北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）10月10日，人民银行官网发布2025年9月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。 其中，9月短期逆回购净投放3902亿元，买断式逆回购净投放3000亿元，公开市场国债买卖净投放0元， 中期借贷便利（MLF）净投放3000亿元，抵押补充贷款（PSL）净回笼883亿元。 ...

人民财讯10月10日电，央行发布9月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。其中，短期逆回购净投放3902亿元，买断式逆回购净投放3000亿元，公开市场国债 买卖净投放0元，中期借贷便利(MLF)净投放3000亿元，抵押补充贷款(PSL)净回笼883亿元。 | 工具类型 | 工具名称 | ﻴﺔ | | --- | --- | --- | | 准备金 | 调整法定存款准备金率 | | | 中央银行贷款 | 常备借贷便利(SLF) | | | | 中期借贷便利(MLF) | ଚା | | | 抵押补充贷款 (PSL) | | | | 其他结构性货币政策工具 | 5 | | 公开市场业务 | 短期逆回购 | 73 | | | 买断式逆回购 | 1 € | | | 公开市场国债买卖 | | | | 中央国库现金管理 | 1 | ...

同时，央行还持续开展7天期逆回购操作。以逆回购口径统计，9月22日至9月30日，央行累计开展 逆回购操作31799亿元，逆回购到期23434亿元，实现净投放8365亿元。 9月下旬以来，临近季度末，又恰逢国庆中秋双节假期，央行的流动性投放力度明显加码。9月22 日，央行重启14天期逆回购操作，当日投放规模3000亿元。9月26日，14天期逆回购操作规模扩大至 6000亿元。 9月30日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2422亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.4%。今日公开市场有2761亿元7天期逆回购到期，实现净回笼339亿元。 前一日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2886亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率同 样为1.4%。因为当天有2405亿元7天期逆回购到期，实现净投放481亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has resumed 14-day reverse repurchase operations after eight months, injecting 300 billion yuan into the market on September 22, alongside 240.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, resulting in a net injection of 260.5 billion yuan for the day [1][2] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repo auction method to fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding aims to better meet the differentiated funding needs of various institutions and maintain liquidity in the banking system [2][3] - The current monetary policy transmission mechanism will use the 7-day reverse repo rate as a starting point, linking deposit rates to the 10-year government bond yield and the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] Group 2 - As the end of the quarter approaches, the central bank faces a liquidity test with over 2 trillion yuan in open market maturities, but fiscal deposits are expected to provide some liquidity support [4][5] - The central bank's approach to liquidity remains protective, with expectations of continued reasonable-scale open market operations to maintain stability in cross-quarter and holiday funding [4][5] - Recent increases in yields on bank interbank certificates of deposit and 10-year government bonds suggest limited upward space for medium to long-term market rates, as the central bank aims to maintain ample market liquidity [5]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has increased liquidity injections into the market to stabilize the financial environment and support economic recovery [1] Group 1: Market Operations - This week, the central bank conducted a total of 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos, 1,500 million yuan in treasury cash deposits, and 6,000 million yuan in buyout reverse repos, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 11,923 million yuan [1] - Next week, there will be 18,268 million yuan in reverse repos maturing, with specific maturities of 2,800 million yuan, 2,870 million yuan, 4,185 million yuan, 4,870 million yuan, and 3,543 million yuan from Monday to Friday [1] - Additionally, 3,000 million yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature on Thursday, September 25 [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Industry insiders suggest that the central bank's recent actions to increase liquidity will help maintain a stable financial environment and reinforce the foundation for economic recovery [1] - The central bank is expected to continue using various monetary policy tools to inject liquidity into the market, with a possibility of increasing MLF operations this month and the potential resumption of government bond trading [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) has shown strong performance with a slight increase in value and high tracking accuracy, indicating a favorable investment environment in the credit bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of September 16, 2025, the credit bond ETF fund has accumulated a 0.13% increase in value for the month, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The fund's net value has risen by 1.46% over the past six months, placing it in the top 4.76% among 483 index bond funds [1]. - The fund has experienced a maximum of five consecutive months of gains since inception, with a maximum gain of 1.62% and a monthly profit percentage of 71.43% [1]. Group 2: Liquidity and Market Conditions - The People's Bank of China has increased liquidity measures, conducting two reverse repurchase operations in September, with a total of 600 billion yuan in operations on September 15 [1]. - The central bank's actions are in response to the maturity of 300 billion yuan in six-month reverse repos, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining market liquidity [1]. Group 3: Fund Composition - The credit bond ETF fund consists of 303 underlying bonds, all of which are AAA-rated and primarily issued by high-quality central state-owned enterprises [2]. - The fund covers a wide range of bond maturities from 0 to 30 years, effectively representing the entire yield curve with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds [2].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is actively managing liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system and support economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On September 16, the central bank conducted a reverse repo operation of 287 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 40 billion yuan after 247 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured [1]. - In September, the central bank has already conducted two reverse repo operations, with a total of 6 billion yuan in 6-month reverse repos being rolled over, indicating a continuous increase in liquidity for the fourth consecutive month [1][2]. - The central bank's operations are influenced by tax periods, with a significant reverse repo of 6 billion yuan initiated on the first day of the tax period [2]. Group 2: Future Expectations - There is a possibility of further increases in liquidity measures, as 3 billion yuan in MLF is set to mature in September, and experts do not rule out the continuation of increased operations [2]. - The central bank is expected to utilize a combination of reverse repos and MLF to manage short- to medium-term liquidity effectively, while also considering long-term tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond transactions [2]. - The monetary policy report for Q2 