in U.S.-China tensions, with the U.S. emphasizing its priorities in the region [11] - Japan's economic strategy must adapt to the growing influence of China, with calls for deeper cooperation in high-end manufacturing to ensure mutual benefits [13]

December 11, 2025 11:29 AM GMT 亚洲经济 为何中国会扩大在全球制造业 出口中的领先优势 尽管全球存在贸易摩擦、保护主义以及G20经济体推行产业政 策，鉴于中国在先进制造领域的优势以及在电动车、电池、 机器人等高增长新兴领域的主导地位，我们预计到2030年中 国在全球的出口市场份额将从目前的15%提升至16.5%。 中国在全球制造业中占据主导：中国占全球口的15%，占全球制造业GDP 的28%，并且根据中国海关数据，与225个经济体中的177个保持商品贸易顺差。这 种主导地位在微观层面更为明显。2019-24年，在全球增长最快的15个口细⮇领 域中，中国在其中11个领域的口增长超过全球平均水平。 M Asia Pacific Insight Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Chetan Ahya 亚洲首席经济学家 Chetan.Ahya@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7812 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ 甘永康 亚洲经济学家 Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.com ...

Group 1 - European industry is at a critical juncture, requiring investment and technology from China, as stated by Macron [2][6] - Macron warns of potential tariffs on Chinese goods if trade imbalances are not addressed, indicating a shift towards a more confrontational stance [3][16] - The narrative of blaming China for Europe's industrial decline is seen as a diversion from internal issues, such as high energy prices and factory relocations [7][12] Group 2 - The call for Chinese investment is not merely a plea for help but a strategic move to regain power and influence in the global market [5][20] - Macron's desire for China to invest in Europe reflects a longing for a past where Western companies dominated the value chain [13][14] - The current situation highlights a shift in power dynamics, with China now holding technological advantages and a complete supply chain [15][41] Group 3 - The interconnected global supply chain means that imposing tariffs on Chinese goods would primarily impact European consumers, leading to inflation [17][18] - The products exported from China are increasingly high-tech and not easily replaceable, complicating the tariff strategy [19][42] - Macron's warnings serve as a negotiation tactic to encourage Chinese investment along specific lines, such as green industries [20][21] Group 4 - Internal divisions within Europe regarding China policy hinder a unified approach, with different countries having varying dependencies on Chinese investment [22][24] - The simplification of complex internal issues into a narrative of "Chinese threat" serves to distract from Europe's structural problems [27][28] - The ongoing power shift in the global economy is causing discomfort in Europe, as it struggles to adapt to a new reality where it is no longer the dominant force [30][32] Group 5 - Future relations between Europe and China are expected to be characterized by competition and cooperation, with potential for both conflict and collaboration [51][52] - The narrative of who will "save" whom is outdated, as both sides are focused on self-improvement rather than reliance on the other [54][60] - Europe's industrial decline will continue if it does not address its internal challenges and instead focuses on external blame [58][61]

Summary of the 2026 Asia EM Equity Outlook Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the Asia Emerging Markets (EM) equity outlook for 2026, with a particular emphasis on Japan and other emerging markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Strategy for 2026**: The company recommends maintaining a market risk exposure closely aligned with benchmark indices, with a slight preference for Japan over other emerging markets. This strategy aims to achieve excess returns amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4][5]. 2. **Global Economic Outlook**: The outlook for 2026 is cautiously optimistic, driven by generally constructive global growth expectations, particularly the potential for acceleration in 2027. The baseline index target price has been raised, reflecting a wider range between optimistic and pessimistic scenarios due to six key macroeconomic dimensions [3][4][5]. 3. **Key Macro Drivers**: The six dimensions influencing market performance include: - U.S. economic growth - Dollar movements - China's re-inflation - U.S. interest rates - Multipolar world dynamics - Capital expenditures in artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand [3][4][5]. 4. **Japan's Performance**: In the baseline scenario, Japan is expected to slightly outperform emerging markets. Earnings per share (EPS) expectations for Japan are slightly above market consensus, while those for emerging markets and China are below consensus. The trend of re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE) are expected to be supported by the new government through moderate fiscal policies and regulatory reforms [4][5][22]. 5. **Emerging Markets Outlook**: Emerging markets are anticipated to lose momentum in 2026 due to stabilizing dollar conditions, which will limit further easing of financial conditions. A moderate optimism is maintained for the Chinese market, with expectations that the multi-polar world risk will diminish, keeping valuations close to current levels [4][5][22]. 6. **Sector Recommendations**: The company continues to recommend overweight positions in financials, consumer discretionary/e-commerce, and industrials, while underweighting energy and materials. Information technology, telecommunications, and real estate are maintained at equal weight [5][22]. 7. **Investment Themes**: The core investment themes for 2026 include a multipolar world, technology diffusion, longevity trends, and the future of energy, reflecting a rapidly changing global landscape [15][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Valuation and Earnings Forecasts**: The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts, particularly for Japan, while making smaller adjustments for China and emerging markets. The forecasts reflect a more optimistic view on global growth and inflation, as well as resilience in the financial sector [22][40]. 2. **Historical Performance Context**: The year 2025 is noted as an anomalous year, with market performance resembling that of 2020, driven by U.S. tariffs, fiscal, and monetary policies. The current valuations are significantly above long-term averages, which may limit the outlook for emerging markets [15][18]. 3. **Volatility Expectations**: The company expects continued significant differentiation in market, sector, and stock returns, a key characteristic of 2025, indicating a need for robust portfolio construction to navigate uncertainties [18][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the outlook for Asia's emerging markets in 2026, highlighting the strategic focus on Japan and the broader macroeconomic context influencing investment decisions.

