南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月10日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 四季度处于新季玉米集中供应期，10月份收获以及集中上市压力较大，供需结构阶段性失衡导致价格易跌难 涨，新季玉米价格高开后一路走低； 连盘玉米期货震荡下跌运行，继续消化新季上市带来的供应压力，价格重心有进一步下移可能，关注因上量 冲击造成价格超跌带来的底部机会； CBOT玉米期价低位盘整，等待美国农业部10月供需报告的进一步指引； 【利多因素】 1、玉米及谷物进口数量维持低水平，为中期玉米供需结构改善提供基础； 4、10月7日，农业农村部召开会议，调度秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种情况。强调全力应对黄淮海地区持续连阴雨 天气影响，切实抓好秋粮抢收抢烘和秋冬种工作，及时协调解决基层困难，全力以赴做好黄淮海地区"三秋"生 产工作。 【利空因素】 1、生猪产业处于产能调控过程中，或中期影响玉米饲用需求； 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | 玉米 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | 玉米淀粉 | 价格&基差 | 今日涨跌 | | -- ...

不过，国元期货油脂油料研究员刘金鹭认为，养殖端和深加工企业对玉米的需求存在"天花板"。一方 面，养殖端受能繁母猪去产能政策影响，加上当前养殖利润处于亏损状态，饲料厂备货意愿谨慎；另一 方面，小麦对玉米的替代效应分流了部分饲料需求。深加工企业需求将维持弱复苏态势，主要依赖酒精 和淀粉糖的结构性拉动，但整体消费量较去年同期仍将减少。此外，四季度是传统消费旺季，政府可能 通过投放储备来调节市场供需，避免价格过度波动。这意味着饲料企业在价格跌至心理价位时，补库意 愿将显著增强，形成需求"托底效应"。 据记者了解，在旧作玉米库存见底与种植成本上升的双重影响下，新作玉米开秤价同比有所提高。近期 东北地区给出的开秤价基本上在0.82～0.87元/斤。值得注意的是，近期玉米现货与期货价格均高开低 走。 眼下，正值秋粮收获季，大型玉米收割机正穿梭在田间地头，摘棒、剥皮、秸秆粉碎等工序一气呵成。 据期货日报记者了解，新粮陆续入库的同时，陈粮也消化顺畅。据上海钢联（300226）数据，截至9月 24日，全国12个地区96家主要玉米加工企业玉米库存约212万吨，同比下降约20%；截至9月25日，饲料 企业玉米库存可用天数约26天，同 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货玉米季报 2025 年 09 月 26 日 主要结论 国际市场来看，继续南美巴西、阿根廷增产之后，北半球的美国、乌克兰产 量预估再次增加，若最终产量兑现，全球玉米市场仍将维持相对宽松的环境，国 际玉米价格将延续低位运行。国内方面，目前产情总体较好，预计产量较上年有 一定增长，且成本下降，未来上市压力较大。旧作来说，尽管粮源较少，但新旧 衔接问题不大，持粮商出货积极性较高。需求端来看，近期小麦与玉米价差有所 修复，后期饲料企业或调回玉米使用比例。但在养殖行业利润低迷且政策引导去 产能的预期下，其大幅增加库存动力有限。深加工方面，整体经济增长疲软、外 部贸易环境复杂、居民收入增速放缓等多重不利因素压制，终端消费表现较差， 深加工利润不佳，行业开机率下降，深加工需求难觅亮点。总体来看，短期旧作 余粮偏紧，对现货及近端合约有一定支撑，但在新上市压力将近背景下，整体玉 米市场中期仍然是处于承压寻底阶段。不过，考虑到去年贸易商囤粮盈利较好， 25/26 年新玉米上市后贸易商逢低抄底意愿或有提升，从而限制玉米继续下跌空 间。操作上，偏弱震荡对待。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2 ...

据对全国500个县集贸市场和采集点的监测，9月第3周（采集日为9月18日），全国玉米平均价格2.49 元/公斤，与前一周持平，同比下跌0.4%。主产区东北三省玉米价格2.32元/公斤，比前一周下跌0.4%。 （9月22日）今日全国玉米价格一览表 西南期货研报：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，陈粮较为紧俏，港口库存快速回归，库存 压力减退，基差偏强。1-7月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间；中储粮玉 米网拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，北方主产区玉米逐步开始收获，丰产预期较强，成本或下修， 玉米价格上方或有一定压力，或观望为宜。 【市场资讯】 9月22日，大商所玉米期货仓单30320手，环比上个交易日减少338手。 美国干旱监测报告显示，截至9月16日，玉米处于干旱区的比例为25%，一周前13%，去年同期26%。 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种:黄玉米 ;等级:3 ;水分:14% ; | 2400元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省/深圳市 | 广东蛇口港市场 | | 品种:黄玉米 ; ...

