Core Insights - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market has successfully registered 31 projects and 15.04 million tons of CCER, with a cumulative transaction volume of 3.25 million tons and a transaction value of 270 million yuan, indicating a rapid development phase for the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development - The market has achieved its initial construction goals since its launch in January last year, with active trading of emission reductions and improved participation and awareness among market entities [2]. - The market's operational framework has been established across three dimensions: management systems, technical methods, and infrastructure, ensuring the integrity and regulatory compliance of voluntary reduction projects and emission reductions [2][3]. - The market has expanded its support to six project categories, including afforestation carbon sinks and offshore wind power, and has opened a long-term window for methodological suggestions from various sectors to accelerate the development of methodologies [2][3]. Group 2: Future Directions - The market aims to accelerate the expansion of supported areas and construct a high-standard methodological system for voluntary emission reduction trading, encouraging exploration of advanced low-carbon technologies [3]. - There is a focus on improving data quality supervision mechanisms, enhancing the information and intelligence level of data quality management, and building the capacity of market participants to provide high-quality carbon credit products [3]. - The market will deepen international exchanges and cooperation, aligning with international carbon markets to enhance China's carbon market's global influence [3].

Core Viewpoint - China is recognized as a proactive and pragmatic actor in addressing climate change, demonstrating strong commitment to international cooperation and low-carbon technology development [1] Group 1: National Contributions and Goals - China announced its 2035 national contribution target, marking a significant shift to an absolute reduction goal for all greenhouse gases, aiming for a 7%-10% decrease from peak levels [2] - The new target includes a quantitative indicator of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by over 1 billion tons of CO2 equivalent by 2035, showcasing unprecedented ambition [2] - The "1+3+3" framework includes three quantitative indicators for 2030, such as increasing non-fossil energy consumption to over 30% and expanding wind and solar power capacity significantly [2][3] Group 2: Achievements in Climate Change Mitigation - Over the past five years, China has made significant progress in building a new energy system and promoting green low-carbon transformation across various sectors [4] - The report highlights improvements in carbon sink capabilities and the establishment of a national carbon trading market to enforce mandatory emission reductions [4] Group 3: Future Directions and International Cooperation - The national carbon trading market will expand its coverage and gradually shift from intensity control to total volume control, with a focus on both free and paid allocation methods [5] - China aims to support the upcoming COP30 in Brazil to achieve balanced outcomes, emphasizing the importance of multilateralism and the need for developed countries to fulfill their responsibilities [6] - The country seeks to create a favorable international environment for the free flow of green low-carbon products and to address the challenges posed by unilateralism and protectionism [6]

Core Viewpoint - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market has successfully registered 31 projects and 15.04 million tons of CCER, with a cumulative transaction volume of 3.25 million tons and a transaction value of 270 million yuan, indicating a rapid development phase for the market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Development - The market has achieved its initial construction goals since its launch in January last year, with active trading of emission reductions and improved participation from market entities [3]. - The market's operational framework has been established across three dimensions: management systems, technical methods, and infrastructure, ensuring the integrity and standardization of voluntary reduction projects and emission reductions [3][4]. - The market has expanded its support to six types of projects, including afforestation carbon sinks and offshore wind power, and has opened a long-term suggestion window for methodology collection from various sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Future Plans - The market aims to accelerate the expansion of supported areas and construct a high-standard methodology system for voluntary emission reduction trading, encouraging exploration of advanced low-carbon technologies [4]. - There is a focus on improving the regulatory mechanism for data quality, enhancing the information technology and intelligence level of data quality supervision, and building the capacity of market entities to provide high-quality carbon credit products [5]. - The market intends to deepen international exchanges and cooperation, aligning with international carbon markets to enhance China's carbon market's global influence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market is entering a critical phase of rapid development, aiming to stimulate societal participation in emission reductions and promote ecological value conversion [1] Group 1: Market Development - The market will accelerate the expansion of supported sectors and establish a high-standard methodological system for the voluntary emission reduction trading market [1] - There is an encouragement for various sectors to explore advanced technologies for low-carbon, zero-carbon, and even negative-carbon solutions [1] Group 2: Data Quality and Regulation - A robust regulatory mechanism for data quality will be established to enhance the informatization and intelligence level of data quality supervision [1] - There will be a focus on building the capacity of market participants and providing high-quality carbon credit products to society [1] Group 3: International Cooperation - The initiative will deepen international exchanges and cooperation, ensuring alignment with international carbon markets [1] - The goal is to further enhance the international influence of China's carbon market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Short - term copper prices are under slight pressure due to macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption. The cross - market long - position arbitrage should be continued, and options should be on hold [4][11]. - Alumina: Alumina prices are expected to run weakly. The domestic and international spot prices are falling in resonance, and the fundamentals are in a weak trend [13][14]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to remain weak in the short term until there is a significant improvement in consumption. Arbitrage and options should be on hold for now [19][22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures is expected to run weakly following the aluminum price. Arbitrage and options should be on hold [26][29]. - Zinc: Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Overseas de - stocking may support zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if LME stocks increase significantly [32]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply may increase, and downstream enterprises may stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. Although demand is in the peak season, supply is growing faster, and the net import in September is expected to decline [42]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Production has increased in September, but demand has not shown seasonal strength, and there is both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and demand is sluggish, but there are signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices may continue to correct in the short term. The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on prices [63]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to rise after a sufficient correction. Although there is a risk of demand decline in October, the spot price is firm under the restricted sales background [67]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range shock. The supply and demand are both strong, but there is hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%, and the Shanghai Copper index reduced its position by 10,887 lots to 466,700 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract of alumina decreased by 57 yuan to 2,877 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions also declined [8]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 85 yuan to 20,685 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased by 70 yuan/ton [16]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The 2511 contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 60 yuan to 20,255 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained flat [25]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 0.68% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc index increased its position by 10,195 lots to 250,300 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [28][30]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai Lead 2511 decreased by 0.44% to 17,085 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead index reduced its position by 1,965 lots to 99,000 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead decreased by 25 yuan/ton [33]. - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 decreased by 720 to 120,910 yuan/ton, and the index increased its position by 4,391 lots. The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract SS2511 of stainless steel decreased by 20 to 12,890 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 4,758 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [47]. - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2510 closed at 269,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 1,480 yuan/ton or 0.55%, and the position decreased by 1,058 lots to 52,059 lots. The spot price of tin decreased, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.3%. The spot price remained stable [60][61]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures increased its position and then decreased, and finally rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.745. The spot price remained stable [64]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate decreased by 120 to 73,660 yuan/ton, and the index reduced its position by 19,991 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increased by 540 to 39,449 tons. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [68]. Important Information - **Copper**: In August, China's copper concentrate imports increased, and the export of copper cables showed different performances in different regions. The copper mine supply was tight, and the production in some regions decreased [3][4]. - **Alumina**: There were transactions in the spot market, and the import and export volumes in August changed. The freight policy in Henan affected the inventory of downstream factories [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: There were diplomatic meetings, inventory changes, and information about the start - up of an overseas project. The import and export volumes of aluminum ingots in August also changed [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: A policy affected the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange started the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy [25]. - **Zinc**: The domestic refined zinc inventory changed, and the start - up rate of压铸 zinc alloy enterprises was affected by the typhoon [31]. - **Lead**: The import of lead concentrate increased, and the import and export of lead - acid batteries decreased [36]. - **Nickel**: There were some news about the mining company in Indonesia and the cobalt export policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [41]. - **Stainless Steel**: The import tariff affected the stainless steel market, and the import volume from Vietnam decreased. The apparent consumption of stainless steel in China increased [48]. - **Tin**: China's tin ore imports in August changed, and an Indonesian mining company planned to increase production. An American tin smelter started construction [54]. - **Industrial Silicon**: China's industrial silicon exports in August increased [62]. - **Polysilicon**: The national energy consumption data in August was released [65]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There were news about the carbon emission trading market and the lithium production cooperation in Chile [69]. Logic Analysis - **Copper**: Macro factors, supply tightness, and weak terminal consumption led to short - term pressure on copper prices [4]. - **Alumina**: The domestic and international spot prices were falling in resonance, and the supply of bauxite was expected to increase, resulting in a weak fundamental trend [13]. - **Aluminum**: