据新华社，日本共同社13日报道，高市早苗已决定在23日国会开幕日解散众议院、提前举行大选。若众 议院于1月23日解散，选举日程可能在1月27日发布公告、2月8日投票，或在2月3日发布公告、2月15日 投票。 提前大选引发的最大担忧是预算案通过可能被迫推迟至4月以后。更严重的是，据路透报道，如果新的 债务法案未能及时通过，政府将无法发行足够的债券为2026财年预算提供资金，可能面临类似美国"财 政悬崖"的局面。近四分之一的预算需通过发债来筹集，其中22.9万亿日元将用于弥补赤字。 日本首相高市早苗可能宣布的提前大选正在考验一条持续30余年的市场规律。历史数据显示，自1990年 以来的12次众议院选举中，基准Topix指数在解散国会至选举期间有10次录得涨幅。但这一次，政治不 确定性和"财政悬崖"风险可能成为影响市场走势的关键变量。 这一决定在自民党内部及在野党引发批评。批评者认为高市违背了将应对高物价等民生问题置于优先位 置的承诺，将自民党利益放在了国民利益之前。 历史规律支持短期涨势 彭博汇编的数据显示了选举期间股市的强劲表现。自1990年以来的12次众议院选举中，Topix指数在解 散国会至选举这段时期内有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing significant volatility driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the actions of the Trump administration regarding Venezuela and Iran, which have injected political risks into the global oil market [5][6][22]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Oil prices fluctuated significantly, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $59.50 per barrel, up 0.64%, and Brent crude oil futures at $63.87 per barrel, up 0.84% [7][23]. - The market's focus has shifted from Venezuela to the unrest in Iran, with concerns about potential U.S. military intervention causing oil prices to rise again after an initial drop [5][21]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The Trump administration's interventions in Venezuela have increased U.S. control over key oil resources, creating political uncertainty that affects global oil markets [6][22]. - The situation in Iran remains a significant risk, with the potential for military action by the U.S. contributing to market volatility [5][6][22]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite geopolitical tensions, the actual supply of oil remains adequate, with the physical market in the Middle East showing weakness [6][22]. - The Brent crude oil month spread has recently rebounded, indicating that geopolitical factors are adding a risk premium to oil prices [6][22]. Group 4: Developments in Venezuela - Global commodity traders Vitol and Trafigura have gained an early advantage in controlling Venezuelan oil, surpassing U.S. oil giants who are hesitant due to legal risks [24][25]. - The U.S. government is collaborating with these traders to expedite the flow of Venezuelan oil exports, which is crucial for funding the interim government [24][25]. Group 5: Iranian Situation - Iran claims to have regained control over domestic unrest, which has eased short-term supply concerns, but the geopolitical situation remains fluid [27][28]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country engaging in business with Iran, further complicating the geopolitical landscape [26][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of political risks and macroeconomic data on the USD and JPY, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's independence and the geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, which was below market expectations and weaker than the previously revised figure, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 4.4%, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - The market is divided on the Federal Reserve's short-term policy path, with some expecting aggressive easing due to economic slowdown and political uncertainties, while others see the labor market's resilience as a constraint on such expectations [2] - The USD/JPY pair dipped to around 157 during the Asian session but remained within a low range, influenced by uncertainties in Japan's political environment and monetary policy outlook [2] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe are rising, with the U.S. signaling potential actions regarding Iran, leading to increased regional security risks and affecting overall market risk appetite [3] - The recent decline in the USD reflects a market re-evaluation of institutional and political risks rather than being solely driven by economic data [3] - The JPY is receiving marginal support from geopolitical risk aversion, but domestic political uncertainties and unclear monetary policy timelines continue to exert structural pressure on the currency [3]

Core Insights - The US dollar index experienced a significant decline of 9.5% in 2025, marking its worst performance in eight years, which has implications for international financial markets and individual overseas consumption, education, and travel [2] Group 1: Reasons for Dollar Decline - The primary reasons for the dollar's decline in 2025 are the shift in Federal Reserve policy and political uncertainty. The Fed initiated a rate-cutting cycle in 2025, with expectations for two additional cuts in 2026, surpassing the Fed's own forecasts [3] - The political landscape is also a factor, as former President Trump announced plans to nominate a new Fed chair in January 2026, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed and exacerbating the dollar's downward trend [3] - Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates that since April 2025, the market has maintained a net short position on the dollar, reflecting