热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 撰文：嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen 2026年首份重磅经济数据即将亮相！ 美国12月非农报告将于周五21：30揭晓，这是自去年9月以来首次在常规时间发布数据，或许能让市场 目光从地缘局势重新聚焦至经济数据和利率前景上来。 对于今晚的非农报告，市场预计新增6万就业人口，前值为6.4万；失业率预计从4.6%降至4.5%（11月失 业率空缺）；时薪增速或升至3.6%。 值得注意的是，由于政府停摆原因导致10月和11月的非农数据于12月17日合并公布，而在当时的统计周 期中存在一定的误差，因此需要格外关注对过去两次数据的修正情况。 从美联储的角度来看，就业市场下行风险已经成为共识（也是市场参与者的共识），其在12月的会议上 维持今年降息一次的预测，但背后却存在严重分歧，无论今晚数据如何都很难消除。与此同时，利率市 场显然更为鸽派，押注今年降息两次，且1月28-29日的会议大概率按兵不动（86%的概率），下次降息 或要等到6月。 从市场角度来看，交易者在假期过后的首次非农公布前显然保持谨慎，股市和贵金属都放缓了上涨的脚 步，比特币始终徘徊在94 ...

Market Performance Review - The Nasdaq 100 Index experienced a monthly decline of 0.73% in December 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately $51.445 billion[9] - The P/E ratio of the Nasdaq 100 Index as of December 31, 2025, was 35.93, placing it at the 88.6% historical percentile since 2011, indicating relatively high valuation levels[14] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 Index increased to 65.29 by December 31, 2025, up from 56.28 at the end of November, suggesting a rise in market risk perception[17] Macro and Policy Analysis - Economic data in December indicated a slowdown, with manufacturing PMI at 48.2 and unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, reinforcing expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve[19] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, provided liquidity support, but internal disagreements on future rate paths limited market optimism[28] - Political pressures, including comments from former President Trump advocating for significant rate cuts, influenced market expectations and pricing logic[31] Industry Dynamics - Concerns over capital expenditure sustainability in the AI sector emerged, with Oracle's disappointing earnings report triggering market anxiety about AI transformation capabilities[36] - The adjustment of Nasdaq 100 Index components to include storage companies like Seagate and Western Digital reflected a structural shift towards AI storage demand, indicating a new investment focus[40] - Micron Technology's earnings exceeded expectations, confirming strong demand for storage solutions and helping to stabilize market sentiment[42] Outlook for January 2026 - Key macroeconomic data releases, including non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be critical in shaping market sentiment and Federal Reserve policy expectations in January 2026[51] - The upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28, 2026, is expected to provide clarity on the monetary policy path for the first half of the year, influencing market volatility[47]

来自Citadel的Scott Rubner补充认为，市场在进入2026年时拥有稳固的宏观基础。创纪录的家庭财富、不断扩大的股权持有比例以及充裕的现金余 额，共同为市场提供了结构性支撑，使得零售投资者的参与度在更高水平上得以维持。 贵金属迎来历史性牛市 与此同时，美股市场呈现出明显的结构性分化。Pasquariello强调，当前股市的定价隐含了对经济周期性加速的预期，但这尚未在宏观经济数据中 得到普遍验证。与之形成鲜明对比的是，债券市场所反映的经济叙事则更为谨慎，股债两大市场的信号分歧已达到近年来的罕见水平。 他指出，美股市场内部六个月实现相关性持续下降，显示出极高的分散度，预计这种低相关性、高分散度的特征将在下一阶段得以延续。 2025年无疑是贵金属与工业金属市场的里程碑年份。黄金价格全年飙升68%，创下1979年以来的最佳年度表现。高盛的Tony Pasquariello分析认 为，这背后可能交织着多重叙事：既可能是对全球财政主导格局的定价，或反映了市场对法定货币体系日益增长的担忧，也可能仅是源于央行需 求的空前强劲。 高盛资深交易员Tony Pasquariello在年终回顾中指出，2025年全球大宗商 ...

