放量之后迎来调整！ 经历了8月25日的3万亿元爆量之后，8月26日早盘，A股市场突然迎来风格变化。近期表现强劲的科创板指数一度大跌超2%， 北证指数一度跌近1%，几个主要指数全线走弱，寒武纪一度大跌超6%。近期偏弱的微盘股指数反而意外地大涨超1%。A50和 港股也于早盘迎来调整。临近午盘时，涨势较好的30年国债期货也跳水。 截至午间收盘，三大指数集体翻红。具体来看，沪指涨0.11%，深成指涨0.73%，创业板指涨0.21%。 值得注意的是，今天可能还会有一个事件扰动市场短期走势，MSCI中国指数调整共纳入14只个股，剔除17只个股，上述所有 调整将于8月26日收盘后实施。这可能会令市场出现异动。另一方面，近期人民币拉升，8月份以来最大涨幅已超500点。这可 能会给资产价格提供相应的支撑。 那么，后市如何演绎？ 风格变化 与此前大涨时的几个交易日不同，今天科技大象休息，微盘股表现则相对强势，万得微盘股指数涨幅一度超1%。 后续的预期 目前市场存在一致预期，即九月份市场的波动率可能会提升。但很多时候，当出现这种预期的时候，市场会提前反应。因 此，近期的波动率即有上升的迹象，同时成交量也大幅放大。 分析人士认为，后 ...

中国央行上海总部：在利率定价机制安排方面，上海市商业性个人住房贷款利率不再区分首套住房和二套住房。 https://t.co/mOoxCxONgP外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):上海发布《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》明确进一步调减住房限购政策。本地户籍及社保个税缴满1年的非户籍居民在外环外购房不限套数（成年单身限购）。 https://t.co/GksXCJdXvN ...

金融界8月25日消息 截至午间收盘，港股恒生指数涨2.08%，报25866.49点，恒生科技指数涨3.1%，报 5822.51点，国企指数涨2.05%，报9266.29点，红筹指数涨1.65%，报4417.16点。 稀土概念股大涨，金力永磁放量涨超11%，铜、黄金等有色金属股跟涨。工业和信息化部、国家发展改 革委、自然资源部发布《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》。暂行办法指出，稀土生产 企业违反本办法规定，或者拒绝、阻碍监督检查部门依法履行监督检查职责的，由县级以上人民政府工 业和信息化、自然资源主管部门按照职责分工责令改正，依照《中华人民共和国矿产资源法》《稀土管 理条例》等法律、行政法规的规定予以处罚。稀土生产企业违反本办法规定，受到行政处罚的，核减下 一年度总量控制指标。工业和信息化、自然资源、发展改革主管部门工作人员在稀土开采和稀土冶炼分 离总量调控管理工作中滥用职权、玩忽职守、徇私舞弊的，依法给予处分。违反本办法规定，构成违反 治安管理行为的，依法给予治安管理处罚；构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。 内房股集体拉升，万科企业涨超15%领衔。消息面上，8月22日晚间，万科（000002.SZ） ...

