新华财经北京1月21日电中国国际经济交流中心近日举办"经济每月谈"活动，业内专家就如何推动投资 止跌回稳展开热议。 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长、学术委员会主任王一鸣认为，我国的投资空间仍然较大，特别是传统 产业技术改造、关键核心技术攻关、城市更新改造、乡村基础设施建设、公共服务等短板领域仍有巨大 投资需求潜力。"'十五五'规划建设布局将全面展开，未来5年打造新兴支柱产业，加快新能源、新材 料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展，将催生数个万亿级甚至更大规模的市场，这就意 味着我国产业发展还有很大的投资空间。"他说。 关于进一步扩大投资，王一鸣提出了六方面建议。"建议靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目；提高 民生类项目投资比重；激发民间投资的信心和活力；完善价格形成机制以激发投资活力；创新地方政府 投融资机制；充分挖掘重点地区的投资增长潜力。" 北京大成企业研究院副院长陈永杰对如何激发民间投资活力提出了多项政策建议。"建议拓宽民企投资 空间，实现重点领域全面开放、投资机会清单常态化、支持企业跨区域和出海投资；建议降低民企投资 成本，强化税收激励政策，简化投资审批流程，降低要素成本；建议稳定民企投资预 ...

格隆汇1月12日｜据一财，第三十届（2026年度）中国资本市场论坛上，专家认为，实施更加积极的财 政政策，要把政府债务管理作为2026年财政工作的重点，要坚持"投资于物"和"投资于人"的紧密结合， 推动投资止跌回稳。 ...

Investment Outlook - Fixed asset investment is expected to stabilize in 2026, with a significant decline in growth observed in the second half of 2025, where the investment growth rate fell to -6.2% in Q3, down 8.2 percentage points from Q2[12] - Despite the decline, capital formation growth remained positive, with a Q3 growth rate of 2.3%, only slightly down from 3.2% in Q2[12] - Electricity consumption in the secondary and tertiary industries has shown a recovery since July, indicating resilient investment momentum[10] Policy Support - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan was fully deployed by the end of October 2025, expected to support approximately 7 trillion yuan in total investment across over 2,300 projects[41] - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 emphasized the need for investment stabilization in 2026, with clear directives for increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage[41] Economic Stability - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to drive significant project approvals and construction in 2026, potentially accelerating investment growth[10] - Local government leadership changes in 2026 may further emphasize economic stability, historically correlating with a rebound in economic growth prior to national congresses[10] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a "front-loaded" approach in 2026, with a rapid issuance of new special bonds anticipated in the first half of the year[46] - Monetary policy is likely to align with fiscal measures, actively supporting economic growth in the first half of 2026, similar to actions taken in 2025[51]

Group 1: State-Owned Enterprise Reform - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to deepen state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, focusing on optimizing the layout of state-owned economy, improving modern enterprise systems, and enhancing state asset supervision efficiency [1][2] - Key areas of reform include functional, structural, and institutional reforms, with a focus on better utilizing market forces to fulfill national strategic missions and improving the evaluation system for SOEs [2][3] Group 2: Urban and Rural Resident Income Increase Plan - The central economic work conference proposed a new income increase plan for urban and rural residents, transitioning from a focus on low-income groups to a broader approach covering all residents [3][4] - The plan aims to enhance consumer spending and stabilize the middle-income group while addressing income disparities and illegal income [3][4] Group 3: Investment Stabilization - The conference highlighted the need to stabilize investment, suggesting an increase in central budget investment and optimizing the use of local government special bonds [6][7] - Investment growth has been declining due to various factors, including real estate market adjustments and competition, with fixed asset investment down by 2.6% year-on-year [6][7] Group 4: Education Resource Allocation - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests improving education resource allocation in response to demographic changes, particularly by expanding ordinary high school enrollment to address the shortage of high school places [8][9] - The number of ordinary high school enrollments is set to exceed 10 million in 2024, with a recorded admission rate of over 60% [8][9] Group 5: Long-Term Care Insurance Implementation - Long-term care insurance (LTCI) is set to be implemented nationwide in 2026 after a decade of trials, aiming to cover nearly 3 billion people and provide equal protection for all disabled individuals [16][17] - The LTCI is expected to inject significant funds into the market, potentially exceeding 100 billion annually, thus stimulating the long-term care service industry [17] Group 6: Birth Policy Optimization - The central economic work conference stressed the need for a comprehensive optimization of birth policies to stabilize the declining birth rate, with a focus on financial support and service system improvements [18][19] - New measures include expanding maternity insurance coverage to flexible workers and enhancing public services for early childhood care [19][20]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment (FAI) in 2025, with infrastructure investment becoming a drag on the economy, prompting the economic work conference to emphasize "investment stabilization" [2][9] - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that "active fiscal policies" will drive investment stabilization, with a focus on structural opportunities in the construction sector, including western infrastructure, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure [2][9] Group 1: Economic Overview - In 2025, FAI experienced a comprehensive decline, with infrastructure investment significantly dropping, particularly in the third quarter, where narrow infrastructure investment turned negative, declining by 8.7% in October [23][28] - The report notes that the actual situation of infrastructure investment may have deteriorated earlier than expected in 2024, despite apparent growth in infrastructure investment [30][34] Group 2: Structural Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the construction sector, particularly in western infrastructure projects, overseas engineering, and new infrastructure driven by technological advancements [45][46] - Specific recommendations include focusing on high-dividend leading companies in western regions, such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, and exploring opportunities in Xinjiang and Tibet [9][10] Group 3: Overseas Engineering - The report indicates that overseas engineering demand remains