外汇市场方面，美元指数昨日收盘脱离日内低点，欧洲早盘时段进一步走高 0.3%，其中对日元的涨幅尤为显著。美国国债全期限收益率同步上 行，10 年期国债收益率上涨逾 2 个基点，至 4.17%。 大宗商品市场迎来一波久违的提振：受特朗普政府下令封锁委内瑞拉油轮运输的消息影响，西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTI）价格上涨 1.4%，有望终结 连续四日下跌的颓势。贵金属价格同样延续强势，黄金价格逼近 4381 美元的历史高点，白银价格刷新约 66 美元的纪录峰值，年内涨幅已高达惊人 的 130%。 市场表现 IC平台据悉，周二，备受市场期待的美国 10-11 月合并非农就业数据正式公布，但这份喜忧参半的报告并未推动市场出现明显波动，美股市场呈现 分化走势。标普 500 指数与道琼斯工业平均指数双双走低，分别下跌 0.2% 和 0.6%；而纳斯达克 100 指数逆势上涨 0.3%，这一涨幅主要由七大科技 龙头股的强势表现支撑。除亚马逊收平外，其余六只龙头股均实现上涨。 明日，美国 11 月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据即将出炉。尽管受 10 月部分数据缺失的影响，这份通胀报告的关注度或不及昨日的就业数据，但仍 值得重点关注。需 ...

• 宽基指数 • 策略指数 • 行业指数 • 主题指数 • 海外指数 1브工什汉 中国互联网50 生物科技 港股通科技 中证医疗 医药 行业指数 中证中药 纳斯达克100 恒生医疗保健 标普500 恒生港股通医疗保健 标普科技 海外指数 恒生生物科技 美股消费 全球医疗 恒生创新药 港股通创新药 地产行业 基建行业 地产 建筑材料 银行行业 金融 证券行业 中证半导体 信息技术 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 之前有朋友问，如何快速查看投资中常用的各个指数呢？ 螺丝钉也做了指数地图，包括各个常见指数的代码、选股规则、行业分布、成分股的市值平均数和中位数等，会定期更新，方便大家查看。 螺丝钉指数地图，主要包括以下几类股票指数： 长图片后面，有详细的介绍。 宽基指数 | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | | 上市交易所 | | | | | 持仓市值排名分布 | | | | 市值平均数 | | 市值中位数 | | 成分股数量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 纳斯达克公司宣布纳斯达克100指数成份股调整将于12月22日生效。 ...

