Group 1 - The article predicts that the convertible bond market will continue to experience fluctuations in the next one to two weeks, laying a foundation for the year-end market trend [1] - The recent A-share market has undergone a significant adjustment, influenced by both internal and external factors, with convertible bonds showing relative resilience [1] - External factors include volatility in the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which has suppressed risk appetite in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the market is expected to enter a "spring rally" layout window in December, with institutional investors likely to shift from defensive sectors to those with high growth certainty for 2026 [2] - Key catalysts for market recovery may include the release of policy signals, particularly from the Central Economic Work Conference typically held in mid-December [2] - The article recommends a defensive investment strategy while also considering structural opportunities, with a focus on technology growth sectors, high-end manufacturing, and green energy [2]

Core Viewpoint - Despite recent market adjustments, insurance asset management institutions remain optimistic about future investment opportunities in the stock market, anticipating a potential early onset of the "spring rally" [1][2]. Market Conditions - Recent market adjustments are primarily reflections of external market fluctuations, including changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and concerns over the AI bubble in the US stock market [2]. - The fundamental market conditions have not changed significantly, with adjustments driven by shifts in funding, technology, sentiment, and expectations [2]. Investment Strategies - Insurance institutions are focusing on structural opportunities, particularly in dividend strategies within sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and transportation, while also identifying excess return opportunities in AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. - Despite market pullbacks in November, insurance institutions have actively engaged in research, with over 70 institutions participating in more than 280 research activities, focusing on technology and pharmaceuticals [2]. Asset Allocation Trends - To address the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment, insurance institutions are consistently increasing their allocation to high-quality equity assets, with stock investment balances reaching approximately 2,086 billion and 34,124 billion for property and life insurance companies, respectively, marking increases of about 30.29% and 50.47% year-over-year [3]. - The proportion of equity asset allocation by insurance institutions has reached a relatively high level of 10%, benefiting from both market growth and increased allocation willingness [3]. Regulatory and Market Drivers - The continuous increase in equity asset allocation by insurance institutions is driven by supportive policies and asset-liability matching requirements, with regulatory encouragement for private fund establishment and risk factor optimization opening up market opportunities [4]. - As traditional fixed-income assets fail to meet liability cost requirements, increasing equity asset allocation has become a crucial strategy for insurance institutions to enhance investment returns [4].

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.24 压力测试下转债具备韧性 [Table_Authors] 顾一格(分析师) 转债事件点评 债 券 本报告导读： 预计未来一到两周，转债市场预计将延续震荡格局，为年末行情夯实基础。建议利 用市场震荡进行布局，耐心等待"春季躁动"行情的展开。 投资要点： | | 021-38038201 | | --- | --- | | | guyige@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 REIT 打新策略数据跟踪 2025.10.29 买卖国债如何理解：从"长"计议 2025.10.28 把握反击窗口期 2025.10.26 不惧扰动，保持定力 2025.10.20 存款流向非银为何减速——9 月金融数据点评 2025.10.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 研 究 事 件 点 评 [Table_Summary] 过去一周（11 月 17 日-11 月 21 日），A 股市场经历了全线深度调 整，转债相对具备韧性。此次调整主要受内外因素交织影响。外部 而言，市 ...

2025 年 11 月 23 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 如何看待近期涨价领域拥挤度偏高的情况 最近一年走势 相关报告 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 《牛市中岁末还会出现风格切换吗*赵阳》—— 2025-11-08 《策略周报：《"十五五"规划建议》落地后市场 如何演绎？*赵阳》——2025-11-02 《策略研究框架的时代底色：极致的轮动与绝对的 低波*赵阳》——2025-10-25 《AH 溢价跌破位，港股在交易什么？——策略专 题报告*胡国鹏，袁野，袁稻雨》——2025-10-12 本篇报告主要讨论：1、近期热门涨价板块有哪些、拥挤度如何？2、历 史看，涨价板块拥挤度偏高会发生什么？后续能否创新高？3、回到当下， 哪些涨价行情有望延续？4、如何看待拥挤度已偏低的领域？ 核心要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1、2025 年 10 月以来涨价品种再获关注，热门领域主要集中在新能 源、AI 以及部分黑色、有色以及化工品种，多数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal, chemical, and energy sectors are showing strength against the market trend, with various ETFs in these sectors rising over 2% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coal ETFs, chemical ETFs, and petrochemical ETFs have all increased by more than 2%, while rare metals and energy ETFs have risen over 1.5% [1] - The strong performance in these sectors is attributed to a combination of seasonal demand and supply constraints due to weather and regulatory factors [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A "rapid freeze" weather pattern is expected to impact the northern and southern regions of China, leading to increased winter storage and replenishment needs [1] - Continuous abnormal autumn rains in major coal-producing areas and deepening production restrictions are expected to tighten supply further [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Pacific Securities anticipates that the strong performance of traditional sectors like coal will not be a short-lived phenomenon, predicting renewed market attention over the next quarter [1] - The report suggests that sectors such as coal, banking, photovoltaic, aquaculture, and nuclear power are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter [1] - The current high absorption rate in technology sectors indicates that chasing high returns may be challenging, reinforcing the potential for gains in undervalued sectors [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Zhongyin Securities believes that there is only a rotation of styles rather than a complete switch, indicating that the current market adjustments do not signal panic [2] - The anticipated "spring rally" in the A-share market may begin as early as December, contingent on sufficient prior adjustment space [2] - The report emphasizes that the current adjustments in the technology growth style are healthy and may create favorable conditions for future performance [2]

