Core Viewpoint - The March EPMI (Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index) significantly increased by 13.0 points to 57.6, indicating a strong recovery in emerging industries during the peak season of operations, surpassing seasonal averages and previous years' performance [1][6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply and demand improved synchronously, with production and procurement indices rising by 23.4 and 24.2 points respectively, while product and export order indices increased by 17.8 and 15.6 points [8][9]. - Both production and product order indices exceeded an absolute level of 60, indicating a healthy supply-demand relationship, contributing 45% and 41% to the EPMI increase respectively [8][9]. Price Trends - Prices continued to rise, with purchase and sales price indices increasing by 8.4 and 6.1 points respectively, marking the continuation of a positive trend for three and four months [12]. - The EPMI and PMI price indices suggest a potential positive shift in PPI (Producer Price Index) for the first time in 42 months [12]. R&D and Expectations in Emerging Industries - Emerging industries showed strong R&D and expectation indicators, with short-term financing conditions improving as the EPMI loan difficulty index decreased by 2.7 points [15][16]. - R&D, employment, and expectations indices rose by 7.5, 8.6, and 22.2 points respectively, reflecting a favorable environment for innovation and growth [15][16]. Sector Performance - The new generation of information technology, new materials, and new energy sectors exhibited the highest levels of prosperity, with indices around 60 [3][17]. - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, saw significant growth, with retail sales increasing by 36% year-on-year in early March [3][17]. Price Performance Insights - New materials and energy-saving environmental protection sectors experienced substantial price increases due to geopolitical tensions affecting costs, which were passed down to downstream sectors [20]. - The sales prices in high-end equipment manufacturing rose significantly by 16.2 points, supported by strong export demand [20][22]. Manufacturing PMI Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is expected to show significant improvement, returning to an expansionary phase, supported by positive trends in traditional manufacturing sectors [22].

Group 1: EPMI Overview - The March EPMI increased significantly by 13.0 points to 57.6, surpassing seasonal averages and previous years' increases of 7.8, 3.9, and 9.3 points in March 2015, 2018, and 2024 respectively[3] - The absolute level of the March EPMI indicates a strong performance in emerging industries during the peak production season[3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side production and procurement indices rose by 23.4 and 24.2 points respectively, while demand-side product orders and export orders increased by 17.8 and 15.6 points[4] - Both production and product order indices exceeded 60, indicating a healthy supply-demand relationship, contributing 45% and 41% to the EPMI increase respectively[4][5] Group 3: Price Trends - In March, the purchasing price index rose by 8.4 points and the sales price index increased by 6.1 points, continuing a trend of improvement over the past months[7] - The profit index also saw a rise of 9.4 points, indicating a positive outlook for profitability in the sector[7] Group 4: Industry Insights - Emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new materials, and new energy showed the highest levels of prosperity, with indices around 60[8] - Significant improvements were noted in the new energy vehicle and biotechnology sectors, with increases exceeding 15 points[8]

Group 1: EPMI Overview - The February EPMI for strategic emerging industries decreased by 5.4 points to 44.6, primarily due to seasonal effects from the Spring Festival[3] - Compared to historical data, this year's EPMI decline is less severe than in 2021 and similar to 2024, while weaker than 2015 and 2018[3] - Only the new energy sector remains in the expansion zone, with the other six sectors below the 50-point threshold[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Indicators - Production index fell by 14.7 points, contributing 68% to the EPMI decline, while the procurement index decreased by 18.0 points[3] - Product order index dropped by 5.9 points and export order index fell by 8.1 points, indicating weak demand[4] - The production-to-order ratio was -3.9, down from 4.9, suggesting a significant shift in production dynamics[4] Group 3: Price Trends and Loan Conditions - Purchase prices increased by 5.3 points and sales prices rose by 2.8 points, continuing an upward trend for two and three months respectively[5] - The profit index decreased by 11.2 points, indicating pressure on margins despite rising prices[5] - Loan difficulty index remained stable, showing no signs of easing liquidity conditions[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - New energy is the only sector above 50, with a significant increase of 5.2 points, while energy-saving and environmental protection sectors rose by 3.1 points[6] - High-end equipment manufacturing and new-generation information technology sectors also saw increases in new product launches, indicating active innovation[5] - The overall price improvement amidst seasonal impacts suggests potential opportunities in the price line for March[8]

Core Viewpoint - The February Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) decreased by 5.4 points to 44.6, primarily due to seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival, with the decline being less severe than in 2021 and similar to 2024, while weaker than 2015 and 2018 [1][4][5]. Group 1: EPMI and Industry Performance - The EPMI's decline reflects a broader economic slowdown, with only the new energy sector remaining in the expansion zone among seven major sub-industries [6][4]. - The production index fell by 14.7 points, while the procurement index dropped by 18.0 points, indicating a significant slowdown in production compared to demand [9][10]. - The production index's decline contributed 68% to the overall EPMI decrease, suggesting that the extended holiday period had a substantial impact [9][10]. Group 2: New Product Launches and Price Trends - New product launches increased by 5.7 points, particularly in high-end equipment manufacturing and next-generation information technology, indicating active product innovation during this period [11][2]. - Price indicators showed positive trends, with purchase prices rising by 5.3 points and sales prices increasing by 2.8 points, marking continued improvement despite seasonal impacts [11][2]. Group 3: Loan Difficulty and Sectoral Insights - The loan difficulty index remained stable, indicating a neutral stance without signs of easing, despite previous increases [14][2]. - The new energy sector was the only industry with an EPMI above 50, reflecting its leading position in the emerging industries, while other sectors like energy conservation and environmental protection also showed slight improvements [15][3].

