| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 21,090.00 15.00 | +410.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,875.00 -36.00 | +7.00↑ +7.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 203,279.00 | +12748.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 294,498.00 | +9203.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 107,625.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 188,223.00 | +9023.00↑ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,750.50 | +8.50↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 506,400.00 | +1075.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 沪铝前20名净持仓（日，手） | ...

谈及看好的板块，她表示，可关注通胀叙事下的周期品，如有色、化工，"反内卷"夯实估值底部；可关 注出口韧性提升、涨幅相对少的行业，如机械设备、电力设备、医药；企业盈利修复之后，内需相关领 域也将出现投资机会，配合对消费政策的积极预期，行情可能轮动到消费和地产板块。 中证报中证网讯(记者魏昭宇)9月25日晚间，路博迈基金首席市场策略师朱冰倩在中国证券报"中证点金 汇"直播间表示，自去年"924"政策推出后，中国资产定价逻辑发生了较大变化，企业盈利下行风险减 少，中长期表现可期。 在投资思路方面，她表示，9月美联储降息窗口开启之后，制造业的前景或更加明朗，并且由于对利率 下行的敏感度不同，投资主线除了落脚到AI科技板块，还有可能扩散到制造业。 ...

Economic Situation - Current economic pressures on investment and consumption are increasing, indicating that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent[1] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate recovery[1] - Retail sales growth has declined to 3.4% year-on-year in August, suggesting potential consumption pressures in the fourth quarter due to high base effects from last year[1] Policy Timing and Direction - The key window for new policies is expected in mid to late October, with the fourth plenary session of the Central Committee being a significant event[1] - There are four areas where policy space remains: early use of debt quotas, introduction of new policy financial tools, increased likelihood of interest rate cuts, and potential adjustments to consumer subsidy policies[1][2] Financial Tools and Measures - The anticipated scale of new policy financial tools is around 500 billion RMB, aimed at stabilizing investment growth in Q4[1] - Early use of debt quotas could free up significant funds for economic construction, with a potential 2.8 trillion RMB available for 2026[1] - The probability of interest rate cuts has increased, which would lower costs for homebuyers and businesses[2] Consumption Policies - Adjustments to subsidy funds and expanding the scope of "trade-in" subsidies could stabilize consumption growth, which has been pressured by insufficient funding[1] - New policies to support service consumption are expected to be implemented in Q4, with a focus on innovative service consumption measures[1] Overall Policy Approach - The new round of growth stabilization policies is characterized as supportive rather than aggressive, aiming to stabilize growth without compromising quality[1] - The projected GDP growth for the first three quarters is around 5.1%, with a target of maintaining growth above 4.5% in Q4 to achieve an annual target of approximately 5%[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economic growth in August continued to slow down, with industrial production, consumption, and investment all showing signs of weakness. Insufficient effective demand remains the core contradiction [1][8]. - Given the slowdown in economic growth, macro - policies need to play a role in promoting economic recovery. Fiscal, consumption, and real - estate policies are expected to be further adjusted [2][9]. - The bond market is supported by insufficient effective demand and weak fundamental recovery, but potential risks from subsequent policy efforts need to be noted. Bond market fluctuations may depend more on marginal changes in institutional behavior and capital flows [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 8 月经济数据：经济增长再放缓 - In August, industrial增加值 was 5.2% year - on - year (expected 5.7%, previous value 5.7%), social retail sales were 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.8%, previous value 3.7%), and fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 0.5% (expected 1.3%, previous value 1.6%). Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment all declined [8]. 工业生产韧性尚存，环比动能略降 - In August, the year - on - year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to August was 6.2%. The growth of the service industry production index was 5.6%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [14]. - The year - on - year growth rates of the electrical machinery and chemical industries increased significantly, while those of the special equipment and transportation equipment industries declined. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries was 8.1% and 9.3% respectively, 2.9 and 4.1 percentage points faster than the overall industrial added value [16][17]. - The output of emerging products such as robot reducers, industrial robots, 3D printing equipment, and industrial control computers and systems increased rapidly [17]. 消费增速延续回落，增量政策箭在弦上 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, 0.3 percentage points lower than in July, the lowest increase this year. The growth rate of commodity retail sales decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the growth rate of catering revenue increased by 1.0 percentage point but remained at a relatively low level [19]. - The effect of the "trade - in" policy weakened, and the subsidy method adjustment in some areas affected the policy's immediate pulling effect. The weak performance of commodity sales, especially the sluggish automobile consumption, also dragged down the overall retail sales [21][22]. - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on expanding service consumption policies [10][24]. 投资增速出现下行，继续低位磨底 - From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 0.5%, 1.1 percentage points lower than from January to July, showing a downward trend. The investment structure was characterized by "slowing manufacturing, declining infrastructure, and real - estate drag" [25]. - Manufacturing investment cumulative year - on - year was 5.1%. The policy effect of large - scale equipment renewal continued to be released, with equipment purchase investment growing rapidly. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation may decline, and corporate medium - and long - term loans increased less year - on - year [28]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) cumulative year - on - year was 2.0%, with the construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects slowing down. The high - temperature and rainy weather in August affected construction, and the capital in - place situation of some projects may not meet expectations due to local government debt - resolution pressure [28][29]. - Real - estate investment cumulative year - on - year was - 12.9%. The decline in sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing widened, and real - estate development investment reached the largest decline this year. The real - estate market was still in the stage of "trading price for volume", and real - estate relaxation policies may need to be actively implemented in the second half of the year [29].

