1月7日，中国人民银行发布公告称，8日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1.1万亿元买 断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。鉴于月内有同等规模的到期量，本次操作后将实现3个月期买 断式逆回购等量续作。 1月，累计有1.7万亿元的买断式逆回购到期量，考虑到月内还有一次6个月期品种操作，且两个期限品 种的买断式逆回购已连续7个月净投放，市场机构仍看好后续6个月期买断式逆回购将加量续作。 "3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作，或与金融机构资金需求的期限结构等有关，不代表央行降低流动性投 放力度。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对证券时报记者表示，为配合政府债券发行，应对潜在流动性 收紧态势，央行大概率会通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，引导资金面企稳。 日前，财政部已完成首批2026年记账式贴现国债招标发行工作，地方也已开始发行2026年地方政府专项 债券、置换债券，政府债券在年初迎来密集发行。鉴于新的一年我国将保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规 模和支出总量，全国财政工作会议明确将扩大财政支出盘子。专家学者一致认为，2026年政府债券规模 将进一步提高。为配合更大规模的政府债券发行工作，避免因政府债券供给扰 ...

1月有累计1.7万亿元的买断式逆回购到期量，考虑到月内还有一次6个月期品种操作，且两个期限品种 的买断式逆回购已连续7个月净投放，市场机构仍看好后续6个月期买断式逆回购将加量续作。 "3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作，或与金融机构资金需求的期限结构等有关，不代表央行降低流动性投 放力度。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对证券时报记者表示，为配合政府债券发行，应对潜在流动性 收紧态势，央行大概率会通过买断式逆回购向银行体系注入中期流动性，引导资金面企稳。 日前，财政部已完成首批2026年记账式贴现国债招标发行工作，地方也已开始发行2026年地方政府专项 债券、置换债券，政府债券在年初迎来密集发行。鉴于新的一年我国将保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规 模和支出总量，全国财政工作会议明确将"扩大财政支出盘子"。专家学者一致认为，2026年政府债券规 模将进一步提高。为配合更大规模的政府债券发行工作，避免应政府债券供给扰动银行体系资金面，央 行有必要继续综合施策维护资金面平稳，保持流动性充裕。 中信证券首席经济学家明明在研报中指出，排除中期借贷便利（MLF）以及逆回购到期等因素，1月流 动性缺口大约在1.3万亿元，主要在于政府债供 ...

1月7日，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）发布公告称，将在8日以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展1.1万亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。 鉴于月内有同等规模的到期量，本次操作后将实现3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作。 近年来，货币政策工具特别是流动性投放工具更加多样，期限分布更趋合理。王青表示，预计 1月央行会综合运用买断式逆回购、MLF两项政策工具，持续向市场注入中期流动性。 责编：叶舒筠 校对：许欣 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 1月有累计1.7万亿元的买断式逆回购到期量，考虑到月内还有一次6个月期品种操作，且两个 期限品种的买断式逆回购已连续7个月净投放，市场机构仍看好后续6个月期买断式逆回购将加 量续作。 "3个月期买断式逆回购等量续作，或与金融机构资金需求的期限结构等有关，不代表央行降低 流动性投放力度。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对证券时报记者表示，为配合政府债券发行， 应对潜在流动性收紧态势，央行大概率会通过买断 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].

第 521 期 2025-12-17 焦点关注 河南债市盛会，这些信息值得关注 12月17日，2025债券市场高质量发展大会两大先行会议——创新债券专场会议、资产证券化专场会议在郑州举办。 会议现场，《2025年河南省地方政府投融资平台转型发展报告》正式发布。《报告》系统梳理了河南省区域概况、债务情况、投融资平台转型进展及启示等 内容，为行业发展提供思路与参考。《报告》显示，近几年河南省政府债务规模持续增长，城投平台有息债务规模增速则趋于放缓。截至2024年末，河南省 政府债务余额2.13万亿元，其中一般债务0.66万亿元，专项债务1.47万亿元；全省城投有息负债为2.93万亿元，规模位居全国第7位。 大河财立方记者现场获悉，近年来，河南债券市场亮点纷呈、成效显著，债券发行规模居中部前列，产业类国有企业已成为省内债券发行主力，科创债、绿 色债等创新品种扩容速度加快；城投企业市场化转型成效显著，市场化声明主体数量及隐性债务偿付进度均居中部六省首位。今年以来，全省资产证券化产 品发行规模已超200亿元，创历史最好水平。 河南两大国企整合落地！已签署吸收合并协议 12月17日，河南省自然资源投资集团公告称，已与中国 ...