进口玉米拍卖成交情况也能从一定程度上验证饲用玉米需求的增加。进入9月份，进口玉米持续拍卖， 成交率明显回升。截至9月12日，进口玉米拍卖共进行22期，拍卖总量654万吨，成交量157万吨，平均 成交率24%。进入9月份，进口玉米拍卖量平均每期19.17万吨，环比8月降幅2.04%。但成交率升至 34%，较8月末最低成交率8%提高26个百分点。这既能说明市场上陈粮供应减少，也能说明饲料需求增 加。（备注：进口玉米拍卖的主要消费领域是饲料企业，深加工企业倾向于使用合同粮、消耗库存或采 购新粮） 综上所述，9-10月份东北陈粮供应收紧，且新粮有一定的后熟期，下游存在刚需，预计新粮集中上市前 东北优质养殖粮价格较坚挺，价格涨幅或在40-50元／吨，市场仍需轮换粮、进口玉米拍卖进行有效补 充。 分析其原因，虽然从需求端来看，养殖环节的刚需支撑东北及全国玉米均价上涨，但东北陈粮库存持续 减少，且明显低于去年同期水平，则是导致东北玉米价格强于全国市场平均表现的根本原因。 由于2024/25季东北玉米售粮进度整体表现为前快后慢的特点，进入9月份，贸易环节陈粮库存持续减 少，并降至近五年同期的较低水平。虽然8-9月份南方产区及 ...

Group 1 - The main corn futures contract experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2187.00 yuan, with a current price of 2181.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.02% [1] - Donghai Futures indicates that corn prices have entered a relatively undervalued range, with the new season's pricing weight increasing and the C2511 contract entering last year's pricing range of 2100-2200 yuan/ton [2] - Southwest Futures notes that there may be upward pressure on corn prices, as domestic supply and demand are tending towards balance, and the expectation of a strong new season yield may lead to cost adjustments [3] Group 2 - Green Dahan Futures suggests that short-term corn spot prices are expected to remain weak and stable, with sufficient supply due to ongoing imports and local spring corn entering the market [4] - The overall sentiment in the corn market is cautious, with a focus on policy direction and the impact of planting costs on future pricing [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply of corn in Northeast China is slightly loose due to continuous replenishment of rotation grain and active outflow from traders, while demand remains at a seasonal low, leading to a gradual decline in market prices [1][3][5] - As of August 22, the average price of corn in the Northeast market dropped from 2252 yuan/ton to 2230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% [1] - The expected trend for corn prices in early September is downward, with a projected decline of around 20 yuan/ton, as the demand for feed corn is unlikely to increase significantly [7] Group 2 - The feed production has not shown seasonal growth characteristics, with only two years in the past five showing an increase in September feed production, primarily due to the demand not recovering to normal levels [3][5] - The total livestock population in August was 2.382 billion, a decrease of 0.78% from July, with significant declines in the populations of broiler chickens and pigs [5] - The expected livestock population in September is projected to decrease to 2.362 billion, with a decline in broiler chickens and laying hens, while the pig population is expected to increase by 2.02% [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The corn purchasing prices for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China have been rising, but the market outlook suggests a downward pressure on corn prices due to limited new corn procurement and the upcoming new harvest in mid-September [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In early August, the average corn purchasing price for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China reached its highest point of the year at 2242 yuan/ton, which is slightly higher than July's average by 2 yuan/ton but lower than last year's August average by 31.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.39% [1]. - The overall corn prices have increased this year, putting significant pressure on deep processing enterprises [3]. Group 2: Purchasing Volume - From January to June, the monthly corn purchasing volume for Northeast deep processing enterprises showed a downward trend, with a rebound in July where the total purchasing volume reached 960,000 tons, a 16% increase month-on-month but a 7% decrease year-on-year [3]. - The total corn purchasing volume from January to July was approximately 8.83 million tons, representing a 24% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of early August, the average corn inventory days for deep processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces was about 39 days, with limited new corn procurement expected before the new harvest [5]. - The operating load of major deep processing industries showed a declining trend in July, with a month-on-month decrease of 2 to 13 percentage points [5]. - Seasonal demand for corn products like starch and lysine is expected to recover slightly in late August due to reduced high temperatures and the back-to-school season, but new corn demand is unlikely to see significant increases [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that from August to September, deep processing enterprises in Northeast China will primarily rely on contract grain and inventory, with limited new corn demand, leading to a high probability of downward pressure on corn prices [6]. - It is anticipated that the mainstream corn prices in Northeast China will decline by 50-100 yuan/ton from mid-August to mid-September due to the increasing supply from other regions and the narrowing sales window for old grain [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The corn market is in a stage of oscillatory decline, and the later price center is expected to decline. The c2509 contract is affected by multiple negative factors such as high production, sufficient supply from imported corn, substitution by wheat and other grains, high new - crop planting area, and expected good yield. The new - crop's minimum planting cost on the futures market is about 2,000 yuan/ton, and the cost center continues to shift down [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Domestic Corn Supply - The corn price continues to oscillate weakly, and the new - crop corn is growing well. The current main variable in future supply is the weather during the growing period, especially rainfall. This week, the national corn market continued to be weak, with both futures and spot prices falling significantly. Different regions have different supply and demand situations. The new - crop production expectation and cost center shift down drive the futures price down [7][8]. Import - The scale of corn imports has significantly decreased. In June 2025, the total corn import volume was 156,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.99% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.21 tons. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 785,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.88%. The estimated import volume for the 2024/25 period is 5 million tons, lower than 23.41 million tons in the 2023/24 period [16][17]. Substitutes - Feed enterprises are purchasing wheat to replace corn, and the substitution pressure from imported substitutes is decreasing. The main domestic substitutes are wheat and millet, and the imported substitutes are mainly imported sorghum and barley. The wheat market is oscillating, and the current corn - wheat price difference in North China is in the substitutable range, so the substitution pressure on corn is high. In June 2025, the import volume of barley and sorghum decreased year - on - year, reducing the substitution pressure [26][28]. Demand Feed and Breeding - The feed demand in the breeding industry is rigid, but the breeding profit is generally average. In June 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.67 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The inventory of breeding sows, parent - stock white - feather broilers, and egg - laying chicken seedlings is at a high level, indicating a rigid feed demand. However, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit is at a low level, the broiler breeding profit is seasonally high, and the egg - laying chicken breeding loss has expanded [32][34]. Deep - processing - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang has risen significantly, but the deep - processing production profit is severely in the red. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises nationwide has recovered to a neutral level, about 54.8%. The production of corn starch has also increased, but the downstream提货 volume is relatively low. The production profit of corn starch is severely in the red, and the profit of corn alcohol enterprises is still in the red [54][55]. Inventory Trade Channel Corn Inventory - The inventory in trade channels and downstream is gradually decreasing, and the starch inventory is significantly high. As of August 1, the inventory in the four northern ports continued to decline, with the total inventory dropping to about 1.9 million tons. The domestic trade inventory in southern ports fluctuated downward. The inventory of feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises reached a new high in the past eight years, about 1.32 million tons [78][80]. Feed Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of feed enterprises continues to decrease, with the available inventory days at around 30 days, and the inventory in North China and South China is relatively high [79]. Deep - processing Enterprises' Corn Inventory - The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased seasonally, with the national inventory at about 3.64 million tons, at a neutral level [79]. Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis and spread of corn and starch, including the basis of different contracts in Jinzhou Port and Jilin area, and the spread between different contracts of corn and starch [114][124]. Corn Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On August 7, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [132].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Corn System Data Daily Report" and is issued by the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute on August 8, 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The southern port's grain inventory is being depleted slowly, downstream demand support is insufficient, and the warehouse receipt pressure is high. Although the supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, the time for the 09 contract is limited. Due to the harvest pressure of new - season corn and the reduction in planting costs, the 11 and 01 contracts of corn are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6] Group 4: Price and Market Data Spot Prices - Corn spot prices vary by region. For example, the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price is 2300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Harbin price in Heilongjiang Province is 2195 yuan/ton, unchanged. Among them, the price in Hebei Province decreased by 10 yuan [5] - Corn starch spot prices are 2750 yuan/ton in Jilin Province and 2434 yuan/ton in Henan Province, both unchanged [5] - Wheat spot prices are 2435 yuan/ton in Anhui Province, down 1 yuan, and 2434 yuan/ton in Jiangsu Province, unchanged [5] Futures Prices - The closing price of the corn main contract is 2267 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the corn starch main contract is 2618 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] International Data - The closing price of US corn is 402.00 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2231.87 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported US corn is 198.13 yuan/ton. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.18 [5] Spread Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490 [5] Inventory Data - North port corn inventory is 210.6 tons, Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 88.2 tons, and foreign - trade corn inventory is 0.7 tons. Northeast deep - processing corn inventory is 215.9 tons, and North China deep - processing corn inventory is 114.9 tons [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - The remaining grain is in short supply. Northeast grain has the demand for external transportation, and the volumes of grain collection and shipment at the north port have declined. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decrease, and the estimated port collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area has no obvious change, the new - season corn is growing well, and the supply of imported grains is expected to decrease this year due to continuous policy restrictions [5] Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short term, supporting the feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the far - month. The price difference between wheat and corn is at a low level, feed mills are increasing their wheat purchases, the wheat substitution ratio is increasing, and they are maintaining a cautious attitude towards corn purchases. The deep - processing downstream is in a loss, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, and the deep - processing demand is shrinking [5] Inventory - The north port inventory has been depleted to a low level, the southern port grain inventory is being depleted slowly, the feed enterprise inventory continues to decline, and the deep - processing corn inventory has declined this week [5]