Z0015545 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-24 生猪价格重心下行，玉米盘面突破 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 生猪 上周生猪期货延续下行趋势，LH2601 合约报收 11350 元/吨， 较前周结算价下跌 3.73%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.74 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.22 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 21 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-135.9 元/头，环比下降 21.09 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-234.63 元/头，环比下降 28.99 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.23，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格先跌后稳，市场供应相对宽松，散户扛 价惜售情绪较弱，周初价格再度下跌；随着气温下降，局部需求有 所回暖，养殖场成交好转，生猪价格止跌趋稳。目前来看，养殖端 低价抵触情绪升温，但整体出栏压力仍存，同时终端需求暂未有较 大提升，屠宰部分虽有增加，但供应增量大于需求增量，需求端支 撑有限，生猪供应过剩的局面仍在，预计短期生猪价格反弹发力， 持续关注养殖场出栏节奏及出栏情绪变化 ...

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业周报 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/11/23 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 玉米供应处于存量消耗阶段，集中卖压高峰度过，卖压转向分散或阶段性表现，华北降水导致的供应结构问 题有所凸显，下游需求表现坚挺，供需结构继续向平衡甚至转移，价格延续上周上涨，在增产压力表现温 和，进口压力明显趋弱及需求稳定预期下，供需结构从长期看有偏紧预期； 周度东北产区表现稳中偏强，涨势趋弱，其他产区价格走高刺激黑黑吉产区"提价留粮 "，锦州港收购价格保 持强势走高，幅度不急强一周，库存有所增加，南港价格较为稳定，港口库存减少；华北黄淮产区价格表现 分化，山东地区受到现货上量低位及刚需支撑，下游企业仍有大范围提价收购动作，涨势属产区最强区域； 连盘玉米盘面主力连续三周收阳，周度持仓及成交变化不大，收盘于2195元/吨，周五夜盘停收于2201元，站 上2200元关口，注册仓单68764手 。 —— 现货区域表现分化 期货市场走高 整体来看，周度玉米市场延续中旬以来偏强运行特征，但涨势有所趋缓，在季节性上市压力下呈现转强表 现， ...

研究报告 整数关口博弈加剧，供需格局主导后市节奏 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周玉米期货盘面价格先跌后涨，周初价格持续小幅下行， 周五出现强势反弹，截至上周五收盘，玉米主力合约 C2601 收报 2195 元/吨，涨 1.11%，成交量 823,020 手，持仓量 949,440 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 上周国内玉米市场价格环比上涨 24 元/吨至 2243 元/吨，东 北产区价格整体偏强运行，吉林长春与辽宁沈阳价格分别较前周 上涨 20 元/吨和 40 元/吨；华北市场部分地区价格窄幅上调，部 分企业为吸引到货继续提价促收，山东潍坊寿光金玉米收购价单 周上涨 46 元/吨；港口方面，南方销区港口价格明显跟涨，蛇口 港与钦州港涨幅均在 30-40 元/吨区间；北港市场情绪相对平稳， 价格先涨后稳，锦州港周度微涨 5 元/吨，鲅鱼圈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Despite the overall increase in new - grain production, the grain quality in North China and other regions is severely differentiated. The actual supply pressure may be less than last year. The market favors high - quality corn from Northeast China, and many are stocking up there. New - grain sales are fast, and demand is strong. It is recommended that grain - using enterprises purchase at low prices and moderately increase safety reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The corn main 2601 contract rebounded and was adjusted under pressure near 2190. The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The basis of corn strengthened slightly, and the futures price was at a discount. The starch main 2601 contract was slightly adjusted, and the basis fluctuated and strengthened slightly [5]. Supply - side Situation - **New - grain sales and production**: The national corn output increased to 3 billion tons, 5 million tons higher than the same period last year. As of November 20, the total national grain - sales progress was 27%, 2% faster year - on - year. If the sales progress continues, the expectation of tight supply later will increase [5]. - **Port inventory**: As of November 14, the corn inventory in the northern ports continued to rise to 117 million tons, but was significantly lower than the same period last year. The inventory of domestic and foreign - trade corn in Guangdong Port decreased [6]. - **Grain substitution and imports**: The wheat - corn price difference remained above 200, without substitution advantages. Domestic corn imports remained at a low level, but there was a possibility of replenishing and rotating imported corn [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Feed demand**: Pig farming was in a large - scale loss, but the short - term inventory was difficult to reduce. In the poultry sector, egg - chicken farming continued to lose money. However, feed demand was strong. In October, the national industrial feed output was 29.07 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a 6% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was good. Starch processing enterprises continued to make profits, with a relatively high operating rate. Alcohol processing enterprises were in a large - scale loss, but the operating rate rose again. The operating rates of downstream starch - sugar and paper - making enterprises were relatively stable [7]. External Market Situation The U.S. corn on the external market fluctuated and rebounded. The U.S. government ended the shutdown. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's November supply - demand report slightly reduced the U.S. corn yield per unit and output, but the ending inventory increased slightly, with relatively large supply pressure. The global corn ending inventory decreased slightly, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture report was neutral [6].