Market Performance - On October 21, A-shares saw collective gains across major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% to 3916.33 points, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 2.06% to 13077.32 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 3.02% to 3083.72 points [2][3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.8927 trillion yuan, an increase of 141.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4600 stocks rising [2] International Market Overview - In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 46924.74 points, while the S&P 500 saw a slight increase of 0.22% to 6735.35 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.16% to 22953.67 points [4][5] - European markets also experienced gains, with the FTSE 100 up by 0.25%, the CAC 40 rising by 0.64%, and the DAX increasing by 0.29% [4][5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.52% to $57.82 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.51% to $61.32 per barrel [4] - Conversely, international gold prices experienced a significant drop, with COMEX gold futures falling by 5.07% to $4138.50 per ounce, marking one of the largest single-day declines since April 2013 [4][5] Key Economic Developments - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held a video conference discussing key trade issues with the EU, emphasizing the importance of cooperation and the need to address trade frictions [6] - The Ukrainian President announced readiness to end the conflict with Russia, indicating a potential shift in geopolitical stability [7] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working on a "Computing Power Standard System Construction Guide" aiming to establish over 50 standards by 2027 to enhance the computing power industry [8] - Guangdong Province has introduced a plan to support the application of intelligent computing power in manufacturing, promoting the development of industrial software and smart equipment [9] Tourism Sector Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic tourism in China saw 4.998 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, with total spending reaching 4.85 trillion yuan, up 11.5% from the previous year [10] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyin International noted that the current market is experiencing style rotation rather than a complete style switch, suggesting a potential "spring rally" could begin as early as December [11] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that market behavior in the fourth quarter may become more conservative, with a focus on large-cap blue chips reflecting a shift in investor risk appetite [12] Company Announcements - China Telecom reported a net profit of 30.8 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 5% [13] - Other companies such as Wanchen Group and Xinjian Union reported significant profit increases, while Wen's shares saw a notable decline in net profit [14]

