Regulatory Actions - Three institutions received disciplinary actions from the China Interbank Market Dealers Association for various violations related to private fund management and non-market-based issuance [1] - Shanghai Huancai Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. was warned for assisting an issuer in self-financing issuance through nested asset management plans [1] - Shanghai Fuxi Asset Management Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Yuning Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. received severe warnings for facilitating non-market-based issuance and charging large financial assistance fees [1] Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 20 billion yuan of book-entry discount treasury bonds with a maturity of 28 days, starting interest accrual on August 12, 2025, and repayment on September 9, 2025 [4] - Hebei Province successfully issued the first batch of local bonds after the restoration of VAT, with a 10-year general bond yielding 1.87% and a total issuance of 30.07 billion yuan [4] Local Government Bonds - Shanxi Province plans to issue 17.73 billion yuan in special new bonds for government investment projects, with two bond series set to be issued on August 15, 2025 [5] Corporate Bonds - Henan Railway Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. plans to issue 30 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with the project accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8] - Kaifeng State-owned Assets Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd. intends to issue 15 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with feedback received from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [9] - Puyang State-owned Capital Operation Group Co., Ltd. is set to issue 25 billion yuan in corporate bonds, with feedback from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [10] Innovation and Support Measures - The Henan Provincial Government introduced 20 measures to support enterprise technological innovation, focusing on financial services throughout the innovation lifecycle [6] Market Trends - The issuance of floating-rate bonds in Shanxi Province marks a significant development in financial tools, with a total issuance of 10.7 billion yuan by Shanxi Lu'an Mining Group [11][12] - Zhongyuan Environmental Protection completed the issuance of 5 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds with a 2.70% interest rate [13] - State Grid successfully issued 10 billion yuan in offshore dim sum bonds, with initial pricing indicators narrowing significantly [13] Corporate Governance - Foshan Construction Development Group announced the removal of Chairman Huang Guoxian from his position [16] Market Insights - The current structure of pending convertible bonds shows a high concentration, particularly in the banking sector, indicating strong refinancing demand [16]

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to changes in VAT policy, leading to increased demand for "fixed income plus" investment opportunities among institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, and brokerages [1] - Institutional investors are adjusting their bond investment strategies to seek higher returns in a low-interest-rate environment, potentially including dividend assets [1] - Public asset management products are benefiting from a "50% reduction" in tax, which may encourage more bank and insurance funds to choose external public asset management for bond investments [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources have jointly released a new action plan for rural road improvement, allowing local governments to use government bonds for eligible rural road projects [3] - The central government will support the development of "Four Good Rural Roads" through existing funding channels, while local governments are responsible for the management and operation of rural roads [3] - There is a strong emphasis on financial supervision to prevent illegal debt borrowing and the accumulation of hidden government debt [3] Group 3 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,385 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,705 billion yuan on that day [4] - The operation was in response to 3,090 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, indicating active liquidity management by the central bank [4] Group 4 - Jiangsu Province has been allocated a new local government debt limit of 280.1 billion yuan for 2025, with 31.6 billion yuan for general debt and 248.5 billion yuan for special debt [8] - The majority of the new debt limits will be transferred to cities and counties for local projects [8] - Zhejiang Province has issued guidelines prohibiting local governments from incurring land reserve debts outside of government bonds to prevent hidden debt [8] Group 5 - Nanyang Transportation Industry Investment Holding Co., Ltd. has received approval to issue 1 billion yuan in corporate bonds [9] - Kaifeng Cultural Tourism Co., Ltd. plans to issue 300 million yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds [11] - Zhengzhou Public Transport Group is set to issue 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes, with a subscription range of 2.0% to 3.5% [11] Group 6 - Zhoukou City’s government has completed the issuance of 700 million yuan in bonds aimed at supporting small and micro enterprises [14] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan in discount treasury bonds with a maturity of 91 days [14] Group 7 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has publicly reprimanded three bond issuers for failing to disclose their annual reports on time [21] - The issuers were found to have violated regulations regarding the use of raised funds and information disclosure [21] Group 8 - The Eastern Fixed Income Research Team maintains a bullish outlook for the bond market in the second half of the year, expecting a "dual bull market" for stocks and bonds, with stocks outperforming bonds [22] - The team suggests that the bond market is entering a configuration window after a brief adjustment, with liquidity remaining relatively loose [22] - The strategy for city investment bonds includes focusing on short-term positions and exploring yield curve "convex points" [22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]