国债期货日报 2025/11/25 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策态度 盘面点评： 周二期债主力合约除TS外全线收跌，日线上T、TF、TS维持震荡态势，TL延续跌势。资金面宽松，DR001在 1.32%附近。公开市场逆回购3021亿，续作MLF 10000亿，净回笼54亿。 重要资讯： 1.国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，强调台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分。特朗普表示， 中国当年为二战胜利发挥了重要作用，美方理解台湾问题对于中国的重要性。 2.国新办将于周四上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹风会，请工业和信息化部副部长谢远生和国家发展改革 委、商务部、文化和旅游部、市场监管总局有关负责人介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施 有关情况。 行情研判： 今日A股大幅反弹，债市受到一定影响。公开市场开展1万亿MLF，超额续作1000亿，中长期流动性投放较为 稳定，政策信号有限。短期市场缺乏驱动因素，交易情绪疲弱，TL已回补下方缺口，不排除T亦有回补缺口的 可能，多单可逢低布局。中期维持乐观，中期多单继续持有。 | | 2 ...

"近期宏观经济出现下行波动，央行加量续作MLF，持续较大规模向银行体系注入中期流动性，也释放 出货币政策工具持续加力的信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有助于稳增长、稳预期。"王青表 示。 近6个月，中期流动性持续处于净投放状态，11月净投放规模继续处于高位。王青进一步分析：11月， 政府债券净融资规模预计将明显上升；5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，会带动配套中长期贷款 较快投放；银行同业存单到期量明显增加。"这些因素都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，因此需 要央行给予流动性支持。" 今年以来，央行加大流动性投放力度，维护跨季资金面平稳。目前，已基本形成每月5日前后开展3个月 买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月买断式逆回购、25日开展1年期MLF的中长期资金投放模式。第三 季度，买断式逆回购和MLF操作合计净投放1.5万亿元，既为保持市场流动性充裕奠定基础，也为金融 机构流动性管理提供便利。 ◎记者 张琼斯 中国人民银行11月24日发布的11月中期借贷便利（MLF）招标公告显示，11月25日将以固定数量、利率 招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期，以保持银行体系流动性充裕 ...

《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》显示，第三季度，买断式逆回购和MLF操作合计净投放1.5 万亿元，为保持市场流动性充裕提供有力支持。 11月24日，央行宣布，将于11月25日开展10000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作。由于11月有9000亿元 MLF到期，这意味着11月央行MLF净投放规模为1000亿元。 考虑到11月央行还开展了5000亿元买断式逆回购净投放，这意味着11月中期流动性净投放总额达到6000 亿元，与上月相同，连续4个月处于6000亿元的年内较高水平。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青分析，11月持续加大流动性投放主要应对三大需求：一是10月安排5000亿 元地方政府债务结存限额，用于化解存量债务及扩大有效投资，这意味着年底前会加发5000亿元地方 债，11月政府债券净融资规模会有明显上升；二是10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，在带动 当月委托贷款走高后，接下来还会带动配套中长期贷款较快投放；三是11月银行同业存单到期量也有明 显增加。以上都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，需要央行给予流动性支持。 作为全年工作收官的关键时段，11月、12月面临政府债券发行、信贷投放收尾等多 ...

近6个月，中期流动性持续处于净投放状态，11月净投放规模继续处于高位。王青进一步分析，11 月，政府债券净融资规模预计将明显上升；5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，会带动配套中长期 贷款较快投放；银行同业存单到期量明显增加。"这些因素都会在一定程度上收紧银行体系流动性，因 此需要央行给予流动性支持。" 今年以来，央行加大流动性投放力度，维护跨季资金面平稳。目前，已基本形成每月5日前后开展3 个月买断式逆回购、15日前后开展6个月买断式逆回购、25日开展1年期MLF的中长期资金投放模式。 第三季度，买断式逆回购和MLF操作合计净投放1.5万亿元，既为保持市场流动性充裕奠定基础，也为 金融机构流动性管理提供便利。 王青表示，央行通过MLF和买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，有助于保持资金面处于较 为稳定的充裕状态。"这也能助力政府债券发行，引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度。" SHMET 网讯： 央行11月24日发布的11月中期借贷便利（MLF）招标公告显示，11月25日将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期，以保持银行体系流动性充裕。 业内专家表示，这是央 ...

