投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。受国内煤 炭期货价格小幅上涨带动，叠加宏观因子改善，偏弱产业因子被压制，本周一夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维持震荡窄幅整理的走势，期价略微收涨 0.00%至 2423 元/吨。预计本周二国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | ...

2025.08.25-08.29 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第33周油厂大豆实际压榨量233.9万吨，开机率为 65.75%；豆粕库存101.47万吨，较上周增加1.12万吨，增幅1.12%。国内 油厂维持高开机率，压榨量居高不下，虽生猪养殖持续亏损制约饲料消 费潜力，然而双节前备货需求带动下游补库情绪回暖。国际市场方面， 美豆高单产预期压制期价，但种植面积下调与中美贸易不确定性因素， 为豆粕价格提供了潜在支撑。综合来看，豆粕期货预计延续宽幅震荡态 势。 2 若四季度买船持续放缓，则豆粕期货重心或逐步上移。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏多。M2601 短期内或延续震荡偏强走势，预计运行区间：3000-3250。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏多。M2601短 期内或处于震荡走势，预计运行区 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。受国内煤 炭期货价格大幅上涨带动，叠加宏观 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空因素分歧，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 参考观点：偏弱运行 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。受国内煤 炭期货价格小幅下跌拖累，本周四夜 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on August 20, 2025, including that stock index futures will oscillate and consolidate, while some commodity futures like coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures will oscillate weakly, and industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will have a weakly wide - range oscillation [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate on August 20. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures主力 contracts T2509 and TL2509 are likely to oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold and silver futures主力 contracts AU2510 and AG2510 are likely to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, etc. futures主力 contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [3]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. futures主力 contracts are likely to have a weakly wide - range oscillation; coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures主力 contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [1][3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, etc. futures主力 contracts are likely to oscillate weakly [7]. 2. Macro Information and Trading Tips - **Domestic Information**: In July, China's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year; relevant meetings emphasized promoting consumer policies; the central bank increased re - loan quotas; unemployment rates of different age groups were announced; new regulations on personal pension were introduced; and the LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated [8][11]. - **International Information**: The US expanded steel and aluminum tariff lists, which is negative for related commodity futures; the US and Japan planned investment consultations; the US new home starts increased; the US credit rating was confirmed; and a Japanese politician called for interest rate hikes [9][10][11]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 19, the stock index futures主力 contracts generally had weak trends, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing. The A - share market was weak, but the two - margin balance continued to rise, and foreign institutions were optimistic about the Chinese stock market [13][14][15][16][17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 19, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures主力 contracts had small rebounds, and the central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations [37][41]. - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures主力 contracts had different trends on August 19, and their trends on August 20 were predicted based on technical and fundamental analysis [44][51][70][71][74][79][83][87][91][94][100][104][106][108][110][112][114][117].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation on the weaker side [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation on the weaker side, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.86% to 2409 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation - on - the - weaker - side trend on Monday [5]. Core Logic - The methanol market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. High supply pressure at home and abroad and off - season downstream demand lead to a weak supply - demand structure and a downward - moving price center [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-15 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在国内煤 炭期货价格震荡偏弱的趋势下，本周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and support/resistance levels of various futures on August 14, 2025, including index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2][3][4][5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 13, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results. Some commodities like rapeseed oil, soybean meal, etc. rose, while container shipping to Europe, industrial silicon, etc. declined. International markets showed that COMEX gold futures rose, international oil prices fell, and most LME base metals declined. The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB exchange rate had mixed performance [14][15][16][17]. 2. Macro - Information - **Financial Data**: In July 2025, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The net capital injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year [8]. - **"Double Discount" Policy**: The "double discount" policy for personal consumption loans and service business loans has a one - year term, and its extension will be studied later [9]. - **Equipment Update**: 188 billion yuan of investment subsidy funds for equipment updates supported by special long - term bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [10]. - **Social Security Fund**: As of August 12, the social security fund appeared in the top ten tradable shares of 41 A - shares, with a total market value of 12.622 billion yuan. It increased holdings in rural commercial banks, feed, and small household appliances, and reduced holdings in power, chemical raw materials, and medical devices [11]. - **Countermeasures against the EU**: China included two EU banks in the counter - list in response to the EU's sanctions on two Chinese financial institutions [12]. - **Fed Outlook**: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut and a series of rate cuts. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chair [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 13, major index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on August 14, index futures will show a strong - side oscillation. For the whole of August 2025, they are also expected to be strong - side oscillating or oscillating strongly [18][19][22][23]. Bond Futures - On August 13, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. On August 14, they are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [37][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 13, gold and silver futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. In August 2025, they are expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, they are expected to be strong - side oscillating [42][48]. Base Metal Futures - On August 13, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a slight upward trend, while alumina, industrial silicon, and others declined. In August 2025, they are expected to have various trends such as strong - side wide - range oscillation, wide - range oscillation, etc. On August 14, copper, aluminum, and alumina are expected to be weak - side oscillating, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [53][59][65][70][72]. Energy Futures - On August 13, the crude oil futures contract declined. In August 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating [100]. Agricultural Futures - On August 13, the rapeseed meal futures contract rose significantly. On August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Other agricultural futures such as PTA and PVC are expected to be weak - side oscillating on August 14 [7][105][108][110].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-14 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在国内煤 炭期货价格承压回落的背景下，本周三夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微 收低 0.72%至 2470 元/吨。预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of zinc show a mixed picture, with some factors being bullish and others neutral or bearish. The overall expectation for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to oscillate and strengthen [2]. - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and rise, with a shrinking volume and both long and short positions reducing, but the short - side reducing more. The short - term market may oscillate and consolidate, and technically, the price is above the moving average system, with the short - term indicator KDJ rising and running in the strong zone, while the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing and the short - side strength is increasing, with the short - side having a slight advantage [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is - 100 with a spot price of 22530, being neutral [2]. - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 274 tons to 15768 tons, being neutral [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating and rising trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, which is bullish [2]. - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Zinc Futures Market on August 12 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on August 12 varied by delivery month. For example, the 2509 contract had a trading volume of 79971 lots and a turnover of 901564490 yuan [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market on August 12 - The prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market on August 12 showed different trends. Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; zinc ingot was 22530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet was 4120 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe was 4512 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7729 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From July 31 to August 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 84400 tons to 99000 tons. Compared with August 4, it increased by 11800 tons, and compared with August 7, it increased by 7700 tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 12 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on August 12 were 15768 tons, an increase of 274 tons. Guangdong had 5482 tons with an increase of 225 tons, and Tianjin had 10286 tons with an increase of 49 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory on August 12 - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons [2][7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price on August 12 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic regions on August 12 was mostly 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, except in Hechi (16960 yuan/ton) and Longnan (17110 yuan/ton) [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on August 12 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters on August 12 all decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22290 yuan/ton (Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium) to 22920 yuan/ton (Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry) [12]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470300 tons [14]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on August 12 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions on August 12 ranged from 3400 to 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 12 - The total trading volume of zinc contracts among members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 12 was 126968 lots, a decrease of 8228 lots. The total long position was 57632 lots, a decrease of 3363 lots, and the total short position was 56690 lots, a decrease of 5486 lots [17].