行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

原油库存骤降驱动短期利多 供需弱化延阻续涨动能 一、库存情况观点 EIA报告显示，截止08月15日当周美国商业原油库存超预期减少601.4万 桶，降幅1.41%，创三个月最大单周降幅，库欣库存增加41.9万桶但未突破 五年均值区间。炼厂开工率意外升至96.6%高位（预期95.7%），印证炼厂 加速赶工以完成夏季检修前任务。成品油净出口增至5211千桶/日创新高， 出口放量叠加加工量提升推动库存持续去库，但馏分油库存逆季节性回升 至116百万桶（+2.06%）反映柴油需求疲软。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 1/10 二、周度数据跟踪 | | 2025-08- | 2025-08- | 2025-08- | 2025-07- | 変化 | 变化率 | 走势 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 15 | 08 | 01 | 25 | | | | | | WTI ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI's opening price was $62.58, closing at $62.00, with a high of $62.68, a low of $61.65, a decline of 1.12%, and a trading volume of 25.75 million lots. Brent opened at $65.98, closed at $65.42, reached a high of $66.01, a low of $65.14, dropped by 0.89%, and had a trading volume of 20.06 million lots. SC's opening price was 482.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 482.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 484.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 479 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.47%, and a trading volume of 11.46 million lots [6]. - **Market Trend**: The US is arranging a summit among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and overnight oil prices continued to fall. Although the meeting between the US and Russian leaders did not yield substantial results, Trump said the talks were "very smooth," and the US will not impose further sanctions on Russia for now. The relationship between the two countries has improved, and oil prices continued their weak performance [6]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week ending on the 8th, US gasoline consumption rebounded. After five consecutive weeks of consumption below the same period in 2024, the growth rate barely turned positive. Consumption was still weak despite lower gasoline prices, and this year's peak - season travel consumption in the US was lower than expected. The actual performance of refined - oil consumption was not optimistic. With the peak travel season coming to an end, demand support was limited [7]. - **Overall Outlook**: This year's peak - season consumption in the US showed no significant improvement, and oil prices were mainly bearish. In the short term, oil prices were bottoming out, and in the medium term, they might decline again under inventory pressure [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Angola plans to cut its oil exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary plans to raise tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [8]. - In July, India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased. Partly because Reliance Industries, the world's largest refinery operator, reduced its purchases by 19% from the previous month's high. Between August and September, Indian state - owned refineries will seek alternative oil sources from the Middle East or the US to replace Russian oil. However, sources said that due to the increased discount of Russian oil, Indian state - owned refineries have placed orders for Russian oil. The Russian embassy in India said the discount for Russian oil to India is about 5%, and Russian oil is highly competitive with no current substitutes. India's oil imports will remain at a similar level [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Brent, and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources including Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]

