2025-08-08 第 434 期 焦点关注 3家机构遭交易商协会处分 8月8日，中国银行间市场交易商协会发布自律处分信息。 经查，上海寰财私募基金管理有限公司作为相关私募基金管理人，通过自身管理的私募基金嵌套相关资 产管理计划后协助某发行人"自融"发行。 上海复熙资产管理有限公司作为相关资产管理计划管理人，通过自身管理的资管产品协助多家发行人非 市场化发行，并收取大额财务资助或代持服务费。 江苏煜宁私募基金管理有限公司作为相关资产管理计划管理人或投资顾问，通过自身管理的资管产品协 助多家发行人非市场化发行，收取大额财务资助。 经自律处分会议审议，交易商协会对上海寰财予以警告，对复熙资产、江苏煜宁予以严重警告。 宏观动态 财政部拟发行200亿元记账式贴现国债，期限28天 8月8日，财政部发布通知，拟发行2025年记账式贴现（四十九期）国债。 本期国债为期限28天的贴现债。本期国债竞争性招标面值总额200亿元，进行甲类成员追加投标。 本期国债发行价格通过竞争性招标确定，以低于票面金额的价格贴现发行。本期国债自2025年8月12日 开始计息，于2025年9月9日（节假日顺延）按面值偿还。 区域热点 恢复增值税后 ...

第 432 期 8月6日消息，交通运输部、财政部、自然资源部联合发布《新一轮农村公路提升行动方案》。 债券自营策略调整！委外需求增加， 寻求"固收+"投资机会 近日，因增值税政策变化，债券市场出现了明显波动。"新老划断"引发机构抢筹，短期带来了交易性机 会，而长期来看，银行、保险、券商等机构投资者，为了追求低利率时代下更高的收益，或调整债券投 资策略，寻求比如红利资产等"固收+"投资机会。同时，因公募等资管产品享受了"减半"税收优惠，不 排除更多银行保险资金，选择委托外部公募资管的方式进行债券投资。 宏观动态 三部门：各地可继续安排政府债券用于符合条件的农村公路项目建设 2025-08-06 焦点关注 其中提到，中央财政通过现有资金渠道支持"四好农村路"发展。各省份统筹现有资金渠道支持本省份农 村公路建设、管理、养护和运营，市县落实对农村公路的主体责任。各地可继续安排政府债券用于符合 条件的农村公路项目建设。用好农村客运补贴资金保障农村客运稳定运行。加强资金监管，省、市、县 级财政部门做好监督专项资金支付进度工作，加强规划和财政预算的约束，严禁违规举借债务，严禁新 增政府隐性债务。 央行单日净回笼1705亿元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]