Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on promoting stable growth, improving people's livelihoods, and managing risks under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected narrow fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% and new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5][43]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift towards a "people-oriented" expenditure structure, which is reflected in the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since July [1][5]. - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with tight constraints still present. The income from individual income tax and securities transactions has improved, while land transfer income has seen a narrowing decline [5][11]. - On the expenditure side, there is a moderate expansion in total fiscal spending, with a structural shift towards social welfare. The central government's financial support is increasing, but the alignment of financial resources and responsibilities still needs optimization [1][11][15]. Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on three key tasks: promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives, addressing the slowdown in external demand, and resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [1][21][22]. - Policies such as trade-in programs and childbirth subsidies are expected to continue and be enhanced, with a focus on service consumption, projecting a retail sales growth rate of around 4.5% [2][25]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, it is essential to clarify the scale and path of debt management funding, with an estimated need for around 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt management and clearing overdue accounts in 2026 [3][29]. - The pressure of interest payments after debt replacement is expected to be manageable due to a low-interest environment, which will help offset the visible interest payment pressure [3][37]. - The growth rate of infrastructure investment is projected to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by the constraints of debt management and the pursuit of effective investment [3][41]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Projections for 2026 - The growth rate of broad fiscal spending is expected to be around 4.6%, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate still needing to exceed 4%, and new local special bonds projected at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan [5][43][49]. - The general public budget revenue growth rate is estimated at about 1%, while government fund revenue is expected to decline by around 5% [43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators like GDP growth and consumption having positive trends, while others such as exports face challenges. The monetary policy has space but its marginal efficiency is declining, and there is a need to shift the macro - control approach from over - reliance on investment to promoting consumption and benefiting people's livelihoods. The bond market may have opportunities from December this year to early next year, and the stock market shows certain upward momentum [1][2][16][29]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - In September 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, lower than the previous value of 49.8% and the same - period value of 50.1%. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% in the previous period but down from 50.2% last year. Social financing scale increment in October was 814.9 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.6 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The cumulative social financing scale increment in the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rates of social financing stock and M2 were 8.5% and 8.2% respectively, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The 10 - month economic data indicates that offline consumption, infrastructure construction, and industrial production are showing positive trends [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - On November 13, international precious metal futures generally fell. Uncertainty about economic data and the Fed's policy stance affected the market. Gold futures had a large inflow of funds, and the trading volume increased significantly. The inventory of some metals changed, with zinc and aluminum inventories increasing, and lead and copper inventories decreasing [4][5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In Liaodong, a large - scale gold deposit, the Dadonggou Gold Mine, was discovered, with a proven gold metal content of 1444.49 tons [8]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The "Management Measures" aim to rationalize the investment and construction mechanism of oil and gas pipeline infrastructure. On November 13, the price of US crude oil futures rose. The IEA raised the forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025, and concerns about supply tightening also supported the price [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In October, the US soybean crushing volume reached a record high, while Brazil's coffee exports decreased. China plans to purchase US soybeans, and Indonesia's palm oil exports may decline in 2026 due to the B50 plan [12][13]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 13, the central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 9.72 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - The social financing scale and M2 growth rates decreased month - on - month. The US government ended its 43 - day shutdown. China's economic fundamentals are solid, with consumption showing a good trend, especially in lower - tier cities. Some companies have bond - related issues, and overseas credit ratings of some companies have changed [16][18][22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market weakened, with most bond yields rising slightly. The yields of US and European bonds also increased. Some institutions issued bonds, and their yields and subscription multiples are provided [23][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies mostly rose [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different research institutions have different views on the bond market. CICC believes that the social financing scale may continue to decline, and bond allocation is favorable for interest rate decline. Yangtze River believes that the probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut is low, and the interest rate cut window may open from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. Xingzheng suggests a defensive strategy for US bonds [29]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission's chairman exchanged views on capital market cooperation with French and Brazilian regulatory authorities. A - shares and the Hong Kong stock market rose, with different sectors performing differently [32][33].

