由于日本自民党目前仍在日本国会保持第一大党地位，政界人士普遍预计高市早苗将在几天之后的首相 指名选举中成为日本首位女性首相。 近期在全球范围火热所谓的"高市早苗交易"即指代日本自民党新总裁高市早苗胜选后，金融市场对其重 启以"安倍经济学"为核心政策的预期引发股债汇市剧烈波动;"高市早苗交易"主要体现为日本股市闻讯 迅速飙升、日元持续贬值及"日元套利交易"重启，因此押注"高市早苗交易"逻辑基本上等同于押注"更 强劲财政刺激、产业扶持与温和货币政策"的日本再通胀组合——做多日股、空日元、避长久期。 智通财经APP获悉，随着与日本自民党新任总裁高市早苗所挂钩的"高市早苗交易"席卷全球，来自日本 最大规模券商的顶级策略师们正在大幅上调对于日本股市蓝筹股基准指数——日经225指数的年末目标 点位，他们的核心逻辑在于——押注新当选的执政党领袖高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi)即将推出大规模的财 政刺激措施，进而将推动这一蓝筹基准指数屡创历史新高，并且押注该指数有望触及5万点这一史诗级 的创纪录关口。 现年64岁的高市是一名保守民族主义者，将英国前首相玛格丽特·撒切尔列为其榜样之一。她长期以来 是曾遭暗杀的日本任期最 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that market volatility is diminishing, with hedge funds and large speculators betting heavily on continued calm, leading to unprecedented short positions in the VIX [1] - The CFTC data shows that as of the week ending August 19, speculators held a net short position of 92,786 contracts in VIX futures, the highest level since September 2022 [1] - Chris Murphy from Susquehanna highlights that extreme positions may reflect market confidence or complacency, warning that unexpected market volatility could force traders to cover their positions, amplifying market turmoil [2] Group 2 - The VIX index remains below 15, recently hitting a year-to-date low, which is approximately 24% lower than the average over the past year [5] - Following Fed Chair Powell's reinforcement of September rate cut expectations at the Jackson Hole conference, U.S. stocks rebounded significantly, further lowering market fear indicators [5] - Analysts caution that historical patterns suggest that "eerie calm" in the market, combined with extreme positions, often precedes a new wave of volatility, indicating potential hidden risks beneath low volatility [5]

Group 1 - Concerns over fiscal expansion and weakening investor demand, combined with rising US Treasury yields, have led to a surge in long-term Japanese government bond yields to multi-decade highs [1][4] - The 20-year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 30-year yield climbed to 3.185%, nearly matching its peak from May [4] - Japan's public debt exceeds 260% of GDP, with core inflation consistently above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for seven months, prompting expectations of a shift in monetary policy [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic investors, including life insurance companies, have reduced their holdings of Japanese government bonds by 1.35 trillion yen since October 2024, indicating a retreat from the market [5] - Foreign investment in long-term Japanese bonds has also decreased significantly, with net purchases dropping to 480 billion yen in July, one-third of the previous month’s level [5] - The rising yields have led Japanese companies to avoid issuing long-term bonds, with approximately 75% of bond issuances this fiscal year concentrated in maturities of five years or less [7] Group 3 - The trend of issuing short-term bonds may limit immediate interest costs but increases refinancing risks and management expenses for companies [7] - Analysts suggest that the rising bond yields could suppress corporate investment and household spending, impacting Japan's economic growth [9] - The increase in long-term bond yields may also affect global equity markets, as higher borrowing costs could lead to a shift in investor sentiment [9]

Group 1 - Japanese government bond yields have reached multi-decade highs, with the 20-year yield at 2.655% and the 30-year yield at 3.185%, reflecting significant increases from earlier this year [3][5] - The rise in yields is driven by fiscal pressures, political instability, and changes in trade dynamics, leading to a recalibration of investor risk perception [3][4] - Domestic investors, including life insurance companies, have reduced their holdings of Japanese government bonds by 1.35 trillion yen since October 2024, indicating a decline in demand [4] Group 2 - Japanese corporations are shifting from issuing long-term bonds to short-term financing, with approximately 75% of bond issuances this fiscal year concentrated in maturities of 5 years or less [6] - The trend towards shorter maturities is influenced by rising interest rate expectations and increased caution among investors regarding duration risk [6][7] - The increase in short-term bond issuance may lead to higher short-term financing costs and increased refinancing risks for companies [6][7] Group 3 - The rise in Japanese bond yields is expected to impact the Japanese economy and global equity markets, potentially suppressing corporate investment and household