investor pessimism regarding its future [3] Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - Non-USD currencies showed significant divergence in performance, with European and commodity currencies leading the gains. The euro rose by 13.5% and the British pound by 7.6%, both achieving their best performances in eight years [5] - The Australian dollar surged over 8%, marking its highest increase since 2020, while the New Zealand dollar increased by 3.4%, ending a four-year decline [5] - The Japanese yen's performance was disappointing, remaining flat for the year despite two interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, as the market viewed the pace of increases as too cautious [5] Group 3: Market Outlook for 2026 - Analysts generally expect the dollar's weakness to persist into 2026, with Goldman Sachs strategists noting that a stable global economic growth and continued Fed rate cuts will contribute to this trend [8] - European currencies like the euro and pound are anticipated to maintain their strength, while emerging market currencies are also expected to benefit [8] - The yen may see a turnaround, with predictions that if US yields decline, its safe-haven status could recover, potentially rising to 146 against the dollar by Q4 2026 [8] - The onshore Chinese yuan broke the 7.0 mark by the end of 2025, reaching its highest level since May 2023, with expectations for further appreciation in 2026 supported by capital inflows and economic recovery [8]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is projected to decline by approximately 9% in 2025, marking its worst annual performance in eight years, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, narrowing interest rate differentials with other major currencies, and concerns over the US fiscal deficit and political uncertainty [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The primary factors driving the dollar's weakness include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, narrowing interest rate differentials with other major currencies, and concerns regarding the US fiscal deficit and political uncertainty [1] - The actual effective exchange rate index of the dollar was reported at 108.7 in October, down from a record high of 115.1 in January, indicating that the dollar remains overvalued despite the decline [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The market widely anticipates that the dollar will continue to weaken in 2026, with the rationale being a potential convergence in global growth, a narrowing of the US economic growth advantage, and factors such as fiscal stimulus in Germany and economic improvement in the Eurozone that may reduce the dollar's attractiveness [1] - Divergence in monetary policy is another significant source of pressure, with expectations that the new Federal Reserve chair may adopt a more dovish stance and continue rate cuts, while other major central banks like the European Central Bank may maintain rates or even consider rate hikes [1] Group 3: Short-term Considerations - Investors caution that despite the long-term bearish trend for the dollar, there may be short-term rebounds due to inflows into the stock market driven by the AI boom [1] - Any significant blow to US economic growth could serve as an additional drag on the dollar [1]

Core Viewpoints - The fragility of capital expenditure will manifest through deteriorating liquidity, with potential financial risks arising from interconnected transactions and off-balance-sheet financing. The "political-liquidity-narrative" framework is identified as a key source of external volatility [2] Group 1: AI Investment Bubble - Many believe that there is no bubble in the AI investment sector, citing the healthy revenue and cash flow of tech giants compared to the dot-com bubble era. However, this comparison overlooks fundamental differences in scale and concentration of AI investments today [7] - The value of AI in enhancing productivity across industries will take a long time to materialize, as organizational and process changes lag behind technological advancements. AI currently serves more as a predictive tool rather than a decision-making replacement [9] - Despite the long-term nature of AI's impact on productivity, investment in AI has become a market consensus, driven by various stakeholders including tech companies, financial institutions, and media [10] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Vulnerability - From Q3 2025, capital expenditures among major tech firms investing heavily in AI reached $105.77 billion, a 72.9% year-on-year increase. This surge raises concerns about cash flow sustainability, with the average Capex/CFO ratio rising by 29.7 percentage points to 75.2% [24] - Projections indicate that by Q2 2027, the average Capex/CFO ratio for these firms could reach 95.9%, nearing the peak levels seen during the dot-com bubble [25] - The potential for negative free cash flow could deepen vulnerabilities, particularly for firms like