Group 1 - The core inflation target of around 2% in China should be viewed from a medium to long-term perspective, as the effects of macroeconomic policies, especially monetary policy, typically have a time lag [1][3] - Major price indicators have shown signs of stabilization and recovery, with the CPI rising to 0.2% year-on-year in October, and the core CPI increasing by 1.2%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [1][2] - The current low inflation is attributed to various factors on both supply and demand sides, and a combination of macroeconomic policies is needed to promote reasonable price recovery [1][4] Group 2 - The recent macroeconomic policies have been more proactive, with a focus on promoting consumption and improving living standards, which has led to a solidifying economic recovery [2][5] - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year, highlighting the growing role of consumption as an economic driver [5] - The shift in macroeconomic policy thinking is evident, moving from a heavy reliance on investment to a greater emphasis on consumption and social welfare, which is expected to enhance residents' consumption capacity and willingness [3][5]

Core Points - The latest minimum wage standards released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security indicate that as of October 1, 2023, all 31 provinces and municipalities in China have surpassed a minimum monthly wage of 2000 yuan, marking a historic milestone [1][2] - The minimum wage serves as a baseline to ensure that low-income groups receive a basic income, preventing their wages from being driven too low, and it is also a legal basis for calculating overtime pay, unemployment benefits, and probationary wages [1][2] - The adjustment signifies the formal entry of the national minimum wage standard into the "2000 yuan era," reflecting the government's commitment to steadily increasing basic income for workers and reinforcing the social safety net [2][3] Economic Implications - The increase in the minimum wage is expected to stabilize the consumption foundation of society, enhancing the resilience of economic development [3] - The growth in income is crucial for stimulating domestic consumption, which is a key driver of economic growth in the new phase of high-quality development [2][3] - The minimum wage adjustment is part of a broader strategy to promote a virtuous cycle of increasing income, boosting consumption, and improving living standards during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's recent speeches and directives, particularly regarding women's roles in society and their development [1][2] - The city has maintained a stable economic performance in 2023, with a focus on growth, technology, industry, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [2] - The fourth quarter is critical for achieving the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan and ensuring a good start for the 15th Five-Year Plan, with a call for enhanced responsibility and action [2] Group 2 - There is a strong focus on enhancing demand potential, expanding effective investment, and promoting urban renewal initiatives [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for a comprehensive approach to stabilize the industrial base, improve service quality, and support enterprises facing difficulties [2] - The city aims to ensure social stability, safety production, and ecological protection while effectively managing risks in key areas [2]

Market Overview - The financing net purchase in A-shares exceeded 14.4 billion yuan for the week, with the financing balance reaching a historical high of 2.44 trillion yuan [1][3] - The A-share market experienced adjustments due to external market volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index failing to break through 3,900 points and the Shenzhen Component Index falling below 13,000 points [1][3] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,839.76, down 76.47 points or 1.95% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,688.94, down 397.47 points or 3.04% [2] - The ChiNext Index fell to 2,935.37, down 102.07 points or 3.36% [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index dropped 2.48% for the week, with a cumulative decline of 3.97% [2] Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a net purchase of over 7.6 billion yuan, while the power equipment sector received over 2.7 billion yuan in net purchases [3] - The banking sector experienced a net outflow of over 1.3 billion yuan, while the food and beverage, home appliances, electronics, and automotive sectors also faced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] - The banking sector was the only one to see a net inflow exceeding 12.3 billion yuan, with transportation and steel sectors also receiving significant inflows [3] Investment Trends - The banking sector's dividend yield median is 4.01%, with several banks exceeding 6% [6] - All bank stocks have a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio below 10, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [6] - The coal sector has shown strength due to the onset of the heating season, with coal stocks experiencing significant price increases [4][8] Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive sector rotation in the A-share market, with a focus on digital technology, space economy, and healthcare [3] - The coal industry is projected to maintain a balanced supply and demand, with potential price improvements expected due to seasonal demand [8]