Group 1 - The current USD/HKD spot exchange rates are 7.85 for the offer rate and 7.75 for the bid rate [1] - Today's overnight HIBOR is provided, indicating the liquidity conditions in the Hong Kong interbank market [1] - The HKAB 1-Month HIBOR fixing is also mentioned, reflecting the short-term borrowing costs in the market [1] Group 2 - The opening aggregate balance and closing aggregate balance are referenced, which are crucial for understanding the liquidity position of the banking system [1] - Changes in the aggregate balance are attributed to market activities, interest payments, and discount window reversals, highlighting the factors influencing liquidity [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. Short - term bonds have high allocation and trading value, and there is a possibility of an unexpected decline in inter - bank certificate of deposit rates at the end of the year. Long - term bonds have some room for repair due to the expansion of the term spread. Although there are many bullish factors in the bond market in the fourth quarter, redemption pressure persists, and trading should be based on an interval - oscillation strategy. With the increasing expectation of monetary easing, a more optimistic view of the subsequent bond - market situation can be taken [3][10]. - The restart of the central bank's bond purchases in October had a net purchase amount of only 20 billion yuan, lower than market expectations. The restart should be understood more as a signal, and high expectations for the purchase volume should not be held [3][10]. - The key impact on the market lies in whether the central bank will adjust the bond - purchase term to hedge against the potentially concentrated issuance of long - term and ultra - long - term local bonds in November, which may bring significant pressure to the allocation portfolio [4][19]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. How to View the Central Bank's Bond - Purchase Scale - **Viewpoint Review**: The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile way. Short - term bonds have high value, and long - term bonds have repair space. Bullish factors are numerous, but redemption pressure exists. With rising easing expectations, the subsequent bond - market situation can be viewed more optimistically [3][10]. - **Analysis of the Central Bank's Bond - Purchase Scale**: - **From the perspective of liquidity**: The central bank's bond - purchase space comes from the switch between tools. Since the beginning of this year, repurchase and MLF have been the main channels for the central bank to inject medium - and long - term liquidity. The medium - and long - term liquidity injection has been sufficient, especially after the second quarter, so there is no need to rely on the central bank's bond - purchase channel. At the end of the year, the central bank can increase bond purchases to make up for the concentrated maturity of MLF, but the operation space may be within one trillion yuan if mainly relying on bond purchases [10][11][13]. - **From the perspective of the central bank's bond maturity**: The cumulative scale of the central bank's bond purchases in this round should be limited to around one trillion yuan. The restart of bond purchases is a form of "roll - over," and the continuous purchase scale after the restart needs to reach around one trillion yuan to match the maturity volume. Otherwise, it may be a de - facto non - roll - over [15]. - **From the perspective of monthly purchase scale**: To have a relatively neutral impact on the market, the single - period injection scale may be small. If calculated based on a net weekly purchase of 20 billion yuan, the monthly net purchase scale can reach around 100 billion yuan. Concentrated incremental purchases may cause an abnormal decline in short - term Treasury bond yields, which is not what the central bank wants to see [16].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank announced a 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 5, with a term of three months, indicating a continued "stable and slightly loose" monetary policy approach [1] Group 1: Central Bank Operations - On November 5, the central bank will conduct a fixed-quantity, interest-rate tendering, multi-price bidding reverse repurchase operation amounting to 700 billion yuan, with a duration of 91 days [1] - In October, the central bank's net injection through open market treasury bond transactions was 20 billion yuan, which helps to support liquidity and stabilize bond market expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Analysis - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, stated that the net injection of 20 billion yuan in October is beneficial for maintaining liquidity and stabilizing market expectations [1] - It is anticipated that the central bank may increase the scale of treasury bond purchases in November, depending on market conditions, to alleviate liquidity pressure [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected 700 billion yuan of liquidity through a reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The operation is a continuation of the 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase that will mature on November 7, indicating a stable liquidity environment [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to conduct another 6-month reverse repurchase operation this month, with a possibility of increasing the amount [1] Group 2 - In October, the PBOC net injected 20 billion yuan of liquidity through open market operations, reflecting a cautious approach to managing market liquidity [2] - The PBOC's resumption of government bond trading is aimed at stabilizing market expectations without causing a rapid decline in interest rates [2] - Future expectations include potential increases in the scale of net bond purchases to counteract the pressure from maturing monetary tools [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy signal significance of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is significantly greater than the actual operation scale. The small - scale purchase in October 2025 is a specific implementation of the policy declaration, aiming to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, and guide the market to form stable expectations [4][8]. - The central bank may moderately increase the scale of treasury bond purchases in November 2025. It is expected that the net purchase scale in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 2000 - 4000 billion yuan, mainly focusing on short - term treasury bonds [4][9]. - In 2026, the scale of treasury bond trading operations may significantly expand following the rhythm of fiscal stimulus. If the front - loaded fiscal stimulus in 2025 continues, large - scale operations may be carried out in the first quarter of 2026 [4][12]. - Treasury bond trading operations are expected to become a new channel for medium - and long - term liquidity injection, which can optimize