Group 1 - The consumer sector showed strong performance on September 15, with the Consumer Leader ETF (516130) experiencing a rise of 0.73% during trading [1][3] - Key stocks in various sub-sectors such as automotive, construction, machinery, and agriculture saw significant gains, with Top Group rising over 8% and several others like Desai Xiwai and Huatu Shanding increasing over 7% [1][3] - The market is shifting focus from technology stocks, particularly those related to AI, to consumer sectors that have seen relatively lower valuations [1][3] Group 2 - The Consumer Leader ETF tracks the Consumer Leader Index, which selects the most representative and high-quality companies in the consumer sector, including major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Gree Electric [5] - The index's price-to-earnings ratio was reported at 18.5 times, indicating a low valuation compared to historical data, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - Upcoming consumption policies, particularly in regions like Zhejiang, are expected to stimulate domestic consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially boosting the overall consumer sector [4]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/12 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 焦煤盘面升水，价格受"反内卷"政策预期扰动仍大 2025年9月11日，焦煤期货收盘上涨26.0元，涨幅达2.33% ，收于1141元。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从基本面来看，山西安检趋严或许会阶段性限制产量释放，但目前钢厂利润修复有限，铁水产量处 于中低位，焦炭刚需不足，而且焦化厂库存高企，采购意愿低迷。 从消息面来说，煤矿供应端扰动或持续至十一前后，但双焦下游采购节奏放缓，投机需求有所弱化。 整体来看，碳元素供应依然充裕，下游铁水有逐渐恢复的预期，受事件影响短期降幅较大，市场情 绪对煤炭查超产仍有预期。 焦炭盘面升水，焦煤盘面升水，价格受"反内卷"政策预期扰动仍大，波动率较大。把握震荡偏多 的机会。 GOLDT ...