The Fed's attitude towards further interest rate cuts was cautious, and the domestic market needed to pay attention to downstream stocking before the holiday [19]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises stocked up in advance, and the start - up rate of die - casting factories increased, so the alloy ingot price was expected to be stable and slightly strong [26]. - **Zinc**: The supply of refined zinc in September might decrease slightly, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream replenishment was expected to be limited, and the overseas de - stocking might support zinc prices [32]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots might increase, and downstream enterprises might stock up before the holiday, resulting in a combination of long and short factors [37]. - **Nickel**: Although demand was in the peak season, supply was growing faster, and the net import in September was expected to decline [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: Production increased in September, but demand did not show seasonal strength, and there was both supply pressure and cost support [49][51]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore was still tight, and demand was sluggish, but there were signs of short - term supply improvement [55]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inventory structure was "low at both ends and high in the middle", and the production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on prices [63]. - **Polysilicon**: There was a short - term negative impact on the futures price, but the spot price was rising steadily, and it was recommended to buy after a sufficient correction [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increase was limited in the short term, and demand was strong, but there was hedging pressure and a slight increase in the customer - supplied ratio next month [70][72]. Trading Strategies - **Copper**: Short - term short - selling for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market long - position arbitrage, and hold options [11]. - **Alumina**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly [14]. - **Aluminum**: Single - side trading, expect prices to remain weak in the short term; hold for arbitrage and options [22][23]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Single - side trading, expect prices to run weakly following the aluminum price; hold for arbitrage and options [29]. - **Zinc**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate within a range; hold for arbitrage and options [32]. - **Lead**: Single - side trading, expect prices to fluctuate at a high level, and try short - selling at high prices; hold for arbitrage and options [38]. - **Nickel**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage and options [43][44][45]. - **Stainless Steel**: No specific trading strategy was mentioned in the report. - **Tin**: Single - side trading, expect high - level shocks [56]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Single - side trading, buy after the correction stabilizes; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [63]. - **Polysilicon**: Single - side trading, buy after a sufficient correction; conduct reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; no option strategy [67]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Single - side trading, expect wide - range shocks; hold for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle option combinations [73].

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments announced 20 measures to promote the expansion and upgrade of the "15-minute convenient living circle" by 2030, aiming to establish 100 pilot cities and create 10,000 well-structured living circles with a resident satisfaction rate of over 90% and a chain store rate of over 30% [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that China has built the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions, and has initiated a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, issued a "Light Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to enhance the role of light industry in economic stability, with a focus on new growth points such as smart home products and sports leisure products [2] - The Ministry of Transport released a plan to build high-quality data sets for the transportation industry by 2030, aiming to improve data supply and support the development of intelligent transportation networks [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration reported that China's civil aviation achieved a total transportation turnover of 151.8 billion ton-kilometers in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 8% [3] Market Updates - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations, which will now be conducted with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding [3] - The National Foreign Exchange Administration reported that in August 2025, banks settled 15,103 billion yuan and sold 14,058 billion yuan, with cumulative settlements from January to August reaching 113,938 billion yuan [3] - The China Automobile Industry Association is conducting an anti-discrimination investigation in response to the U.S. measures against China's integrated circuit sector, focusing on the impact on the automotive industry [4] Housing and Automotive Industry - Shanghai has optimized its housing property tax pilot policies, providing tax exemptions for high-level talents and first-time homebuyers under certain conditions [5] - Xiaomi Auto Technology has initiated a recall of 116,887 electric vehicles produced between February 6, 2024, and August 30, 2025, in compliance with regulations [5]

Group 1 - The main contracts in the futures market show a bearish sentiment, with 30 contracts rising and 48 contracts falling today [2] - The most significant gainers include industrial silicon (+3.62%), soybean meal (+2.15%), and lithium carbonate (+1.62%), driven by supply-demand factors [5] - The most significant losers include the shipping index (European line) (-6.00%) and paraxylene (-2.51%), likely influenced by increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Group 2 - The largest inflows of capital were seen in gold (+2.922 billion), silver (+1.823 billion), and iron ore (+816 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest outflows were from copper (-867 million), the SSE 50 index (-537 million), and polysilicon (-284 million), suggesting significant capital withdrawal [8] Group 3 - Notable increases in open interest were observed in styrene (+21.73%), caustic soda (+12.23%), and PTA (+11.47%), indicating high trading activity and potential new capital inflow [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in copper (-8.84%), double-sided paper (-8.9%), and lead (-16.12%), suggesting capital withdrawal and potential caution in future performance [11] Group 4 - The Shanghai export container freight index fell by 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, reflecting a decline in shipping demand [12] - The inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 0.26% week-on-week, totaling 286,000 tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [14] Group 5 - The iron ore main contract rose by 0.81% to 807.5 yuan/ton, supported by tightening supply and recovering demand [25] - The caustic soda main contract increased by 0.08% to 1318 yuan/ton, despite a decline in downstream acceptance of high prices [26]