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业周报 —— 主动卖压减小引发玉米价格上行 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/11/09 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 今年我国玉米产量有望历史首次触及三亿吨大关，全国玉米收获基本全部结束，玉米供应进入存量消耗，供 需结构逐步向平衡转移，在增产压力表现温和，进口压力明显趋弱及需求稳定预期下，供需结构从长期看有 偏紧预期； 周度期现货价格共振上涨为主，东北产区黑龙江表现稳中偏强，其他地区涨势略强，锦州港收购价格涨势明 显，南港价格跟涨为主，港口库存增长速度缓和；华北黄淮产区现货涨势明显，基层小麦种植受到降雨影响 出现延迟，影响玉米售卖进度，尤其山东地区受到现货上量较少影响，下游企业持续大范围提价收购，涨势 最为明显； 整体来看，本周玉米价格在现货供应宽松周期内出现转强表现，供应收敛是主要驱动因素，下游刚需提价收 购支撑涨价，玉米市场从供应季的供强需弱状态中有所脱离，后期关注随着价格走高，是否刺激现货卖压涌 出现象，尤其是种植主体年底前售粮变现、归还贷款导致的售粮小高峰仍将检验价格韧性，价格或在稳中有 强运行基 ...

Group 1: Market Data - As of November 6, 2025, U.S. corn export inspection volume was 1,424,968 tons, down from a revised 1,712,164 tons the previous week [1] - Cumulative U.S. corn export inspection volume for the current crop year is 13,725,293 tons, compared to 8,281,606 tons during the same period last year [1] - Brazil's corn planting rate for the first crop reached 47.7% as of November 8, up from 42.8% the previous week, but slightly below last year's 48.7% [1] Group 2: Production Forecasts - Brazil's total corn production for the 2025/26 season is projected to reach 143.562 million tons, an increase from the previous estimate of 142.494 million tons, driven by improved first-season crop yields and favorable second-season growth conditions [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - With the U.S. corn harvest progressing, supply pressure is expected to increase, although recent price increases in soybeans and wheat are providing some support to corn prices [2] - Domestic market conditions show that primary production areas are experiencing sales pressure, with farmers and traders actively selling grain, leading to relatively ample market supply [2] - The overall trend for corn prices has been slightly bullish in the short term, with market participants advised to remain observant [2] Group 4: Inventory and Demand - The current situation indicates an oversupply of corn, with ample grain sources in production areas and low inventory levels among feed enterprises and deep processing companies [3] - The profitability of deep processing is improving, and strong wheat prices are providing additional support to corn prices [3]

Core Insights - The global corn supply remains ample as the new season's corn is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a continuous decline in domestic corn prices in China. However, as supply-side pressures are fully digested and demand enters a peak season, corn prices are expected to gradually rise [1] Group 1: Production Data - The International Grains Council forecasts that global corn production for the 2025/2026 season will remain stable at approximately 1.297 billion tons. In China, the corn planting area has increased by 134,000 hectares, a growth of 0.3%, while the yield per hectare has risen by 71 kg, or about 1.1%. Overall, corn production in China has increased by 4.08 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.38% [2] Group 2: Import Trends - Due to trade disputes between China and the U.S. and Canada, imports of grains, including corn, are expected to decrease. Barley imports are projected to fall below 10 million tons, while sorghum imports are estimated to be between 5.5 million and 6.5 million tons. The recent decline in corn prices has diminished the substitution advantage of other grains against corn. For the 2025-2026 period, corn imports are expected to be around 6 million tons, not exceeding the quota limit of 7.2 million tons [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand - Corn consumption in China is primarily driven by feed and deep processing sectors. As the fourth quarter approaches, demand from livestock, particularly broilers and pigs, is expected to rise, supporting corn feed demand. Additionally, after mid-October, profits for domestic starch and deep processing enterprises are anticipated to return to profitability and continue to rise, boosting production willingness. Data shows that by the end of October, the corn consumption of major deep processing enterprises increased by 6.71% week-on-week [4] Group 4: Inventory Stability - Domestic corn inventory is expected to stabilize around 41 million tons after rebounding in the 2022-2023 season. As of the end of October, the inventory of major deep processing enterprises was 2.827 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.82% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.41%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio for the new corn year remains reasonable, which will effectively buffer price fluctuations caused by supply growth. Despite a decrease in land rent, rising labor costs limit the decline in planting costs in major corn-producing regions, keeping planting returns at a relatively low level and constraining the downward space for corn prices [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View New grain has entered the trading phase with fast sales. There is a trend of sourcing grain from Northeast China, which may lead to a shortage of high - quality grain sources later. With strong demand, it is recommended that deep - processing enterprises buy corn on dips, feed enterprises buy high - quality moist grain on dips, and traders make purchases as needed. It is also advisable to buy far - month hedging on the futures market to avoid price increase risks [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Price and Basis - The main corn 2601 contract has stabilized and rebounded. The spot price has risen steadily. The FOB price of corn in Bayuquan has increased from 2140 yuan/ton to around 2165 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of corn at Shekou Port has remained stable at around 2250 yuan/ton. The corn basis has weakened oscillatingly, and the futures price is slightly at a discount [3]. - The main starch 2601 contract has rebounded oscillatingly. The starch price of Weifang Jinyu has remained stable at around 2800 yuan/ton, and the basis has weakened oscillatingly [3]. Supply - side Factors - New grain sales are fast, and the market is sourcing grain from Northeast China. As of November 6, the national grain sales progress was 22%, 3% faster year - on - year. The sales progress in Northeast China was 18% (3% faster y/y), 20% in North China (1% faster y/y), and 42% in Northwest China (4% faster y/y). Faster sales may lead to a tight supply after the Spring Festival [3]. - Channel inventories are rising, and downstream enterprises are starting to purchase. As of October 31, the corn inventory in North Ports was 102.1 tons and continued to rise, with a weekly shipment volume of 71.6 tons remaining high. The domestic - trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port stopped falling and rebounded to 42.5 tons, while the foreign - trade corn inventory decreased to 31.7 tons. As of November 7, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 279.5 tons, slightly down but generally rising, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 24.88 days, stopping the decline and starting to rise [3]. - There is a lack of grain substitution, and imports remain low. The price difference between wheat and corn has widened to over 200, eliminating the substitution advantage. Domestic corn imports remain at a low level. Although there has been a new China - US trade negotiation and mutual tax cuts, a 10% basic tariff remains, and the agreement mainly involves the import of tens of millions of tons of US soybeans, with no mention of corn. It is expected that corn imports will remain low in the short term [4]. Demand - side Factors - Feed demand is strong. Pig prices have rebounded from the low level, and the loss in pig farming has narrowed. As of October 31, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 179.72 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 89.3 yuan per head, both showing a reduction in losses. The adjustment of the productive sow capacity is slow. In September, the national productive sow inventory was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month, still far from the regulatory target. Market pig retention and secondary fattening have increased. At the end of the third quarter, the live - pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, egg prices have rebounded, and egg - chicken farming is slightly in the red. Chicken - chick sales have decreased, and the culling of old chickens has increased. The inventory of laying hens in October decreased slightly, but the capacity adjustment is still slow [5]. - The demand of deep - processing enterprises is positive. Starch processing enterprises have been continuously profitable, and the operating rate has increased. As of November 7, the operating rate of starch processing enterprises was 62.77% and continued to rise, and the starch inventory increased month - on - month. Alcohol processing enterprises have suffered large losses again, but the operating rate has remained high at 66.79%. The operating rate of downstream starch - sugar enterprises has stabilized, and the operating rate of paper - making enterprises has increased [5]. International Market - The US corn in the overseas market has rebounded oscillatingly. The US government shutdown continues, but the US Department of Agriculture may release a new supply - demand report. The US corn harvest is almost over, with high yield pressure. Affected by China - US trade negotiations and tax cuts, US corn has been boosted, but it is unclear whether China will import US corn [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Date: November 07, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After the impact of the new season's listing in October, the spot price showed