12月5日，近期，比特币与纳斯达克100指数的负相关关系持续存在，这一现象可能显示比特币正接近市 场底部。历史数据显示，当比特币与纳斯达克100的关联度明显下降时，往往对应比特币的低点和潜在 反弹。FXGT认为，这一动态在过去五年中已出现四次，每次都与比特币的重要低点相吻合。当前，比 特币的走势再次偏离传统风险资产，这种分化可能释放出市场即将迎来反转的重要信号。 从数据上看，比特币目前较10月高点下跌約27，而纳斯达克100仅比历史高点低2，显示出明显的背离。 FXGT分析，20日相关系数已经降至-0.43，这意味着短期内比特币与科技股走势呈现强烈反向关系。这 种情况在2021年7月、2023年9月和2024年8月也曾出现，当时比特币均在负相关阶段触及显著低点并随 后展开反弹。这说明，尽管比特币通常被视为高波动科技资产，在风险偏好变化时容易被抛售，但在特 定负相关阶段，其反转的概率显著增加。 12月5日，近期，比特币与纳斯达克100指数的负相关关系持续存在，这一现象可能显示比特币正接近市 场底部。历史数据显示，当比特币与纳斯达克100的关联度明显下降时，往往对应比特币的低点和潜在 反弹。FXGT认为，这一动态 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting defensive and long-term growth potential U.S. stocks in the context of increasing market volatility and uncertainty due to factors like interest rate cuts and global trade wars [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Over the past two decades, the U.S. stock market has experienced significant adjustments, including the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to heightened market volatility [2]. - The Nasdaq U.S. Dividend Growth Index has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 by approximately 1.1 to 1.4 percentage points in annualized returns, showcasing its stability and resilience during various market cycles [2][14]. Group 2: Index Characteristics - The Nasdaq U.S. Dividend Growth Index demonstrates superior downside protection during bear markets, with a win rate increasing from 32% in bull and correction phases to 66% in bear markets, achieving an excess return of 2.2% [4]. - The index employs a quality screening and dividend growth factor strategy, focusing on companies with stable revenue and dividend growth, making it suitable for investors seeking long-term stable returns amid market fluctuations [9][14]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Investors can adopt differentiated risk and return management strategies based on their age, investment goals, and risk tolerance, with three asset allocation combinations corresponding to growth, balanced, and defensive styles [7]. - Increasing the allocation of the Nasdaq U.S. Dividend Growth Index from 25% in a growth style to 75% in a defensive style may slightly sacrifice returns but can reduce annualized volatility by 2%, thereby enhancing the Sharpe ratio of the investment portfolio [7]. Group 4: Fund Performance - As of July 31, 2025, the ETF tracking the Nasdaq U.S. Dividend Growth Index (code RDVY) has reached a total asset management scale of $15 billion, leading its peers in total return over five years and attracting the highest fund inflows in the same period [10]. - The index's sector weight distribution shows a significant allocation to the financial sector, approximately 30%, while maintaining a diversified exposure to the technology sector, which helps reduce volatility during economic downturns [12]. Group 5: Investment Logic - The index employs an equal-weight distribution for its top holdings, ensuring that no single tech giant dominates the portfolio, which has resulted in stable annualized returns exceeding those of the S&P 500 over the past two decades [12][14]. - The systematic factor strategy of the index is designed to achieve long-term stable performance without relying on individual strong stocks, highlighting its robust stock selection logic [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term government bond yields are experiencing a significant and uncontrolled rise, with the 10-year yield approaching the critical 2% level and the 30-year yield soaring to 3.43%, indicating potential global market risks [1][4]. Group 1: Yield Trends - The 10-year government bond yield in Japan has been consistently reaching new highs, driven by a "magnet effect" around the 2% mark, with technical indicators suggesting a strong upward trend [2]. - The 30-year bond yield has shown even stronger performance, breaking through the 3.3% level and indicating substantial upward potential due to a lack of resistance above [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context - Analysts recall the significant market drop in late October last year when Japanese rates began to rise, which coincided with a sharp decline in the Nasdaq 100 index, highlighting a historical correlation between Japanese rates and U.S. equity performance [5][8]. Group 3: Market Volatility - The current rise in Japanese bond yields is characterized by a clear trend, breaking through technical resistance levels and indicating strong upward momentum [6]. - Despite most traders not including Japanese rate changes in their daily risk assessments, this macro-level shift could significantly increase market volatility [9][11]. Group 4: Global Impact - The widening yield spread between Japanese and U.S. 10-year bonds is reshaping global capital allocation, reflecting deepening monetary policy divergence and potentially triggering large-scale cross-border capital flows [12]. - The increase in the yield spread may lead to adjustments in arbitrage trading, particularly affecting yen carry trades, which could have significant implications for global risk asset prices [12]. Group 5: Safe-Haven Assets - The gold market has begun to react to the rise in Japanese long-term yields, indicating that gold prices are sensitive to changes in Japanese government bonds and reflecting growing market concerns about potential risks [14][15]. - The movement in gold prices, whether measured in yen or dollars, signals an increase in demand for safe-haven assets, often foreshadowing broader market adjustments [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund managers have issued warnings regarding the premium risk of their QDII funds, indicating that over 20 funds may be affected by secondary market trading price premiums, despite the majority showing strong performance this year [1][3]. Group 1: Premium Risk Warnings - On November 25, several fund management companies, including Huaxia, GF, and Huitianfu, announced premium risk warnings for their QDII funds, affecting more than 20 products [3]. - The funds involved track indices such as the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and MSCI US 50, with these indices showing significant gains of 18.38%, 18.07%, and 14% year-to-date, respectively [3]. - The warnings are not new; for instance, Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF has issued premium risk alerts up to 30 times since November [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Fund Management Actions - As of November 21, 92.16% of the 689 QDII funds reported positive returns this year, with some funds, like Huitianfu Hong Kong Advantage Mixed QDII, achieving returns exceeding 122% [6]. - In response to the premium risks, 165 QDII funds have suspended subscriptions or limited large subscriptions, with some funds imposing strict limits on subscription amounts [7][8]. - The tightening of QDII quotas has led to a supply-demand imbalance, contributing to the premium phenomenon as investors rush to buy into these funds [5][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The premium risk is exacerbated by a failure in the arbitrage mechanism due to the suspension of the primary market for subscriptions and redemptions, making it difficult to correct the premiums quickly [5]. - High-frequency trading and speculative activities have further amplified price volatility in the QDII funds, particularly those allowing T+0 trading [5]. - Analysts suggest that investors should wait for market adjustments before purchasing QDII funds to avoid chasing high prices, while also being mindful of the overall market conditions and potential risks [8].