spending [7] - The Bank of Japan's decision to slow down its quantitative tightening reflects concerns over the economic risks associated with rising yields [7] - Analysts warn that the surge in bond yields could lead to a significant adjustment in global markets, as the relative attractiveness of equities diminishes [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated appreciation of the US dollar due to significant foreign direct investments, particularly from Japan, which is expected to lead to a depreciation of the yen against the dollar [2][4][10]. Group 1: Foreign Direct Investment Impact - Japan has committed to a direct investment of 80 trillion yen in the US, which is projected to cause a depreciation of the yen by approximately 1 yen for every 1 trillion yen invested [2][6][7]. - The total foreign direct investment commitments from Japan, the EU, and South Korea amount to approximately 1.5 trillion USD, which is nearly 30% of the expected 5.7 trillion USD in overseas direct investment in the US for 2024 [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Despite expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US stock market remains near historical highs, and the 10-year Treasury yield is stable above 4%, indicating a resilient economic outlook [4][6]. - The dollar index stabilized around 96 points in early July, suggesting a halt to the previous downward trend of the dollar against major currencies [4]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics and Trade Relations - The article highlights the potential for the dollar to appreciate further if trade negotiations with China lead to a reduction in the US trade deficit, which would increase demand for the dollar [9][10]. - The "best tariff theory" suggests that increased tariffs on Japanese goods could lead to a stronger dollar, as the demand for yen would decrease, further contributing to the yen's depreciation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen carry trade is at a critical juncture, with the USD/JPY exchange rate remaining above 140 since summer 2023, but pressures from rising Japanese interest rate expectations and U.S. rate cut pressures may lead to a significant downturn in the exchange rate, potentially triggering a global asset allocation chain reaction [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Japan's inflation rate continues to exceed the central bank's target, with Q2 GDP annualized growth at 1%, significantly above market expectations [1]. - The U.S. labor data has been weak, coupled with calls for rate hikes from former President Trump, placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [1]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is expected to rise significantly between 2024 and 2025, currently nearing a technical resistance level of 1.58%, which has been tested multiple times in recent months [1]. - If this resistance level is breached, yields could rise to 1.86%, and the yield spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-year bonds may narrow significantly [1]. Group 3: Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between U.S. and Japanese 10-year bonds has been fluctuating between 2.75% and 2.8% since September 2024, facing a critical support test [4]. - A breakdown of this support could lead to a further decline towards approximately 2.3% [4]. Group 4: Historical Correlation - Historically, the USD/JPY exchange rate has shown a strong correlation with the U.S.-Japan 10-year bond yield spread, but a recent divergence has been noted [7]. - Similar divergence occurred in summer 2024, which eventually led to a convergence of the exchange rate and yield spread [11]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate is approaching a critical support level at 140, and a breach could trigger large-scale unwinding of carry trades that have supported the exchange rate above this level since July 2023 [12]. - The 5-year USD/JPY cross-currency basis swap has formed a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, indicating a decrease in the cost of hedging dollar borrowings, which adds pressure on Japanese investors holding dollar assets [11]. Group 6: Conclusion - Although the correlation between the yen's strength and the Nasdaq 100 index is weaker than last year, historical trends suggest that rising risk aversion typically accompanies yen appreciation [17]. - The market widely anticipates that the prolonged carry trade may come to an end sooner than expected, following multiple tests of key resistance levels in the interest and currency markets [17].