Group 1 - The insurance industry in China achieved original premium income of 42,085 billion yuan from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 6.75% [1] - In the same period, the life insurance sector reported premium income of 33,202.78 billion yuan, growing by 7.53% year-on-year, with a notable increase compared to the previous growth rate of 5.64% [1] - The property insurance sector generated premium income of 8,882.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.95%, slightly narrowing from the previous growth rate of 4.06% [1] Group 2 - In July 2025, the insurance industry recorded original premium income of 4,735.47 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.70% [2] - The life insurance business achieved premium income of 3,596.78 billion yuan in July, with a significant year-on-year increase of 26.04%, driven by a reduction in the preset interest rate [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 39.59 trillion yuan by the end of July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.78% [3] Group 3 - Life insurance companies accounted for 87.61% of the total assets in the insurance industry, with total assets amounting to 34.69 trillion yuan [3] - The net assets of the insurance industry grew by 26.07% year-on-year, reaching 3.84 trillion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses potential demand-side policy reserves that may be implemented in the near future, focusing on both the restart or optimization of existing policies and new initiatives that are currently in progress [2][3]. Group 1: Infrastructure Investment - There will be an increase in infrastructure investment in the second half of the year, driven by the introduction of new policy financial tools and the commencement of major projects in water conservancy and railways [2]. - Significant projects from the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be expedited before the planning period ends [2]. Group 2: Consumer Sector Policies - The Ministry of Commerce has announced that new policies to expand service consumption will be introduced in September, which may include the relaxation of consumption restrictions such as vehicle purchase quotas [3]. - There is a focus on increasing income through various measures, including potential adjustments to minimum wage standards and new policies in elder care and employment [4]. Group 3: Policy Dimensions - The article categorizes potential policies into two dimensions: existing policy expansion/optimization and new policies that are in progress [5]. - Existing policies may include increasing revenue through profit remittances from state-owned enterprises and enhancing local fiscal capacity by adjusting consumption tax collection [5]. Group 4: Investment and Real Estate - Major engineering projects, such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the New Tibet Railway, are expected to be expedited [5]. - Policies aimed at reducing the financial burden on homebuyers, such as lowering transaction costs and down payment ratios, are also anticipated [5]. Group 5: Social Welfare and Employment - There is a potential increase in social welfare support related to childbirth, elderly care, and unemployment, alongside enhanced employment support measures [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of improving minimum wage standards across provinces [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is characterized by "low growth and high volatility," with increasing debt levels and persistent inflation, leading to a complex and challenging economic environment [5][6]. Group 1: Global Debt Issues - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 95.1% and may rise to 99.6% by 2030, with developed countries like Japan exceeding 250% and the U.S. around 125% [9]. - The increase in government debt is linked to historical events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced governments to leverage debt to maintain stability [9][11]. - The debt cycle varies across sectors, with corporate debt being the shortest, human life cycles being medium, and national debt cycles being the longest due to government credit [9][10]. Group 2: China's Debt Landscape - China's debt situation differs from Western countries, with a central government leverage ratio of only 25%, but local government debt pressures are rising significantly [15]. - The macro leverage ratio, including hidden debts, is approaching 300%, surpassing the average levels of Western nations, indicating a need for caution [15][16]. - The debt issue in China is closely tied to its economic growth model, where investment contributes over 40% to GDP, leading to a cycle of "investment-debt" [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook for 2025 - The Chinese economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, with export data performing well and consumption boosted by a 300 billion yuan policy [21][22]. - However, there are concerns about economic downward pressure in the second half, with investment growth slowing and real estate investment declining [22][23]. - Recommendations for policy adjustments include expanding consumption policies to benefit lower-income groups and enhancing social security to support human capital development [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold has been a strong performer, reflecting deep changes in the global economic landscape, and is seen as a suitable hedge in a high-volatility, low-growth environment [21][24]. - The capital market is expected to find balance, with A-shares potentially outperforming due to reasonable valuations and improving investor sentiment [23][24].

Group 1 - The report highlights that consumer spending has weakened since peaking in May-June 2025, with retail sales growth for January to July 2025 at 4.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous period, significantly impacted by the restaurant sector, which saw a growth rate of 3.8% [2][3] - Industrial value-added growth for July 2025 was 6.3%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from June, with production in "anti-involution" sectors like automotive and photovoltaic experiencing notable decreases [3][4] - Fixed asset investment growth has accelerated its decline, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.6% in July 2025, down 1.2 percentage points from June, driven by weak performance in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors [3][5] Group 2 - The bond market has shown a weakening in pricing based on fundamentals, with the yield curve flattening, indicating pessimistic expectations for the economy despite weak demand in the real sector [3] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield will range between 1.65% and 1.80% in August and September 2025, with conditions for further yield declines being more stringent [3] - The report notes that August is a peak supply month for government bonds, and if market adjustments worsen, there is a possibility that the central bank may restart bond purchases [3]