Core Insights - The Chinese carbon market has achieved a cumulative transaction volume of nearly 49 billion yuan, indicating significant progress in carbon trading and emissions reduction efforts [1] Group 1: Air Quality Improvement - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that PM2.5 concentrations in key regions are projected to decrease by 18%, 10%, and 20% by 2024 compared to 2020 levels [1] - Nationally, PM2.5 concentrations are expected to drop to 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024, a reduction of 16.3% from 2020, with good air quality days increasing to 87.2% [3] - From January to August, PM2.5 concentrations in cities decreased by 1.2 micrograms per cubic meter, a 4.6% decline year-on-year [3] Group 2: Water Quality and Pollution Control - Over 90% of major rivers and lakes have achieved good water quality, with the proportion of good water quality monitoring points reaching 90.4% for the first time [3] - The Ministry has identified over 360,000 pollution outlets and completed remediation in major river basins, achieving a 90% completion rate [2] Group 3: Soil and Solid Waste Management - The Ministry has implemented soil pollution prevention actions, completing pollution tracing in 132 key counties and achieving over 45% rural sewage treatment [1][2] - The "No Waste City" initiative is being advanced, with a complete ban on foreign waste imports and actions against illegal waste disposal [2] Group 4: Carbon Emission Reduction Initiatives - The country has completed ultra-low emissions upgrades for 1.12 billion kilowatts of coal power and 950 million tons of crude steel capacity [2] - A voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market has been initiated, enhancing the internal drive for green development [2] Group 5: Biodiversity and Ecological Protection - The area of ecological protection red lines has exceeded 30%, with 90% of terrestrial ecosystem types and 74% of key wildlife populations effectively protected [2] - The Ministry has addressed 4,545 key issues related to national nature reserves, with most rectifications completed [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant progress made in China's ecological and environmental protection efforts during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including the reduction of high-emission vehicles and improvements in air and water quality [2][4] - The area of ecological protection red lines in China exceeds 30%, indicating a strong commitment to land conservation [3] - The country has successfully eliminated nearly 20 million high-emission vehicles as part of its pollution prevention strategy [2] Group 2 - The PM2.5 concentration in major cities has decreased by 16.3% compared to 2020, reaching 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter in 2024 [4] - The proportion of good air quality days has increased to 87.2%, up by 2.4 percentage points from 2020 [4] - The national water quality has improved, with 90.4% of surface water quality monitoring points meeting good quality standards, marking the first time this figure has exceeded 90% [4] Group 3 - China has established the world's largest carbon emissions trading market, covering over 60% of the country's carbon emissions [3] - The country has completed ultra-low emission transformations for 1.12 billion kilowatts of coal power units and 950 million tons of crude steel capacity [3] - The government is actively promoting the voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market and enhancing the product carbon footprint management system [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading system is a crucial task for enhancing China's green low-carbon development mechanism, creating significant market opportunities, and promoting the implementation of national contributions to global climate governance [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy and Guidelines - The Central Committee and the State Council emphasize the importance of building a national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market as part of the national carbon market system [2][3]. - The "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" serves as a specific requirement and action guide for implementing Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought [1][3]. - The national voluntary emission reduction trading market aims to be more effective, vibrant, and internationally influential, with clear goals set by Xi Jinping [2][3]. Group 2: Progress and Implementation - The national voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market is set to launch in January 2024, with significant progress already made [4]. - A policy and regulatory framework has been established, including the "Management Measures for Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading (Trial)" and various supporting normative documents [5]. - The registration and trading systems for the voluntary emission reduction market have been successfully developed and are operational [6]. Group 3: Market Development and Methodology - A methodology system is being constructed to support the trading market, focusing on key areas for carbon peak and neutrality, and integrating international rules [8]. - The market is expected to expand its trading products and participants, enhancing the CCER price discovery mechanism and creating more demand for CCER [9]. Group 4: Regulatory and International Cooperation - A joint regulatory mechanism is being established to ensure high-quality CCER market supply and to prevent systemic risks [9]. - The market aims to engage in international cooperation, promoting China's green low-carbon technologies and aligning with international mechanisms [9].