美俄会谈后制裁预期松动，潜在供应压力增大 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 8月18日，SC原油主力合约小幅回落至486.5元/桶（较15日跌0.33%），WTI 与Brent价格持平于62.29、66.13美元/桶。SC-Brent价差收窄0.19美元至 1.64美元/桶（跌幅10.38%），SC-WTI价差同步收窄0.19美元至5.48美元/ 桶（跌幅3.35%），反映出国内SC价格相对外盘的贴水压力增强，可能受交 割预期或国内需求偏弱影响。SC跨期价差（连续-连3）降至2.2元/桶（跌 幅18.52%），近月合约流动性压力显现。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 印度石油公司持续采购俄罗斯原油（占比升至24%），且俄油折扣收窄至 1.5美元/桶，显示俄油出口韧性仍存，制裁松动预期下供应端压力增加。 此外，周末美俄会晤后东欧局势谈判前景向好，市场对俄制裁进一步强化 的预期降温，俄油流入亚洲的渠道或进一步稳定。 需求端： 美国夏季出行旺季支撑汽油需求，但油市过剩前景压制市场情绪。印度炼 厂维持对俄油的高加工率，表明局部需求稳定，但全球制造业疲软及经济 增速放缓或限制需求增长弹性 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 15 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 12 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | WTI | 主力 | 63.85 | 63.35 | 64.58 | 62.77 | -0.83 | 29.30 | | Brent | 主力 | 66.42 | 66.32 | 67.22 | 65.53 | -0.17 | 37.53 | | SC | 主力（元/桶） | 494.5 | 489.4 | 497.5 | 488.1 | -1.41 | 13.57 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 在美俄可能展开领导人对话以及原油需求仍没有明显起色的双重冲击下，本 周国际油价持续回落。展望后市，美俄领导人即将展开直接会谈，美方希望通过 制裁压力使得俄乌尽早实现停火。俄罗斯原油拥有较为完备的出口途径，制裁最 终影响仍然偏短期。基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX supply has recovered, with its inventory at a historical low and strong bottom support. Whether its profitability can continue to improve depends on unexpected factors. Currently, it is in an advantageous position in the industry chain, and social inventory is decreasing. However, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - PTA is expected to move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. Although there are device maintenance expectations, new device production expectations on the supply side and lackluster demand during the off - season limit price increases. The market had a short - term upward trend but has since fallen back, and supply remains sufficient [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere. Supply - side quotes vary, and downstream buying enthusiasm has declined. The supply - side operating rate remains low, some specifications are in short supply, and downstream terminals are mainly consuming previous inventories [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner. Without more unexpected positive news, the TA2509, PX2509, and PR2509 contracts closed at 4706 yuan/ton (0.38%), 6778 yuan/ton (0.44%), and 5934 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively, with trading volumes of 44.47 million hands, 7.41 million hands, and 1.97 million hands [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, 2025, the futures settlement prices (continuous) of WTI and Brent crude oil were $63.96/barrel and $66.63/barrel respectively, up 0.13% and 0.06% from the previous values [1]. - **Upstream Products**: The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $568/ton, down 0.44%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $690/ton, up 0.07%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $835/ton, up 0.40% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE TA main contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4708 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.47% and 0.43%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 4706 yuan/ton and 4690 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.38% and 0.30%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4671 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The CCFEI price index of domestic and foreign PTA was 4695 yuan/ton (up 0.54%) and $622/ton (down 0.96%) respectively [1]. - **PX**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PX main contract were 6778 yuan/ton and 6770 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.77% and 0.33%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6705 yuan/ton [1]. - **PR**: The closing price and settlement price of the CZCE PR main contract were 5934 yuan/ton and 5938 yuan/ton respectively, up 0.61% and 0.47%; the closing price and settlement price of the near - month contract were 5922 yuan/ton, up 0.44%. The mainstream market prices of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China were 5910 yuan/ton (unchanged) and 5950 yuan/ton (up 0.17%) respectively [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price indices of polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged at 6480 yuan/ton, 5870 yuan/ton, and 5910 yuan/ton respectively. The CCFEI price indices of polyester DTY, POY, FDY68D, and FDY150D were 8600 yuan/ton (up 0.58%), 7125 yuan/ton (up 0.35%), 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%), and 7050 yuan/ton (up 1.44%) respectively [2]. 2. Spread Changes - **PXN Spread**: On August 11, 2025, it was $267/ton, up 2.23% [1]. - **PX - MX Spread**: It was $145/ton, up 1.99% [1]. - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: It was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PTA**: It was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of PX**: It was - 73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis of Polyester Bottle - chips in East and South China**: They were - 24 yuan/ton and 16 yuan/ton respectively, decreasing by 36 yuan/ton and 26 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Operating Conditions - **PX Operating Rate**: It remained unchanged at 78.11% [1]. - **PTA Factory Load Rate**: It increased by 2.06 percentage points to 76.56% [1]. - **Polyester Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 87.09% [1]. - **Bottle - chip Factory Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 71.93% [1]. - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Load Rate**: It remained unchanged at 57.83% [1]. 4. Production and Sales Rates - **Polyester Filament Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 2 percentage points to 43% [1]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber Production and Sales Rate**: It decreased by 6 percentage points to 51% [1]. - **Polyester Chip Production and Sales Rate**: It increased by 8 percentage points to 97% [1]. 5. Device Information - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was shut down for maintenance on June 28 and restarted on August 10 [2]. 6. Important News - The supply - demand situation of international crude oil is weak, with high crude oil production in Brazil and Iran. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will affect oil prices. With the expected progress, geopolitical risks have declined, putting pressure on oil prices. Multiple reforming devices have been put into operation recently, and some PX devices have restarted one after another, leading to a recovery in PX supply [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - position allocation for oil prices, with oil prices expected to trade in a range [3] Core Viewpoints - India responded strongly to Trump's threat of sanctions on countries buying Russian energy, indicating it would defend its national interests and suggesting its policy of purchasing Russian oil won't change [2] - Oil prices have continued to decline due to concerns about demand and increased OPEC+ supply, but the potential disruption of Russian oil exports limits the decline. The future of oil prices largely depends on Trump's decision on sanctions against Russia [1][5] Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.13 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.70% decline; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell $1.12 to $67.64 per barrel, a 1.63% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.30% at 503 yuan per barrel [1] - The price of AI - 95 gasoline on the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange hit a record high, exceeding 77,000 rubles ($964.6) per ton. The market attributes the price increase to the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries on August 2nd, which damaged crude oil processing facilities with a total capacity of about 40,000 tons per day, and repairs are expected to take 1 to 6 months [1] - BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said that the growth of non - OPEC oil supply will peak in early 2026, while demand remains strong. He expects non - OPEC supply to be basically flat 12 to 18 months after February or March next year. Oil market demand is still "quite strong" and is expected to grow this year and next year, with petrochemical products leading consumption next year. Developments related to sanctions on Russia and Iran are the main drivers of oil price increases [1] - US President Trump will decide whether to impose sanctions on countries buying Russian energy after a meeting on Wednesday. When asked about imposing a 100% oil tariff on Russia, he said it was quite possible [1] Investment Logic - India responded strongly to Trump's threats of tariffs on Russian oil imports, stating it would defend national interests and accusing Western countries of hypocrisy. The market believes India's policy of purchasing Russian oil will not change as it can't find alternative sources, and even if there are alternatives, the volume is expected to be very small [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to trade in a range, with a mid - term short - position allocation [3]

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 6 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员： ...