resilience and fluctuated slightly stronger in November. Although the spot selling pressure remained at a high level, the price showed signs of bottom consolidation under the influence of state reserve purchases, deep - processing and feed enterprises' restocking at low prices, and the rise of surrounding agricultural product prices. Downstream enterprises are advised to manage their long - term procurement to avoid the risk of increased procurement costs later [2]. - On the futures side, the corn futures price broke through upwards, recovering the decline in October. The main 01 contract closed at 2154 yuan, with increased trading volume and significantly increased open interest. The registered warrants remained unchanged at 66,351 lots. The starch price also rose, with the main 01 contract closing at 2469 yuan, increased trading volume, and slightly increased open interest. The strong sales in the starch market led to continuous inventory reduction, and the futures price followed the corn to strengthen, with the price spread between starch and corn likely to widen further [2]. - Although the overall corn price has stopped falling and stabilized, it is still weaker than other agricultural products. Currently, the price shows resilience, and short - term selling pressure is the core factor determining the price [2]. - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower. The harvest and listing of the new season's corn is the core factor suppressing the futures price. In addition, the good planting conditions for South American corn and the sharp decline of surrounding soybeans and wheat also brought pressure [2]. Summary by Section Core Contradictions - Spot price: After the October shock, it showed resilience and narrow - range upward fluctuations in November. Selling pressure is high, but state reserve purchases, enterprise restocking, and rising surrounding agricultural product prices support the price to show bottom - consolidation signs [2]. - Futures price: Corn futures broke through upwards, recovering the October decline. Starch futures followed the upward trend, and the price spread may widen [2]. - Overall situation: Corn price is stable but weaker than other agricultural products. Short - term selling pressure is the key price - determining factor [2]. - International market: CBOT corn futures closed sharply lower due to new - season harvest, good South American planting conditions, and the decline of surrounding products [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure is more dispersed, reducing the urgency of grain sales and alleviating price pressure [3]. - State reserve purchases in the Northeast production area are significantly supporting prices, limiting price declines [3]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, affecting the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current second - fattening entry support the feed demand at a good level [4]. - In the first half of November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure may be released in a concentrated manner, limiting the continuous upward momentum of prices [4]. - The sharp decline of overnight foreign agricultural products may affect the upward trend of corn [4]. Price Forecast - Corn price range (monthly): 2050 - 2200 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.43% and a volatility percentile of 56.1% [5]. - Starch price range (monthly): 2350 - 2550 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.00% and a volatility percentile of 37.89% [5]. Price and Basis Data - Spot price: For corn, Jinzhou Port is 2155 yuan (-10 yuan), Shekou Port is 2250 yuan (unchanged), and Harbin is 2010 yuan (unchanged). For corn starch, Shandong is 2750 yuan (unchanged), Jilin is 2550 yuan (unchanged), and Heilongjiang is 2450 yuan (unchanged) [5]. - Basis: Jinzhou Port main - continuous basis for corn is 1 yuan (-30 yuan), and Shandong main - continuous basis for corn starch is 281 yuan (-18 yuan) [5]. - Futures price: Corn futures prices generally increased on November 6, 2025, with the 11 - contract rising 28 yuan (1.32%), the 01 - contract rising 20 yuan (0.94%), etc. Corn starch futures prices also increased, with the 11 - contract unchanged, the 01 - contract rising 18 yuan (0.73%), etc. The wheat average price decreased by 3 yuan (-0.12%) [6]. International Market Data - CBOT corn main - continuous contract price is 428.75 cents per bushel, down 6.25 cents (-1.44%). COBT soybean main - continuous contract price is 1108 cents per bushel, down 26.5 cents (-2.34%). CBOT wheat main - continuous contract price is 536 cents per bushel, down 18 cents (-3.25%) [26]. - The duty - paid price in the US Gulf is 2164.54 yuan, up 10.57 yuan (0.49%), with an import profit of 85.46 yuan. The duty - paid price in the US West is 2048.48 yuan, up 10.63 yuan (0.52%), with an import profit of 201.52 yuan [26].