strong, driven by favorable client structures and business models of central enterprises, as well as private enterprises expanding into international markets [10][11] - Key recommendations for overseas engineering include companies like China National Materials, Jianghe Group, and Jinggong Steel Structure, which are expected to perform well in terms of earnings and dividends [10][11] Group 4: New Infrastructure - The report identifies several sectors within new infrastructure that are expected to see growth, including clean rooms, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and low-altitude economy, driven by technological advancements and safety demands [10][11] - Specific companies recommended in these sectors include Yaxiang Integration for clean rooms and China Nuclear Engineering for nuclear power projects [10][11] Group 5: Traditional Demand - The report notes that traditional demand, particularly in real estate, remains under pressure, with new and second-hand housing demand still facing challenges [11] - It highlights the potential turning point for companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which may benefit from improved cyclical sentiment and operational efficiency [11] Group 6: Reform and Restructuring - The report discusses the need for deep reforms in the construction sector to enhance global competitiveness, focusing on identifying quality assets and new business opportunities for central enterprises [12][12] - It also emphasizes the importance of market value management and the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the construction industry [12][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the overall requirements and policy direction for economic work in the coming year, emphasizing the need to stabilize investment and address both old problems and new challenges in the economy [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Investment has faced downward pressure since 2025, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November [1] - While traditional engines like real estate and infrastructure are weakening, investments in high-tech sectors such as clean energy and aerospace are rapidly increasing, indicating a positive shift in investment structure [1] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Investment should be directed towards key areas that support long-term national development, including national security, industrial chain resilience, technological innovation, urban renewal, infrastructure, and energy [2] - The construction of the Chengdu-Shanghai high-speed railway exemplifies how major infrastructure projects can enhance regional economic coordination and improve public convenience, yielding significant indirect investment returns [2] Group 3: Addressing Social Needs - Increasing investment in public services such as education, healthcare, and disaster prevention is crucial for improving people's livelihoods and expanding domestic demand [3] - Investment in green transformation areas like energy conservation, carbon reduction, and ecological protection is essential for achieving carbon neutrality goals and enhancing competitive advantages [3] Group 4: Investment Sources - Government investment plays a critical role in guiding overall investment, particularly in public sectors where market forces may not allocate resources effectively [4] - Private investment, which accounts for over half of total fixed asset investment, is vital for sustaining investment growth, and measures must be taken to alleviate barriers and enhance confidence among private investors [4] Group 5: Policy Coordination - Accurate understanding of "what to invest in" and "who will invest" is essential for creating a cohesive policy approach that stimulates both government and private investment [5] - The focus should be on achieving short-term stabilization while also promoting long-term high-quality development, ensuring that investment recovery can contribute to economic transformation [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing investment to drive economic growth, highlighting the need for targeted investment strategies to address both immediate and long-term economic challenges [1]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Since 2025, there has been increasing downward pressure on investment, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November [1]. - Traditional investment engines like real estate and infrastructure are weakening, while investments in high-tech sectors such as clean energy and aerospace are rapidly increasing, indicating a positive shift in investment structure [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Investment should be directed towards key areas that support national long-term development, including national security, industrial chain resilience, technological innovation, urban renewal, infrastructure, and energy [2]. - The construction of the Shanghai-Chongqing Railway serves as an example of how infrastructure projects can enhance regional economic coordination and improve public convenience, yielding significant indirect investment returns [2]. Group 3: Addressing Social Needs - Investments in public services such as education, healthcare, elderly care, and disaster prevention are crucial for improving people's livelihoods and expanding domestic demand [3]. Group 4: Green Transition - There is significant investment potential in energy-saving, carbon reduction, ecological protection, and clean energy sectors, which are essential for achieving carbon neutrality goals and enhancing China's competitive advantage [4]. Group 5: Investment Sources - Government investment plays a crucial role in guiding overall investment strategies, particularly in areas where the market cannot effectively allocate resources [4]. - Private investment, which accounts for over half of total fixed asset investment, is vital for sustaining investment growth, and its activation requires practical measures to enhance market access and address barriers [5]. Group 6: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate private investment, it is essential to implement concrete measures that improve market conditions, provide stable policy expectations, and ensure fair market environments [5]. - The article suggests that a coordinated policy approach focusing on both immediate stabilization and long-term high-quality development can effectively revitalize investment [5].