Group 1: EPMI Overview - In January 2026, the Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, aligning with seasonal trends observed in previous years[3] - Historical data shows that in years with a late Spring Festival, the average EPMI change in January is an increase of 0.8 points, with 2015 showing a decrease of 1.5 points, while 2018 and 2024 showed increases of 2.8 and 1.0 points respectively[3] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the seven sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries, three are in the expansion zone, consistent with November and December 2025[4] - Key indicators such as production volume, product orders, and export orders improved by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively in January 2026[4] - The production-demand ratio increased to 4.9, up from 4.8, indicating a positive outlook for demand post-holiday[5] Group 3: Price and Loan Indicators - In January 2026, purchase prices rose by 0.4 points and sales prices by 0.3 points, continuing an upward trend since July 2025[5] - The difficulty of obtaining loans increased by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January[5] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors are leading in terms of economic performance, with biotechnology remaining above 60 in the high prosperity zone[6] - Compared to December 2025, the biotechnology sector increased by 1.2 points, while other sectors saw increases between 0.7 and 1.0 points[7] Group 5: Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Seasonal patterns suggest that the manufacturing PMI may experience slight declines in January, as seen in previous years, with an average decrease of 0.13 points historically[7] - High-frequency data indicates mixed performance in traditional industries, with some sectors like steel showing increased operational rates while others like automotive parts declined[8]

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) for January 2026 increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, indicating stable mid-level economic conditions with three out of seven sub-industries in the expansion zone, consistent with seasonal trends observed in previous years [1][5][6]. Sub-item Summaries - **Production and Demand Indicators**: In January, production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively. The production-to-demand ratio has risen for three consecutive months, suggesting positive demand expectations among emerging enterprises [2][10]. - **Price Signals**: Purchase prices and sales prices increased by 0.4 and 0.3 points respectively. The sales price index has been on an upward trend since July 2025, with only a brief decline in November 2025 [2][11]. - **Loan Difficulty Indicator**: The loan difficulty index rose by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January [2][11]. Industry Analysis - **Leading Industries**: The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors have maintained high levels of prosperity since October 2025. The biotechnology sector is driven by a surge in patent applications, while the new energy vehicle sector benefits from both domestic and export growth [3][13]. - **Weak Industries**: High-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, and energy conservation sectors have shown weaker performance, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months [3][13]. Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Historical data suggests that the manufacturing PMI typically experiences slight declines in January during years with late Spring Festival dates. The impact of strong exports and concentrated fiscal policies in the previous quarter on January's production preparations remains to be observed [4][17]. Economic Data Overview - The high-frequency data for January appears stable, with strong port data and weak construction and real estate data. Hard data is expected to show decent year-on-year performance due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with results to be published in March [4][21].

Core Viewpoint - The November Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) decreased by 7.0 points to 52.7, which is a larger decline than the seasonal average of 3.0 points from 2014 to 2024, indicating a significant fluctuation related to the sharp rise in October [1][4][5]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI's decline reflects a "V-shaped" fluctuation, with October experiencing a significant rise of 7.3 points [1][3]. - The absolute EPMI value of 52.7 is below the historical average of 55.0 for November, marking it as the third lowest in the historical context [5]. Changes Compared to Previous Months - Compared to September, November saw a rebound in production but a decline in demand. Key changes include: 1. Production index decreased by 10.3 points, while procurement volume fell by 6.5 points [8]. 2. Prices continued to rise, with purchase prices and sales prices up by 2.2 and 3.0 points respectively compared to September [8]. 3. The financing environment improved, with loan difficulty indicators down by 0.6 points from September [8]. 4. Corporate investment and R&D activities remained cautious, with indicators for expectations, R&D activities, and new product investments down by 2.8, 2.2, and 2.2 points respectively compared to September [8]. Sector Performance - Among the seven emerging industries, the highest EPMI was recorded in the new energy vehicle sector, followed by new generation information technology and biotechnology, both maintaining a level above 55 for two consecutive months [11]. - The marginal improvements in the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors exceeded 5 points compared to September [11]. Upcoming Data and Market Implications - The manufacturing PMI data will be released at the end of the month, which is expected to provide more critical insights than the EPMI, as the latter is limited to emerging industries [15][18]. - Current high-frequency data indicates a weakening trend in durable goods retail, real estate sales, and construction workload compared to October [15][16]. Conclusion - The November EPMI reflects a seasonal slowdown without providing strong directional guidance. The upcoming PMI and BCI data are anticipated to be more significant for financial markets, which are currently experiencing volatility due to a lack of new fundamental guidance [18].