Group 1: Policy Focus - The Chief Executive of Hong Kong, John Lee, emphasized that "benefiting people's livelihood" is a key focus of the new policy report, aiming to enhance long-term economic competitiveness and improve citizens' happiness and sense of gain [2][11] - The report outlines nine key areas related to citizens' daily lives, with housing being the top priority, including accelerated construction of public housing and innovative "simple public housing" initiatives [2][3] Group 2: Northern Metropolis Development - The Northern Metropolis is highlighted as strategically important, occupying one-third of Hong Kong's land, with plans to accelerate its development and attract industries and major projects [4][6] - A new "Northern Metropolis Development Committee" will be established to streamline administrative processes and introduce competitive practices for land management [5][6] Group 3: Housing and Land Policies - The government plans to allow the transfer of unused plot ratios from redevelopment projects to other areas, aiming to optimize land use and facilitate urban renewal [3][6] - A pilot program will permit property owners to offset land compensation costs by returning land to the government, with specific compensation rates set for different land classifications [6][7] Group 4: Financial Market Initiatives - The report proposes exploring the reduction of the stock settlement cycle to T+1, with consultations planned for the first half of next year [9] - The government aims to optimize the "New Capital Investor Entry Scheme" by lowering the residential transaction threshold to HKD 30 million, enhancing the scheme's attractiveness to investors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi government is launching a subsidy program for purchasing new residential properties to stimulate consumption, stabilize the market, and benefit the public, running from September 15 to October 31, with a total subsidy amount of 120 million yuan [1] Summary by Categories Subsidy Details - The total subsidy amount for the program is 120 million yuan [1] - Two categories of eligible buyers: 1. Buyers of the first or second new residential property in Guangxi can receive a subsidy of 10,000 yuan per property 2. Buyers of new residential parking spaces can receive a subsidy of 1,000 yuan per space [1][1] - If there are two or more buyers, one buyer can apply for the subsidy [1] Application Process - Buyers can submit their application materials online through the Yunshangfu App [1] - On-site consultation services are available at the housing and urban-rural development service windows in various cities, counties, and districts [1] - Telephone consultation services are provided by the Guangxi Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department and local housing departments [1] Program Conditions - The subsidy program operates on a "first-come, first-served" basis, and will end once the funds are exhausted [1] - If the subsidy funds are used up before the end date, the program will be terminated immediately, with announcements made through official channels [1]

Core Insights - The event "Expand Consumption, Promote Development, Benefit People's Livelihood" was held in Handan, aiming to stimulate consumer potential and respond to residents' consumption needs [1][3] - The market event featured over 400 local enterprises and included four major exhibition areas, showcasing nearly a thousand brand products [3] Group 1 - The market event took place at the South Square of Handan Grand Theatre, with a focus on local specialties, building materials, food, and comprehensive services [3] - The event achieved sales of nearly 7 million yuan and secured over 60 cooperative intention orders [3] - The Handan Private Economy Industry Association has been actively promoting social responsibility and enhancing consumer confidence in the private sector through these events [3]

Group 1 - Employment is viewed as a barometer of economic development and a stabilizer for society, with policies focusing on job stability and improving livelihoods [1] - The collaboration between government and banks has created a financial support system for job seekers, enhancing economic resilience [1] Group 2 - The number of delivery riders in China has exceeded 10 million, highlighting the growing demand for gig economy jobs [2] - Delivery riders prioritize timely salary payments, which poses financial challenges for service providers who often need to advance funds [2][3] Group 3 - Financial institutions like Industrial Bank have developed tailored loan products such as "Xing Su Dai" to address the cash flow needs of delivery platforms, with a total of 1 billion yuan disbursed to support over 10,000 riders [3] - Other banks have introduced specialized financial services to alleviate payroll pressures for small and medium enterprises [3] Group 4 - New farmers and young entrepreneurs are crucial for the growth of the private economy, with many returning to rural areas to start businesses [4] - Financial support from banks, such as Jiangsu Bank's customized services, has enabled these entrepreneurs to overcome initial funding challenges [4] Group 5 - Local governments in Ningbo have implemented various support measures, including loans and subsidies, to assist new entrepreneurs [5] - Several banks have launched targeted credit support policies for new farmers and young entrepreneurs, enhancing their access to funding [6] Group 6 - Banks are actively participating in job fairs and providing personalized financing solutions to job seekers, addressing the information gap between employers and potential employees [7] - Initiatives like the "Thousand Jobs, Ten Thousand Families" program by China Bank aim to facilitate employment through various activities and platforms [7]