the bank's asset structure, replace MLF and repo, and relieve the pressure on traditional liquidity injection tools [4][18][19]. - The bond market is expected to be in a volatile and bullish situation in November. Investors should focus on the asset allocation window of traditional institutions at the end of the year and prioritize investing in medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds [32]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 Signal Significance Far重于Operation Scale - In October 2025, the central bank restarted treasury bond purchases with a scale of 20 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the average level in the same period of 2024. The market had an expected gap, and the policy signal is more important than the liquidity injection effect [4][8]. - The small - scale purchase operation indicates that the central bank does not intend to drive interest rates down too quickly and avoid excessive market expectations. The pressure of treasury bond issuance in November 2025 has marginally eased, and the urgency of large - scale purchases is not high [4][8]. - It is expected that the central bank will continue treasury bond trading operations in November, and the net purchase scale in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to reach 2000 - 4000 billion yuan, mainly buying short - term treasury bonds [4][9]. 1.2 Restart of Treasury Bond Trading Operations: Considerations Based on Environmental Improvement and Policy Coordination - The restart of treasury bond trading operations is based on the improvement of internal and external environments and policy coordination. The previous suspension was a temporary and prudent measure, and the restart is reasonable and necessary [13]. - Internally, the supply - demand of the bond market is balanced, and the systemic risks have been released. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to a reasonable range of 1.75% - 1.80%, creating favorable conditions for the restart [13]. - Externally, the exchange - rate pressure has significantly eased. The offshore RMB exchange rate has stabilized at around 7.10, which broadens the space for monetary policy operations [14]. - From the perspective of policy coordination, the restart of operations is a cooperation with the Ministry of Finance's bond - issuing work, which is an important manifestation of the coordinated efforts of fiscal and financial policies [16]. 1.3 Treasury Bond Trading Operations are Expected to Become a New Channel for Medium - and Long - Term Liquidity Injection - In the structural liquidity shortage framework, the bank system has a natural gap in medium - and long - term liquidity. Traditional liquidity injection tools face constraints such as limited reserve - requirement ratio reduction space and large - scale rolling renewals [18]. - Treasury bond trading operations can convert commercial banks' bond assets into excess reserves, optimize the asset structure, and replace MLF and repo to a certain extent, which is similar to the effect of "reserve - requirement ratio reduction" [19]. 2.1 Impact of Treasury Bond Trading Operations on the Central Bank's Balance Sheet - Bond borrowing is an off - balance - sheet business, and its scale is not directly reflected in the central bank's balance sheet [23]. - Bond borrowing and selling lead to a structural adjustment of the liability side. When the central bank borrows and sells bonds, the excess deposit reserves on the liability side decrease, and the trading - related financial liabilities increase [23]. - Buying treasury bonds on the balance sheet has a clear expansion effect on the central bank's balance sheet, increasing both the "claims on the government" on the asset side and the "deposits of other depository corporations" on the liability side [25]. - Holding treasury bonds to maturity leads to a contraction of the balance sheet, as the "claims on the government" and "government deposits" decrease [26]. 2.2 Review of Treasury Bond Trading Operations - In August 2024, the central bank started treasury bond trading operations, implementing a "buy - short, sell - long" strategy, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan [27]. - From September to December 2024, the strategy changed to mainly "buying short", with a cumulative net purchase of about 900 billion yuan [27]. - In January 2025, the central bank suspended treasury bond trading operations, and the "claims on the government" on the balance sheet gradually decreased as the short - term treasury bonds matured [27]. 3. Bond Market Strategy: Prioritize Investing in Medium - and Long - Term Interest - Rate Bonds - The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish in November. The restart of treasury bond trading in October sent a positive signal, but it may not drive yields down trend - wise. Investors should focus on the asset allocation window of traditional institutions [32]. - Investors should prioritize investing in medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds. The 30Y - 10Y spread is at a near - three - year high, and there is a high probability of narrowing. Configuration - oriented institutions may increase their allocation of medium - and long - term bonds [32].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed public market treasury bond transactions for the first time since January 2025, indicating a supportive stance towards liquidity and stabilizing market expectations [3][4]. Group 1: Market Operations - In October, the PBOC conducted short-term reverse repos amounting to 47,453 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 5,953 billion yuan after a total of 53,406 billion yuan was recalled [1]. - The PBOC executed a buyout reverse repo of 17,000 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 4,000 billion yuan after recalling 13,000 billion yuan [1]. - The announcement on November 4 indicated a net injection of 20 billion yuan from treasury bond transactions, marking the first operation since the suspension in January 2025 [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Conditions - As of November 4, short-term treasury yields have risen, with the 1-year yield at 1.3350% (up 1.5 basis points) and the 10-year yield at 1.7905% (up 0.1 basis points) [3]. - The current 10-year treasury yield has reached around 1.8%, indicating favorable conditions for resuming treasury bond transactions [3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The PBOC plans to conduct a 7,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo on November 5, with a term of 3 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [4]. - There is an expectation of an additional 6-month buyout reverse repo operation in November, indicating a continued injection of medium-term liquidity [4]. - The PBOC is likely to utilize both buyout reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to inject liquidity into the market, while maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance [5][6].