Core Viewpoint - The October EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) significantly increased by 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical rise for this month, driven by seasonal factors and improved economic conditions in various sectors [1][6][7]. Group 1: EPMI Overview - The October EPMI reached 59.7, which is above the seasonal average and indicates a recovery in economic sentiment [1][8]. - The historical average for October EPMI from 2014 to 2024 is 58.2, with this month's value exceeding the seasonal mean by 1.5 points [8][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key indicators for production, product orders, and export orders rose by 11.7, 12.9, and 8.3 points respectively in October [2][11]. - The supply-demand ratio turned negative at -0.5, indicating that new orders are outpacing production [2][12]. - Price indicators for purchases and sales increased by 3.3 and 3.5 points respectively, contributing to a 9.6-point rise in profit indicators [2][13]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The sectors of new generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology showed significant growth, with increases of 14.9, 12.2, and 8.9 points respectively [3][18]. - Export orders for biotechnology, new generation information technology, and new energy vehicles rose by over 10 points, with biotechnology exports recovering to above 70 [3][19]. - The new energy sector saw a 6.6-point increase, likely influenced by positive price changes [3][20]. Group 4: Economic Context - The third quarter GDP growth slowed to 4.8% from 5.3% in the first half of the year, with production showing signs of recovery in October [5][27]. - The upcoming PMI data is expected to reflect a typical seasonal decline, but the EPMI's rise suggests underlying economic support [4][23].

Core Viewpoint - The July Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for strategic emerging industries shows a seasonal decline but has turned positive year-on-year, indicating resilience in industrial prosperity despite a slight month-on-month decrease [1][5][6]. Group 1: PMI Overview - The July EPMI decreased by 1.1 points to 46.8, with only the new materials sector remaining in the expansion zone among seven sub-industries, reflecting a reduction in the number of expanding sectors [1][5][9]. - The absolute prosperity level is 0.7 points higher than the same period last year, marking a transition from negative to positive year-on-year growth [1][8]. Group 2: Sub-Indicators Analysis - In July, production, product orders, and export orders in emerging industries fell by 1.3, 1.5, and 2.2 points respectively, with export orders declining for two consecutive months [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio remained stable at 2.2, fluctuating within a narrow range for five months [2][12]. - Financing conditions improved, with the difficulty of obtaining loans decreasing by 1.4 points in July [2][14]. - A notable positive signal is the stabilization of sales prices, which increased by 1.7 points, while purchase prices continued to decline [2][14]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The new materials sector has shown a continuous increase in prosperity for three months, with a July index above 50, indicating strong performance compared to other sectors [3][17]. - High-end equipment manufacturing and energy-saving environmental protection sectors maintained resilience, while the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors saw a decline in prosperity [3][17]. - Export orders for biotechnology and new energy vehicles fell significantly, by 17.7 and 10.1 points respectively [3][20]. Group 4: Market Implications - The EPMI data suggests a generally positive impact on the market, with the month-on-month decline being anticipated and the year-on-year increase indicating a slope lower than seasonal averages [4][22]. - The shift in key industry sales price indices from decline to increase reflects the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies in stabilizing nominal growth [4][22].

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) fell by 3.1 points to 47.9 in June, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2014, indicating a weakening economic environment in the traditional manufacturing off-season [1][5][6]. Group 1: EPMI and Economic Indicators - The EPMI's decline is slightly greater than the seasonal average decline of 1.1 points observed from 2014 to 2024 [1][7]. - The absolute value of 47.9 is 1.4 points lower than the same period last year, reflecting a significant downturn in emerging industries [8][9]. - Among seven sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries, only two are in the expansion zone, a decrease of one from May [9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Production and product order indices fell by 5.5 and 6.0 points respectively in June [2][11]. - The production-to-order ratio increased to 2.0, indicating that demand is declining faster than supply, although it remains below the three-year average [2][12]. - Export orders decreased by 6.6 points, which is a larger drop than overall orders, suggesting a potential downward adjustment in export growth [2][11]. - Purchasing and selling prices fell by 2.4 and 1.2 points respectively, continuing a three-month trend of decline [2][13]. - Research and development activities increased by 2.1 points, ending a three-month decline, but new product launches have decreased for four consecutive months [2][15]. Group 3: Sector Performance - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone, with new materials leading for two months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][16]. - The biotechnology sector showed a recovery after two months of decline, while other sectors experienced a slowdown in June [3][16]. - The electric vehicle sector saw a significant drop in production metrics, which was greater than the change in demand, possibly linked to strict accounting periods [3][15][17]. Group 4: Traditional vs. New Industries - The economy can be simplified into "traditional industries + new industries," with traditional industrial operating rates showing divergence [3][18]. - The steel and coking sectors have lower operating rates compared to May, while the chemical industry has seen some recovery [3][18]. - The EPMI data suggests that the manufacturing PMI may also see a slight decline in June [3][18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The trends in EPMI, PMI, and BCI since the beginning of the year show a gradual increase until March, followed by a pullback in April and stabilization in May [4][18]. - The real estate market's performance and the potential for construction industry counter-cyclical support will be critical moving forward [4][18].