上海发布《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》明确进一步调减住房限购政策。本地户籍及社保个税缴满1年的非户籍居民在外环外购房不限套数（成年单身限购）。首套最高贷款额度从160万元提高至184万元，多子女家庭首套上浮比例可叠加计算，从192万元提高至216万元；二套最高贷款额度从130万元提高至149.5万元。 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 24 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W34：LPR 报价持平，本周二手房成交同比+9.5% 8 月 5 年期以上 LPR 报 3.5%，与上月持平。据央行，8 月 20 日贷款市 场报价利率（LPR）为：1 年期 LPR 为 3.0%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%， 在 5 月调降 10bp 后连续 3 个月持平。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.5%，落后沪深 300 指 数 3.68 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 新房：本周30个城市新房成交面积为157.0万平方米，环比提升16.7%， 同比下降 16.1%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 39.0 万方，环比 +8.2%，同比-22.1%；样本二线城市为 89.5 万方，环比+47.6%，同比- 10.9%；样本三线城市为 28.5 万方，环比-24.7%，同比-22.3%。从今年 累计 34 周新房成交面积同比看，样本 30 城共计 6389.0 万方，同比-2.1%； 一线城市为 1685.2 万方，同比 2.4%；二线城市为 3 ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The economic data for July 2025 shows that the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 4.6% and previous value of 4.8% [4] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 1.6%, also below expectations [4] Company Research: Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. (603799) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.711 billion yuan, up 62.26% [15] - Nickel product shipments increased significantly, with nickel product output reaching 139,400 tons, a year-on-year growth of 83.91% [16] - The company has made significant progress in cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a sales net profit margin of 9.33%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year [16] Industry Research: Metal Industry - Frequent bidding by major magnetic material manufacturers is expected to boost the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide [10] - The steel industry is facing supply constraints due to tightened production policies, but demand may be impacted by construction site shutdowns [11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate due to insufficient fundamental support, with potential demand driven by seasonal inventory accumulation [11] - The rare earth market is seeing improved inquiry conditions, with light rare earth prices expected to be supported in the short term [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new home prices have seen a smaller decline compared to second-hand homes, with a national average drop of 10.8% from the 2021 peak and a 2.0% decline from the 2024 "930" benchmark [11][12]. - The second-hand home market is facing more significant challenges, with prices down 18.7% from the 2021 peak and 3.8% from the 2024 "930" benchmark, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for many cities [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy changes and their impact on the market, suggesting that the real estate sector serves as an economic barometer [4]. Summary by Sections National Housing Price Overview - As of July, new home prices in 70 cities have decreased by 10.8% from the 2021 peak, with Shanghai showing the strongest performance [11]. - Second-hand home prices have nearly erased the slight gains made since last year, with many cities falling below the "930" benchmark [12]. Transaction Trends - In the latest week, new home sales across 30 cities totaled 132.7 million square meters, reflecting a 9.6% increase month-on-month but a 12.8% decrease year-on-year [27]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities reached 178.7 million square meters, up 3.8% from the previous week but down 2.8% year-on-year [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly those with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from policy changes, including companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Development [4]. - The report advocates for a city selection strategy that favors first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better sales performance [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The recent policy changes in Beijing, which relax restrictions on home purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road, are expected to aid in inventory reduction in suburban areas, although the overall impact may be limited [11][12]. - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a key focus for investment [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land management and disposal of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Changes - Beijing's new policy allows residents with two years of social security contributions to purchase homes without quantity restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, differing from other cities that have fully lifted purchase limits [11][12]. 2. Market Review - The real estate index increased by 2.2% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.93 percentage points, ranking 16th among 31 sectors [2][13]. - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 120.5 million square meters, down 35.0% month-on-month and 19.3% year-on-year [22]. - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities totaled 171.1 million square meters, down 7.2% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [32]. 3. Credit Market - A total of 22 corporate bonds were issued this week, raising 228.70 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of 159.94 billion yuan [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, including both H-shares and A-shares, as well as local state-owned enterprises and property management firms [4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 122 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on August 8, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan due to 126 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In the week, the People's Bank of China performed a total of 1,126.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1,663.2 billion yuan maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products remained stable, with the overnight Shibor down by 0.06 basis points to 1.3144%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 0.16 basis points to 1.4356% [1][2] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term funding rates were mostly unchanged from the previous day, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates decreasing by 0.3 basis points and 0.9 basis points, respectively [6] - The weighted average rates for DR007 and R007 fell by 2.6 basis points and 2.7 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes increasing [6] - The market showed a relaxed funding environment on August 8, with overnight lending rates around 1.30% and deposit rates for certificates of deposit ranging from 1.35% to 1.38% [11] Group 3 - On August 8, a total of 148 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 274.11 billion yuan [12] - The primary market for certificates of deposit continued to show strong demand, while the secondary market exhibited fluctuations with slight declines in yield rates [12] - The 1-month national bank certificate of deposit closed at 1.46%, down approximately 2.5 basis points from the previous day [12]

晨会纪要（2025/08/06） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.06） 固定收益研究 震荡偏强趋势下，继续选择高等级拉久期——信用债 8 月投资策略展望 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 1、核心观点 7 月各期限的发行指导利率全部下行，整体变化幅度为-20 BP 至-1 BP。7 月信用债发行规模环比小幅下降， 公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额环比减少，企业债、短期融资券发行金额环比增加；信用债净融资 额环比增加，中期票据净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、 中期票据、短期融资券净融资额为正。二级市场方面，7 月信用债成交规模环比增长，企业债、定向工具成 交金额减少，其余品种成交金额增加。收益率方面，7 月信用债收益率整体呈先下后上再下的波动态势，月 度均值较 6 月整体下行。信用利差方面，7 月信用利差走势与收益率趋同，整体呈先收窄后走阔再收窄趋势， ...