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market has stabilized after a tumultuous year, with the benchmark index experiencing a 12% drop and a market value loss of over $670 billion following an unexpected interest rate hike by the central bank [1] - The Topix index is now hovering near historical highs, having withstood two major declines and a significant unwinding of yen carry trades [1] - Analysts believe the market environment appears more stable, with further interest rate hikes possible, contrasting with previous sentiments [1] Group 2 - Investors remain cautious about the yen's exchange rate, despite a 2% increase against the dollar following disappointing U.S. employment data [3] - The volatility of the yen over the past four weeks is significantly lower compared to a 10% surge in the same period last year, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3] - The market has adapted to the new reality of rising Japanese interest rates, reducing the likelihood of large-scale unwinding of carry trades [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan and the hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have sparked speculation about a new round of yen carry trades during the summer holiday season, but the situation may reverse in light of weak U.S. non-farm payroll data [1] Group 1 - The strong performance of USD/JPY relative to its implied fair value suggests that there is ample room for a decline in USD/JPY [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a bearish position on USD/JPY at 147.70, with a target of 135 and a revised stop-loss level at 151 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yen carry trade, which had previously collapsed, is now regaining popularity among investors due to political uncertainties in Japan and potential changes in monetary policy [1][4]. Group 1: Yen Carry Trade Dynamics - The yen carry trade involves borrowing low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies, and it is seeing renewed interest as political changes may lead to increased fiscal spending and a slower pace of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [1][4]. - Recent elections resulted in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ruling coalition losing its majority in the House of Councillors, which may compel the government to seek support from opposition parties, further benefiting the yen carry trade [1][4]. - The yen carry trade has recently yielded significant returns, with a 13% return from borrowing yen to invest in the New Taiwan Dollar and around 10% returns from investments in the South African Rand and Mexican Peso over the past three months [4]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Speculation about Prime Minister Ishiba's potential resignation is increasing, which could delay interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, thus favoring the yen carry trade [4][5]. - The current benchmark interest rate in Japan is only 0.5%, significantly lower than the Federal Reserve's rate of 4.25%-4.50%, providing a favorable environment for the carry trade [5]. - The political instability surrounding Ishiba's position makes it less likely for the Bank of Japan to raise rates in the near term, which supports the continuation of the yen carry trade [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Hedge funds have recently turned bearish on the yen for the first time in four months, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards the yen carry trade [5]. - Analysts predict that the yen may depreciate further, potentially reaching 153 yen per dollar, which would further support the carry trade [5]. - While some analysts see the carry trade as a viable short-term strategy, concerns about U.S. monetary policy and political pressures may pose risks to this strategy in the long run [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is experiencing significant depreciation against the US dollar and other major currencies, driven by a combination of factors including delayed interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, trade pressures from the US, and concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The yen has depreciated nearly 3% against the US dollar in July, breaking through multiple key levels from 144 to 149 [1]. - The yen has also reached near historical lows against the euro and Swiss franc, and has depreciated over 3% against the Chinese yuan since July 4 [1]. - The trading volume of bullish options for the dollar against the yen has surpassed that of bearish options by more than two times [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The depreciation of the yen is attributed to the Bank of Japan's delayed interest rate normalization, which has weakened market expectations for yen appreciation [2]. - The interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains historically high, with the US Federal Reserve's policy rate exceeding 4%, further pressuring the yen [2]. - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and Japan have not yielded substantial progress, adding to uncertainties regarding Japan's economic outlook [2][3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Ahead of the July 20 Senate elections, there are expectations that the election results may lead to additional fiscal stimulus, which has contributed to the selling of the yen [3]. - Japanese government bonds have seen a sell-off, with the 40-year bond yield rising by 17 basis points, indicating market concerns about fiscal stability [3]. - The combination of external and internal uncertainties is suppressing market bets on a rebound of the yen [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The yen is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, heavily influenced by the monetary policies of both the US and Japan [4]. - If the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts, the narrowing interest rate differential could provide critical support for the yen [4]. - Current market conditions suggest that while the dollar may experience weakness, the yen remains significantly undervalued, with potential for a rebound if trade negotiations progress positively [4][5].