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical dynamics surrounding Russia, Europe, and China are complex and uncertain, particularly in the context of potential leadership changes in Russia and the implications for international relations [1][2]. Group 1: Russia's Stance and Strategy - Russia has consistently emphasized the importance of security and territorial integrity since Putin's rise to power in 2000, indicating that core interests will not easily change regardless of leadership [2]. - Medvedev has stated that Russia is not interested in war with Europe, but warns that misjudgments by European nations could lead to severe consequences [2]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted over three years, with Russia's economy enduring sanctions yet remaining resilient, highlighting its ability to navigate through adversity [2]. Group 2: Energy and Economic Relations - In 2021, Europe relied on Russia for 40% of its natural gas, which is projected to drop to 10% by 2024, yet the existing pipeline infrastructure still connects the two regions [2]. - The trade volume between China and Russia is expected to exceed $240 billion in 2024, showcasing a strong economic partnership that benefits both nations [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Medvedev's comments reflect a growing assertiveness in Russian foreign policy, emphasizing that a change in leadership will not resolve deep-rooted conflicts between Russian security needs and European values [4]. - The European Union has spent over a thousand billion euros in aid to Ukraine, leading to rising energy prices and social unrest within Europe, indicating a challenging economic environment [4]. - The rise of nationalism and far-right movements in Europe is causing economic strain, with European companies facing high operational costs and increasing unemployment [5]. Group 4: China-Russia Relations - The relationship between China and Russia is characterized by mutual interests rather than personal ties, with both countries collaborating on strategic stability and anti-hegemonic efforts [5][6]. - Cultural exchanges between China and Russia are thriving, with increased tourism and educational interactions, reinforcing the bilateral relationship [6]. - Medvedev predicts that Europe's optimistic expectations regarding Russia will be shattered, leading to further difficulties for European nations [6].

Core Points - The third Minsk Eurasian Security International Conference opened in Minsk, Belarus, with participation from over 40 countries and regions, as well as 7 international organizations, discussing strategic stability, arms control, regional cooperation, information and economic security, and migration issues [1][9] Group 1: Key Statements from Leaders - Belarusian President Lukashenko stated that the Western unipolar world order poses a threat to global stability, advocating for a multipolar world based on mutual respect and cooperation, and emphasizing the need for diplomatic dialogue over sanctions [2][4] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized that Europe must abandon its "arrogant exclusive claims" and hostile stance towards many Eurasian countries, including Russia and Belarus, expressing willingness to engage in substantive discussions on security issues [5][10] - Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto highlighted the importance of regional partnerships in addressing migration and economic security issues, urging all parties to adopt inclusive approaches that benefit all stakeholders [7]

Core Views - China actively participates in global governance with a constructive approach, promoting international order towards a direction that aligns with the common interests of humanity through four global initiatives [1][4] Group 1: Global Initiatives - The four global initiatives proposed by President Xi Jinping—Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative, and Global Governance Initiative—represent a systematic response to global development and governance needs [2][3] - The Global Development Initiative focuses on narrowing the North-South gap and enhancing development investment to support the UN's 2030 Sustainable Development Goals [2] - The Global Security Initiative addresses global security challenges, advocating for the principle of indivisible security and a common security approach [2] - The Global Civilization Initiative promotes respect for cultural diversity and encourages exchanges among civilizations to foster human progress [2] - The Global Governance Initiative calls for increased representation and voice for developing countries in global governance, aiming to rectify imbalances in the traditional global governance system [2][3] Group 2: China's Role in Multilateral Cooperation - China plays a significant role in various multilateral cooperation mechanisms, providing practical support for the implementation of the four global initiatives [3] - In the BRICS cooperation framework, China collaborates with other countries to expand cooperation beyond economic realms into political security and cultural exchanges [3] - Within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China leads efforts to enhance cooperation and maintain stability in the Eurasian region [3] - As the largest trading partner of ASEAN, China deepens cooperation in trade, culture, and security, contributing to regional integration [3] - In Africa and the Middle East, China builds dialogue platforms and promotes infrastructure projects, contributing to local development [3] Group 3: Future Implications - The four global initiatives serve as a clear roadmap towards a multipolar world, reflecting China's growing economic strength and international influence [3] - These initiatives break the monopoly of a few countries in development, security, civilization, and governance, establishing these rights as common entitlements for all humanity [3] - As cooperation under these initiatives deepens, China is expected to play a more significant role in promoting global multipolarity and building a community with a shared future for mankind [4]

Group 1 - Recent high-level interactions between China and the US include video calls between defense ministers and discussions between foreign ministers, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement [1] - The Madrid talks aimed to address long-standing trade differences, covering issues such as unilateral tariffs, export controls, and the TikTok situation, with a basic framework for cooperation established [3] - The US is attempting to rally allies to pressure China, particularly regarding tariffs on Russian oil purchases, but faces resistance from allies who are economically dependent on China [5] Group 2 - China has implemented targeted countermeasures against US pressure, including export license requirements for rare earth elements and increased tariffs on US agricultural products, impacting US farmers significantly [7] - The US ban on Chinese drones has backfired, revealing the US drone industry's heavy reliance on Chinese components, which could lead to a crisis if China imposes export controls [9] - The competitive and controlling nature of US-China relations has shifted, with China now actively countering US measures and demonstrating its technological capabilities [11] Group 3 - The US's view of a multipolar world is evolving, but it continues to see China as a major competitor, indicating that strategic competition will persist [13] - The reality of high costs in the US high-tech sector, exemplified by drone manufacturing, highlights the challenges faced by the US as it navigates the trade war with China [15] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains with China suggests that sanctions against China could have far-reaching implications for global economic stability [15]