Meta, which may face a cash flow crisis by Q4 2026 [32] Group 3: Financial Risks from High Leverage and Off-Balance-Sheet Financing - In the first 11 months of the year, the total issuance of corporate bonds by hyperscaler companies reached $103.8 billion, significantly exceeding previous years. This surge has led to increased bond spreads and heightened financial risk [39] - Companies like Meta are employing off-balance-sheet financing strategies to manage massive capital needs while maintaining favorable financial statements. This approach poses significant risks, especially if technology bubbles burst or market conditions shift [42][43] Group 4: Political Uncertainty and Liquidity Risks - The sustainability of the AI narrative is closely tied to liquidity conditions, which have been bolstered by recent interest rate cuts. However, political uncertainties, particularly surrounding upcoming elections, could tighten liquidity and impact market sentiment [44][48] - The interplay between political decisions and liquidity will likely lead to increased volatility in the stock market, particularly for AI-related investments [50]

Group 1 - The overall outlook for precious metals is expected to continue a strong oscillation at high levels in the short term, driven by various market factors [1] - The expectation of the U.S. government reopening and the return of interest rate cut expectations are contributing to a bullish sentiment for gold prices [2] - The retirement of Atlanta Fed President Bostic is likely to lead to a more dovish stance within the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold and silver prices [2] Group 2 - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are a significant factor pushing gold prices higher, with potential implications for a $500 increase in gold prices if the Supreme Court rules in favor of the President [3] - Increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties are creating upward pressure on gold prices, as investors seek alternatives to U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - The recent technical correction in gold prices has alleviated overbought market conditions, contributing to a renewed bullish momentum [3]

Core Viewpoint - The French economy is expected to experience slight growth in the fourth quarter, although political uncertainty has led to a slowdown in expansion speed in November [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The French central bank indicates that significant budget votes and a challenging international environment will likely slow down major investment projects in November [1] - Industrial order volumes are generally low due to the impact of the political situation, contributing to high levels of uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve identifies political uncertainty and geopolitical risks as the most prominent concerns for stability [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's assessment highlights that political uncertainty is a significant factor affecting market stability [1] - Geopolitical risks are also noted as a critical concern that could impact economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The political instability in France is significantly impacting the burgeoning tech industry, raising concerns about the future of innovation and investment in the country [5][8][9]. Group 1: Political Instability and Its Impact - The recent appointment of Prime Minister Le Cornu and the formation of a new government face immediate resistance from opposition parties, indicating a turbulent political environment [4][11]. - France's political landscape has been described as "Italianized" and "Japanese," with a lack of stable governance affecting the tech sector's growth and innovation [5][10]. - The ongoing political crisis is seen as both institutional and economic, leading to a loss of confidence among investors and difficulties for startups in hiring and securing funding [8][9]. Group 2: Government Initiatives and Challenges - The "France 2030" plan, which aims to enhance industrial competitiveness and technological advancement with a budget of €54 billion over five years, has faced challenges due to the political climate [7][10]. - Despite previous successes in the tech sector, the current government instability is causing concern among startups about the future of innovation funding and operational stability [8][9]. - The recent changes in key government positions, including the Minister of AI and Digital Affairs, reflect the ongoing turmoil and its potential negative effects on the tech industry [9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The new government must address the urgent need for political stability to restore confidence among businesses and investors, which is crucial for the continued growth of the tech sector [8][11]. - The upcoming budget draft, due by October 15, is a critical task for the new administration, with implications for economic policy and investor sentiment [12][13].