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: November 05, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - After entering November, the selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas began to weaken. In North China, the selling pressure was released after the "fire - sale" of moist corn. In Northeast China, after the peak of centralized harvest and listing, the selling pressure eased with the drop in temperature. The overall grass - roots in the producing areas were more reluctant to sell, and the purchasing end raised prices to increase purchases, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the resilience of corn prices has strengthened, and the subsequent price pressure has eased as it turns into a phased release of selling pressure. On Tuesday, the upward trend of the corn futures market paused. The main 01 contract closed at 2135 yuan, with significantly reduced trading volume, slightly increased open interest, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 66,351 lots. Starch futures followed corn and closed lower. The main 01 contract closed at 2444 yuan, with decreased trading volume and slightly reduced open interest. On Tuesday, CBOT corn futures closed lower following the decline of soybeans. StoneX raised its forecast of US corn yield per acre by 10 bushels to 186.0 bushels per acre, which weighed on prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Core Contradictions - The selling pressure of moist corn in domestic corn - producing areas has weakened, and the grass - roots are reluctant to sell. The purchasing end raises prices, leading to a short - term rebound in corn prices. After the first peak of selling pressure of new grain listing, the price pressure eases. The corn and starch futures markets closed lower on Tuesday, and CBOT corn futures also declined [2]. Bullish Factors - The selling pressure has become more dispersed, and the urgency to sell grain has decreased, alleviating price pressure. The state - reserve purchase in Northeast China has significantly supported prices, limiting price declines. The unconfirmed news of wheat auctions in November has increased the bullish sentiment in the market [5]. Bearish Factors - The weak operation of hog prices and the industry's capacity adjustment may affect the long - term feed demand for corn. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs still support the feed demand at a relatively good level. From mid - to early November, the late - harvested corn will still be harvested and listed, and the selling pressure needs to be released in a phased and concentrated manner, which restricts the continuous upward momentum of prices. Chinese importers have inquired about wheat cargoes and plan to load them from the end of this year to February next year. The resumption of grain imports will increase the pressure on domestic corn, and the purchase volume should be monitored [3]. Price Range Forecast | Commodity | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility | Volatility Percentile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn | 2050 - 2200 | 9.43% | 54.6% | | Starch | 2350 - 2550 | 10.64% | 42.31% | [3] Spot Price and Main - Contract Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2165 | 0 | Shandong | 2750 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2250 | 0 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2010 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2450 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - Contract Basis | 30 | 21 | Shandong Main - Contract Basis | 306 | 9 | [3] Futures Market Prices - Specific price data for different contracts of corn and corn starch on November 03 and 04, 2025, are provided, including prices, changes, and change rates. For example, the corn 11 contract closed at 2129 yuan on November 03 and 2120 yuan on November 04, with a change of - 9 yuan and a change rate of - 0.42% [6]. U.S. Corn Price and Import Profit | | Price | Daily Change | Increase | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - Contract | 430.75 | - 4 | - 0.92% | | | COBT Soybean Main - Contract | 1120.25 | - 14.25 | - 1.26% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - Contract | 550 | 5.25 | 0.96% | | | U.S. Gulf Port CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2151.26 | 0.92 | 0.04% | 98.74 | | U.S. West Coast CIF Duty - Paid Price | 2035.3 | 0.87 | 0.04% | 214.7 | [30]