跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当 前欧美市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大 规模裁员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国科技股上涨行情创下纪录。第三季度，相关企业业绩 表现稳健，甚至宣布加码投资，然而市场对人工智能的投资热情有所降温。 美国芯片制造商英伟达19日公布的三季度营收、利润均超预期，对四季度业绩预测也高于预期。英 伟达处理器对于建设人工智能基础设施至关重要，其业绩表现被视为此轮投资热潮的"风向标"。一些分 析师却认为，其最新财报不足以完全消除市场不断加深的对人工智能泡沫的担忧。 得益于人工智能服务需求上升，亚马逊、"字母表"公司、微软和元宇宙平台公司三季度业绩高于预 期，均上调资本支出预期，加码人工智能基础设施投资。四家公司预计今年资本支出总计超3800亿美 元，但各自股价对巨额投资反应不一。 分析人士指出，大型科技公司在人工智能方面进行巨额投资，相关收益充满不确定性。市场研究机 构电子商务市场研究公司分析师雅各布·伯恩认为，企业可能难以 ...

澳大利亚"对话"网站文章认为，在高估值环境下，一旦人工智能发展逊于预期，金融市场将面临沉重打 击。 得益于人工智能服务需求上升，亚马逊、"字母表"公司、微软和元宇宙平台公司三季度业绩高于预期， 均上调资本支出预期，加码人工智能基础设施投资。四家公司预计今年资本支出总计超3800亿美元，但 各自股价对巨额投资反应不一。 分析人士指出，大型科技公司在人工智能方面进行巨额投资，相关收益充满不确定性。市场研究机构电 子商务市场研究公司分析师雅各布·伯恩认为，企业可能难以迅速利用超大规模数据中心提供的产能， 能源、土地、电网接入等物理瓶颈也可能带来阻碍。 美国银行对200余名基金经理的最新调查显示，超半数受访者认为人工智能股票存在泡沫，以"科技股七 巨头"为代表的科技企业投资过度，市场资金过于集中。 新华财经北京11月24日电（记者陈斯达）跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企 业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当前欧美市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩 企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大规模裁员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国 ...

跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当前欧 美市场对人工智能(AI)泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大规模裁 员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国科技股上涨行情创下纪录。第三季度，相关企业业绩表现 稳健，甚至宣布加码投资，然而市场对人工智能的投资热情有所降温。 美国芯片制造商英伟达19日公布的三季度营收、利润均超预期，对四季度业绩预测也高于预期。英伟达 处理器对于建设人工智能基础设施至关重要，其业绩表现被视为此轮投资热潮的"风向标"。一些分析师 却认为，其最新财报不足以完全消除市场不断加深的对人工智能泡沫的担忧。 得益于人工智能服务需求上升，亚马逊、"字母表"公司、微软和元宇宙平台公司三季度业绩高于预期， 均上调资本支出预期，加码人工智能基础设施投资。四家公司预计今年资本支出总计超3800亿美元，但 各自股价对巨额投资反应不一。 分析人士指出，大型科技公司在人工智能方面进行巨额投资，相关收益充满不确定性。市场研究机构电 子商务市场研究公司分析师雅各布·伯恩认为，企业可能难以 ...

新华社北京11月24日电 题：泡沫、壁垒、裁员——从跨国企业季报看世界经济风险与挑战 新华社记者陈斯达 跨国企业三季度财报季接近尾声，欧美日等发达经济体主要企业业绩喜忧参半。分析人士认为，当 前欧美市场对人工智能（AI）泡沫担忧有所上升，关税壁垒压缩企业盈利空间，美国消费低迷叠加大 规模裁员，为世界经济增长带来更多风险挑战。 人工智能泡沫引担忧 今年以来，人工智能基础设施投资激增，美国科技股上涨行情创下纪录。第三季度，相关企业业绩 表现稳健，甚至宣布加码投资，然而市场对人工智能的投资热情有所降温。 美国芯片制造商英伟达19日公布的三季度营收、利润均超预期，对四季度业绩预测也高于预期。英 伟达处理器对于建设人工智能基础设施至关重要，其业绩表现被视为此轮投资热潮的"风向标"。一些分 析师却认为，其最新财报不足以完全消除市场不断加深的对人工智能泡沫的担忧。 美国关税政策冲击在三季度更加凸显，欧洲及日本众多出口导向型企业季度业绩及全年预期明显受 损，美国企业也在承担关税带来的额外成本。 彭博信息研究公司数据显示，随着财报季接近尾声，明晟欧洲指数每股收益增长率达到5.7%，高 于预期。但关税风险切实体现在欧企财报中。 ...