Core Insights - Investment is one of the "three driving forces" for economic growth, crucial for expanding domestic demand and supporting long-term stability and welfare [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," reflecting a deep understanding of the current economic situation and a commitment to growth and transformation [1] Investment Trends - Since 2025, there has been increasing downward pressure on investment, with fixed asset investment growth declining by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November [1] - Traditional engines like real estate and infrastructure are weakening, while investments in high-tech sectors such as clean energy and aerospace are rapidly increasing, indicating a positive shift in investment structure [1] Strategic Focus Areas - Investment should be directed towards key areas such as national security, industrial chain resilience, technological innovation, urban renewal, infrastructure, and energy [2] - Projects like the Shanghai-Chongqing Railway exemplify how infrastructure can enhance regional economic coordination and improve public convenience, yielding significant indirect investment returns [2] Investment Sources - Government investment plays a crucial role as a "navigator," guiding resources to public sectors and key areas where the market cannot effectively allocate resources [3] - Private investment, which accounts for over half of total fixed asset investment, is essential for maintaining investment growth resilience [3] Enhancing Private Investment - To activate private investment, practical measures are needed to expand market access, eliminate policy barriers, and strengthen rights protection [4] - The long-term positive economic fundamentals, potential for industrial upgrades, regional coordination, green transformation opportunities, and demand for public welfare collectively form a substantial potential pool for investment growth [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the importance of adhering to a stable yet progressive economic strategy, focusing on quality and efficiency, while implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][13][19] - The report highlights the significance of "performance view" and "local adaptation" as focal points of the recent economic work conference, indicating that local governments should avoid blind pursuit of trends and instead develop industries based on regional characteristics and advantages [2][12][17] - The report suggests a short-duration investment strategy for local governments that effectively address hidden debts, particularly those that can resolve these issues promptly and are expected to issue special bonds for project construction [3][27][37] Group 2 - The report outlines key tasks for local governments in 2026, including maintaining domestic demand as the primary driver, enhancing infrastructure investment, and optimizing the use of special bonds and new policy financial tools to stimulate private investment [19][25][26] - It discusses the need for a unified national market construction regulation to address "involution" competition and promote fair competition among local governments and enterprises, which is expected to be implemented in 2026 [9][24][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing local government debt risks through proactive measures, including debt restructuring and optimizing financing platforms, to ensure sustainable economic development [27][29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to stabilize investment and enhance the scale of central budget investments, while optimizing the management of local government special bonds and stimulating private investment vitality [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The focus is on combining goal-oriented and problem-oriented approaches, balancing long-term institutional construction with short-term policy adjustments to promote effective investment recovery and economic growth [1] - The importance of planning and feasibility studies for major projects is highlighted, with a call for local governments to make project planning a regular investment management practice [2] Group 2: Urbanization and Rural Revitalization - There is significant potential for investment in urbanization and rural revitalization, with a need to address the mismatch in housing supply and demand, particularly for new residents and young people [3] - Investment in infrastructure such as underground pipelines, consumer infrastructure, and urban renewal projects is encouraged to enhance living conditions and meet housing demands [3] Group 3: Agricultural Investment - Encouragement for industrial capital to invest in rural areas, supporting local financing platforms and real estate developers in agricultural and rural economic projects [4] - The integration of existing policies and new investments is expected to yield a multiplier effect on investment efficiency, with projections for investment growth to exceed 2% next year [4]