Market Overview - A-shares opened high and fluctuated, with the ChiNext Index fiercely contesting around the 3000-point mark, while over 4100 stocks declined, leading to a trading volume drop to 1.75 trillion yuan, the lowest in two and a half months [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3936.58, with a trading volume of 772.5 billion yuan, and a slight increase of 0.63% [2] Sector Performance - The electronic industry saw a net inflow of over 13.1 billion yuan, while power equipment attracted over 9.5 billion yuan. Other sectors like machinery, communication, and transportation also received significant inflows [3] - Conversely, the non-ferrous metals sector experienced a net outflow of over 1.6 billion yuan, along with other sectors like non-bank financials and food and beverage [3] Investment Sentiment - Current market sentiment is relatively high, making it sensitive to negative factors. The pace of domestic capital entering the market may slow down as year-end profit-taking occurs [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the technology growth style are healthy and may create favorable conditions for a potential "spring rally" starting as early as December [3] Hot Sectors - The cultivated diamond sector saw a significant surge, with the index rising over 6% to reach a historical high. Notable stocks like Huifeng Diamond and Sifangda hit their daily limit [4][6] - The marine economy sector also gained momentum, with a notable increase of over 3% in the index, driven by strong performances from stocks like Deshi Co. and Shenkai Machinery [6][8] Industry Developments - Recently, a company announced the successful cultivation of a 156.47-carat diamond, setting a new world record for the largest single crystal cultivated diamond [6] - The global cultivated diamond market is projected to grow from $25.89 billion in 2024 to $74.45 billion by 2032, indicating a significant increase in demand [6] Policy and Economic Outlook - The "2025 World Marine Equipment Conference" held in Fuzhou resulted in 172 projects being signed with a total investment exceeding 200 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential in the marine equipment sector [8] - Analysts expect the Chinese marine equipment industry to improve due to supportive policies, with leading companies likely to see sustained revenue growth [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is relatively high, making it sensitive to negative factors, and the speed of domestic capital inflow may slow down due to year-end profit-taking mentality [4][12][14] - The A-share market is expected to experience a "spring rally" starting as early as December, with the potential for a "bull market rally" also existing [4][30][36] - The report emphasizes that there is only style rotation in the market, not a style switch, and the current adjustments in the technology growth style are seen as healthy rather than a signal for a style change [4][29][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the consumer goods and certain cyclical sectors are currently showing favorable performance expectations and reasonable valuation levels, with industries such as personal care, cosmetics, medical services, and beverages being particularly noteworthy [4][36] - The dividend sector is expected to become a safe haven for funds amid weak market sentiment, with a focus on banks, coal, electricity, and transportation sectors [4][36][42] - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to clarify major policies, which may lead to increased market activity and focus on sectors aligned with the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4][47]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a "first stabilize, then rise" trend in the second half of the year, driven by internal economic recovery and supportive fiscal policies [1][4][3] - Major brokerages predict that the market will initially show volatility before moving upward, with key factors including global economic improvement and domestic policy implementation [3][4] - The market is anticipated to shift from small-cap stocks to core assets, indicating a trend towards more stable investments [1][10] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown resilience, with a potential bottom already established in early April, and is expected to maintain a steady rhythm before rising [4][3] - Analysts emphasize the importance of focusing on new consumption and technology sectors, particularly AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, as key investment themes for the second half of the year [8][9] - There is a growing consensus that the "transformation bull market" is becoming clearer, with a strategic outlook favoring long-term growth in emerging technologies and cyclical financial sectors [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the A-share market and various sectors within the Chinese economy, including pharmaceuticals, real estate, and technology. Core Points and Arguments 1. **April as a Critical Month for A-shares**: April is highlighted as a month where the A-share market focuses on fundamental performance, suggesting that investors should look for opportunities based on economic indicators and sector performance [12][18][14]. 2. **Market Trends and Economic Indicators**: The manufacturing PMI for March is reported at 50.5%, indicating a slight increase, which suggests ongoing economic recovery. However, there are concerns about the breadth of this recovery across different sectors [14][56]. 3. **Sector Performance Expectations**: - High growth is expected in sectors such as consumer services, midstream manufacturing, and specific industries like non-ferrous metals, automotive, electronics, and agriculture [13]. - Areas with price increases (e.g., industrial metals, certain chemicals) and improved sales (e.g., construction machinery, medical devices) are anticipated to perform well [13]. 4. **Impact of Policy on Economic Recovery**: The recovery is largely attributed to supportive government policies, including consumption incentives and fiscal measures. Investors are advised to be patient as the effects of these policies unfold [14][15]. 5. **Pharmaceutical Sector Growth**: The innovative pharmaceutical companies are accelerating their international expansion, with licensing deals becoming a mainstream model for rapid capital recovery and clinical trial advancement [26]. 6. **Real Estate Sector Recovery**: Signs of stabilization in real estate sales are noted, with property stocks expected to benefit from high cash flow and dividend yields, indicating a potential investment opportunity [26]. 7. **Investment Strategies for April**: Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors that show resilience and potential for improvement in earnings, particularly those benefiting from recent policy changes [14][15]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Global Economic Uncertainty**: The call mentions increasing global economic and political uncertainties, which could impact market sentiment and foreign investment flows into A-shares [12][19]. 2. **Increased New A-share Accounts**: There has been a significant increase in new A-share accounts, with March 2025 seeing 3.07 million new accounts, reflecting growing investor interest [58]. 3. **Potential Risks from U.S. Tariff Policies**: The U.S. has announced new tariffs, which could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries, adding to market uncertainties [54][59]. 4. **Long-term Gold Market Trends**: The discussion touches on the ongoing bull market for gold, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions, which may influence investment strategies [62][69]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential investment opportunities.