Group 1 - The core issue is that despite China's large population, consumer spending remains low, with retail sales growth significantly lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, only reaching 7.2% in 2023 and dropping to 4-5% in 2025 [2][4][6] - Household savings have surged, with deposits increasing by over 14 trillion in 2024, reaching 151 trillion, and an additional 12.73 trillion added in the first three quarters of 2025, while retail sales growth continues to decline [4][6] - The phenomenon of "14 billion people cannot drive consumption" has become a trending topic, highlighting the disconnect between population size and consumer spending, with urban areas experiencing high vacancy rates in retail spaces [6][8] Group 2 - Key factors contributing to low consumer spending include rapid aging of the population, with over 300 million people aged 60 and above, leading to different consumption habits focused on healthcare and savings rather than discretionary spending [8][10] - The real estate market downturn has negatively impacted wealth expectations, with many families seeing significant declines in property values, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending [10][12] - Income growth is not keeping pace with inflation and housing costs, with nominal growth around 5% in 2025, but real disposable income growth being much lower, causing consumers to prioritize savings over spending [12][14] Group 3 - Excess capacity in various industries has led to price wars and thin profit margins, making it difficult for companies to raise wages, which in turn affects consumer spending [14][16] - A cycle of low spending has emerged, where reduced consumer expenditure leads to lower sales for businesses, stagnant wages, and further reluctance to spend, resulting in a significant portion of funds remaining in banks [16][18] - Government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption have started to show positive effects, with retail sales rebounding in mid-2025 and GDP growth stabilizing at 5.2%, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [18][20]

2025年街上的"旺铺转让"越来越多，某品牌黄金珠宝店2025年净关905家店，平均每天关2.5家；另一品 牌的黄金珠宝店上半年关了74家，三四线城市加盟店撤得最狠。 还有，年初火的干蒸菜，半年就批量闭店；网上非常火的摆摊卤菜月入10万"的视频，结果发现全是雇 人排队骗加盟费，河北一对夫妻交2980学费，开店后日销才五六十元。 根据相关数据发现：2025年上半年全国至少1.71万家实体店关门，餐饮近万家、服饰超4500家，连曾经 的顶流网红店也扛不住。 很多的商铺从开张到橱窗上就贴上了大大的"转让"，就是短短的三五个月，在关门时，老板还会记得开 业时的热闹，但这些终就是一场梦。 并且，大家有没有发现，县城里的商铺倒闭潮，远比于大城市商铺倒闭来得更加明显。 大多数在县城里开店创业，大多数是"梦想多美满，现实就有多骨感"撑不到一年，终究还是撑不住，不 得不选择关门！ 曾经让无数创业者喜欢的商铺，如今正在行业中悄然衰落，也许再也回不到以前的暴利时代了，究竟为 什么会这样？ .01 电商影响太大了 电商的出现改变了人们传统的购物习惯，许多人选择用手机在网上下单，实体店的人流量变得少之又 少。 部分实体店为吸引顾客，频 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry showed a slight improvement in brand performance in Q3 2025, despite ongoing pressures in manufacturing, which is expected to stabilize [4][18] - Revenue for the textile and apparel sector in Q1-Q3 2025 reached 1176.8 billion, with a net profit of 104.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of +0.1% and -3.9% respectively [4][18] - In Q3 2025, the sector achieved revenue and net profit of 379.9 billion and 29.8 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of +0.8% and +3.7% [4][18] Revenue Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, revenue growth rates by segment were as follows: mass market (+1.6%), home textiles (+1.4%), textile manufacturing (-0.1%), mid-to-high-end (-1.5%), and footwear and hats (-2.8%) [2][6] - In Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, home textiles led with a growth of +9.5%, followed by footwear and hats (+4.8%), mass market (+3.6%), textile manufacturing (-1.3%), and mid-to-high-end (-1.6%) [2][6] Profit Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, profit growth rates by segment were: mid-to-high-end (+2.1%), textile manufacturing (-0.6%), home textiles (-3.4%), mass market (-12.4%), and footwear and hats recorded a loss of 0.6 billion [7][6] - In Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, mid-to-high-end profits surged by +36.1%, home textiles by +24.0%, mass market by +8.2%, while textile manufacturing saw a decline of -10.1% [7][6] Segment Analysis Mid-to-High-End - In Q1-Q3 2025, the mid-to-high-end segment reported revenue of 188.8 billion and net profit of 20.2 billion, with year-on-year changes of -1.5% and +2.1% respectively [20] - Q3 2025 figures showed revenue of 59.3 billion and net profit of 6.8 billion, with year-on-year changes of -1.6% and +36.1% [20] Mass Market - The mass market segment achieved revenue of 296.6 billion and net profit of 24.3 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting year-on-year changes of +1.6% and -12.4% [35] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 90.5 billion with a net profit of 4.4 billion, showing year-on-year increases of +3.6% and +8.2% [35] Home Textiles - The home textiles segment reported revenue of 624.1 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of +0.3% [4] - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 379.9 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of +9.5% [4] Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing segment faced challenges with revenue of 117.6 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of -0.1% [4] - In Q3 2025, revenue was down by -1.3% compared to Q3 2024 [6] Operational Quality - In Q3 2025, the cash received from sales as a percentage of revenue improved slightly, indicating stable operational quality across segments [4][6]