Group 1 - Henan Province plans to issue a total of 30 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds for 36 projects [1] - The issuance of 114.7563 billion yuan in local bonds includes fixed-rate bonds [1] - The first batch of land reserve special bonds is part of a broader strategy to enhance local infrastructure [1] Group 2 - Chongqing Bank modified its bid for the "25 Weinan City Investment MTN001" bond, reducing the subscription rate from 3% to 2.5% [3] - The initial subscription amount was 1 billion yuan, which was later reduced to 500 million yuan [3] - This change occurred just before the subscription period ended, indicating potential market volatility [3] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [4] - Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need to enhance the role of policy interest rates [4] - The aim is to improve the transmission of interest rates from central bank policies to market rates [4] Group 4 - Hubei Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission plans to explore professional integration of different levels of enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - The focus will be on optimizing the layout and management of state-owned enterprises [7] - The initiative aims to improve the efficiency of state capital operations [7] Group 5 - The first housing voucher for guaranteed housing in Guangzhou Huangpu has been successfully exchanged, valued at 3.429 million yuan [8] - This voucher can be used to purchase properties in designated projects by December 30, 2025 [8] - The program aims to support homeowners in securing housing amid ongoing market challenges [8] Group 6 - Henan Energy Group completed the issuance of a 5 billion yuan short-term financing bond at a rate of 2.30% [9] - The funds raised will be used to repay interest-bearing debts [9] - The bond is backed by a full unconditional guarantee from China Pingmei Shenma Group [9] Group 7 - China Pingmei Shenma Group plans to issue 10 billion yuan in medium-term notes to repay interest-bearing debts [10] - The issuance will be divided into two tranches, with a total of 7 billion yuan for a 3-year term and 3 billion yuan for a 5-year term [10] - The funds are intended to strengthen the company's financial position [10] Group 8 - Xinyang Investment Group has received approval for a 10 billion yuan corporate bond issuance from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [11] - The bond is rated AA+ with a stable outlook [11] - The issuance aims to attract professional investors [11] Group 9 - Xuchang Weiwu Industrial Investment Group's 5 billion yuan corporate bond has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [12] - The bond is rated AA with a stable outlook [12] - The issuance is part of the company's strategy to enhance its capital structure [12] Group 10 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue two types of book-entry discount treasury bonds totaling 100 billion yuan [13] - The bonds will have terms of 63 days and 91 days, with competitive bidding for 400 billion yuan and 600 billion yuan respectively [13] - This issuance is aimed at managing government financing needs [13] Group 11 - The appointment of Yin Chunhua and Kang Shuxia as chairman and general manager of Henan Zhongyu International Port Group has been announced [14] - This leadership change is part of a broader strategy to enhance operational efficiency [14] Group 12 - The total asset transfer of 9,470 million yuan to Gongyi Industrial Investment Development Co., Ltd. has been approved [16] - The assets include stakes in various companies and real estate [16] - This transfer is expected to optimize asset management within the company [16] Group 13 - Country Garden's debt restructuring plan for nine bonds totaling over 13.8 billion yuan has been approved by creditors [16] - This restructuring is part of the company's efforts to manage its financial obligations [16] - The approval indicates a potential stabilization in the company's financial situation [16] Group 14 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a written warning to Water Development Group for violations in information disclosure [17] - The company failed to accurately disclose financial information and timely report significant borrowing [17] - This warning highlights the importance of compliance in financial reporting [17] Group 15 - The outlook for monetary policy in 2026 suggests 2-3 potential rate cuts and increased use of structural tools [19][20] - The focus will be on maintaining a low-interest environment to support economic growth [19][20] - Structural monetary policy tools will target key sectors such as consumption and technology [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent intensive issuance of government bonds reflects the ongoing implementation of proactive fiscal policies aimed at supporting economic growth and ensuring effective use of funds [1][3]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The Ministry of Finance has recently issued 970 billion yuan in coupon-bearing government bonds and 600 billion yuan in discount government bonds, with additional short-term bonds scheduled for issuance [1]. - The issuance of super long-term special government bonds has increased significantly this year, with a total of 1.3 trillion yuan issued, which is 300 billion yuan more than last year [2]. - The issuance schedule for super long-term special government bonds has been accelerated, with the first issuance occurring about a month earlier than last year, facilitating quicker fund deployment [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - Experts indicate that the ongoing issuance of government bonds is a key component of a more aggressive fiscal policy, which is expected to continue in the future [3]. - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special government bonds is projected to contribute 1.7% to 1.9% to GDP growth in 2025, providing crucial support for economic growth targets [2]. - The funds raised from government bond issuance in the fourth quarter are intended to support the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and enhance market liquidity [2]. Group 3: Fund Utilization and Oversight - The effectiveness of government bond fund utilization is critical for policy implementation, necessitating improved oversight and assessment to ensure funds are effectively allocated [3]. - Future fiscal policies are expected to focus on enhancing social confidence and expanding effective demand, particularly in areas such as modern industrial systems and infrastructure upgrades [3].