2025 emphasizes the need to align liquidity levels with economic growth and inflation expectations, indicating a proactive approach to maintaining a conducive financial environment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The timing for the central bank to restart treasury bond trading opportunistically may be gradually maturing. If restarted, it may take forms such as "buying short and selling long" (though "selling long" may not be necessary currently), directly "buying short", or moderately lengthening the duration of purchased treasury bonds. The impact on the market is expected to be relatively neutral [7][8][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Treasury Bond Trading Expected to Restart Opportunistically - From January to August 2025, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading operations for eight consecutive months. Currently, considering the treasury bond yield situation and the subsequent government bond issuance plan, the timing for restarting treasury bond trading may be gradually maturing. The current 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield has reached 1.80%, which opens up space for the restart. From the perspective of central bank - fiscal coordination, restarting treasury bond trading can enhance bond market liquidity and reduce fiscal financing costs [7][16][17]. 3.2 Possible Forms of Restarting Treasury Bond Trading 3.2.1 The Initial Operation Form of Treasury Bond Trading in 2024: "Buying Short and Selling Long" - In August 2024, the central bank announced treasury bond trading in the open market, specifically "buying short - term treasury bonds from some primary dealers in the open market and selling long - term treasury bonds". The central bank borrowed long - term bonds from some institutions for selling. However, currently, "selling long" may not be necessary as the policy - end demand for regulating treasury bond yields is not strong, and "selling long" may have a greater impact on short - term treasury bond yields [18][19][23]. 3.2.2 Similar to the Latter - Half Operation Form of Treasury Bond Trading in 2024: Directly "Buying Short" - In the latter half of 2024, the central bank may have directly "bought short". There were many treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year. If the central bank directly "buys short" this year, the large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks since early June can smooth the impact on the secondary market [24][27][29]. 3.2.3 The Central Bank May Moderately Lengthen the Duration of Purchased Treasury Bonds - From the perspective of stabilizing the central bank's treasury bond holding scale and improving the term arrangement of liquidity injection, the central bank may moderately lengthen the duration of purchased treasury bonds. The maturity of purchased treasury bonds does not lead to the central bank's liquidity withdrawal [34][35]. 3.3 The Impact of Restarting Treasury Bond Trading on the Market May Be Relatively Neutral - The central bank is expected to balance the liquidity injection of multiple tools. The current adjustment of the bond market is not mainly due to monetary policy. If short - term treasury bonds are purchased, the large - scale net purchase of short - term treasury bonds by large banks can buffer the impact. Primary dealers may play a role in stabilizing market fluctuations [10][37][41].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and its relationship with the stock market, highlighting the current weak sentiment in the bond market and the factors influencing it [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Correlation Between Stock and Bond Markets**: The correlation is not constant; when the stock market adjusts, the bond market does not necessarily follow. This indicates that additional capital is needed to support bond yields, rather than relying solely on trading expectations [2][4]. - **Current Yield Range**: The trading range for yields is currently between 1.70% and 1.80%, with a central tendency around 1.75%. This range is influenced by market sentiment and trading strategies [2][4]. - **Policy Expectations**: There are no significant changes in the fundamental outlook, making policy expectations a focal point for traders. Potential new policies, such as anti-involution measures and relaxed real estate policies, could influence market sentiment [2][4]. - **Impact of Shenzhen's Policy Changes**: The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shenzhen is seen as a symbolic move that may prompt other cities to follow suit. However, the overall impact on the market is expected to be limited and more emotional than structural [5]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Liquidity Concerns**: The banking sector faces significant liquidity pressures due to a large volume of maturing certificates of deposit (CDs) and the need for open market operations to manage these pressures. The central bank's potential actions, such as interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, are critical to monitor [3][6][7]. - **Central Bank's Bond Purchase Strategy**: While not deemed absolutely necessary, the central bank's resumption of bond purchases could alleviate issuance pressures and signal a more positive outlook. The focus will be on whether the central bank will buy bonds of varying maturities [8][9]. - **Mixed Investment Products**: The relationship between stock and bond markets is complex, with mixed investment products affecting capital flows. When stocks perform poorly, these products may face redemption pressures, impacting the bond market negatively [10]. - **Key Monitoring Points**: Important factors to watch include the liquidity pressures faced by large banks, the progress of government bond transactions, and the redemption trends of mixed investment products, all of which will influence asset allocation strategies [11].

Group 1 - The central bank announced liquidity injection and withdrawal measures for August, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - In August, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 53.4 billion yuan through short-term reverse repos [1] - The central bank also executed a net injection of 300 billion yuan via buyout reverse repos, while no public market transactions of government bonds were conducted during the month [1] Group 2 - Various monetary policy tools were utilized, including adjustments to the required reserve ratio, standing lending facility (SLF), MLF, and pledged supplementary lending (PSL) [2] - The central bank's open market operations included short-term reverse repos, buyout reverse repos, and cash management for the central treasury [2]