Core Insights - The essence of the issue is a strong government, wealthy enterprises, and impoverished residents, leading to high mandatory savings and low income distribution for residents, which directly results in low consumption rates [2][5]. Consumption Data Comparison - China's final consumption rate is approximately 55%, while developed countries average around 80%. Government consumption accounts for 30%, but private consumption is below 70%. The share of household consumption in GDP is less than 40%, lower than the global average of 55% [3]. Consumption Growth Performance - Despite a low consumption rate, consumption growth has been significant, with an average increase of 8.24% over the past 20 years, more than three times that of the U.S. In 2024, consumption is expected to contribute 44.5% to economic growth, remaining the primary driver of China's economy [5]. Distribution Imbalance - The core issue of low consumption is linked to a decline in consumption growth, which is becoming disconnected from GDP growth. The initial distribution of national income shows that the household sector accounts for only 60.6%, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the global average, while the corporate sector is 5.6 percentage points higher [5][7]. Social Security and Wealth Gap - The inadequacy of the social security system contributes to a persistent wealth gap, with China's Gini coefficient reflecting a modest reduction of 12%, compared to a 40% reduction in Europe. High housing prices and insufficient affordable housing force low- and middle-income individuals to allocate savings to real estate, limiting funds available for daily consumption [5][7]. Short-term Consumption Weakness - Recent years have seen a worsening of consumption shortfalls, with household income growth lagging behind nominal GDP. Despite a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, retail sales only grew by 4.5%, indicating a weak recovery in consumption [7]. Structural Reform Recommendations - To address the consumption gap, estimated at 6% of GDP (approximately 2.9 trillion yuan annually), structural reforms are necessary rather than temporary measures like vouchers or discounts [7][8]. Six Structural Reform Directions 1. Transition the government from an investment-focused model to a service-oriented one, enhancing social security, healthcare, education, and elderly care [8]. 2. Increase the return of state-owned enterprise profits to society, preventing excessive reinvestment of profits [8]. 3. Reform income distribution to raise the share of household income in national income [8]. 4. Strengthen social security systems to alleviate the pressure of precautionary savings on residents [8]. 5. Adjust housing policies to provide more affordable housing for low- and middle-income groups [8]. 6. Restore confidence in income and asset expectations, as all three elements are essential [8]. Historical Opportunity and Fundamental Path - The current period is seen as a critical window for China to transition from a wealthy nation to one that enriches its citizens. Improving household income and restoring consumption capacity are vital for making consumption the engine of China's economic internal circulation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Jianyin International indicates a downward revision of Qingdao Beer Co., Ltd.'s net profit forecasts for the next two years by 3% and 4% respectively, reflecting a slowdown in average selling price growth and a more cautious sales outlook [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, Qingdao Beer reported a year-on-year net profit increase of 1.6% to 1.37 billion RMB, but this fell short of both the bank's and market expectations due to poor revenue performance [1] - The bank anticipates that the fourth quarter and early 2026 will see some support from pre-Spring Festival inventory and consumption stimulus policies [1] Valuation Adjustments - The valuation benchmark has been shifted to 2026, with the EV/EBITDA multiple reduced from 12 times to 10 times to reflect the current state of sluggish consumption and a slower high-end product transition compared to peers [1] Profitability Projections - The bank projects a 0.2 percentage point increase in gross margin to 42% and a 0.3 percentage point increase in EBIT margin to 15.8% by 2026, driven by low-cost barley and continuous improvement in product structure [1] Strategic Decisions - The group has terminated its plan to acquire Shandong Jimo Yellow Wine as of October 26, which eliminates uncertainties related to the transaction's impact on operations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has downgraded the profit forecasts for Qingdao Beer (600600) for the next two years by 3% and 4% respectively, reflecting a slowdown in average selling price growth and a more cautious sales outlook [1] Financial Projections - The valuation benchmark has been shifted to 2026, with the EV/EBITDA multiple reduced from 12x to 10x to account for sluggish consumption and a slower premiumization process compared to peers [1] - The target price for the group's H-shares has been lowered by 7%, from HKD 55.6 to HKD 51.5, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Performance Analysis - In Q3, Qingdao Beer reported a net profit increase of 1.6% year-on-year to RMB 1.37 billion, but this fell short of both the firm's and market expectations due to poor revenue performance [1] - Despite pre-Spring Festival inventory buildup and consumption stimulus policies providing some support, the firm anticipates that the consumption market will remain weak through Q4 and into early 2026 [1] Market Dynamics - The normalization of industry promotional activities limits the risks to the group's sales growth and market share [1] - Revenue growth is projected to accelerate to 2.6% by 2026, driven by a 1.7% increase in sales volume and a 1% rise in average selling price [1] Margin Expectations - With the low-cost structure of Dama and ongoing product mix improvements, the firm assumes that the gross margin will increase by 0.2 percentage points to 42% by 2026, and the EBIT margin will rise by 0.3 percentage points to 15.8% [1] Strategic Decisions - The group has terminated its plan to acquire Shandong Jimo Yellow Wine as of October 26, eliminating uncertainties related to the transaction's impact on operations [1]