Regulatory Actions - Three institutions received disciplinary actions from the China Interbank Market Dealers Association for various violations related to private fund management and non-market-based issuance [1] - Shanghai Huancai Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. was warned for assisting an issuer in self-financing issuance through nested asset management plans [1] - Shanghai Fuxi Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Yuning Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. received severe warnings for facilitating non-market-based issuance and charging large financial assistance fees [1] Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 20 billion yuan of book-entry discount treasury bonds with a maturity of 28 days, starting interest accrual on August 12, 2025, and repayment on September 9, 2025 [4] - Hebei Province successfully issued the first batch of local bonds after the restoration of VAT, with a 10-year general bond yielding 1.87% and a total issuance of 30.07 billion yuan [4] Local Government Bonds - Shanxi Province plans to issue 17.73 billion yuan in special new bonds for government investment projects, with two bond series set to be issued on August 15, 2025 [5] Corporate Bonds - Henan Railway Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. plans to issue 30 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with the project accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8] - Kaifeng State-owned Assets Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd. intends to issue 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with feedback received from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [9] - Puyang State-owned Capital Operation Group Co., Ltd. is set to issue 25 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with feedback from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [10] Innovation and Support Measures - The Henan Provincial Government introduced 20 measures to support enterprise technological innovation, focusing on financial services throughout the innovation lifecycle [6] Market Trends - The issuance of floating-rate bonds in Shanxi Province marks a significant development in financial tools, with a total issuance of 10.7 billion yuan by Shanxi Lu'an Mining Group [11][12] - Zhongyuan Environmental Protection completed the issuance of 5 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds with a 2.70% interest rate [13] - State Grid successfully issued 10 billion yuan in offshore dim sum bonds, with initial pricing indicators narrowing significantly [13] Corporate Governance - Foshan Construction Development Group announced the removal of Chairman Huang Guoxian from his position [16] Market Insights - The current structure of pending convertible bonds shows a high concentration, particularly in the banking sector, indicating strong refinancing demand [16]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to changes in VAT policy, leading to increased demand for "fixed income plus" investment opportunities among institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, and brokerages [1] - Institutional investors are adjusting their bond investment strategies to seek higher returns in a low-interest-rate environment, potentially including dividend assets [1] - Public asset management products are benefiting from a "50% reduction" in tax, which may encourage more bank and insurance funds to choose external public asset management for bond investments [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources have jointly released a new action plan for rural road improvement, allowing local governments to use government bonds for eligible rural road projects [3] - The central government will support the development of "Four Good Rural Roads" through existing funding channels, while local governments are responsible for the management and operation of rural roads [3] - There is a strong emphasis on financial supervision to prevent illegal debt borrowing and the accumulation of hidden government debt [3] Group 3 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,385 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,705 billion yuan on that day [4] - The operation was in response to 3,090 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, indicating active liquidity management by the central bank [4] Group 4 - Jiangsu Province has been allocated a new local government debt limit of 280.1 billion yuan for 2025, with 31.6 billion yuan for general debt and 248.5 billion yuan for special debt [8] - The majority of the new debt limits will be transferred to cities and counties for local projects [8] - Zhejiang Province has issued guidelines prohibiting local governments from incurring land reserve debts outside of government bonds to prevent hidden debt [8] Group 5 - Nanyang Transportation Industry Investment Holding Co., Ltd. has received approval to issue 1 billion yuan in corporate bonds [9] - Kaifeng Cultural Tourism Co., Ltd. plans to issue 300 million yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds [11] - Zhengzhou Public Transport Group is set to issue 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with a subscription range of 2.0% to 3.5% [11] Group 6 - Zhoukou City’s government has completed the issuance of 700 million yuan in bonds aimed at supporting small and micro enterprises [14] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan in discount treasury bonds with a maturity of 91 days [14] Group 7 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has publicly reprimanded three bond issuers for failing to disclose their annual reports on time [21] - The issuers were found to have violated regulations regarding the use of raised funds and information disclosure [21] Group 8 - The Eastern Fixed Income Research Team maintains a bullish outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year, expecting a "dual bull market" for stocks and bonds, with stocks outperforming bonds [22] - The team suggests that the bond market is entering a configuration window after a brief adjustment, with liquidity remaining relatively loose [22] - The strategy for city investment bonds includes focusing on short-term positions and exploring yield curve "convex points" [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]